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Latest Forum Topics / ThaiBev    Last:0.43    +0.005  Post Reply
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vivacious
Supreme
25-Jun-2024 09:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		BeerCo IPO still alive!
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Joelton
Supreme
25-Jun-2024 08:18     
 
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 Alert Admin
Analysts maintain ' buy' on ThaiBev following updates, including on long-awaited BeerCo IPO
 
Analysts at UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) and DBS Group Research are keeping &ldquo buy&rdquo on Thai Beverage Y92 0.00%   (ThaiBev) following the company&rsquo s recently held Annual Information Meeting and analyst meeting.
 
In their June 23 report, DBS analysts highlight that the long-awaited BeerCo IPO remains part of ThaiBev&rsquo s strategic value unlocking agenda, as the company actively explores multiple options to maximise value for shareholders. One such option includes an equity partnering with a global brewer.
 
In terms of partnership, ThaiBev is looking out for strategic fit, valuation and culture fit, the analysts say. They note that the company is aiming for early to mid-2025, when market conditions are expected to improve on lower interest rates and US presidential election uncertainty is resolved.
 
As such, DBS believes that the BeerCo IPO is a key share price re-rating catalyst, adding that an equity partnership with a global brewer will be key to act as an anchor valuation. The frontrunner is likely to be Budweiser APAC, with its significant investment capacity. The analysts believe that Budweiser&rsquo s APAC&rsquo s global premium portfolio would complement ThaiBev&rsquo s existing mainstream focused portfolio. 
 
&ldquo Nonetheless, we believe Asahi should not be discounted as it has sufficient investment capacity to come in as a minority shareholder, which is preferred by ThaiBev&rsquo s management. In addition, it owns the second largest Japanese whisky company, Nikka, which has a global distribution network that ThaiBev could leverage on to grow its international premium spirits portfolio on a global scale,&rdquo the analysts point out.
 
Meanwhile, UOBKH analysts Llelleythan Tan and Heidi Mo point out ThaiBev&rsquo s possible divestments, as its stake in Frasers Property TQ5 0.00% has been earmarked as a non-core asset and may potentially be divested. However, they believe this is unlikely given Frasers Property&rsquo s share price being at an all-time low. 
 
&ldquo On the other hand, ThaiBev&rsquo s stake in Fraser and Neave (F& N) is considered a strategic investment given the operating synergies and collaborations with ThaiBev&rsquo s nonalcoholic beverages segment. However, management did mention that if the valuation was acceptable, the group would consider divesting its F& N stake,&rdquo they add.
 
In response to future growth drivers for the spirits segment, ThaiBev mentioned that the group has implemented a premiumisation strategy to attract a different customer profile and improve its international spirits portfolio. 
 
UOBKH analysts note that this was driven by the recent acquisitions of Larsen cognac and Cardrona Distillery in FY2023, which boast higher margins as compared with its domestic spirits stock-keeping unit (SKUs). Despite political tension in Myanmar, ThaiBev expects Grand Royal to continue its strong performance in FY2024.
 
Tan and Mo also expect ThaiBev&rsquo s beer subsidiary in Vietnam &mdash Sabeco &mdash to increase its average selling prices (ASPs) by 10%-15% in 2QFY2026 to pass on the higher excise taxes to customers. 
 
&ldquo In anticipation of the ASP hikes, we reckon that this would induce forward buying from customers, resulting in higher sales volumes in 4QFY2025/1QFY2026. However, beer sales volumes would likely normalise subsequently in 2QFY2026 as demand tapers off, although this may be mitigated by consumers down-trading to ThaiBev&rsquo s mass-market beer portfolio,&rdquo they note.
 
UOBKH has a lower target price on ThaiBev at 57 cents compared to 70 cents previously due to the re-rating of the company&rsquo s peer EV/ebitda multiples since its last update, while DBS keeps its target price at 69 cents.
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n3wbie
Elite
21-Jun-2024 22:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi, not sure any kakis managed to join the annual investors meeting today and had any notes to share?

