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MarcPh
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27-Jul-2017 08:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hahaa, you wrote this to the press?

http://www.straitstimes.com/forum/letters-in-print/smaller-lots-can-help-cushion-bond-losses

It is shocking to hear that the nation suffered an unprecedented $1.35 billion of local note defaults since November 2015

Many of the bondholders are retail investors, with some possibly losing their life savings. One way to soften this blow is to have smaller lots of, say, $50,000 instead of $250,000, which is currently the case for investing in corporate bonds.

I hope parties such as the banks, issuers, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Securities Investors Association (Singapore) can work together to offer bonds in smaller lots of $50,000 so that retail investors can participate and not worry about having to suffer massive losses.
 
paiseh, $1.35bio is understated. it did not include those who coaxed their investors into debt-extension (default on maturity) and Noble' s recent default on their perp bonds.


MarcPh      ( Date: 27-Jul-2017 07:55) Posted:

All things equal, the yields are smaller for smaller denominations.

john_ric      ( Date: 25-Jul-2017 11:27) Posted:

why dont they lower it to 50 000 sgd ??


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MarcPh
Senior
27-Jul-2017 07:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		All things equal, the yields are smaller for smaller denominations.

john_ric      ( Date: 25-Jul-2017 11:27) Posted:

why dont they lower it to 50 000 sgd ??

john_ric      ( Date: 25-Jul-2017 11:25) Posted:

denomination 250000sgd a bro. a lot of money.


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john_ric
Supreme
25-Jul-2017 11:27     
 
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 Alert Admin 		why dont they lower it to 50 000 sgd ??

john_ric      ( Date: 25-Jul-2017 11:25) Posted:

denomination 250000sgd a bro. a lot of money. .

MarcPh      ( Date: 25-Jul-2017 09:16) Posted:

ARA crossed 102 convincingly in aftermarket trade
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john_ric
Supreme
25-Jul-2017 11:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		denomination 250000sgd a bro. a lot of money. .

MarcPh      ( Date: 25-Jul-2017 09:16) Posted:

ARA crossed 102 convincingly in aftermarket trades

MarcPh      ( Date: 13-Jul-2017 10:06) Posted:

$300mio issued at 5.2%. They kept their words and launched at 5.2%
Commendable
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MarcPh
Senior
25-Jul-2017 09:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		ARA crossed 102 convincingly in aftermarket trades

MarcPh      ( Date: 13-Jul-2017 10:06) Posted:

$300mio issued at 5.2%. They kept their words and launched at 5.2%
Commendable.

MarcPh      ( Date: 12-Jul-2017 10:17) Posted:

SUPER HOT CAKE!!! Better than Netlink Trust!

Issuer: ARA Asset Management Ltd
Issuer/Bond Rating: Unrated
Currency: SGD
Rank:  Subordinated Perpetual Securities
Tenor: Perpetual, callable in 5yrs
Coupon: Indicative 5.5% area (expect final coupon 5- 5.2% area)
Coupon Stepup and reset: 300bps step-up & reset from year 7
Denomination: SGD250K
Use of Proceeds: General corporate purposes, refinance existing borrowings, financing investments, working capital
Change of Control: Issuer call at Par if John Lim, The Straits Trading Company Ltd, Cheung Kong Property Ltd. Warburg Pincus and/or Avic Trust cease to own in aggregate 30% shareholding interest of the Issuer
Dividend Pusher and Stopper: Yes
Listing/Clearing: SGX-ST/CDP
Lead Managers & Bookrunners: OCBC, DBS, UOB

 


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MarcPh
Senior
25-Jul-2017 08:44     
 
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 Alert Admin

Rich Singapore investors stuck as local bond restructuring drags

http://www.todayonline.com/business/rich-singapore-investors-stuck-local-bond-restructuring-drags

Singapore is faster than most other countries in resolving insolvencies involving assets of all kinds, according to the World Bank. But when it comes to the city&rsquo s bond market in particular, resolutions have been slower than in some other major markets, according to restructuring advisers.
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MarcPh
Senior
21-Jul-2017 18:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		just sharing. I am not professional.

You have a nice weekend.

TenPips      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 17:01) Posted:

Thank you.

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 16:04) Posted:

Sorry, I do not know much about ordinary shares but a week ago Hyflux shares went up from 54 to 56 because rumours emerged that Tuaspring has attracted interests.

However, yesterday' s profit warning dampened the spirit and created panic-selling among the new investors who jumped in based on the rumour
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TenPips
Veteran
21-Jul-2017 17:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thank you.

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 16:04) Posted:

Sorry, I do not know much about ordinary shares but a week ago Hyflux shares went up from 54 to 56 because rumours emerged that Tuaspring has attracted interests.

However, yesterday' s profit warning dampened the spirit and created panic-selling among the new investors who jumped in based on the rumour.

TenPips      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:56) Posted:

What is the probability that Tuaspring can be offloaded? The divestment plan was announced in April. So far, no updates yet. 
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MarcPh
Senior
21-Jul-2017 16:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Sorry, I do not know much about ordinary shares but a week ago Hyflux shares went up from 54 to 56 because rumours emerged that Tuaspring has attracted interests.

However, yesterday' s profit warning dampened the spirit and created panic-selling among the new investors who jumped in based on the rumour.

TenPips      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:56) Posted:

What is the probability that Tuaspring can be offloaded? The divestment plan was announced in April. So far, no updates yet. 

