| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
 Post Reply
|
|
TianjinUS$ is a gem
|
|||||
|
stockhero
Veteran |
22-Feb-2015 23:34
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Maybe you want exclude me from the ' 3 people' . I am really nobody compared to darocupcake and earlybird14 who have provided really good analysis for NOL. Nontheless, I seriously think that you are really mentally ill, very ill indeed. Anyway, I wish you and everyone here a very happy chinese new year.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
Know-Your-Stuff
Senior |
22-Feb-2015 11:16
|
||||
|
x 1
x 0 Alert Admin |
Thanks to all bro who shared their views on NOL. Since the announcement of APL, i dived in to analyze. Here' s a few key points. 1. NAV for NOL is $1.38 (or US$1.02) after sale of APL. There is a 36% upside based on book value alone. 2. Bloomberg news : US west coast employers signed a 5 years contract with the union / employees. This is a very good news. President Obama breathed a sign of relief because this will ensure US economy continue its path of recovery, 3%+ GDP growth this year. All 29 ports re-opened on Saturday night (SG time). NOL is a key liner in the west coast with about 65% concentration there. US economic recovery and this news are really good news for NOL. I expect their NOL to turn a profit this year. My personal prediction... 3. A few Wall Street investment bankers recently mentioned that container shipping has likely bottomed after 7 years. Can' t remember exactly which bankers, leave it to you to verify yourself. 4. I guessed TH took a smart calculated move to sell APL. Why sell at this time when everyone say NOL will be left with no more profitable biz after the sale. Aren' t they afraid ? It doesn' t look like it. They are the BB. 5. Based on the above. There is a possibility that TH may take it private this year after the APL sale concluded, based on the NAV or slightly higher. Or M& A with a bigger rival. Remember... stock market is forward looking. We can go on arguing here instead of taking actions. By the time it becomes a reality, the price would have soar, and it becomes a buyers' remorse.:) I believed that this is the year for NOL, my own personal view, you don' t have to agree. Time will tell if i can repeat my feat for StatsChippac, buy when everyone is said the company is dead. The rest is history. :) |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
MetalTrader3
Supreme |
22-Feb-2015 06:59
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
It is my greatest regret to have no formidable opponent in the trading realm. However, I will continue to predict to my best ability though I am GodOfPredictor :) | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
MetalTrader3
Supreme |
22-Feb-2015 06:23
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
21 Feb (Deadline: Saturday@ 2400hrs), all 3 people (Stockhero, Darocupcake & Earlybird14)- None had been able to stand up to MetalTrader' s Prediction. Happy New Year!
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
stockhero
Veteran |
21-Feb-2015 23:51
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
good idea
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
stockhero
Veteran |
21-Feb-2015 23:50
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
you are really seriously ill (mentally).
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 22:42
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Just merge the liner division with hapad llord to form the third largest carrier plus more cost cutting to be achieved by eliminating duplicated service line / division. In container industry, size is all that matter nobody cared about service quality as eveyone only wants the cheapest and widest reach for their goods. Hapad llord is good merger since it offer reach to europe and south america while APl offer reach to asia and north america, benefit everyone. Shareholders can realised their investment faster instead waiting for the bullshit return to profit by NOL management over the years, shippers from both side get to expand their export to both end of the world. Everyone wins and nobody loses ( only one lose is the short seller lol ). Merging with hapad llord also offer litte to no resistance from regulators as both carriers are from the same G6 allliance, so no major changes in market share. With Europe QE kicking in from March, we might see hapad llord taking the lead to push for NOL merger. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
hem2998
Veteran |
21-Feb-2015 22:11
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
So pending shareholder and regulatory approval for the sale of APL Logistics, Singapore?s Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) is set to become a pure play container line. The announcement of the $1.2bn sale of APL Logistics to Kintetsu World Express sees NOL selling off a business that it acquired in 1997 when it bought APL, then known as American President Lines (APL). Successive chiefs of NOL have declared ambitions to rapidly grow APL Logistics, but it never quite seemed to happen, apparently losing out to the highly capital intensive container shipping. Current NOL president and ceo Ng Yat Chung said as much on Tuesday announcing the sale explaining that the company did not have sufficient resources to develop both logistics and container shipping. Although known primarily as a container line, this is probably the only time since its very early days in the late 1960's that NOL has focused solely on liner shipping. Over the years NOL has been in the bulk shipping sector, built up significant tanker interests under AET, which it sold to MISC in 2003, and is also a player in the logistics sector. Certainly one cannot argue with the price tag that NOL achieved on the sale of APL Logistics, and booking a $900m gain will be a good boost to its balance sheet. However, the sale also comes at time when the company has consistently struggled to bring its liner shipping business back to profitability. Of the last six years from 2009 ? 