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jcbull Senior	10-Jul-2016 12:17        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In other words, I' m not selling what I have now..if really the China funds coming, this is going to fly again..Gold price as we all know won' t stay high forever..so at some point, we still need to exit which is the most important part of investment.  jcbull      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:53) Posted: Again, if one is to look at the chart or in the market, of the last 17 trading days, there are only 2 black candles..The buy up is there..will there be enough shares in the market to sell?  jcbull      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:49) Posted: The run up was fast as it was a severly undervalued stock. The PE ratio of other goldmine is over 26. What is the PE ratio of CNMC? less than 10. There are about 407M shares. Top 5 stake holders own about 59%, so, balance about 160M shares in the market. The counters have run up many days with transaction vol of 20-40M。 In no times, there isn' t going to have enough share to sell..look at the market depth..not many shares left..
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jcbull Senior	10-Jul-2016 12:09        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When it dropped from 27 cents to 17 cents, Goldman Sachs said Gold will drop to $800. Main stream headlines were negative about Gold price. There was practically no interests in this counter and the vol is merely a 200-300 lots or nil vol each day. Broker house even impose a limit of $30K as it regards the counter as illiquidate. Who would know this counter exisits..For those who have the faith in Gold, huat big with this counter..At current price, I' m still holding it. I sold some at 33-35. Trying to buy back, has become a challenge. Still vested because of (1) Pulai Mines   and (2) uptrend in Gold Price, BREXIT impacts are unfolding.. SososoTired      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:40) Posted: Just to clarify, CNMC is a poor target to short. A net cash company, rising profitability. 2Q looks like will be a strong quarter with gold prices rising. I don' t think people are shorting CNMC -> the expected profit is too low, except maybe for those who brave brave say price will drop.  Its just that I felt CNMC would have been a stronger buy at 20 cents or 30 cents when gold was around 1,100 to 1,200. But back then very little attention on CNMC. Now 50/60 cents, a lot of attention...and a major part of some arguments here has been about gold price. Why bet on gold price when a few months ago CNMC was a much more attractive option with US$20-US$30m cash on balance sheet? Which scenario is easier to analyze? Directon of gold price or the audited cash balance in the balance sheet whose owners are Singaporeans and cannot just take the cash and run?
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jcbull Senior	10-Jul-2016 11:59        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Please DOYDD.
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jcbull Senior	10-Jul-2016 11:53        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Again, if one is to look at the chart or in the market, of the last 17 trading days, there are only 2 black candles..The buy up is there..will there be enough shares in the market to sell?  jcbull      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:49) Posted: The run up was fast as it was a severly undervalued stock. The PE ratio of other goldmine is over 26. What is the PE ratio of CNMC? less than 10. There are about 407M shares. Top 5 stake holders own about 59%, so, balance about 160M shares in the market. The counters have run up many days with transaction vol of 20-40M。 In no times, there isn' t going to have enough share to sell..look at the market depth..not many shares left.. jcbull      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:32) Posted: I don' t think Monday will be profit taking when Gold rebounded from 1340 to 1367..The interests in Gold is very strong and the US economic data has no bearing to BREXIT crisis. The reason for Yellen not to increase rate is due to BREXIT which the impacts have yet to be felt..events are unfolding slowing..now several property funds have stopped to isse the payout..CNMC, if you are in the market doing the buy and sell, you will know the underlying strength. My take is, it will be a white candle on Monday.
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jcbull Senior	10-Jul-2016 11:49        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The run up was fast as it was a severly undervalued stock. The PE ratio of other goldmine is over 26. What is the PE ratio of CNMC? less than 10. There are about 407M shares. Top 5 stake holders own about 59%, so, balance about 160M shares in the market. The counters have run up many days with transaction vol of 20-40M。 In no times, there isn' t going to have enough share to sell..look at the market depth..not many shares left.. jcbull      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:32) Posted: I don' t think Monday will be profit taking when Gold rebounded from 1340 to 1367..The interests in Gold is very strong and the US economic data has no bearing to BREXIT crisis. The reason for Yellen not to increase rate is due to BREXIT which the impacts have yet to be felt..events are unfolding slowing..now several property funds have stopped to isse the payout..CNMC, if you are in the market doing the buy and sell, you will know the underlying strength. My take is, it will be a white candle on Monday. explosive2013      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:18) Posted: Run up too fast, purely speculation, no fundamental support. Profit taking on monday. Expected to drop to 0.450 low and stablize at 0.50 level.
