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News affecting Banks
Luzern
Supreme
06-Sep-2018 08:49     
 
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Yells: "Holding Cash is also a Strategy."
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 Alert Admin 		Only OCBC did share buy back yesterday, 100,000 shares 11.07 to 11.33
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 16:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Country Garden (China number 3 Developer and the Company behind Forest City) .......was trading at 17.24HKD (on 8 June 2018) vs 11.18HKD (5 Sep 2018).............. wink
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 15:30     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No worries, I have my mechanism in place.laugh..Just like when I cut loss on my failed long trade recently on DBS.

shangli      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:28) Posted:

yes  but don over shoot as well

Luzern      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:18) Posted:

I am on shorts with Banks
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shangli
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 15:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		yes  but don over shoot as well

Luzern      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:18) Posted:

I am on shorts with Banks.

shangli      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:17) Posted:

just dont touch bank, wait for it drop further. the market sentiment quite negativ
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 15:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I am on shorts with Banks.

shangli      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:17) Posted:

just dont touch bank, wait for it drop further. the market sentiment quite negative

Luzern      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:16) Posted:

Bloomberg
 

" Emerging-Market Contagion Fears Rotate From Currencies to Stocks

Bloomberg News
&lrm September&lrm &lrm 5&lrm , &lrm 2018&lrm &lrm 9&lrm :&lrm 24&lrm &lrm AM Updated on &lrm September&lrm &lrm 5&lrm , &lrm 2018&lrm &lrm 1&lrm :&lrm 55&lrm &lrm PM
  • Morgan Stanley says stay short on emerging-market currencies
  • This is becoming about contagion, illiquidity: Deutsche Bank"


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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 15:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bloomberg
 

" Emerging-Market Contagion Fears Rotate From Currencies to Stocks

Bloomberg News
 
  • Morgan Stanley says stay short on emerging-market currencies
  • This is becoming about contagion, illiquidity: Deutsche Bank"
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shangli
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 15:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		just dont touch bank, wait for it drop further. the market sentiment quite negative

Luzern      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 15:16) Posted:

Bloomberg
 

" Emerging-Market Contagion Fears Rotate From Currencies to Stocks

Bloomberg News
&lrm September&lrm &lrm 5&lrm , &lrm 2018&lrm &lrm 9&lrm :&lrm 24&lrm &lrm AM Updated on &lrm September&lrm &lrm 5&lrm , &lrm 2018&lrm &lrm 1&lrm :&lrm 55&lrm &lrm PM
  • Morgan Stanley says stay short on emerging-market currencies
  • This is becoming about contagion, illiquidity: Deutsche Bank"

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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 14:48     
 
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 Alert Admin 		"

China' s land auction premiums drop to lowest levels in over 3 years



Major developers scaling back on land-buying spree, and curbs bite on home prices
5 Sep 2018 - 2:01pm "
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 13:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		And yes, I am vested in Banks......all shorts positions, especially in UOB as IMO, the price of UOB and DBS is too wide.......either DBS is going to move up to close the gap or UOB should move down to close the gap. With current market sentiment, the chances of UOB moving down to close the gap is higher.
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 13:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What a coincident......we were just discussing this last night after Johor Minister say Foreigner welcome to buy Forest City.  My friend was like Malaysia " flip prata again" .  I  said where got flip prata. Malaysia PM only said will not issue Visa for foreigner buying Forest City, he never say cannot sell.  Whereas Johor Minister say foreigner welcome to buy, but did not say can get Visa...keke........

Then Today this came out......
" Dr M: Chinese nationals can buy Forest City units, but no residential visas..."
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 13:18     
 
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 Alert Admin 		In my opinion, of the 3 Banks, DBS will be most impacted due to

1) Larger loan to Greater China of (> S$100B) 32% of Loan vs UOB and OCBC of ~20%
2) ~47% of loan to Building and Construction and residential mortages.
3) The recent PR disaster of one of their Management Employee (designation as per said Employee' s LinkedIn claim).  It took 2 weeks and after much public out roar  before DBS  post " he is no longer with the bank"   note, no longer with the Bank, they did not say no longer with DBS.  The deposite rate in Q3 reports will give us an idea on the impact of this incident.
4) Exposure to Indonesia whose currency is at risk.


 
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 12:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		General trend of Banks is still down............how low can it gets?.............It is very likely to be much much cheaper after the Q3 and Q4 results.   

IMO, DYODD

Luzern      ( Date: 05-Sep-2018 11:12) Posted:

A good description of the current price movement of the Banks now.

" Just like stirring a heap of ashes.........you get the occasional burst of flame.............."