1. Sabeco IPO seems to remain on the table with focus to unlock best valuation for shareholders this is a priority and not rushing it

2. Vietnam proposed increase in excise tax not a concern given reference to historical cycles of such raises. Much better than Thailand as there is sufficient lead time for companies to plan how to best pass on the cost to customers. Management talked about as long as it remains a level playing field and doesnt disadvantage any parties, it is fine and manageable, being part and parcel of the business

3. Building a new brewery in Cambodia to capture another fast growing market like in Vietnam

4. Premiumization of the product portfolio. Key to improving overall margins and earnings quality

5. Discussion around legacy holding of Frasers Property plans to divest this non-core holding but need to be considered in the approach
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JessTrang
Veteran
19-Jun-2024 10:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks bro. Lets see whether will it touch $0.40..

n3wbie      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 23:22) Posted:

The macro and geopolitical uncertainty is unfortunately an overhang that needs to be addressed for the re-rating to come through

JessTrang      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 22:24) Posted:

they more interested in this news rather than below link...
top 500 companies in SEA, thaibev stands at 33...

https://fortune.com/asia/ranking/southeast-asia-500/search/
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JessTrang
Veteran
19-Jun-2024 10:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yup, must consider carefully first.. no hurry to enter. Takes weeks to move 2cents but only a few days to down 5cents..

MARKWONG      ( Date: 19-Jun-2024 09:57) Posted:

Wait patiently to eat, price is good but downwards needs some patient now. Once stabilized RSI up then can consider. 

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MARKWONG
Senior
19-Jun-2024 09:57     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wait patiently to eat, price is good but downwards needs some patient now. Once stabilized RSI up then can consider. 
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Johnsnow
Elite
19-Jun-2024 07:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		If can go to 45 will be nice and 40
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n3wbie
Elite
18-Jun-2024 23:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The macro and geopolitical uncertainty is unfortunately an overhang that needs to be addressed for the re-rating to come through

JessTrang      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 22:24) Posted:

they more interested in this news rather than below link...
top 500 companies in SEA, thaibev stands at 33...

https://fortune.com/asia/ranking/southeast-asia-500/search/

n3wbie      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 21:04) Posted:

Thaksin, Thai PM Caught Up in Legal Cases as Crisis Deepens
  • Thaksin faces trial for alleged royal insult in 2015 interview
  • Legal cases pose risk to Srettha-led government&rsquo s stability
Former Thai leader  Thaksin Shinawatra  faces a trial in a royal insult case while a top court ordered his ally and Prime Minister  Srettha Thavisin  to submit more evidence in a case seeking his ouster, deepening a political crisis that&rsquo s gripped the Southeast Asian nation.
Thaksin, a two-time former prime minister and the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai party, was arraigned under Thailand&rsquo s stringent lese majeste law that protects the royal family from criticism. The 74-year-old politician was granted bail after his lawyer posted a 500,000 baht ($13,590) bond.

Hours after Thaksin was indicted, Thailand&rsquo s Constitutional Court asked Srettha &mdash who heads the Pheu Thai-led coalition government &mdash to furnish more documents and evidence in the case seeking his removal. This was in relation to allegations of ethics violations in appointing a cabinet minister who spent time in prison.

While the outcomes of the cases are far from certain, the litigations pose risks to Srettha&rsquo s government that was formed in the aftermath of last year&rsquo s messy general election. They also signal the possible unraveling of a deal that saw Pheu Thai and a clutch of pro-royalist and military-aligned parties joining hands to take power and paved the way for Thaksin&rsquo s return from a 15-year exile.

The political uncertainty has rattled Thailand&rsquo s financial markets, prompting foreign investors to pull almost $4 billion from the nation&rsquo s stocks and bonds. The benchmark SET Index of stocks has slumped to a near four-year low, ranking it the worst-performer of all global bourses tracked by Bloomberg in the past year, while the baht is Asia&rsquo s worst performer after the Japanese yen this year.

&ldquo Rising political risks have dampened any investor optimism about Thailand&rsquo s quick economic recovery,&rdquo said Varorith Chirachon, an executive director at SCB Asset Management Co. &ldquo The lingering legal cases against Srettha and key political parties will probably derail government&rsquo s attempts and focus in implementing much-needed economic policies and stimulus.&rdquo

The Thai stocks index pared gains in the afternoon session when it got a chance to react to court news. It ended morning session 1% higher but is now down 0.6%.

The charges against Thaksin, 74, stem from an interview he gave in Seoul in 2015 that prosecutors deemed had breached Article 112 of Thailand&rsquo s penal code. It carries a maximum jail term of 15 years for each offense of defaming the monarchy.

The attorney general last month decided to indict Thaksin, saying there was enough evidence to press ahead with a trial. Thaksin has rejected the charges and his lawyer has vowed to contest the case in the court.

&ldquo The case is baseless &mdash it&rsquo s fruit from a toxic tree,&rdquo Thaksin told reporters on June 8, in his first public comments about his legal troubles, which stem from remarks he made in 2015 in the wake of the military takeover. &ldquo It&rsquo s an example that shows how charges are abused after a coup.&rdquo

The court seized Thaksin&rsquo s passport and ordered him to be present on Aug. 19 when it will begin scrutinizing the evidence in the case.