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SososoTired Member	10-Jul-2016 11:40        SososoTired About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just to clarify, CNMC is a poor target to short. A net cash company, rising profitability. 2Q looks like will be a strong quarter with gold prices rising. I don' t think people are shorting CNMC -> the expected profit is too low, except maybe for those who brave brave say price will drop.  Its just that I felt CNMC would have been a stronger buy at 20 cents or 30 cents when gold was around 1,100 to 1,200. But back then very little attention on CNMC. Now 50/60 cents, a lot of attention...and a major part of some arguments here has been about gold price. Why bet on gold price when a few months ago CNMC was a much more attractive option with US$20-US$30m cash on balance sheet? Which scenario is easier to analyze? Directon of gold price or the audited cash balance in the balance sheet whose owners are Singaporeans and cannot just take the cash and run?
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jcbull Senior	10-Jul-2016 11:32        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I don' t think Monday will be profit taking when Gold rebounded from 1340 to 1367..The interests in Gold is very strong and the US economic data has no bearing to BREXIT crisis. The reason for Yellen not to increase rate is due to BREXIT which the impacts have yet to be felt..events are unfolding slowing..now several property funds have stopped to isse the payout..CNMC, if you are in the market doing the buy and sell, you will know the underlying strength. My take is, it will be a white candle on Monday. explosive2013      ( Date: 10-Jul-2016 11:18) Posted: Run up too fast, purely speculation, no fundamental support. Profit taking on monday. Expected to drop to 0.450 low and stablize at 0.50 level.
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jcbull Senior	10-Jul-2016 11:25        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	My thought is that it depends on the development in the new Gold mines investment, Pulai Mines. Current Sokor project would have reached its peak with the 2nd production line in place and current gold reserves of 618K oz. As Pulai is just the adjacent to Sokor, it is likely to bear the similar geographical features as Sokor. However, I' m not sure why company adopted  alluvial mining which may not be efficient. I believe CNMC will seek relevant experts from China on the best method to extract Gold in Pulai. They had partnered China National Gold Group for technical assistance in the Sokor Project. As such, I look forward for the signing of agreement to buy 51% stake. The next peak will be when Pulai is in full production capacity. For the time being, CNMC price will be driven by gold price..    http://cnmc.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20130128_002321_5TP_6F2572A06D21F11E48257B0000273F5C.2.pdf About China National Gold Group Corporation China Gold is China&rsquo s largest gold producer and a state-owned enterprise. With its headquarters located in Beijing, China Gold has 57 subsidiaries, including 2 listed companies, namely Zhongjin Gold Corporation Limited which is listed on the domestic A-share market in China and China Gold International Resources Corp. Ltd which is dual listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited. China Gold specialises in the extraction of non-ferrous metals which include, amongst others, gold, silver and copper. Its operations span from geological prospection, mine exploitation, mineral processing and smelting to product refining, marketing, scientific research, engineering design and construction. Furthering Production China Gold will assign a qualified and experienced mine superintendent, mining engineers, production engineers specialising in gold heap leaching operation, as well as mine laboratory technicians to CNMC&rsquo s Sokor Gold Project located in Kelantan State of Malaysia. The China Gold team, with its wealth of experience, will add-on and complement CNMC&rsquo s current on-site production team to manage, plan, design, construct, and oversee CNMC&rsquo s gold production expansion program for a one year period beginning from 1 March 2013 to 28 February 2014. Commenting on this latest development, Mr Chris Lim, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer of CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited remarked: &ldquo We are very pleased to enter into this technical partnership with China Gold. This represents a ground-breaking level of business relations between the two companies as our Group will greatly benefit from their extensive mining experience and will complement our effort to further our production expansion program in the next 12 months.&rdquo Mr Sun Fa Jun, General Manager of China Gold Guizhou Jinxing Gold Mining Industry Co., Ltd also added: &ldquo CNMC Goldmine&rsquo s Sokor project has immense potential both in terms of gold production as well as its resources and reserves. We are confident that with the addition of our technical inputs, we are able to uplift the total output beyond CNMC&rsquo s current plan. Additionally, we hope to be able to work with CNMC beyond the current Sokor project.&rdquo
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explosive2013 Master	10-Jul-2016 11:18        explosive2013 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Run up too fast, purely speculation, no fundamental support. Profit taking on monday. Expected to drop to 0.450 low and stablize at 0.50 level.
