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SEMBMARINE - A NEW CHAPTER - DEMERGED Post Reply Rate topic
kopi-boy Member	19-Nov-2021 14:36        kopi-boy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Question is not about posting what you believe, it is about keep repeating the same thing.  I guess most people appreciate your concern but no need to over do it. After a while people with question your motive. ckmpd1      ( Date: 19-Nov-2021 14:25) Posted: Agree with you.  Looks like the cheerleaders here are running out of applause.  Some forumners here dont like it when we speak contrary to what they like to read and criticise us that speaking of price drop is hitting under the belt.  What hitting below the belt for reiterating what we believe?  What' s wrong with reminding people that SMM is running out of time?  Can' t we post what we believe?  Must we post something that they like to read?   chart_expert123      ( Date: 19-Nov-2021 12:20) Posted: 8.4 to 8.5 watch up, TP 4-5cent
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ckmpd1 Supreme	19-Nov-2021 14:25        ckmpd1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree with you.  Looks like the cheerleaders here are running out of applause.  Some forumners here dont like it when we speak contrary to what they like to read and criticise us that speaking of price drop is hitting under the belt.  What hitting below the belt for reiterating what we believe?  What' s wrong with reminding people that SMM is running out of time?  Can' t we post what we believe?  Must we post something that they like to read?   chart_expert123      ( Date: 19-Nov-2021 12:20) Posted: 8.4 to 8.5 watch up, TP 4-5cents chart_expert123      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 11:07) Posted: 7.8-7.9 support --> 8.9-9 resistance --> 8.1-8.2 support --> 8.6-8.7 resistance--> 1hr MACD going to cross 0 to negative.
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chart_expert123 Master	19-Nov-2021 12:20        chart_expert123 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	8.4 to 8.5 watch up, TP 4-5cents chart_expert123      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 11:07) Posted: 7.8-7.9 support --> 8.9-9 resistance --> 8.1-8.2 support --> 8.6-8.7 resistance--> 1hr MACD going to cross 0 to negative.
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datadatadata Member	19-Nov-2021 09:01        datadatadata About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Let me clarify on this topic raised earlier. In merger, shareholders' approval is the key to successful completion. As the MCO of 8 cents has shown, no one is interetested in that kind of price. KOM had to be very convincing in offering a good price to entice shareholders to approve their deal. I believe any offer needs majority approval (> 50%) of shareholders' vote and the number of shares respresented should be 75% of the total issued shares. If only 74% of shareholding amount is represented by in person or proxy, even if 100% of those present intend to approve the resoultion, it considered as failed.  Unless there is an attractive premium, such as 30% above last closing price or 10 cents based on the latest price, there is no reason for anyone to want to even attend such EGM. Even though a handful of TH proxy make up over 51%, they still need the remaining 20% to be reprsented. So the logic to sell now does not make sense. Worst case, let the announcment come out and then DYODD.