Thaksin is currently on parole after being sentenced in corruption cases. He&rsquo s due to walk free after his royally commuted jail term ends in August.
He held the country&rsquo s top political office from 2001 until being ousted in a 2006 coup. His sister Yingluck Shinawatra, whose government was overthrown by a coup, remains in exile after leaving Thailand in 2017 before a court sentenced her to five years in prison for dereliction of duty over a controversial rice purchase program.

Srettha&rsquo s Troubles

The legal trouble for Srettha meanwhile arises from a petition by a group of 40 senators who alleged &ldquo serious violation of ethical standards&rdquo in the April appointment of Pichit Chuenban, a former lawyer for the influential Shinawatra family. Pichit was not qualified to become a minister after being sentenced to six months in jail in 2008 for attempting to bribe court officials while representing Thaksin, according to the senators.

Although Pichit resigned from the cabinet last month, saying he wanted to save Srettha from any legal troubles, it hasn&rsquo t stopped the court from probing the accusation against the prime minister. Srettha has said he was confident he could weather the court scrutiny, adding that his decision to appoint Pichit followed the law.

Srettha now has 15 days to furnish fresh evidence. The court will review the case again on July 10.

The constitutional court will also resume hearing a case on whether to disband the pro-democracy Move Forward party over its pledge to amend Thailand&rsquo s lese majeste law on July 3, it said in a statement. The party, which won the most seats in last year&rsquo s election, is seen as the biggest threat to the royalist establishment.

Move Forward has said it plans to &ldquo fight tooth and nail&rdquo against the dissolution threat, saying its loss would amount to an attack on democracy. 


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JessTrang
Veteran
18-Jun-2024 22:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		they more interested in this news rather than below link...
top 500 companies in SEA, thaibev stands at 33...

https://fortune.com/asia/ranking/southeast-asia-500/search/

n3wbie      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 21:04) Posted:

Thaksin, Thai PM Caught Up in Legal Cases as Crisis Deepens
  • Thaksin faces trial for alleged royal insult in 2015 interview
  • Legal cases pose risk to Srettha-led government&rsquo s stability
Former Thai leader  Thaksin Shinawatra  faces a trial in a royal insult case while a top court ordered his ally and Prime Minister  Srettha Thavisin  to submit more evidence in a case seeking his ouster, deepening a political crisis that&rsquo s gripped the Southeast Asian nation.
Thaksin, a two-time former prime minister and the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai party, was arraigned under Thailand&rsquo s stringent lese majeste law that protects the royal family from criticism. The 74-year-old politician was granted bail after his lawyer posted a 500,000 baht ($13,590) bond.

Hours after Thaksin was indicted, Thailand&rsquo s Constitutional Court asked Srettha &mdash who heads the Pheu Thai-led coalition government &mdash to furnish more documents and evidence in the case seeking his removal. This was in relation to allegations of ethics violations in appointing a cabinet minister who spent time in prison.

While the outcomes of the cases are far from certain, the litigations pose risks to Srettha&rsquo s government that was formed in the aftermath of last year&rsquo s messy general election. They also signal the possible unraveling of a deal that saw Pheu Thai and a clutch of pro-royalist and military-aligned parties joining hands to take power and paved the way for Thaksin&rsquo s return from a 15-year exile.

The political uncertainty has rattled Thailand&rsquo s financial markets, prompting foreign investors to pull almost $4 billion from the nation&rsquo s stocks and bonds. The benchmark SET Index of stocks has slumped to a near four-year low, ranking it the worst-performer of all global bourses tracked by Bloomberg in the past year, while the baht is Asia&rsquo s worst performer after the Japanese yen this year.

&ldquo Rising political risks have dampened any investor optimism about Thailand&rsquo s quick economic recovery,&rdquo said Varorith Chirachon, an executive director at SCB Asset Management Co. &ldquo The lingering legal cases against Srettha and key political parties will probably derail government&rsquo s attempts and focus in implementing much-needed economic policies and stimulus.&rdquo

The Thai stocks index pared gains in the afternoon session when it got a chance to react to court news. It ended morning session 1% higher but is now down 0.6%.

The charges against Thaksin, 74, stem from an interview he gave in Seoul in 2015 that prosecutors deemed had breached Article 112 of Thailand&rsquo s penal code. It carries a maximum jail term of 15 years for each offense of defaming the monarchy.

