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CNMC Goldmine
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Goldminer
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GoldFocus
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10-Jul-2016 23:11
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Nice compilation of key events this week. Source: http://www.investing.com/analysis/brexit-vote-and-gold-200140897 Monday, July 11 Finance ministers from the euro zone are to hold a meeting in Brussels. Kansas Fed chief Esther George is to speak at an event in Missouri. Tuesday, July 12 In the U.K. BoE Governor Mark Carney and several policymakers are to testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament' s Treasury Committee. St. Louis Fed head James Bullard is to speak at an event in St. Louis. Wednesday, July 13 China is to publish data on the trade balance. The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference. Thursday, July 14 The BoE is to announce its monetary policy decision and publish the minutes of its policy meeting. The U.S. is to release data on producer prices and initial jobless claims. Friday, July 15 China is to release reports on second quarter economic growth and industrial production. The euro zone is to publish revised inflation data. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in Toronto. The U.S. is to round up the week with a string of data, including reports on consumer inflation, retail sales, manufacturing activity in the New York region, industrial production and consumer sentiment. |
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FreedomAngelz
Veteran |
10-Jul-2016 22:46
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lol.....i think its the best investment they can possible find......if their geologist can pinpoint a good location to start mining......they can easily recover back their investment in 1-2 quarters.
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SososoTired
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10-Jul-2016 22:41
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Quoting myself, CNMC is quite smart... invest 13.8m ringgit or S$4.6 million can add S$30.5m to market value.
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SososoTired
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10-Jul-2016 22:35
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Go read the reports. They are quite public. Another thing. I suggest don' t read too much into high P/Es of other miners etc. Imagine. Gold miner A - 50 year mine life. Stable production throughout --> P/E logically is 50x. Gold miner B - 10 year mine life. Stable production throughout--> P/E logically is 10x. Be rational. I think CNMC is a good company. If I ignore gold price, then any upside will mainly come from Pulai. But we dont know how much Pulai is worth now and when it will come online. More importantly, we dont know how much money to spend on Pulai... But since you ask for calculations... Both houses actually say CNMC is worth around 50 cents or market cap of about 200m. We know CNMC has 618,000 oz of gold resources. So the fair value is about S$330 per ounce of gold. If CNMC is worth around 50 cents, than the additional 7.5 cents now can only come from Pulai. Multipled by 407 million shares --> this is S$30.5 million from Pulai. Divide this 30.5 million by 330, I think you will see that the current market price implies that Pulai already has 92,700 oz of gold. Every one cent tick higher in CNMC from here assumes that Pulai has another 12,360 oz of gold, assuming no gold price changes. |
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GoldFocus
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10-Jul-2016 22:15
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Thanks for bringing it up SososoTired. I did not include those factors that you mentioned. What should the calculations be then? I showed my production numbers based on Q1 + 3x Q2. I mentioned previously that Q3 and Q4 production levels are seaonsally higher (if you look at the table at CNMC website), but I assumed a flat production rate at Q2' s levels
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SososoTired
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10-Jul-2016 22:08
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GoldFocus - Did you include minority interest? I think 19% or 20% has to be deducted for minority interest that does not accrue to shareholders. All in cost is US$487 --> But did you include depreciation and amortizaton? Depreciation and amortisation was US$1,026,096 for 7,271.35 ounces of gold produced in 1Q. This is equal to US$141.11 per ounce. Again I check back with the two analyst reports. Both houses forecast 35,420oz and 35,613oz in 2016, and both forecast net profit after minority interest of only US$16.4m or US$16.5m. Why your forecast production of 36,693 oz net profit is so much higher than theirs? |
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GoldFocus
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10-Jul-2016 21:18
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For the benefit of everyone holding this stock and feeling jittery, here are some numbers to calm your nerves Assuming Q3/Q4 productions stay at Q2 levels (although typically, they should be higher), annual production this year: Full Year production = Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4 Full year production = 7,271.35 + 9,807.37 + 9,807.37 + 9,807.37 = 36,693.46 ounces Assuming gold price averages USD1, 200 for the year, and all-in cost of gold production for CNMC is USD 500 (although for Q1, it was USD 487, and seeing the trend, this cost should keep going down) Gold profit per ounce = USD1,200 &ndash USD 500 = USD 700 Total profit for the year = total production x profit per ounce = 36,693.46 x USD 700 = USD25, 685,422 Assuming USD to SGD = 1.35 USD26, 685,422 = SGD 1.35 x 26,685,422 = SGD 34,675,319.70 Current shares outstanding: 407,293,000 EPS = Total profit / shares outstanding = SGD 34,675,319.70 / 407,293,000 = SGD 0.085 EPS is SGD 8.5 cents per share, giving it a current PE of 6.75, based on above conservative calculations and Friday&rsquo s closing price of SGD0.565 Assuming they have other unforeseen costs, we lower that EPS to 7 cents per share, we are still looking at a PE of only 8. A guide to help you make a decision on whether or not to dump your CNMC Goldmine shares:
Sources: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CNMC:SP http://www.cnmc.com.hk/investor_relations.html Yahoo Finance Disclaimer: Obviously, I am vested in this company. I do not claim to be completely correct, and above figures are all my own calculations. If I am wrong, please feel free to correct me and share your findings with everyone. The guide is also just a simple way of making a decision, it is not completely comprehensive. I hope this serves to calm the jittery shareholders. Just my 2 cents worth. :) |
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Newbie2223
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10-Jul-2016 20:18
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GoldFocus - You are spot on! Let them see how it moves tomorrow when the market opens. |
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GoldFocus
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10-Jul-2016 20:12
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May I please ask, how did you count in order to say that the current price has already factored in gold price of USD 1,500 per ounce? I did some calculations conservatively (Q2 productions, USD 1200 per ounce gold), and came up with EPS of around 7 cents, giving it a current PE of less than 10. I saw Friday as a healthy correction due to profit taking, and gold price dropping ahead of US employment data. When that data was released, gold dipped but rebounded just as sharply, attributing to huge ' buying on dips' . Gold price closed with a gain instead. UK just rejected a peitition for a second referendum, and the government insisted that the wills of 33m citizens must be respected, and they will have to proceed with brexit. That happened on Friday after trading hours. If anything, this news is going to support gold prices. Events coming soon that may affect gold - BOE announcing rate cuts this Thursday. Japan' s announcing stimulus. Apart from ' technical analysis' , may I ask, what other ' due diligence' do the gold bears have to provide here?