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FreedomAngelz Veteran	10-Jul-2016 09:54        FreedomAngelz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Can anyone tell what is the long term effects of brexit on the global economy? Bad for Europe. Good for Britain. There will be short term impact. Expect UK to go to 0% interest rates and launch QE to stabilise its economy. As for Europe, they are in disarray as there are fears on more referendum from other EU member, theirs banks are in troubles due to bad debt and low interest retes, the immigration crisis will cause fear due to ISIS member infiltraing.  What is a fair value for CNMC then in the long run? I`m expecting CNMC to be doing really well for the next 2-3 years as it reach its peak. Value will still be largely depends on gold price, gold production & reserves and future acquisition. What we know is that CNMC is now a heavily trade stocks in SGX which will help draw more investors into the company.
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Newbie2223 Member	10-Jul-2016 09:10        Newbie2223 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I reckoned those standing on the sidelines should now be aware that there are 2 camps here basically. One are those whom are long on gold and the other whom are opportunists. The second grp of people are those whom believe in making use of the forum to spread fear to induce selling so that they can short to earn some quick bucks but let' s look at this objectively and squarely. Can anyone tell what is the long term effects of brexit on the global economy? I guess not even those whom are involved themselves in the UK are aware. Why are so many banks and houses long on gold? Looking at historical trending, gold has always been largely acquired during times of uncertainty as a safe haven as a hedge against uncertainty. What is a fair value for CNMC then in the long run? It' s anyone' s guess but look at long term profitability and the potential of the industry vis a vis the so called risks involved in gold mining and you will have at the answer yourself.
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zandlery Supreme	10-Jul-2016 00:22        zandlery About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	if you talking bout me....sorry..I' m not a clone. Can' t two guy agree on something and without immediate suspect of been cloned..... Seriously.....haha...come on guys...haha.......   destinykraze      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 23:29) Posted: Wow, these clone accounts needs to be banned.
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SososoTired Member	10-Jul-2016 00:04        SososoTired About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Haha. Notice i didnt mention anything about anchor and wilton.
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$warrior Master	09-Jul-2016 23:32        $warrior About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks for the input - my sentiments too on this counter.....  SososoTired      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 21:48) Posted: Just sharing my immediate thought of this article... this type of generic articles are easy to read. But in reality, they tell you nothing at all. No spreadsheets, no tables, no forecasts, no target price.  " High production costs, mining accidents, poor mine selections, debt-crippled balance sheets" --> I wonder if Motly has looked at the three companies that they have cited one by one and in detail. These comments by Motley have merely highlighted some of the generic risks that do not apply to CNMC. CNMC is net cash and has low production cost. Its share price going up recently is a part of the value discovery process.    $warrior      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 20:20) Posted: Now here is another viewpoint from The Motley Fool .....not that I   take their view as gospel truth.....just for info only.       Are You Aware Of The Risks With These Gold Mining Stocks? - Motley Fool Earlier this morning, the Business Times had published an article by Anita Gabriel on three gold mining stocks that are listed on the Catalist board, namely,  CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd (SGX: 5TP), Anchor Resources Ltd (SGX: 43E), and Wilton Resources Corporation Ltd (SGX: 5F7). The article had touched on the trio&rsquo s strong share price gains yesterday   CNMC Goldmine, Anchor Resources, and Wilton Resources had climbed by  16.2%, 16.7%, and 3.75%, respectively. Gabriel had written that the three stocks &ldquo have been given a fresh impetus of late thanks to a gold rally as investors zoom in on safe-haven assets amid renewed &ldquo Brexit&rdquo anxiety.