The attorney general last month decided to indict Thaksin, saying there was enough evidence to press ahead with a trial. Thaksin has rejected the charges and his lawyer has vowed to contest the case in the court.

&ldquo The case is baseless &mdash it&rsquo s fruit from a toxic tree,&rdquo Thaksin told reporters on June 8, in his first public comments about his legal troubles, which stem from remarks he made in 2015 in the wake of the military takeover. &ldquo It&rsquo s an example that shows how charges are abused after a coup.&rdquo

The court seized Thaksin&rsquo s passport and ordered him to be present on Aug. 19 when it will begin scrutinizing the evidence in the case.

Thaksin is currently on parole after being sentenced in corruption cases. He&rsquo s due to walk free after his royally commuted jail term ends in August.
He held the country&rsquo s top political office from 2001 until being ousted in a 2006 coup. His sister Yingluck Shinawatra, whose government was overthrown by a coup, remains in exile after leaving Thailand in 2017 before a court sentenced her to five years in prison for dereliction of duty over a controversial rice purchase program.

Srettha&rsquo s Troubles

The legal trouble for Srettha meanwhile arises from a petition by a group of 40 senators who alleged &ldquo serious violation of ethical standards&rdquo in the April appointment of Pichit Chuenban, a former lawyer for the influential Shinawatra family. Pichit was not qualified to become a minister after being sentenced to six months in jail in 2008 for attempting to bribe court officials while representing Thaksin, according to the senators.

Although Pichit resigned from the cabinet last month, saying he wanted to save Srettha from any legal troubles, it hasn&rsquo t stopped the court from probing the accusation against the prime minister. Srettha has said he was confident he could weather the court scrutiny, adding that his decision to appoint Pichit followed the law.

Srettha now has 15 days to furnish fresh evidence. The court will review the case again on July 10.

The constitutional court will also resume hearing a case on whether to disband the pro-democracy Move Forward party over its pledge to amend Thailand&rsquo s lese majeste law on July 3, it said in a statement. The party, which won the most seats in last year&rsquo s election, is seen as the biggest threat to the royalist establishment.

Move Forward has said it plans to &ldquo fight tooth and nail&rdquo against the dissolution threat, saying its loss would amount to an attack on democracy. 

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n3wbie
Elite
18-Jun-2024 21:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thaksin, Thai PM Caught Up in Legal Cases as Crisis Deepens
  • Thaksin faces trial for alleged royal insult in 2015 interview
  • Legal cases pose risk to Srettha-led government&rsquo s stability
Former Thai leader  Thaksin Shinawatra  faces a trial in a royal insult case while a top court ordered his ally and Prime Minister  Srettha Thavisin  to submit more evidence in a case seeking his ouster, deepening a political crisis that&rsquo s gripped the Southeast Asian nation.
Thaksin, a two-time former prime minister and the de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai party, was arraigned under Thailand&rsquo s stringent lese majeste law that protects the royal family from criticism. The 74-year-old politician was granted bail after his lawyer posted a 500,000 baht ($13,590) bond.

Hours after Thaksin was indicted, Thailand&rsquo s Constitutional Court asked Srettha &mdash who heads the Pheu Thai-led coalition government &mdash to furnish more documents and evidence in the case seeking his removal. This was in relation to allegations of ethics violations in appointing a cabinet minister who spent time in prison.

While the outcomes of the cases are far from certain, the litigations pose risks to Srettha&rsquo s government that was formed in the aftermath of last year&rsquo s messy general election. They also signal the possible unraveling of a deal that saw Pheu Thai and a clutch of pro-royalist and military-aligned parties joining hands to take power and paved the way for Thaksin&rsquo s return from a 15-year exile.

The political uncertainty has rattled Thailand&rsquo s financial markets, prompting foreign investors to pull almost $4 billion from the nation&rsquo s stocks and bonds. The benchmark SET Index of stocks has slumped to a near four-year low, ranking it the worst-performer of all global bourses tracked by Bloomberg in the past year, while the baht is Asia&rsquo s worst performer after the Japanese yen this year.

&ldquo Rising political risks have dampened any investor optimism about Thailand&rsquo s quick economic recovery,&rdquo said Varorith Chirachon, an executive director at SCB Asset Management Co. &ldquo The lingering legal cases against Srettha and key political parties will probably derail government&rsquo s attempts and focus in implementing much-needed economic policies and stimulus.&rdquo

The Thai stocks index pared gains in the afternoon session when it got a chance to react to court news. It ended morning session 1% higher but is now down 0.6%.