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Oxtail Member	19-Nov-2021 07:58        Oxtail About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In my opinion, once merging details are known and it is super bad news, it is too late to sell.  Cut lost or tank all the way to merged if you believe in the company future.      Oxtail      ( Date: 19-Nov-2021 07:53) Posted: 1) Major sell off at 8cents during or before MGO - Done 2) Slow rising to market fair price - in progress - Buying opportunity  3) Reach to market fair price - Sell , take profit opportunity 4) If good news, buying opportunity  5) Reach to new market fair pice - Sell, take profit opportunity  6) Merge - Hold  7) Depend on factors, sell off expected as not everyone wants to be in this industry - Buying opportunity  8) Depends on the new entity prospect. Moving to the new market fair price 9) Reach to new market fai price - Sell, take profit opportunity The problem with the above is we do not know when is the peak, where is the peak, what is the merging details, when is the merge, how market react.  Things we do not know and we take a position is called gamble.  Do you think it is worth the gamble ?  DYODD    bankaiz      ( Date: 19-Nov-2021 02:51) Posted: So start selling SMM when the announcement made or just wait for them to merge and take the offer price or hold and transition over the merge entity? im so confused lol
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Oxtail Member	19-Nov-2021 07:53        Oxtail About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	1) Major sell off at 8cents during or before MGO - Done 2) Slow rising to market fair price - in progress - Buying opportunity  3) Reach to market fair price - Sell , take profit opportunity 4) If good news, buying opportunity  5) Reach to new market fair pice - Sell, take profit opportunity  6) Merge - Hold  7) Depend on factors, sell off expected as not everyone wants to be in this industry - Buying opportunity  8) Depends on the new entity prospect. Moving to the new market fair price 9) Reach to new market fai price - Sell, take profit opportunity The problem with the above is we do not know when is the peak, where is the peak, what is the merging details, when is the merge, how market react.  Things we do not know and we take a position is called gamble.  Do you think it is worth the gamble ?  DYODD    bankaiz      ( Date: 19-Nov-2021 02:51) Posted: So start selling SMM when the announcement made or just wait for them to merge and take the offer price or hold and transition over the merge entity? im so confused lol   ahbui8      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 15:26) Posted: TH can do wonder with capital. Example the new merge entity, SCM 40% KOM 40% TH will invest 2B for the next 20%. If this merge proposal announced, SCM share price will fly 😂
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Oxtail Member	19-Nov-2021 07:43        Oxtail About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	For those who worried on SCM cash flow,  Tells you how does a bank think. Then, you can anticipate on their action.  https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/there-could-be-oil-price-spikes-towards-us80-barrel-or-higher-late-2022-and While 2022 should still represent a reasonably balanced market as OPEC+ looks to boost supplies by around 4 million barrels per day (mmbpd) over the next 10 months, DBS Group Research analysts believe there could be oil price spikes towards US$80 per barrel or higher in late 2022 and beyond. Factors include demand recovering to pre-pandemic levels, air travel recovering well into 2023 and OPEC spare capacity down to normalised levels, the analysts say. " Thus, we introduce 2023 average Brent crude oil price forecast at an elevated level of US$85 to US$90 per barrel,&rdquo they add. The analysts note that the OPEC+ is in no hurry to boost production higher than planned. In its latest meeting, OPEC+ members decided to stick to the 0.4 mmbpd output increase despite calls for more production.  &ldquo The lack of material response from US shale drillers to the oil price increase so far seems to be one of the reasons that the OPEC+ bloc remains comfortable with oil prices above US$70 per barrel and enjoying the higher oil revenues,&rdquo they add. The analysts highlight that oil bulls have been on a riot lately, as Brent crude oil prices breached US$85 per barrel driven by the ongoing energy crisis in parts of the world. Brent is currently hovering around US$83 per barrel, up 16% in the last 3 months, 60% year-to-date and 329% from the lows of last year. Meanwhile, liquefied natural gas prices in Asia and Europe are hovering at US$25/MMBtu to US$30/MMBtu currently, compared to the levels of US$5/MMBtu this time last year as the demand supply mismatch in the gas sector has soared owning to muted upstream investments.  As winter approaches and inventory levels remain low, especially in Europe and even in North Asia, the analysts believe there will be fuel switching to oil. &ldquo If the coming winter is colder than usual, we could see higher oil demand,&rdquo they add.   Given that the gas supply situation is unlikely to be addressed over the next few months, the analysts raise their average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 to a range of US$70 to US$75 per barrel and US$75 to US$80 per barrel respectively, from US$67 to US$72 per barrel and US$70 US$75 per barrel previously.  &ldquo Following the winter gas crunch, we anticipate both gas and oil prices to moderate in 1H22, before firming up again in 2H22 on the back of high season demand,&rdquo say the analysts.  Drilling activities are already creeping up on the back of high oil prices &ndash the analysts point that rig utilisation has improved to the north of 80% and the market is looking to reactivate cold-stacked rigs as well as completed and half-built rigs.  Shipyards like Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine are benefiting from this trend, say the analysts. &ldquo Keppel&rsquo s stranded rigs and floating accommodation platforms should see higher utilisation ahead. Enquiries for production platforms should also pick up, translating into stronger order flows next year.  &ldquo This is particularly critical for SembMarine, whose order book has dwindled to $1.24 billion, way below annual revenue run rate of over $2 billion that is required to breakeven. Keppel is in a better position with a $5.5 billion order book and $3.1 billion order wins year-to-date, compared to peer SembMarine&rsquo s mere $600 million new wins.&rdquo As at 2.35pm, Brent crude oil prices are trading down 0.50% at US79.88 per barrel.
