| Latest Forum Topics / Ezra Last:0.011 -- |
 Post Reply
|
|
ThaiBev
|
|||||
|
virinvictus
Member |
12-Jun-2015 16:28
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Actually using my SRS funds which I have no plans to withdraw. So it is either a long term investment that will reap rewards or one that goes to zero. Of course, it is not so simple. SRS or cash, it' s still my money.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
niteowl68
Elite |
12-Jun-2015 16:18
Yells: "God Bleess You" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Good move, make sure you set aside the funds to pick up the rights shares too...
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
pool100
Veteran |
12-Jun-2015 16:18
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
After swiber announced their rights issue of 15 cent, the stock price tumbled all the way down to the rigths price. And it was only a 1 for 2 rigths issue. Ezra' s is 2 for 1 rights issue - very serious dilution! It suggests desperation to me and the fact that they don' t announce the rights price means they don' t really care about protecting the value of the stock price. All they want is to raise the cash and run road. I won' t be surprised that we' ll see ezra below 20 cent soon. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
virinvictus
Member |
12-Jun-2015 16:13
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Whatever the case - I am taking a gamble. Bought 30K @ 0.28 (done at 11:48) Keeping my fingers crossed. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
niteowl68
Elite |
12-Jun-2015 15:53
Yells: "God Bleess You" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
The major shareholders had agreed to take up their entitlements and CS, DBS will underwrite in full the balance 75.3%.. they are professionals so do not forsee any problem on this FR exercise except on the fixing price.. what will be interesting to them? My view is closer to 32c cum rights.. and rights shares can be priced at 15 to 16c.. mho. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
pool100
Veteran |
12-Jun-2015 15:12
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Technically this stock is headed for the dumps. Today there' s increased selling and I think the support at 27.5 will be breached soon. I' m not ashamed to say that I' ve been holding short positions in Ezra since 85 cents until now and I' m increasing my short positions. Forget about all the ocbc research papers or whatever, they have vested interest and normally when they say it' s a buy, it' s actually a sell. My take - this is ezra' s last resort to raise funds to stay afloat. 2 for 1 rights issue is no joke and the dilution is massive. And it' s one of the fishy rights issue whereby no rights price has been announced! It means that this company has run out of all financing options (including banks) and it' s their last ditch attempt. Based on their announcement that the rights price would be less than 50% of the TERP, I think the rights price will be between 5-10 cent. There' s no way they can get full subscription for a 2 for 1 right issue at a higher price when it' s trading at 275-280 range now. Once they announce this, the stock price will tank another round and it will go the swiber way... below 20 cent. Hold or buy at your own peril. That' s all I can say. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Huatsweeswee
Master |
12-Jun-2015 14:55
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
So can buy now or wait?
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
RoundRound
Elite |
12-Jun-2015 14:03
Yells: "Tikam Tikam can also" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Looking back on that faithful Saturday when Ezra announced the Rights Issue, I took about 5 minutes to analyze & come out the the probability price will tank below 30c. It was at 39c closing price on 29 May, just before the long weekend.
If vested holders have disposed on the Tuesday when market opened, they could have easily saved a tidy sum of their capital. Also saw many posters saying when price weaken, they will come in to buy up. The outcome to date if added more is one downtrend price movement, multiplying their ballooning losses
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
niteowl68
Elite |
12-Jun-2015 13:38
Yells: "God Bleess You" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
We can use references from Ocbc research n also Ezra announcement on Sgx website PDF doc, illustrated/ estimated TERP range from 25c to 26.7c and cum rights 32c to 40c. RIghts share price est. around 0.16c to raise S$200M. At this stage, these estimates are good enuh for our own decision making to buy and subscribe for the rights.. mho. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
pnuklis
Master |
12-Jun-2015 13:17
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
2/3 dilution of shares. They need large number of rights money due to lower price of the share price which is going down as we speak. This price is likely to slide down further. It will be interesting to see what rights price they will decide? and that will pull down the share price even further after ex date of rights. I anticipate rights price of 20 cents. All the existing share holders are forced to buy rights otherwise you will die out of dilution any way. May be it is better to sell now if you are not going to take up the rights and cut the loss. What ever you do Ezra turns out to be a bad investment. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
niteowl68
Elite |
12-Jun-2015 11:59
Yells: "God Bleess You" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Touched a 5 year historical low now... 27.5c |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Demostation
Supreme |
12-Jun-2015 11:20
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Possible. Maybe they want to dilute holdings of certain people.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
Qanghoo
Supreme |
12-Jun-2015 11:18
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Good qn. Why not < rights at > px? This seems to be the problem with recent rts. All issued at cheap cheap px n huge quantity, so much so that share px all collapse. Eg, Pac Andes, China Fishery, Yamada, Swiber ....