&rdquo Indeed, stock market participants have been giving the three stocks plenty of love in recent times. Over the past month,  CNMC Goldmine&rsquo s shares have nearly doubled in price, Anchor Resources&rsquo stock price has surged by 35%, and Wilton Resources&rsquo shares have put on 40%. In the same timeframe, the price of gold has climbed by around 10%. For me, all the data points above serve to highlight the strong possibility that some investors are rushing into the three aforementioned stocks only because they think that the price of gold will continue to rise. I think such investors are playing a very dangerous game for two reasons. First, trying to guess the movement of commodity prices &ndash both over the short- and long-term &ndash is a very tough thing to do. Here&rsquo s a good example. In 2014, The Washington Post carried an article on oil, stating (emphasis mine): &ldquo Just 15 years ago, most oil analysts predicted that crude would stabilize around [US]$20 a barrel for the foreseeable future, arguing that this was the magic price the Saudis &mdash and OPEC &mdash would target. The 2000s proved that spectacularly wrong: Oil prices rose nearly 15-fold in less than 10 years while Saudi Arabia did little to respond.&rdquo Second, even if we assume we can correctly guess that the price of gold would rise strongly a year, five years, or even 10 years from now, that does not mean that gold-mining stocks would automatically be great investments. History has good lessons here. In the 10 years ended September 2015, the price of gold had climbed by nearly 10% per year in Australian-dollar terms. But, the S& P / ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index had fallen by around 4% annually over the same period. The index is made up of the stocks of small Australian gold miners. A Fool&rsquo s take It&rsquo s a fool&rsquo s game (lower &lsquo f&rsquo fool!) to try and guess what commodity prices would do. But even more importantly, it&rsquo s worth noting that there can be a wide gulf between a positive macro-trend and positive stock price gains. High production costs, mining accidents, poor mine selections, debt-crippled balance sheets, and more can stand between a gold mining company and solid returns for its stock in the future even in the event that gold prices soar from here. Investors who are interested in CNMC Goldmine, Anchor Resources, and Wilton Resources may want to keep these in mind.
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destinykraze Elite	09-Jul-2016 23:29        destinykraze About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Wow, these clone accounts needs to be banned.
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zandlery Supreme	09-Jul-2016 22:48        zandlery About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	in lame man term what u said might be true....but as a institute....their analysis have to calculate based on future risk into consideration.......those comment jus for everyone references.....don't shoot down any comment if it disagree with u and if it not in favor to the position of whoever holding.....have a open mind to minimise risk.....priority are to earn profit.... jo3yloh      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 19:56) Posted: you dont really make sense. if you say so. can i say 0.51 is the average price too? cnmc could have gone up to $1   due its peak and down again when the mine is nearing its end. Its still a young mine growing. your assumption is also assuming cnmc does not expands and buy new mines. dont mislead others. you don' t like the price don' t buy. simple. SososoTired      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 17:42) Posted: In any case, since I had to dig out their reports to type the previous post, I re-read them and shall share some of my thoughts here.   NRA assumes mine life until 2025, model gold price is 1,200/oz. KGI assumes mine life unitl 2039 model gold price is 1,170/oz. The latest KGI report assumes gold price 1,230. Why both houses never use the current gold price of 1,300 to 1,400? Its obvious that gold price depends heavily on risk and interest rates. If the market crashes and gold rises to 2,000/oz. Its good for CNMC. However, u think gold can stay at 1,500 or 2,000 until 2025 or 2039?  Over the whole monetary cycle (interest rate cut to raise interest rate), gold price can fluctuate from 600/oz in 2006 to > 1800/oz in 2011/2012. So assuming gold price around 1,200/oz makes sense --> that would be the average price a miner like CNMC can obtain over the entire interest rate cycle based on historical information.   So nothing wrong with some people suggesting gold prices of even 1,500 or 2,000/oz... These are what we call aggressive assumptions. At current price for CNMC, doing your own due diligence is out of the window... If you had done your due diligence, chances are your fair value will be the same as NRA' s or KGI' s. At this stage, the question is how much risk you are willing to take. How aggressively will you assume higher gold price or lower gold prices for the next 10 to 20 years!