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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 11:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		" .....Recent concerns over the US-China trade war has led to DBS share price falling 8% over the past one month, given the lender' s 32% loan exposure to Greater China which is higher than its two peers 20% average. ..."

Quoted from The Edge Singapore website
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 11:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		A good description of the current price movement of the Banks now.

" Just like stirring a heap of ashes.........you get the occasional burst of flame.............."
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 11:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		For reference, at the peak of the oil gas & marine crisis in Aug 2016, DBS was at ~S$14.60, UOB was at ~S$17.50, OCBC was at ~S$8.30.
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 10:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		USD vs CNY went from 6.27 on 12 April 2018 to 6.83 on 5 Sept 2018 after the Chinese Government intervened to stabilized the exchange rate.  It went as high as ~6.93 before the intervention.

6.27 to 6.83, that is about ~8.93%....... which in effect neutralised a 10% increase in Tariff, hence one of the possible reason for the decision to go for 25% tariff by US.
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 10:47     
 
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 Alert Admin

2018 : U.S. trade in goods with China



NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
Month Exports Imports Balance
January 2018 9,835.3 45,788.0 -35,952.8
February 2018 9,806.1 39,067.6 -29,261.5
March 2018 12,382.1 38,256.7 -25,874.6
April 2018 10,268.0 38,230.0 -27,962.0
May 2018 10,610.8 43,797.4 -33,186.6
June 2018 11,115.6 44,599.5 -33,483.8
TOTAL 2018 64,017.9 249,739.2 -185,721.3



2017 : U.S. trade in goods with China



NOTE: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
Month Exports Imports Balance
January 2017 9,961.1 41,343.1 -31,382.0
February 2017 9,735.8 32,804.3 -23,068.5
March 2017 9,719.2 34,186.9 -24,467.8
April 2017 9,805.7 37,465.6 -27,660.0
May 2017 9,862.2 41,783.1 -31,920.9
June 2017 9,717.4 42,289.2 -32,571.7
July 2017 9,979.1 43,589.2 -33,610.1
August 2017 10,828.3 45,817.8 -34,989.4
September 2017 10,911.7 45,429.7 -34,518.0
October 2017 12,963.4 48,167.7 -35,204.2
November 2017 12,765.0 48,127.8 -35,362.8
December 2017 13,644.8 44,465.7 -30,820.9
TOTAL 2017 129,893.6 505,470.0 -375,576.4
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 10:45     
 
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 Alert Admin 		How China might respond toUS' s US$200B Tariff, repost:

Luzern         ( Date: 03-Sep-2018 16:24) Posted:
 
US hit China with another US200B as soon as this week making a total of tariff on US$250B.  China probably going to retaliate with additional US$80B tariff (the max China can impose) and also up the tariff % on all the US$130B of US imports. In addition, they will probably losen the CNY exchange rates and let market drive it lower against USD.  They would probably  also be selling US Bonds around the dates that US have big Bonds auction to force US to pay a higher % rate for selling bonds.  And for good measure, US Companies will be targeted by China like the US Airlines, etcs.
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 10:05     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Q3 results for Banks & Property Counters will be skewed by the last minute rush to buy condos just before the implementation of the Property Cooling Meaures, etcs. 

Q4 will show a more accurate impact of the cooling measures and the impact of the US-China Tariff being implemented.
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Luzern
Supreme
05-Sep-2018 09:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Recap/Sumary

1) Trade War US vs China US$50B by both side so far.  US is set to impost another US$200B as soon as this week.
2) Property Cooling Measures in Singapore.  Banks loan to related industry is ~50.2% (UOB),  ~47%(DBS), 40+%(OCBC) .   Q3 & Q4 results of Banks will  show the impact.     
3) Developer Charges increases an average of ~9.8%
4) Malaysia seems to be putting   on hold/re-negotiating China related investment in Malaysia, totally ~US$134B.  Affecting new loan growth in Malaysia for OCBC? This wil also affect the quality of Chinese loan our Banks have in China esp. DBS.  Think bad loan and provisions requirement in the future, 6 to 12 months?
5) Emerging Market Currencies Crisis, with Indoneasia affected as well.....probably affecting DBS the most.
6) OCBC and UOB have been doing shae buy back regularly with 50,000 to 100,000 shares.  whereas, DBS do buy backs recently to defence $25+ level with buy back of 650,000 to 800,000 shares, currently exhausting ~13% of buy back limit and spending ~S$176M.  Average buy back price is ~S$25.31.

Recalling from memory, numbers might be slightly off.  IMO, DYODD
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