The charges against Thaksin, 74, stem from an interview he gave in Seoul in 2015 that prosecutors deemed had breached Article 112 of Thailand&rsquo s penal code. It carries a maximum jail term of 15 years for each offense of defaming the monarchy.

The attorney general last month decided to indict Thaksin, saying there was enough evidence to press ahead with a trial. Thaksin has rejected the charges and his lawyer has vowed to contest the case in the court.

&ldquo The case is baseless &mdash it&rsquo s fruit from a toxic tree,&rdquo Thaksin told reporters on June 8, in his first public comments about his legal troubles, which stem from remarks he made in 2015 in the wake of the military takeover. &ldquo It&rsquo s an example that shows how charges are abused after a coup.&rdquo

The court seized Thaksin&rsquo s passport and ordered him to be present on Aug. 19 when it will begin scrutinizing the evidence in the case.

Thaksin is currently on parole after being sentenced in corruption cases. He&rsquo s due to walk free after his royally commuted jail term ends in August.
He held the country&rsquo s top political office from 2001 until being ousted in a 2006 coup. His sister Yingluck Shinawatra, whose government was overthrown by a coup, remains in exile after leaving Thailand in 2017 before a court sentenced her to five years in prison for dereliction of duty over a controversial rice purchase program.

Srettha&rsquo s Troubles

The legal trouble for Srettha meanwhile arises from a petition by a group of 40 senators who alleged &ldquo serious violation of ethical standards&rdquo in the April appointment of Pichit Chuenban, a former lawyer for the influential Shinawatra family. Pichit was not qualified to become a minister after being sentenced to six months in jail in 2008 for attempting to bribe court officials while representing Thaksin, according to the senators.

Although Pichit resigned from the cabinet last month, saying he wanted to save Srettha from any legal troubles, it hasn&rsquo t stopped the court from probing the accusation against the prime minister. Srettha has said he was confident he could weather the court scrutiny, adding that his decision to appoint Pichit followed the law.

Srettha now has 15 days to furnish fresh evidence. The court will review the case again on July 10.

The constitutional court will also resume hearing a case on whether to disband the pro-democracy Move Forward party over its pledge to amend Thailand&rsquo s lese majeste law on July 3, it said in a statement. The party, which won the most seats in last year&rsquo s election, is seen as the biggest threat to the royalist establishment.

Move Forward has said it plans to &ldquo fight tooth and nail&rdquo against the dissolution threat, saying its loss would amount to an attack on democracy. 
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vivacious
Supreme
18-Jun-2024 16:31     
 
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 Alert Admin 		gosh, become ultimate long term shareholder liao
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JessTrang
Veteran
18-Jun-2024 15:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Already stuck in the blackhole millions light years apart from earth😂

zillion      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 13:50) Posted:

loong term hold(hole) in the pocket, move to other fast moving stocks. why get stuck?
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JessTrang
Veteran
18-Jun-2024 15:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks bro! Cheers

n3wbie      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 13:35) Posted:

Hi good afternoon bro - it' s by DBS research, don' t think I can attach the full report but highlights copied below for reference. 
 
  • Southeast Asia (SEA) beer markets are attractive with combined manufacturer sales value of USD22bn and potential for > 15% annual volume growth in certain countries for the next 3-5 years
  • Armed with minimum USD1bn in capital, global brewers could be keen to invest in SEA to introduce their fresh, aspirational, premium brand portfolio
  • Partial partnership is likely the best risk-to-reward entry route for interested brewers with ambitions to gain immediate access to SEA 
  • ThaiBev  stands out as the most attractive SEA partner a global brewer partnership could be a major re-rating catalyst


SEA is a significant beer market with pockets of attractive opportunities.  With combined manufacturer sales value of USD22bn in 2023, equivalent to 40% of China&rsquo s and 30% of the USA&rsquo s, SEA is a sizable market. Vietnam and Thailand stand out as the two largest markets, with estimated market sales value of USD6.5bn and USD5.1bn, respectively. Notably, SEA houses some of the few remaining countries in the world with high potential for volume growth, given > 15% pre-COVID five-year 2014-2019 CAGR, such as Myanmar and Cambodia. 

Brewers keen to enter SEA are flushed with capital and can bring value with their premium portfolio.  We identified several brewers who could be keen to enter SEA given their interest in bidding for Sabeco (Vietnam brewery) back in 2017 and currently actively looking out for M& A opportunities. These brewers have an estimated investment capacity of USD1.3bn to USD10.8bn, which could be utilised for their SEA entry or expansion. Apart from capital, they bring along a portfolio of premium brands. These brands could be positioned as fresh, aspirational brands to drive the next leg of growth in more mature beer markets like Thailand. In addition, they could expand margins and accelerate profitability growth, as seen in our case study of Heineken-CR Beer in China.