2014 NOL has only made a profit in one of them - 2010. Last year saw NOL post a net loss of $260m. In its earnings release the company chose to focus on its improving core EBIT where it lost $76m in 2014, compared to a $167m loss in the previous year. However, this figure was bolstered by $67m core EBIT profit from APL Logistics, liner arm APL reported a core EBIT loss of $143m. On Tuesday Ng stated, "Our goal is always to get liner back to profitability as soon as possible." How NOL will actually get there is rather less clear. Ng did not sugar coat the current situation saying prospects were uncertain given the current macro-economic environment. "What is certain is the overcapacity. The continuing labour situation (in the US West Coast) is bit of a concern for the whole industry," he said. While lower fuel costs are of a benefit, Ng said the longer term impact on freight rates remained uncertain. He also referenced a continued focus on cost savings. It seems that every year NOL announces an impressive achievement in cost savings yet somehow this never manages to bridge the gap to profitability. Against this background of uncertainty the company is in a somewhat curious place in the world of global mainline container shipping where scale and size seem to trump all. APL is ranked as the world's 10th largest container line by Alphaliner with 551,678 teu in capacity and a 2.9% market share. With its newbuilding completed it is set to be overtaken Hamburg Sud, currently in the number 11 slot. APL's largest vessels are 14,000 teu and so far it has showed no signs of joining the 18,000 ? 20,000 teu fray. The costs of doing so would be significant and very quickly gobble up the $900m gain from the sale of APL Logistics. This leaves question of mergers and acquisitions, be it as the acquirer or the acquired. Quizzed as to whether NOL would sell its liner shipping division if it continued to lose money Ng described the question as "hypothetical". But he did also say, "Your question is really are we open to options on the liner business. As part of business process we evaluate all options ? and all means all." |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
sgng123
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 22:03
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Screw those NOL board directors, mismanagement ship for almost 4 years and no substantial cost saving achieved compare to other rival carrier they only need like 1-2 year then bleeding stop and return to profit. Liquidate the whole group and i gonna bet it would return more than double the asset value currently lol, should had sacked them in 2013 and ask a banker to do a complete divestment of group assets. Sell all the ships / port terminals / containers boxes etc and leave all the old customers to the mercy of market force, some would go bankrupt and some would suffer huge losses but nope of share holder concern lol. After APL logistic divestment completed, voices of further asset disposal would get louder since investor see great potential in unlocking value from asset sales. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
ascend88
Master |
21-Feb-2015 21:39
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Maybe with oocl | ||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
sgng123
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 21:24
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
West coast labor issue almost resolved and 1 less headwind for ship to move north. By the way don believe in the brokerage recommendation, they fail horribly at NOL prediction. The net proceed from APL disposal is most likely used for paying off debt, so no special dividend for shareholder they only got a shot in the arm to strengthen the book value of NOL aka increase in asset value that all. The big question is when would TH privatised NOL or carrier mergers deal, either both of event would lead to more asset disposal to give fair value for share holders since NOL like to hold and keep lot of non revenue generating assets. This is exciting year for ship not due to improving result but more of the M & A in shipping business. Pray hard and hang on. NOL business model on container shipping is outdated and should move toward commercialisation and cut all those freebies/ subsidies to exporters. Sell eveything and return value to investor way to go.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
ascend88
Master |
21-Feb-2015 21:23
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
A group of shipping companies and a powerful dockworkers union clinched a tentative labor deal on Friday after nine months of negotiations, settling a dispute that disrupted the flow of cargo through 29 U.S. West Coast ports and snarled trans-Pacific maritime trade with Asia.