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jcbull Senior	09-Jul-2016 22:26        jcbull About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	All three catalysts had materialised. The price now is 57.5 cents. What' s next? 1st Dividend to be announced during Q2 report. This will set the tone for the entire year dividend. Gold price continue to trend upwards..according to Chris Lim, every 1% increase in Gold price is 3% increase in profit, that was when All-in-cost at over US$600.Now probably 1% to 4%? Signing of agreement for the Pulai mines - 2 months from announcement 18 Jun and the first gold pour from Pulai Mine or Qualified Person Report on Pulai mines Venturing into farming? I am not sure this is good idea but I don' t think they will start to look it before Pulai Mines is self sustaining with positive returns. jcbull      ( Date: 07-May-2016 20:34) Posted: There are 3 catalysts : 1.   Increase in Gold Price ( Q1 result should show an increase in revenue and profit) 2. Increase in Production (2nd production commission in early Apr, Q2 result will show an increase in production) 3. Purchase of new mine (CNMC has set aside $50M MYR for the development of new mine) Past few days, there had been  nett buy. Look like many have loaded and waiting for the push.
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SososoTired Member	09-Jul-2016 21:48        SososoTired About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Just sharing my immediate thought of this article... this type of generic articles are easy to read. But in reality, they tell you nothing at all. No spreadsheets, no tables, no forecasts, no target price.  " High production costs, mining accidents, poor mine selections, debt-crippled balance sheets" --> I wonder if Motly has looked at the three companies that they have cited one by one and in detail. These comments by Motley have merely highlighted some of the generic risks that do not apply to CNMC. CNMC is net cash and has low production cost. Its share price going up recently is a part of the value discovery process.    $warrior      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 20:20) Posted: Now here is another viewpoint from The Motley Fool .....not that I   take their view as gospel truth.....just for info only.       Are You Aware Of The Risks With These Gold Mining Stocks? - Motley Fool Earlier this morning, the Business Times had published an article by Anita Gabriel on three gold mining stocks that are listed on the Catalist board, namely,  CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd (SGX: 5TP), Anchor Resources Ltd (SGX: 43E), and Wilton Resources Corporation Ltd (SGX: 5F7). The article had touched on the trio&rsquo s strong share price gains yesterday   CNMC Goldmine, Anchor Resources, and Wilton Resources had climbed by  16.2%, 16.7%, and 3.75%, respectively. Gabriel had written that the three stocks &ldquo have been given a fresh impetus of late thanks to a gold rally as investors zoom in on safe-haven assets amid renewed &ldquo Brexit&rdquo anxiety.&rdquo Indeed, stock market participants have been giving the three stocks plenty of love in recent times. Over the past month,  CNMC Goldmine&rsquo s shares have nearly doubled in price, Anchor Resources&rsquo stock price has surged by 35%, and Wilton Resources&rsquo shares have put on 40%. In the same timeframe, the price of gold has climbed by around 10%. For me, all the data points above serve to highlight the strong possibility that some investors are rushing into the three aforementioned stocks only because they think that the price of gold will continue to rise. I think such investors are playing a very dangerous game for two reasons. First, trying to guess the movement of commodity prices &ndash both over the short- and long-term &ndash is a very tough thing to do. Here&rsquo s a good example. In 2014, The Washington Post carried an article on oil, stating (emphasis mine): &ldquo Just 15 years ago, most oil analysts predicted that crude would stabilize around [US]$20 a barrel for the foreseeable future, arguing that this was the magic price the Saudis &mdash and OPEC &mdash would target. The 2000s proved that spectacularly wrong: Oil prices rose nearly 15-fold in less than 10 years while Saudi Arabia did little to respond.&rdquo Second, even if we assume we can correctly guess that the price of gold would rise strongly a year, five years, or even 10 years from now, that does not mean that gold-mining stocks would automatically be great investments. History has good lessons here. In the 10 years ended September 2015, the price of gold had climbed by nearly 10% per year in Australian-dollar terms. But, the S& P / ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index had fallen by around 4% annually over the same period. The index is made up of the stocks of small Australian gold miners. A Fool&rsquo s take It&rsquo s a fool&rsquo s game (lower &lsquo f&rsquo fool!) to try and guess what commodity prices would do. But even more importantly, it&rsquo s worth noting that there can be a wide gulf between a positive macro-trend and positive stock price gains. High production costs, mining accidents, poor mine selections, debt-crippled balance sheets, and more can stand between a gold mining company and solid returns for its stock in the future even in the event that gold prices soar from here. Investors who are interested in CNMC Goldmine, Anchor Resources, and Wilton Resources may want to keep these in mind.   