ThaiBev well-positioned to partner with a global brewer, which will be a major re-rating catalyst.  ThaiBev stands out as the ideal partner with its localised knowledge, established distribution channels and brewing infrastructure  in multiple sizable beer markets (Thailand and Vietnam) and emerging presence in fast-growing beer markets (Myanmar and Cambodia). A brewery partnership could likely be well received by the market and revive its BeerCo IPO at an attractive valuation, which could turn out be a re-rating catalyst for the company.

 

JessTrang      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 09:55) Posted:

  Morning Bro, where to find this report ->   We explored a potential partnership between Thai Beverage and a global brewer in an earlier report?

​ They threw away the shares like it' s going to impact thaibev revenue significantly, lol
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zillion
Master
18-Jun-2024 13:50     
 
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 Alert Admin 		loong term hold(hole) in the pocket, move to other fast moving stocks. why get stuck?
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n3wbie
Elite
18-Jun-2024 13:35     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi good afternoon bro - it' s by DBS research, don' t think I can attach the full report but highlights copied below for reference. 
 
  • Southeast Asia (SEA) beer markets are attractive with combined manufacturer sales value of USD22bn and potential for > 15% annual volume growth in certain countries for the next 3-5 years
  • Armed with minimum USD1bn in capital, global brewers could be keen to invest in SEA to introduce their fresh, aspirational, premium brand portfolio
  • Partial partnership is likely the best risk-to-reward entry route for interested brewers with ambitions to gain immediate access to SEA 
  • ThaiBev  stands out as the most attractive SEA partner a global brewer partnership could be a major re-rating catalyst


SEA is a significant beer market with pockets of attractive opportunities.  With combined manufacturer sales value of USD22bn in 2023, equivalent to 40% of China&rsquo s and 30% of the USA&rsquo s, SEA is a sizable market. Vietnam and Thailand stand out as the two largest markets, with estimated market sales value of USD6.5bn and USD5.1bn, respectively. Notably, SEA houses some of the few remaining countries in the world with high potential for volume growth, given > 15% pre-COVID five-year 2014-2019 CAGR, such as Myanmar and Cambodia. 

Brewers keen to enter SEA are flushed with capital and can bring value with their premium portfolio.  We identified several brewers who could be keen to enter SEA given their interest in bidding for Sabeco (Vietnam brewery) back in 2017 and currently actively looking out for M& A opportunities. These brewers have an estimated investment capacity of USD1.3bn to USD10.8bn, which could be utilised for their SEA entry or expansion. Apart from capital, they bring along a portfolio of premium brands. These brands could be positioned as fresh, aspirational brands to drive the next leg of growth in more mature beer markets like Thailand. In addition, they could expand margins and accelerate profitability growth, as seen in our case study of Heineken-CR Beer in China.

ThaiBev well-positioned to partner with a global brewer, which will be a major re-rating catalyst.  ThaiBev stands out as the ideal partner with its localised knowledge, established distribution channels and brewing infrastructure  in multiple sizable beer markets (Thailand and Vietnam) and emerging presence in fast-growing beer markets (Myanmar and Cambodia). A brewery partnership could likely be well received by the market and revive its BeerCo IPO at an attractive valuation, which could turn out be a re-rating catalyst for the company.

 

JessTrang      ( Date: 18-Jun-2024 09:55) Posted:

  Morning Bro, where to find this report ->   We explored a potential partnership between Thai Beverage and a global brewer in an earlier report?

​ They threw away the shares like it' s going to impact thaibev revenue significantly, lol

n3wbie      ( Date: 15-Jun-2024 19:08) Posted:

Interesting angles highlighted by DBS on the upcoming special consumption tax on alcoholic drinks in Vietnam and potential partnerships to drive rerating. Seems like there are active M& A opportunities in this space in SEA.