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bankaiz Member	19-Nov-2021 02:51        bankaiz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So start selling SMM when the announcement made or just wait for them to merge and take the offer price or hold and transition over the merge entity? im so confused lol   ahbui8      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 15:26) Posted: TH can do wonder with capital. Example the new merge entity, SCM 40% KOM 40% TH will invest 2B for the next 20%. If this merge proposal announced, SCM share price will fly 😂   kopi-boy      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 14:20) Posted: TH can' t do wonders.  They only can provide capital and decide on the management team. Regardless whether win or don' t win contracts also will lose money then this industry is a sunset industry.  Things are not so straightfoward and there are many other factors to determine the success of a company.  Do not expect environment to be static and the factors to stay the same.  The game will be different if you change the key players or the rules.  That' s the beauty of investing, it is an art not science. else everyone will be super rich
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datadatadata Member	18-Nov-2021 16:52        datadatadata About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes, you' ve just given the definition of " no competition" - " can go anywhere" , Currently, due to compeition, they have to do a gentlemen understanding to segment their activities. bystander1965      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 16:33) Posted: Actually as far as I can see today, they don' t actually compete with each other. They have " territories" . Haha. After the merger then they can go anywhere. bystander1965      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 16:29) Posted: Also it' s not no competition after the merger if it ever materialises. There are still many competitors just that we won' t have 1 SG co competing with another SG co
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bystander1965 Supreme	18-Nov-2021 16:33        bystander1965 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Actually as far as I can see today, they don' t actually compete with each other. They have " territories" . Haha. After the merger then they can go anywhere. bystander1965      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 16:29) Posted: Also it' s not no competition after the merger if it ever materialises. There are still many competitors just that we won' t have 1 SG co competing with another SG co. bystander1965      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 16:26) Posted: Synergy yes. But saving from human cost. Well, I wouldn' t bet so much on it. It' s not going to be 1 on 1 reduction for sure. In any case, how much the saving can be achieved in the whole scheme is dubious. Call me cynical but this reason is not really a reason but an excuse. Anyway, the merger is really for long term, at best mid term. Short term,  it is what is in front of them that needs to be solved that is more important.
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bystander1965 Supreme	18-Nov-2021 16:29        bystander1965 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Also it' s not no competition after the merger if it ever materialises. There are still many competitors just that we won' t have 1 SG co competing with another SG co. bystander1965      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 16:26) Posted: Synergy yes. But saving from human cost. Well, I wouldn' t bet so much on it. It' s not going to be 1 on 1 reduction for sure. In any case, how much the saving can be achieved in the whole scheme is dubious. Call me cynical but this reason is not really a reason but an excuse. Anyway, the merger is really for long term, at best mid term. Short term,  it is what is in front of them that needs to be solved that is more important.   datadatadata      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 16:12) Posted: While review of the company' s financial position using the usual NTA, Cashflow, etc. are the usual tools we use to anlyse the true valuation of a company, such reviews are not quite applicable when we talk about merger. In the case of SCM and KOM merger, we need to see the productivity or cost savings from the merged entity. As there is a strong synergy between them, being in the same business line, there is a lot of savings from removing all the redundancies. For example, you can safely take out one set of management staff (as opposed to 1 each from KOM and SCM), the single entity will have a combined contract size that will optimize KOM (assuming KOM is the final controlling entity) to full operating capacity, combined direct labour completely removes the shortage issues they face today, etc. To visualize the impact, just imagine KOM takes over all the contracts and direct labour into their entity and get rid of everything that SCM have today (capital, indirect staff, excess inventories, etc.). Can you imagine how optimized KOM will be and how profitable they can be as a O& M and Renewable Energy outfit with no competitor in sight? However, just to illustrate an opposite scenario where   a property company buying out SCM, then there is completely no synergy and yes, you can do all the calculation presented by all the forum posts mentioned earlier and SCM will drag down combined company' s financial strength. Let us now   wait for the merger announcement coming very soon and I think it is in the price target of 10 cents. Purely my guess but worth keeping it for a few weeks for now and we can decide the next target when the merger did not take place. (which I highly doubt)
