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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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kvyang
Veteran |
29-Jun-2021 09:58
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Shorties off today? :( | ||||
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PhillipTan
Supreme |
29-Jun-2021 09:57
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At least NOL shares still worth $1.30 when delisting, SMM is only 10% of that now
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uiop1223
Supreme |
29-Jun-2021 09:54
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Shiok! Longists thot SMM is another SIA. SIA is the icon of sg and T needs to save for ?face?. What is SMM? Another NOL? 😂 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣
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Yatsa13
Veteran |
29-Jun-2021 09:52
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traderben, you are probably the category that want others to sell, as i said spent the whole of last night reading all the good, bad and ugly comments. don' t do rubbish to others. temasek has made it clear, the rights must go thru to the other side. if i rmb correctly temasek took a controlling stake in olam to fend off attacks from someone who shorted big time. still think lobster is balance with his comments. today vol is low. q at 13c left with 2m+ should be getting it
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talonn
Member |
29-Jun-2021 09:50
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And the bleed continues :( | ||||
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uiop1223
Supreme |
29-Jun-2021 09:47
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Come on? such $495m is a drop in ocean for DBS but worth a lot to SMM. Remember DBS got hit by a $700m+ write off for loans to oil related company (ye ? It share price recovered immediately.
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Yatsa13
Veteran |
29-Jun-2021 09:40
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after much thought. the price now is at huge discount. q for 13c small amt. follow my heart after reading all the comments. some just want others to sell. lobster is more balance and insightful. those who not sure what i am saying can go to his comments this is just mho after spending whole of last night reading the comments
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TraderBen
Supreme |
29-Jun-2021 09:40
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pray hard dont have another short wave coming..will bring it down to 10 cents..
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etilatrop
Member |
29-Jun-2021 09:40
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SMM is hopeless. Instead of clawing for orders and/or carrying out strict austerity measures, it is obsessed with eroding SH value, i.e. another rights issue mere months after the previous one and focusing on a value-less merger. Meanwhile, Chinese and Korean yards have been focused on getting orders. In a mere span of months, they have gotten billions worth of orders (albeit some cancellations). They are also turning profitable too. While customers should avoid SMM or KOM, why? 1) Higher costs. Even with a merged entity, costs in SG cannot rival that of Chinese and Korean yards. Some economies of scales will come at huge expenses to SH for restructuring. 2) SMM used to be more stable but it is now financially terminal and it obviously does not have TH backing. Who would want to do business with an unstable and dying entity? SMM is just burning cash, asking for cash, losing liquidity unnecessarity with debt repayments/ customer payment delays, with NO good intake of orders. The recent win with GE for Sofia Offshore was surprising as it was, and was probably before SMM' s finances turned disaster. 3) Yards in SG were attractive because of flexible payment terms and credit financing. But look at SMM now. After Transocean delays in payment, the company seems on the verge of collapsing, now need rights exercise to beg for cash, and SURPRISE stock price collapse (again). I wonder why? Oh, much of the cash raised in the last rights exercise was NOT used to conduct business to get more revenue, it was spent to repay SCI loans, to better SCI. This round, even if money is raised by the rights exercise, it imo will again be used to repay debt instead of actually using the money to attract and discharge orders. Raise the money for " working capital and other general corporate purposes, including debt servicing" ? Debt service should be TH' s priority while working capital is the last, based on experience with SCI. GOT WHAT USE?? Give money to DBS and bailout KC only. Utterly unbeneficial for SMM. 4) If you look at Chinese yards and Korean yards, they have enormous government support. The CCP furnishes its yards with orders for vessels for its SOEs as well as with orders for military vessels. The Korean government offers her yards generous subsidies such that even Japan has to protest. Meanwhile, what happens in SG? Well, we send a ministar who can' t tell cotton from wool to visit SMM once or twice, and wayang a little. Oh, and a SWF that is doing its best to accelerate SMM' s demise at the benefit for its holdings in other entities, at the expense of the nation' s position as a marinetime hub. Other commenters are right that it is another NOL and Hyflux in the making. Does SMM have a future? 1) The higher oil and gas prices are positive. But prices need to be sustained and supported with demand before SMM can see more tangible orders. Currently the prices are based more on short term supply shocks and optimistic speculations. 2) It is naive to just say that humans always need energy so SMM will always be relevant. Other yards can produce vessels and rigs. In fact, Chinese and Korean yards have gotten themselves windfalls of LNG vessel orders etc over the past year, while SMM pathetically GOT ALMOST NOTHING TO SHOW. The US shale industry is still going to be a threat (assuming they lose discipline) for the next 5 to 8 years, while drillers at sweet spots in the Permian and EF basins achieve prices only ultradeep rigs can match. Then there is Iran' s supply coming into play. SMM' s model as a smaller company was to cater for higher tech and more complex and customized orders, but a merger goes in the opposite direction, trying to get larger lower tech jobs that Korean and Chinese yards already has market share of. (The Chinese and Korean yards have divided the market among themselves already by silent or secret consensus already, to reduce competition. Already the Chinese shipyards are producing dry bulk, container and naval ships while the Korean yards are building more sophisticated vessels such as LPG and LNG carriers, floating storage regasification units (FSRUs), chemical tankers, containers and naval warships....The Koreans are eating in local yards' market share while our yards have difficulties eating into Korea' s and China' s, because our yards are shackled by TH and incompetent management, thus cannot fight properly. Look at what they are focused on even in this dire period? Fleecing SMM SH? 3) Hope lies in a few areas. The OPEC+ nations and shale restraining themselves to support prices to support their national budgets and SH interests. Brazil, Venezula, and other countries get desperate and urgent enough to tap their marine resources before peak fossil oil/gass demand passes. The current rig and floater utilization levels are rising but still slightly short of 70%, but if it rises to 80-85%, dayrates may improve and uncompetitive SMM may get more orders trickled to it. Scraping rates and non-viability of reinstating cold-stacked resources > 2 years. Currently oil supplies are expected to hit hard supply shocks around the end of 2022 due to extreme under-investment in explorations and extraction over the past decade. 