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chartistkao1
Supreme |
11-Oct-2022 09:45
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monitoring US' s recession in june 2023 Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T& Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. https://www.ft.com/content/f9d90465-1036-430d-8f54-21d075a7b3ec PMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns US recession &lsquo likely&rsquo in 6 to 9 months Downturn threatens to spark fresh sell-off in Wall Street stocks and &lsquo panic&rsquo in credit markets Jamie Dimon says early signs of distress are evident in the financial system © Reuters Share on twitter (opens new window) Share on facebook (opens new window) Share on linkedin (opens new window) Share Save Joshua Franklin in New York 8 HOURS AGO 64 Print this page JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon predicted the American economy will probably tip into a recession next year, warning the downturn threatened to spark &ldquo panic&rdquo in credit markets and wipe an additional 20 per cent from the value of US stocks. The comments from Dimon, whose economic pronouncements are closely followed by investors, followed similar remarks last month by billionaire investor Ken Griffin and point to a growing consensus among senior figures on Wall Street over the likelihood of a US recession. In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Dimon listed rising interest rates and Russia&rsquo s invasion of Ukraine as factors stoking the risk of a downturn in 2023. &ldquo These are very, very serious things, which I think are likely to push the US and the world &mdash I mean, Europe is already in recession &mdash and they&rsquo re likely to put the US in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,&rdquo Dimon was quoted as saying. Dimon said early signs of distress were evident in the financial system, pointing to the depressed market for initial public offerings and high-yield debt deals, and predicted the pain would soon spread into other areas. &ldquo The likely place you&rsquo re gonna see more of a crack and maybe a little bit more of a panic is in credit markets,&rdquo he said. In June, Dimon had warned of an economic &ldquo hurricane&rdquo and on Monday he again encouraged investors to be &ldquo very very cautious&rdquo . He added: &ldquo If you need money, go raise it.&rdquo Recommended US banks US banks to set aside $4bn for potential losses from bad loans Asked where he saw the trough for the benchmark S& P 500 share index, which is down more than 20 per cent this year, Dimon said it may still &ldquo have a ways to go&rdquo and &ldquo could be another easy 20 per cent&rdquo . &ldquo I think the next 20 per cent will be much more painful than the first. Rates going up another 100 basis points are a lot more painful than the first 100 because people aren&rsquo t used to it.&rdquo JPMorgan, the largest US bank by assets, will report earnings on Friday. Analysts are predicting it as well as the other big banks will set aside more than $4bn to cover potential losses from bad loans in a sign of the growing pessimism around the US economy.
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
11-Oct-2022 09:31
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Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T& Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here. https://www.ft.com/content/dded71a6-2637-45ec-b8b5-da0154455c8b Montage of logos for JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley The six biggest US banks are preparing for the possibility that rising interest rates will slow the economy and result in higher credit losses Share on twitter (opens new window) Share on facebook (opens new window) Share on linkedin (opens new window) Joshua Franklin in New York yesterday 9 Print this page The biggest US banks will signal their worries about the US economy in third-quarter earnings reports starting this week, with analysts expecting they will set aside more than $4bn to cover potential losses from bad loans. The anticipated provisions will be far smaller than the ones made by lenders at the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, when they increased reserves by tens of billions of dollars to brace themselves for an economic shock that was largely avoided thanks to unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus. Now, with loan demand still growing, banks are preparing for the possibility that rising interest rates will slow the economy and result in higher credit losses &mdash a concern that has already dented bank stock prices this year. &ldquo The overall economic outlook has deteriorated somewhat and therefore it would be natural to expect some incremental pick-up in bank reserving actions,&rdquo said Ken Usdin, banking analyst at Jefferies. &ldquo At this point, there&rsquo s not a very high expectation for losses to kick up in an immediate sense. But the bigger question is what does the economy look like over the course of the next year to 18 months.&rdquo The six largest US banks by assets &mdash JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley &mdash will collectively provision about $4.5bn in loan-loss reserves in third-quarter earnings, according to analysts&rsquo estimates compiled by Bloomberg. It would be the third consecutive quarter of loan-loss provision increases by the banks. Investors will also be looking to see whether banks mark losses on loans for leveraged buyouts that they have committed to financing but have not yet been able to sell to third parties. In the second quarter, banks took hundreds of millions of dollars in mark-to-market losses. Line chart of provisions for loan losses in $bn, showing US banks have begun stockpiling loan loss provisions JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citi and Wells Fargo will disclose earnings on October 14, followed by BofA on October 17 and Goldman the next day. The KBW Bank Index is down around 22 per cent in 2022, compared with a roughly 20 per cent decline in the benchmark S& P 500 index. The fall reflects concerns that more loans will sour, even as rising interest rates help lenders boost net interest income &mdash the difference between what banks pay for deposits and what they earn from loans and other assets. &ldquo Bank stock investors, a group never prone to &lsquo enjoying the moment&rsquo , are already looking through&rdquo good news and are &ldquo worrying that we&rsquo re getting close to peak earnings&rdquo , wrote analysts at Autonomous Research. Bank executives have said US credit quality remains excellent with defaults tracking well below historical norms and companies and customers still sitting on cash accumulated during the pandemic. At an industry conference last month, JPMorgan president Daniel Pinto said: &ldquo The consumer here in the United States is in a very, very good place.