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bystander1965 Supreme	18-Nov-2021 16:26        bystander1965 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Synergy yes. But saving from human cost. Well, I wouldn' t bet so much on it. It' s not going to be 1 on 1 reduction for sure. In any case, how much the saving can be achieved in the whole scheme is dubious. Call me cynical but this reason is not really a reason but an excuse. Anyway, the merger is really for long term, at best mid term. Short term,  it is what is in front of them that needs to be solved that is more important.   datadatadata      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 16:12) Posted: While review of the company' s financial position using the usual NTA, Cashflow, etc. are the usual tools we use to anlyse the true valuation of a company, such reviews are not quite applicable when we talk about merger. In the case of SCM and KOM merger, we need to see the productivity or cost savings from the merged entity. As there is a strong synergy between them, being in the same business line, there is a lot of savings from removing all the redundancies. For example, you can safely take out one set of management staff (as opposed to 1 each from KOM and SCM), the single entity will have a combined contract size that will optimize KOM (assuming KOM is the final controlling entity) to full operating capacity, combined direct labour completely removes the shortage issues they face today, etc. To visualize the impact, just imagine KOM takes over all the contracts and direct labour into their entity and get rid of everything that SCM have today (capital, indirect staff, excess inventories, etc.). Can you imagine how optimized KOM will be and how profitable they can be as a O& M and Renewable Energy outfit with no competitor in sight? However, just to illustrate an opposite scenario where   a property company buying out SCM, then there is completely no synergy and yes, you can do all the calculation presented by all the forum posts mentioned earlier and SCM will drag down combined company' s financial strength. Let us now   wait for the merger announcement coming very soon and I think it is in the price target of 10 cents. Purely my guess but worth keeping it for a few weeks for now and we can decide the next target when the merger did not take place. (which I highly doubt)
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datadatadata Member	18-Nov-2021 16:12        datadatadata About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	While review of the company' s financial position using the usual NTA, Cashflow, etc. are the usual tools we use to anlyse the true valuation of a company, such reviews are not quite applicable when we talk about merger. In the case of SCM and KOM merger, we need to see the productivity or cost savings from the merged entity. As there is a strong synergy between them, being in the same business line, there is a lot of savings from removing all the redundancies. For example, you can safely take out one set of management staff (as opposed to 1 each from KOM and SCM), the single entity will have a combined contract size that will optimize KOM (assuming KOM is the final controlling entity) to full operating capacity, combined direct labour completely removes the shortage issues they face today, etc. To visualize the impact, just imagine KOM takes over all the contracts and direct labour into their entity and get rid of everything that SCM have today (capital, indirect staff, excess inventories, etc.). Can you imagine how optimized KOM will be and how profitable they can be as a O& M and Renewable Energy outfit with no competitor in sight? However, just to illustrate an opposite scenario where   a property company buying out SCM, then there is completely no synergy and yes, you can do all the calculation presented by all the forum posts mentioned earlier and SCM will drag down combined company' s financial strength. Let us now   wait for the merger announcement coming very soon and I think it is in the price target of 10 cents. Purely my guess but worth keeping it for a few weeks for now and we can decide the next target when the merger did not take place. (which I highly doubt)
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ahbui8 Master	18-Nov-2021 15:26        ahbui8 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	TH can do wonder with capital. Example the new merge entity, SCM 40% KOM 40% TH will invest 2B for the next 20%. If this merge proposal announced, SCM share price will fly 😂   kopi-boy      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 14:20) Posted: TH can' t do wonders.  They only can provide capital and decide on the management team. Regardless whether win or don' t win contracts also will lose money then this industry is a sunset industry.  Things are not so straightfoward and there are many other factors to determine the success of a company.  Do not expect environment to be static and the factors to stay the same.  The game will be different if you change the key players or the rules.  That' s the beauty of investing, it is an art not science. else everyone will be super rich. weekaykee      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 14:11) Posted: Let' s see if TH can work out a miracle. If not, yes it may be heading in that direction
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share456 Veteran	18-Nov-2021 15:23        share456 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Only after merger, SCM will be profitable. After merger, they will retrench and resize to be profitable. Unprofitable items will be chopped and profitable items will be retained. Share price should move up after 2022 Q1.