4) Unfortunately, such glimmers of hope will surely be overriden by neglect and saboing from SMM' s largest SH, that seems to be more focused on screwing minority counterparts instead of fostering the business. While the current adminstration voices support for the 77,000 marine jobs, it is unlikely for tangible support either. Even Jap yards are merging and their government is stepping in, but SG yards are left to wither. SG as a maintime hub is merely a slogan. At last count, Chinese yards numbered over 1200, KOM and SMM merging is NO USE AT ALL without similar govt backing and more competent management. A ' merger' would just burden SMM with more debt, liabilities and excess capacity. P.S. If you follow SMM' s business management, it is ridiculous. Operate EJA in Brazil, in the end, Keppel gets the FPSO order from petrobras this year. In 2016, as oil prices were horrible and finances were tight, SMM had FIVE acquisitions exercises! In 2019, closed Tanjong Kling Shipyard 4 years early and take the impairments just when cash is so badly needed. Supposedly got cost savings, YEAH RIGHT. We only see $162 million of asset impairments and provisions. Burn cash so fast, of course not enough. SMM will keep having rights exercises to no end. This rights exercise is not the first and definitely far from the last. TH and the management are sinking the vessel and other SH are the ones to drown. The last few years, especially the last year, attest to this conclusion. Unfortunately, many SMM SH are trapped and also helpless to whip SMM into shape. |
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Skycal
Senior |
29-Jun-2021 09:38
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suddenly today bo volume..... kateks going to cover soon? | ||||
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Yatsa13
Veteran |
29-Jun-2021 09:32
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here is very confusing. going thru the chats make me headache. one said wait for 10c, another said after xr latest anouncement means thatr temasek will takeover smm but of course many hurdles. before they do all these they need the rights to be successful. someone mentioned terp 0.124 lobster is correct, temasek won' t allow the price go too low. clearly temasek just threw in a spanner in the market and cause soem ripple effects. y2jchris said why wait 10c walau so confusing. maybe i should buy some since it is so cheap now plus my free jv shares. thinking if it makes complete good sense
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TigerPlay
Master |
29-Jun-2021 09:31
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Wah...talk until drop to 4cts, fear factor to the max laiow leh. Wait pp scared until pant drop leh.Can sense alot of pp panic laiow, possible that those panic one all sold their position laiow hor...logically if pp panic very badly, by now should have sold all correct? Then im my opinion, no more to sell should start to go up again right? No? And with rumour of takeover at 15cts, provide more incentive to push it up, no? just my tot only | ||||
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dcproperty
Senior |
29-Jun-2021 09:30
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Good, follow your heart then. Please short more SCM and DBS. Don' t short change yourself
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Richardlai
Master |
29-Jun-2021 09:28
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This is small change for DBS. They can squeeze it back from its customers like us oops.
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naoshingo
Elite |
29-Jun-2021 09:27
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Big guns supporting at 130.
At least for us small retailers can sleep well at night 😷 |
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Speediman
Veteran |
29-Jun-2021 09:23
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DBS is also a public listed company. If DBS is forced to absorb huge losses, it will not do its SH justice. SCM SH should just vote this rights issues and JV with keppel out. SCM should not be paying a single cent to take over Keppel' s junk. These days if you want to dispose anything, you have to pay a disposal fee. SCM should instead charge Keppel a disposal fee to absorb its yards. | ||||
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dcproperty
Senior |
29-Jun-2021 09:19
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That' s right. For those who think it will drop to $0.04 after rights issued. I have good news for you. Suppose no one take up rights issue, and DBS has to absorb 33% (which is S$495m). And after rights exercise, it drops to S$0.04. That means DBS incurs losses of half the S$495m. Eventually, DBS has to write off S$274m. If that is in your mind, please do yourself a favour, can go and short DBS lo. Don' t wait.
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TheDuellist
Senior |
29-Jun-2021 08:51
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Those of you waiting for below 8 cents, I have news for you. When something similar to SIA happened, many were waiting for below $3. Today, they are still waiting.....while many others have flipped the counter for the umpteenth time due to its volatility. But good to see such players around waiting at the sidelines and not hogging the queues. Please contort stay at the sides |
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Observers
Elite |
29-Jun-2021 08:49
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if share price above 8 cents on last day of rights application, say is 9 cents, you dont want to subscribe excess? hold a few days can earn more than 10% leh!
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desmodeus
Veteran |
29-Jun-2021 08:47
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yalor. can cfd short first
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