&rdquo Analysts also say big US banks &mdash following stress tests organised by the Federal Reserve and new capital requirements &mdash are well positioned to weather an economic downturn. &ldquo Banks enter this period of uncertainty in a position of strength,&rdquo said Jason Goldberg, banking analyst at Barclays. Under a methodology put in place in 2020 &mdash called current expected credit losses, or &ldquo Cecl&rdquo &mdash banks are required to set reserves in good times so they have sufficient capital buffers when losses occur. &ldquo The difference in the outlook for the economy from the end of June, compared to the end of September, has clearly weakened. And therefore, according to Cecl, reserve building has to go up,&rdquo said Gerard Cassidy of RBC Capital Markets. Recommended US banks Wall Street finds a tax silver lining in down market Analysts anticipate that earnings per share across the six leading banks will decline on average about 22 per cent in the quarter. Third-quarter revenues at JPMorgan, BofA, Citi and Wells are expected to rise year on year by about 4 per cent, benefiting from higher net interest income. Goldman and Morgan Stanley, which derive a greater share of earnings from investment banking, are expected to see revenues fall because of slower dealmaking activity. &ldquo Traditional investment banking is very weak. Equity capital markets are down fairly significantly,&rdquo said Christian Bolu, an Autonomous Research analyst. The declines will sharpen the focus on banks&rsquo management of expenses and headcounts. Banks&rsquo stock and bond trading divisions &mdash on the back of volatile markets &mdash are expected to continue their strong performance in the third quarter. &ldquo Trading, generally speaking, should be up modestly from the third quarter of last year, which was a particularly strong quarter,&rdquo Barclays&rsquo Goldberg said. Additional reporting by Imani Moise
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chartistkao3
Elite |
10-Oct-2022 16:56
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US is in good economy shape but we also saw this happening https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0IHEMHc2yfY
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chartistkao3
Elite |
10-Oct-2022 16:54
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关 关 难 过 （ 1987， 1997， 2008， 2020.。 ） 关 关 过 年 关 年 关 ， 一 年 闯 一 关 ， 咬 紧 牙 根 把 生 活 过 下 去 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe2Ps_hZZLM
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chartistkao3
Elite |
10-Oct-2022 16:44
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with Fed determine to bring rater to 4.5%
how this American service the high interests?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-MmBtXohAM
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chartistkao3
Elite |
10-Oct-2022 15:51
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ocbc sharp drops after june 2021 when dividend cap was restored
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/O39.SI/history?period1=946857600& period2=1665360000& interval=1d& filter=history& frequency=1d& includeAdjustedClose=true
vs
peak deposit rate of 3.11% in 1998
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/banking-finance/uob-raises-fixed-deposit-rates-nearing-nov-1998-peak-311
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
21-Sep-2022 15:06
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buy ocbc and uob vs buy usd/sgd1.41 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwEPf-M0c7c
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
08-Aug-2022 16:33
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after the share split it makes the share the most affordable among dbs and uob
OCBC SplitsSplit Ratio
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
08-Aug-2022 15:23
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sum of its part easily worth more than $12.27 at today market
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
01-Aug-2022 16:34
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3 aug 2022 ocbc ' s coming result https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/brokers-calls/decent-start-fy2022-ocbc-higher-dividends-likely-analysts
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kaochartist
Veteran |
28-Jul-2022 15:33
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the crossing of borders from malaysia to sg
https://www.chineseweekly.com.my/news/cw%20people_221212%20liguangqian.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZ8Hxm2W5Ts& list=RDMjtUQmhKGuI& index=7
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kaochartist
Veteran |
28-Jul-2022 15:30
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before 5g,digitalisation,fintech,blockchain
https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-sg/%E6%9E%97%E7%BE%A9%E9%A0%86
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3OObGb_TWE& list=RDMjtUQmhKGuI& index=4
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kaochartist
Veteran |
28-Jul-2022 15:26
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turn dreams into reality
http://www.polymer.cn/polymernews/2017-11-1/_2017110195211727.htm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjtUQmhKGuI& list=RDMjtUQmhKGuI& start_radio=1
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kaochartist
Veteran |
28-Jul-2022 15:24
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https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E6%9D%8E%E5%85%89%E5%89%8D/1653103
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xenGY2pyyI
https://ecommons.cornell.edu/bitstream/handle/1813/57542/073.pdf
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kaochartist
Veteran |
26-Jul-2022 16:28
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https://research.sginvestors.io/2022/07/singapore-banking-monthly-phillip-securities-research-2022-07-04.html
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4508068-singapore-bank-uob-as-the-top-stock-pick-for-a-high-inflation-environment
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
27-Apr-2022 10:08
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有 没 有 在 发 生 吗 ？ 金 融 市 场 从 疫 情 爆 发 至 今 ， 无 论 是 股 市 ， 债 市 还 是 外 汇 ， 都 经 历 了 大 幅 且 快 速 的 调 整 。
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
26-Apr-2022 16:47
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB914186595985155500
https://images.app.goo.gl/vdcZ8ReTHyCC8CRx9
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
20-Apr-2022 16:35
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oct 1997 is only son of financial crisis then came daughter of financial crisis hitting sg stock market before we had sister of fiancial crisis on march 2020 https://www.reuters.com/article/markets-singapore-stocks-idUSSIN24626620081029
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
14-Apr-2022 13:13
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Two years after 1997 or oct 2008 or 2020 stock sell off you should start to prepare for the next crash which depend how they do magic will come one day
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chartistkao1
Supreme |
11-Apr-2022 08:47
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If ocbc goes below $12 again then I will wait for Dbs and uob drops below $20 to put my cpf at work
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