Guys, the demerger is almost a 100% go la, IMO. Extracts from a good read i found yest! Share with u guys:

3 conditions need to be fulfilled.

1. Sembcorp shareholders need to vote with a simple majority (> 50%) required. I guess this will be passed.
2. On Sembcorp marine front, shareholders are required to vote to approve the rights issue. Again a simple majority of 50% is required. Since SCI has provided an irrevocable undertaking to vote in favor, this will again be a pass.
3. Lastly, there is a whitewash resolution since Temasek&rsquo s stake in Sembcorp marine could pass 30%, by SGX mandate, Temasek hence needs to offer a mandatory takeover. A whitewash resolution will need to be passed to absolve the need for Temasek to takeover Sembcorp Marine. In this instance, since Sembcorp Industries is abstaining from voting, there is a possibility that there will not be > 50% of the vote garnered.

Sembcorp marine&rsquo s existing shareholder might not want to approve the huge dilution that comes with the rights issue. Keeping the status quo might ultimately force Temasek to make a direct and higher offer for the existing stakes vs. the current proposal.

Note that by forking out &ldquo just&rdquo S$0.6bn, Temasek will have 58% of Sembcorp Marine. This will imply that the full 100% stake of Sembcorp Marine will be worth just S$1bn vs. the last close market cap of c.S$1.8bn.

Is this a great deal for Temasek? Well, if you believe that Sembcorp Marine might go into receivership one day, then forking out any amount > $0 might not be a good deal. However, given the &ldquo need&rdquo for Temasek to save one of our most iconic shipyards in Singapore, then I would think its probably a good deal on the part of Temasek to gain 58% ownership status with just a direct cost of S$0.6bn.