---
 
Premiumise to counter higher alcohol taxes in Vietnam
  • Vietnam government plans to increase special consumption tax from current 65% to 100% by 2030
  • Increase to be done in two stages, a 15ppt increase in 2026 and gradual 20ppt increase over subsequent 4 years
  • Based on history and similar case studies from other countries, there has been limited impact on long-term volume trend Maintain BUY with TP S$0.69


 

What&rsquo s New

Vietnam' s Finance Ministry has announced a proposal to increase the special consumption tax (SCT) on alcoholic drinks on a step-wise basis to 100% by 2030. Under this proposal, the SCT on beer is expected to rise from the current 65% to 80% by 2026, and then gradually to 100% by 2030. Based on media news announcement, the initial 15ppt increase in 2026 is expected to result in a &ldquo 20% increase in beer prices in 2026, compared to 2025&rdquo which the media article quoted from Vietnam&rsquo s Finance Ministry proposal. For the period from 2026 to 2030, the SCT increase will be more gradual, leading to more moderate inflation-like price increases of around 2-3% annually. The draft proposal is currently pending approval from lawmakers. Link to Reuters article:  Vietnam plans raising special consumption tax on alcoholic drinks to 100% by 2030

 

Our views

Based on our calculations, our estimate is that the 15ppt increase in SCT in 2016 should result in an increase in selling prices by about 9%, all else constant (instead of the 20% indicated by the article). Assuming the SCT increases to 100% of the manufacturer selling price by 2030, the total price increase should be around 20% over that period. 

Thai Beverage' s subsidiary, Sabeco, is the market leader in Vietnam' s mainstream beer market. As a mainstream player, it may be disproportionately affected by the upcoming 9% price increase in 2026, given that its consumers tend to be more price sensitive. However, we believe this impact should be temporary. Between 2015 and 2018, the SCT increased by 15ppt, yet the overall industry volume had continued to trend upwards. Likewise, in Thailand and the Philippines, the long-term trend of alcohol consumption growth has remained robust despite tax increases. Sabeco' s long-term growth prospects remain strong, and we believe the introduction of a global premium brand will diversify its portfolio to cater to a less price-sensitive segment, enhancing resilience to higher taxes. While this news development may cause concerns on overall beer consumption, past instances prove that impact tend to be short-lived. We reiterate our BUY call on Thai Beverage with TP of S$0.69 and view a major global brewer partnership as a significant catalyst for re-rating. (We explored a potential partnership between Thai Beverage and a global brewer in an earlier report:  Who could tie the knot in the Golden Peninsula?)


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JessTrang
Veteran
18-Jun-2024 09:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		  Morning Bro, where to find this report ->   We explored a potential partnership between Thai Beverage and a global brewer in an earlier report?

​ They threw away the shares like it' s going to impact thaibev revenue significantly, lol

n3wbie      ( Date: 15-Jun-2024 19:08) Posted:

Interesting angles highlighted by DBS on the upcoming special consumption tax on alcoholic drinks in Vietnam and potential partnerships to drive rerating. Seems like there are active M& A opportunities in this space in SEA.

---
 
Premiumise to counter higher alcohol taxes in Vietnam
  • Vietnam government plans to increase special consumption tax from current 65% to 100% by 2030
  • Increase to be done in two stages, a 15ppt increase in 2026 and gradual 20ppt increase over subsequent 4 years
  • Based on history and similar case studies from other countries, there has been limited impact on long-term volume trend Maintain BUY with TP S$0.69


 

What&rsquo s New

Vietnam' s Finance Ministry has announced a proposal to increase the special consumption tax (SCT) on alcoholic drinks on a step-wise basis to 100% by 2030. Under this proposal, the SCT on beer is expected to rise from the current 65% to 80% by 2026, and then gradually to 100% by 2030. Based on media news announcement, the initial 15ppt increase in 2026 is expected to result in a &ldquo 20% increase in beer prices in 2026, compared to 2025&rdquo which the media article quoted from Vietnam&rsquo s Finance Ministry proposal. For the period from 2026 to 2030, the SCT increase will be more gradual, leading to more moderate inflation-like price increases of around 2-3% annually. The draft proposal is currently pending approval from lawmakers. Link to Reuters article:  Vietnam plans raising special consumption tax on alcoholic drinks to 100% by 2030

 

Our views

Based on our calculations, our estimate is that the 15ppt increase in SCT in 2016 should result in an increase in selling prices by about 9%, all else constant (instead of the 20% indicated by the article). Assuming the SCT increases to 100% of the manufacturer selling price by 2030, the total price increase should be around 20% over that period. 

Thai Beverage' s subsidiary, Sabeco, is the market leader in Vietnam' s mainstream beer market. As a mainstream player, it may be disproportionately affected by the upcoming 9% price increase in 2026, given that its consumers tend to be more price sensitive. However, we believe this impact should be temporary. Between 2015 and 2018, the SCT increased by 15ppt, yet the overall industry volume had continued to trend upwards. Likewise, in Thailand and the Philippines, the long-term trend of alcohol consumption growth has remained robust despite tax increases. Sabeco' s long-term growth prospects remain strong, and we believe the introduction of a global premium brand will diversify its portfolio to cater to a less price-sensitive segment, enhancing resilience to higher taxes. While this news development may cause concerns on overall beer consumption, past instances prove that impact tend to be short-lived. We reiterate our BUY call on Thai Beverage with TP of S$0.69 and view a major global brewer partnership as a significant catalyst for re-rating. (We explored a potential partnership between Thai Beverage and a global brewer in an earlier report:  Who could tie the knot in the Golden Peninsula?)