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
niteowl68
Elite |
12-Jun-2015 11:12
Yells: "God Bleess You" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Could it be that they want to increase number of shares and float in mkt? |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Demostation
Supreme |
12-Jun-2015 11:03
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
If including sub for rights, then roughly you need to reserve " one lot" money for one lot you have invested. Was wondering why Ezra did not plan on one for one rights at a higher price instead of " two rights" for " one share" at about half the price? NB : Rights issue 200 rights for 100 shares. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
niteowl68
Elite |
12-Jun-2015 10:28
Yells: "God Bleess You" |
||||
|
x 0
x 1 Alert Admin |
This thread so quiet now... recommendation is to buy with CPF. I had already loaded up maximum using CPF... at the low price here. Kept some spare CPF monies to take up rights share. Am looking at 100% gain before I sell as I had done it before with my CPF investments when time was not a factor. With patience, profits will come. I ever make 200% gain before on PTCL under CPF when I sold it not counting all the dividends I collected for more than a decade! |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Zoroex
Member |
12-Jun-2015 10:23
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
RSI now around 14. extremely oversold. may rebound anytime |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Lucky03
Elite |
11-Jun-2015 23:15
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
From OCBC Investment Research
Home >> Research Ezra Holdings: Upgrade to HOLD By Low Pei Han Fri, 5 Jun 2015, 14:42:22 SGT Following the announcement by Ezra Holdings on 30 May 2015 that it is proposing to raise gross proceeds of about US$300m from a rights issue and convertible bonds issue, the group?s share price has retreated 22% in three trading sessions. The market has already been expecting potential fundraising moves by Ezra, given its upcoming financial obligations, but the amount that is expected to be raised could have surprised the market. We assume that the maximum 2.02b new shares are issued in the rights issue in our ex-rights SOTP valuation, update the market values of the group?s listed entities, such that our fair value estimate (ex-rights) is S$0.25, while the cum-rights value is S$0.32 (takes into account a larger net debt position which would be alleviated by the rights issue). Given that the share price has corrected to S$0.305 vs. our cum-rights fair value of S$0.32, we raise our rating to HOLD. Price decline following proposed rights and bonds issue Following the announcement by Ezra Holdings on 30 May 2015 that it is proposing to raise gross proceeds of about US$300m from a rights issue and convertible bonds issue, the group?s share price has retreated from S$0.39 on 29 May to close at S$0.305 yesterday, down 22% in three trading sessions. The market has already been expecting potential fundraising moves by Ezra, given its upcoming financial obligations, but the amount that is expected to be raised could have taken the market by surprise. Most of the proceeds for repaying debt About 62% of the gross proceeds will be used to repay S$225m of fixed rate notes due Sep 2015, and 35% to repay S$150m of perpetual securities. In the event Ezra only undertakes the rights issue and not the bonds issue, it will use the net proceeds from the rights issue to partially repay the S$225 million fixed rate notes due Sep 2015. Apart from this, the group will utilise internal cash resources and available credit lines for funding the repayment of the S$225m fixed rate notes. HOLD with S$0.32 fair value (to drop to S$0.25 post rights) As at 25 May 2015, Mr. Lee Kian Soo and Mr. Lionel Lee held ~24.7% of the existing share capital of Ezra, and given that both have undertaken to fully subscribe for the rights issue, and the remaining 75.3% will be fully underwritten by Credit Suisse and DBS, it is quite likely that the group would be able to raise the proposed US$150m from the rights issue, should shareholders approve it in an EGM to be convened. We assume that the maximum 2.02b new shares are issued in the rights issue in our ex-rights SOTP valuation, update the market values of the group?s listed entities, such that our fair value estimate (ex-rights) is S$0.25, while the cum-rights value is S$0.32 (takes into account a larger net debt position which would be alleviated by the rights issue). Given that the share price has corrected to S$0.305 vs. our cum-rights fair value of S$0.32, we raise our rating to HOLD. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Lucky03
Elite |
11-Jun-2015 22:32
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Actually the opposite. Funds has been saying sell until 2-3 days ago that they either recommend trading buy or upgrade from sell to hold.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Aloser
Member |
11-Jun-2015 22:28
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
It is scary whenever danger appears and shouting " load up" ....
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||