The settlement, confirmed in a joint statement by the two sides, was reached three days after U.S. Labor Secretary Thomas Perez arrived in San Francisco on Tuesday to broker a deal with the help of a federal mediator who had joined in the talks six weeks earlier. The White House called the deal "a huge relief" for the economy, businesses and workers. President Barack Obama urged the parties "to work together to clear out the backlogs and congestion in the West Coast ports as they finalize their agreement," the White House said in a statement. The 20,000 dockworkers covered by the tentative five-year labor accord have been without a contract since July. Tensions arising from the talks have played out since last fall in chronic cargo backups that have increasingly slowed freight traffic at the ports, which handle nearly half of all U.S. maritime trade and more than 70 percent of the nation's imports from Asia. |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
|
|||||
|
MetalTrader3
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 18:57
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear NOL Mgmt, Now, it is time to prove your worth! (Unlocking Value, Benefits from Low Oil Price, Special Dividend & Better Balance Sheet) Show the world who you are! Your Time Is NOW! |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
ysh2006
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 18:11
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
two years ago I got fooled by Baker Tech for giving 10c div for disposing it PPL shipyatd after xd the share price dropped more than the dividend price by 15c and I got caught at capital loss by 10% too after Baker Tech become almost no business left (shell coy)...untill now have not recovered yet capital loss....
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
danger
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 17:24
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
NOL: " Price target $1.53, expect 10.55 ct special dividend," says CIMB
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
danger
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 17:21
|
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
NOL announced that it was selling wholly-owned APL Logistics for US$1.2bn, netting a gain of US$900m. We upgrade from Hold to Add because the share price should jump with the unlocking of the value of APLL into the balance sheet. Furthermore, it has a dividend policy of 20% of net profit after tax, and we expect shareholders to enjoy a windfall dividend of 10.55 Scts this year, or a dividend yield of 10.7%. The upward revision in the target price is wholly due to the US$900m disposal gain. Our higher target price is based on an unchanged CY15 P/BV of 1.1x (average since 2001), and adding to it the expected CY15 dividend of 10.55 Scts |
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
MetalTrader3
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 06:27
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear Darocupcake & Earlybird14, Previously both of you think my prediction is a joke. Since you think is a joke, Both of you can join too. I, MetalTrader, have no issue with challenging 3 different people (each 10 stocks, so total 30 different stocks) at the same time :) Name 10 stocks & predict the 23 Feb (Monday) closing price. Deadline: 21 Feb (Saturday) @ 2400hrs
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
MetalTrader3
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 03:39
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear Stockhero, * You can say you are cheating, but certainly not a prediction. I hereby challenge you on prediction (not on cheating- average), please name 10 stocks & predict the 23 Feb (Monday) closing price. We Shall have a round of any 10 stocks you choose (prediction)! Prove to me your prediction is accurate, not by cheating! After you stated above, I will state & tabulate the result on 23 Feb (Mon) closing. Point System: i) Correct Up/Down from current stock (1 Point per stock) ii) Whoever have the closest Price Difference from current stock (1 Point per stock) iii) Whoever got the perfect closing Price (Additional 2 Point per stock) Total Achievable Point PerStock: 4 points Deadline: 21 Feb (Saturday) @ 2400hrs Dear Stockhero, *** Let me tell you what is your prediction (StockHero): Current Price: $1.02 You are taking the average ($0.85 to $1.25). Duration: 2 weeks. This is not prediction. It is the " average" , mark up and down 20%. This is call cheating. Dear Stockhero, *** Let me tell you what is MY Prediction (MetalTrader): 1 Nov- When NOL was low. I mark up around 35%+ from 2014 previous current price. 35%+ mark up is $1.065. Back in 2014, i stated $1.065 to $1.50. In additional, I indicated reputation bet (if my prediction of NOL do not rise above $1.065, i will leave sharejunction forever) & stated timeline. Beside i also stated sales of APL price 1.2 Billion in 2014 (Which was predicted before it happened in 2015- Sales of APL 1.2 Billion) It was before sales of APL Logistics actualized.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
MetalTrader3
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 00:35
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear Stockhero, Do not come in & talk crap about predict when the stock is in good shape. When NOL was in 2014, my prediction was already there. You did not even give a word LOL. Now, don' t try tell me you predict.
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||
|
MetalTrader3
Supreme |
21-Feb-2015 00:32
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
||||
|
x 0
x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear Stockhero, one who want to wear a tall cap, please go read at when was i predict and what was the price then. Where were you?
|
||||
| Useful To Me Not Useful To Me | |||||