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n3wbie
Elite
15-Jun-2024 19:08     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Interesting angles highlighted by DBS on the upcoming special consumption tax on alcoholic drinks in Vietnam and potential partnerships to drive rerating. Seems like there are active M& A opportunities in this space in SEA.

---
 
Premiumise to counter higher alcohol taxes in Vietnam
  • Vietnam government plans to increase special consumption tax from current 65% to 100% by 2030
  • Increase to be done in two stages, a 15ppt increase in 2026 and gradual 20ppt increase over subsequent 4 years
  • Based on history and similar case studies from other countries, there has been limited impact on long-term volume trend Maintain BUY with TP S$0.69


 

What&rsquo s New

Vietnam' s Finance Ministry has announced a proposal to increase the special consumption tax (SCT) on alcoholic drinks on a step-wise basis to 100% by 2030. Under this proposal, the SCT on beer is expected to rise from the current 65% to 80% by 2026, and then gradually to 100% by 2030. Based on media news announcement, the initial 15ppt increase in 2026 is expected to result in a &ldquo 20% increase in beer prices in 2026, compared to 2025&rdquo which the media article quoted from Vietnam&rsquo s Finance Ministry proposal. For the period from 2026 to 2030, the SCT increase will be more gradual, leading to more moderate inflation-like price increases of around 2-3% annually. The draft proposal is currently pending approval from lawmakers. Link to Reuters article:  Vietnam plans raising special consumption tax on alcoholic drinks to 100% by 2030

 

Our views

Based on our calculations, our estimate is that the 15ppt increase in SCT in 2016 should result in an increase in selling prices by about 9%, all else constant (instead of the 20% indicated by the article). Assuming the SCT increases to 100% of the manufacturer selling price by 2030, the total price increase should be around 20% over that period. 

Thai Beverage' s subsidiary, Sabeco, is the market leader in Vietnam' s mainstream beer market. As a mainstream player, it may be disproportionately affected by the upcoming 9% price increase in 2026, given that its consumers tend to be more price sensitive. However, we believe this impact should be temporary. Between 2015 and 2018, the SCT increased by 15ppt, yet the overall industry volume had continued to trend upwards. Likewise, in Thailand and the Philippines, the long-term trend of alcohol consumption growth has remained robust despite tax increases. Sabeco' s long-term growth prospects remain strong, and we believe the introduction of a global premium brand will diversify its portfolio to cater to a less price-sensitive segment, enhancing resilience to higher taxes. While this news development may cause concerns on overall beer consumption, past instances prove that impact tend to be short-lived. We reiterate our BUY call on Thai Beverage with TP of S$0.69 and view a major global brewer partnership as a significant catalyst for re-rating. (We explored a potential partnership between Thai Beverage and a global brewer in an earlier report:  Who could tie the knot in the Golden Peninsula?)
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MrBear12
Supreme
14-Jun-2024 14:21     
 
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Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
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 Alert Admin 		Free

mav1ryan      ( Date: 14-Jun-2024 14:16) Posted:

need to pay for this software?

BinderyT      ( Date: 14-Jun-2024 10:59) Posted:

Keep track of your dividends.   Then you will know over the years whether you are back in the black.

I use -  https://www.sharesight.com/

It automatically keep track of dividends.
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mav1ryan
Veteran
14-Jun-2024 14:16     
 
mav1ryan About Contact  Quote this Post!   Mood: happy
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 Alert Admin 		need to pay for this software?

BinderyT      ( Date: 14-Jun-2024 10:59) Posted:

Keep track of your dividends.   Then you will know over the years whether you are back in the black.

I use -  https://www.sharesight.com/

It automatically keep track of dividends.
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stonkmaster
Veteran
14-Jun-2024 13:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Too many retail in this stock. Need retail to sell before it can shoot up.

satruz      ( Date: 14-Jun-2024 10:16) Posted:

Ya lor... gone are its glory days, where it can chiong.... now just a lazy elephant making us lose money 😴 😴

vicloo      ( Date: 14-Jun-2024 09:44) Posted:

Jialat, regardless gd or bad news it is heading down :
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