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Newbie2223
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10-Jul-2016 20:05
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destinykraze, US and Asia markets are not stabilizing, it is a temporary facade, read between the lines and observe carefully again, there will be no retracement on Monday as the profit taking has already been effected on Friday. |
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destinykraze
Elite |
10-Jul-2016 19:52
Yells: "Reality is only a matter of perception" |
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More retracement to come on monday. Weak support for CNMC now. CNMC share price surge was already factoring the high chance of gold hit $1500 or even more. With US and asia market stabilizing, it seems gold hitting $1600 and above is not possible in the short term for the time being, hence sharp selldown by BBs. Best to watch and enter after retracement as BBs might be planning to unload their shares. |
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Newbie2223
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10-Jul-2016 19:46
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Gosh, GoldFocus, why bother with some of them whom are holding the view that Gold will crash?? It is either they are still hoping for some fed stimulus, BoE stimulus or some MIRACLE! Let them see how gold will move in the next few weeks. Let them short and they will feel the pain when it comes. :) |
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GoldFocus
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10-Jul-2016 19:26
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Yup i agree. Lookup DJIA on google. Its nearly at historic high. Between DJIA and Gold, which one is more likely to crash? 
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lamechops
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10-Jul-2016 19:17
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Past prices are not a good indicator of future prices.
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GoldFocus
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10-Jul-2016 17:01
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I' ve been following this thread since January, and would just like to say a few words as well. If one is speculating, then I agree it would be a good time to think and sell into strength. I think a lot of investors here already ' DYODD' , so there' s really no need to keep saying that. There' s as much ' due diligence' as one can possibly get, and looking at current global woes, it is not surprising that gold still has more upside to go. The current PE of this counter does not reflect its latest earnings, and seasonally, Q3/Q4 productions are higher than Q2. Even if you assume, for the rest of the year, that production stays at Q2 levels, and assume a gold price of USD1,200, the EPS is still much higher than the current one. This is not even including future plans (Pulai mining, China investors etc). If you are a gold bull, you will be hesitant to invest in the stock market at this point, and looking to gold for ' safety' . If one does not want to buy physical/paper gold, or ETF, then the only real counter with gold exposure left to buy is CNMC Goldmine. There is simply no other gold mining company that is comparable on SGX. On the global front, the PE of this stock is ridiculously low compared to other gold miners (and let' s not go into balance sheets, we all already know about CNMC' s). Who is to say that this stock is overbought, and who is to set a target price to it?
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FreedomAngelz
Veteran |
10-Jul-2016 15:20
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Gold ETF and Gold Mining shares in US / Canada / Australia is also a good indicator as signs for CNMC price direction. |
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spore1
Supreme |
10-Jul-2016 15:05
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Is up to u . Is almost at historical high price Loh . The recent price surges I think is mostly bec of Brexit .. Think is gd time to pause n make yr own judgement .. | ||||
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lamechops
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10-Jul-2016 14:45
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Problem is CNMC is still not at its strength yet. |
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spore1
Supreme |
10-Jul-2016 13:57
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When most of the ppl r having the thought/feeling that gold price will rise further ,this could b a great moment to think and sell into strength.Dyodd | ||||
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SososoTired
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10-Jul-2016 12:33
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Thanks for being candid. I checked on stock facts. the last time CNMC traded at the 52 week low was 26 January 2016. Close at 17.8 cents when gold was 1120. Prior to that was 18 May 2015, close at 27 cents. Gold was 1,206/oz on 22 May 2015. So you are right, because that time everybody was afraid of interest rate hike. However, since beginning this year, the Fed has slowed down, especially after the market turmoil in January. In fact, since 21 Jan to end May gold has stayed between 1,100 to 1,300. In the same period, CNMC traded from 18 cents to 27 cents. |
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