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kopi-boy Member	18-Nov-2021 14:20        kopi-boy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	TH can' t do wonders.  They only can provide capital and decide on the management team. Regardless whether win or don' t win contracts also will lose money then this industry is a sunset industry.  Things are not so straightfoward and there are many other factors to determine the success of a company.  Do not expect environment to be static and the factors to stay the same.  The game will be different if you change the key players or the rules.  That' s the beauty of investing, it is an art not science. else everyone will be super rich. weekaykee      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 14:11) Posted: Let' s see if TH can work out a miracle. If not, yes it may be heading in that direction. kopi-boy      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 13:40) Posted: based on ur rationale, smm might as well just liquidate?
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bystander1965 Supreme	18-Nov-2021 14:13        bystander1965 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I can also say if it wins 3-5B a year, then blah blah blah. But then like I said nothing concrete. I am just exposing my ignorance.   bystander1965      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 14:12) Posted: You really have a crystal ball? All if' s and but' s. Nothing concrete. Don' t ask me. Like I said before I don' t have a crystal ball and I am not going to expose my ignorance.   weekaykee      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 13:36) Posted: The price will go up as a knee jerk reaction and trade at a slightly higher level temporarily. If they only keep winning 2B of contracts per year for 3 years, they will still end up accumulating  huge losses.
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bystander1965 Supreme	18-Nov-2021 14:12        bystander1965 About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: Yells: "What I say is just my assessment. DYODD"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You really have a crystal ball? All if' s and but' s. Nothing concrete. Don' t ask me. Like I said before I don' t have a crystal ball and I am not going to expose my ignorance.   weekaykee      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 13:36) Posted: The price will go up as a knee jerk reaction and trade at a slightly higher level temporarily. If they only keep winning 2B of contracts per year for 3 years, they will still end up accumulating  huge losses.  bystander1965      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 13:26) Posted: I am quite sure if managed to win 2B contracts like you said next year the stock price will surely go up. It won' t matter if they still incur losses for 22/23 or 23/24 (may not be this bad cause payment is never in a lump sum + other collections). It only matters if in 2023 or 2024 they don' t win anything again.
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weekaykee Master	18-Nov-2021 14:11        weekaykee About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let' s see if TH can work out a miracle. If not, yes it may be heading in that direction. kopi-boy      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 13:40) Posted: based on ur rationale, smm might as well just liquidate?    weekaykee      ( Date: 18-Nov-2021 13:36) Posted: The price will go up as a knee jerk reaction and trade at a slightly higher level temporarily. If they only keep winning 2B of contracts per year for 3 years, they will still end up accumulating  huge losses.
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tbooncho888 Senior	18-Nov-2021 13:45        tbooncho888 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	SM is now above its daily ma60, and its dma60 will be tunring up soon in 1-2 weeks time, thus is looking good. Its weekly macd divergence condition at the bottom is pending to be resolved, the only remedial action is for its price to go up to relief the divergence condition. Its 200 day ma is at around 0.123, i expect the price to progressively move back to touch it, basing on mean reversion principle.
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