SososoTired      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 17:42) Posted: In any case, since I had to dig out their reports to type the previous post, I re-read them and shall share some of my thoughts here.   NRA assumes mine life until 2025, model gold price is 1,200/oz. KGI assumes mine life unitl 2039 model gold price is 1,170/oz. The latest KGI report assumes gold price 1,230. Why both houses never use the current gold price of 1,300 to 1,400? Its obvious that gold price depends heavily on risk and interest rates. If the market crashes and gold rises to 2,000/oz. Its good for CNMC. However, u think gold can stay at 1,500 or 2,000 until 2025 or 2039?  Over the whole monetary cycle (interest rate cut to raise interest rate), gold price can fluctuate from 600/oz in 2006 to > 1800/oz in 2011/2012. So assuming gold price around 1,200/oz makes sense --> that would be the average price a miner like CNMC can obtain over the entire interest rate cycle based on historical information.   So nothing wrong with some people suggesting gold prices of even 1,500 or 2,000/oz... These are what we call aggressive assumptions. At current price for CNMC, doing your own due diligence is out of the window... If you had done your due diligence, chances are your fair value will be the same as NRA' s or KGI' s. At this stage, the question is how much risk you are willing to take. How aggressively will you assume higher gold price or lower gold prices for the next 10 to 20 years!
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SososoTired Member	09-Jul-2016 21:38        SososoTired About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	" you dont really make sense. if you say so. can i say 0.51 is the average price too? cnmc could have gone up to $1   due its peak and down again when the mine is nearing its end." --> the value of a mine is the present value of the cash flows it can get from extracting currently estimated resources. No, the value of a mine will not increase substantially if changes in gold prices are not expected to be sustainable. Likewise, production going up shows that the company can execute, but the value of the mine will not change if no new resources are found. Just the the share price of a company will not change, if future growth has already been priced in. I think this is very logical and makes sense. " ts still a young mine growing. your assumption is also assuming cnmc does not expands and buy new mines. dont mislead others. you don' t like the price don' t buy. simple. " --> This is the part where you have caught me. Yes, I was only looking at the relationship between gold price and mines. Yes, the value of CNMC is higher than previously assuming that the new Pulai mine will be successfully acquired. But no one knows how much gold there is at the new mine right? So again dyodd based on publicly available information is not going to yield a higher fair value.  jo3yloh      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 19:56) Posted: you dont really make sense. if you say so. can i say 0.51 is the average price too? cnmc could have gone up to $1   due its peak and down again when the mine is nearing its end. Its still a young mine growing. your assumption is also assuming cnmc does not expands and buy new mines. dont mislead others. you don' t like the price don' t buy. simple. SososoTired      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 17:42) Posted: In any case, since I had to dig out their reports to type the previous post, I re-read them and shall share some of my thoughts here.   NRA assumes mine life until 2025, model gold price is 1,200/oz. KGI assumes mine life unitl 2039 model gold price is 1,170/oz. The latest KGI report assumes gold price 1,230. Why both houses never use the current gold price of 1,300 to 1,400? Its obvious that gold price depends heavily on risk and interest rates. If the market crashes and gold rises to 2,000/oz. Its good for CNMC. However, u think gold can stay at 1,500 or 2,000 until 2025 or 2039?  Over the whole monetary cycle (interest rate cut to raise interest rate), gold price can fluctuate from 600/oz in 2006 to > 1800/oz in 2011/2012. So assuming gold price around 1,200/oz makes sense --> that would be the average price a miner like CNMC can obtain over the entire interest rate cycle based on historical information.   So nothing wrong with some people suggesting gold prices of even 1,500 or 2,000/oz... These are what we call aggressive assumptions. At current price for CNMC, doing your own due diligence is out of the window... If you had done your due diligence, chances are your fair value will be the same as NRA' s or KGI' s. At this stage, the question is how much risk you are willing to take. How aggressively will you assume higher gold price or lower gold prices for the next 10 to 20 years!
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$warrior Master	09-Jul-2016 20:20        $warrior About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Now here is another viewpoint from The Motley Fool .....not that I   take their view as gospel truth.....just for info only.       Are You Aware Of The Risks With These Gold Mining Stocks? - Motley Fool Earlier this morning, the Business Times had published an article by Anita Gabriel on three gold mining stocks that are listed on the Catalist board, namely,  CNMC Goldmine Holdings Ltd (SGX: 5TP), Anchor Resources Ltd (SGX: 43E), and Wilton Resources Corporation Ltd (SGX: 5F7). The article had touched on the trio&rsquo s strong share price gains yesterday   CNMC Goldmine, Anchor Resources, and Wilton Resources had climbed by  16.2%, 16.7%, and 3.75%, respectively. Gabriel had written that the three stocks &ldquo have been given a fresh impetus of late thanks to a gold rally as investors zoom in on safe-haven assets amid renewed &ldquo Brexit&rdquo anxiety.&rdquo Indeed, stock market participants have been giving the three stocks plenty of love in recent times. Over the past month,  CNMC Goldmine&rsquo s shares have nearly doubled in price, Anchor Resources&rsquo stock price has surged by 35%, and Wilton Resources&rsquo shares have put on 40%. In the same timeframe, the price of gold has climbed by around 10%. For me, all the data points above serve to highlight the strong possibility that some investors are rushing into the three aforementioned stocks only because they think that the price of gold will continue to rise. I think such investors are playing a very dangerous game for two reasons. First, trying to guess the movement of commodity prices &ndash both over the short- and long-term &ndash is a very tough thing to do. Here&rsquo s a good example. In 2014, The Washington Post carried an article on oil, stating (emphasis mine): &ldquo Just 15 years ago, most oil analysts predicted that crude would stabilize around [US]$20 a barrel for the foreseeable future, arguing that this was the magic price the Saudis &mdash and OPEC &mdash would target. The 2000s proved that spectacularly wrong: Oil prices rose nearly 15-fold in less than 10 years while Saudi Arabia did little to respond.&rdquo Second, even if we assume we can correctly guess that the price of gold would rise strongly a year, five years, or even 10 years from now, that does not mean that gold-mining stocks would automatically be great investments. History has good lessons here. In the 10 years ended September 2015, the price of gold had climbed by nearly 10% per year in Australian-dollar terms. But, the S& P / ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index had fallen by around 4% annually over the same period. The index is made up of the stocks of small Australian gold miners. A Fool&rsquo s take It&rsquo s a fool&rsquo s game (lower &lsquo f&rsquo fool!) to try and guess what commodity prices would do. But even more importantly, it&rsquo s worth noting that there can be a wide gulf between a positive macro-trend and positive stock price gains. High production costs, mining accidents, poor mine selections, debt-crippled balance sheets, and more can stand between a gold mining company and solid returns for its stock in the future even in the event that gold prices soar from here. Investors who are interested in CNMC Goldmine, Anchor Resources, and Wilton Resources may want to keep these in mind.   SososoTired      ( Date: 09-Jul-2016 17:42) Posted: In any case, since I had to dig out their reports to type the previous post, I re-read them and shall share some of my thoughts here.   NRA assumes mine life until 2025, model gold price is 1,200/oz. KGI assumes mine life unitl 2039 model gold price is 1,170/oz. The latest KGI report assumes gold price 1,230. Why both houses never use the current gold price of 1,300 to 1,400? Its obvious that gold price depends heavily on risk and interest rates. If the market crashes and gold rises to 2,000/oz. Its good for CNMC. However, u think gold can stay at 1,500 or 2,000 until 2025 or 2039?  Over the whole monetary cycle (interest rate cut to raise interest rate), gold price can fluctuate from 600/oz in 2006 to > 1800/oz in 2011/2012. So assuming gold price around 1,200/oz makes sense --> that would be the average price a miner like CNMC can obtain over the entire interest rate cycle based on historical information.   So nothing wrong with some people suggesting gold prices of even 1,500 or 2,000/oz... These are what we call aggressive assumptions. At current price for CNMC, doing your own due diligence is out of the window... If you had done your due diligence, chances are your fair value will be the same as NRA' s or KGI' s. At this stage, the question is how much risk you are willing to take. How aggressively will you assume higher gold price or lower gold prices for the next 10 to 20 years!
Useful To Me  Not Useful To Me

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