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:04) Posted:

Thanks Upz, oh yes you are right, there are little quantity of CPS sold cheaply this morning. Probably force-sold or panic-sold by the ordinary shares profit warning.

I think there is no sweat for the CPS, Hyflux porbably can' ' t wait to redeem them. It' s very sad for hyflux, they have a honest business model, led by a diligent lady who had been fair to shareholders and bondholders all these years. Now, Hyflux realized that they have been too burdened by the Tuaspring power plant which it depleting their overall margins and causing them to incur huge debts. In the end, insiders told me that they felt 白 忙 了 一 场 .

Such irony, now that the company is not profitable but cash rich for the mid-term. So selfishly, in terms of credit analysis, the remaining high-yield preference shares and perp bonds will be quite safe because these transitions (offloading Tuaspring), will allow Hyflux to reduce their debts and sit on a larger amount of cash (already a lot now).

Take care
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TenPips
Veteran
21-Jul-2017 13:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What is the probability that Tuaspring can be offloaded? The divestment plan was announced in April. So far, no updates yet. 

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 13:04) Posted:

Thanks Upz, oh yes you are right, there are little quantity of CPS sold cheaply this morning. Probably force-sold or panic-sold by the ordinary shares profit warning.

I think there is no sweat for the CPS, Hyflux porbably can' ' t wait to redeem them. It' s very sad for hyflux, they have a honest business model, led by a diligent lady who had been fair to shareholders and bondholders all these years. Now, Hyflux realized that they have been too burdened by the Tuaspring power plant which it depleting their overall margins and causing them to incur huge debts. In the end, insiders told me that they felt 白 忙 了 一 场 .

Such irony, now that the company is not profitable but cash rich for the mid-term. So selfishly, in terms of credit analysis, the remaining high-yield preference shares and perp bonds will be quite safe because these transitions (offloading Tuaspring), will allow Hyflux to reduce their debts and sit on a larger amount of cash (already a lot now).

Take care.

Upz123      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:36) Posted:

Nice sharing. Thanks, MarcPh.
Am still holding on to my bonds.  Did not monitor , else may hv grabbed more of   the CPS bond at this morning 98 lo
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MarcPh
Senior
21-Jul-2017 13:04     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks Upz, oh yes you are right, there are little quantity of CPS sold cheaply this morning. Probably force-sold or panic-sold by the ordinary shares profit warning.

I think there is no sweat for the CPS, Hyflux porbably can' ' t wait to redeem them. It' s very sad for hyflux, they have a honest business model, led by a diligent lady who had been fair to shareholders and bondholders all these years. Now, Hyflux realized that they have been too burdened by the Tuaspring power plant which it depleting their overall margins and causing them to incur huge debts. In the end, insiders told me that they felt 白 忙 了 一 场 .

Such irony, now that the company is not profitable but cash rich for the mid-term. So selfishly, in terms of credit analysis, the remaining high-yield preference shares and perp bonds will be quite safe because these transitions (offloading Tuaspring), will allow Hyflux to reduce their debts and sit on a larger amount of cash (already a lot now).

Take care.

Upz123      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:36) Posted:

Nice sharing. Thanks, MarcPh.
Am still holding on to my bonds.  Did not monitor , else may hv grabbed more of   the CPS bond at this morning 98 low

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:32) Posted:

I think it' s non-event for overall bond prices. Hyflux has a proper business that is strained by Tuaspring power plant. I heard they are going to dispose it soon. The only hinderance is whether our govt is comfortable to let Hyflux dispose 100% or part of it to foreigners. The asset disposal might trigger a write-off in Hyflux' s and the market has priced in part (not all) of it. After which, Hyflux will be flooded with cash (already very cash rich). This is why i advocate holding their bonds in my  earlier writings:


Summary of Hyflux' s Strategies for the Immediate Future
  • Disposal of loss-running TuasSpring power project - Yesterday' s announcement of appointment of bankers for TuasSpring Power Project disposal will be cheered by investors althought it might result in steep loss-recognition.
  • Asset-Light - Hyflux continues to dispose stakes in matured project forprofit-recognition eg. Nantong NewSpring, Galaxy NewSpring recently.
  • Stronger Cashflow - In the last announced results, Hyflux is sitting on over $300mio with $400mio assets held-for-sale and another $190mio which will be coming in 1H17 due to the disposal of their 50% stake in GalaxySpring project.


 

Probable Moves:
  • Hyflux has a sound business model and income from municipal projects. Risk-takers could capitalize in the subdued share prices in the near future due to the potential write-offs in TuasSpring project.
  • With a stronger cash pile, the risk-adversed can sleep well with the 2018 bonds which are likely redeemed on first-call date and offers an attractive return of 7%pa (till call-date) with neligible risk of coupon default.
  • It is difficult for Hyflux to issue more perpetual bonds right now due to the crash caused by the 2016 oversupply (higher cost of pricing such instruments in the immediate future). Upon the redemption of 2018 bonds, scarcity of the remaining 2020 bonds could generate some additional capital gains and offers a 7%pa yield (till call-date) at current prices.
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Upz123
Senior
21-Jul-2017 12:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Nice sharing. Thanks, MarcPh.
Am still holding on to my bonds.  Did not monitor , else may hv grabbed more of   the CPS bond at this morning 98 low

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:32) Posted:

I think it' s non-event for overall bond prices. Hyflux has a proper business that is strained by Tuaspring power plant. I heard they are going to dispose it soon. The only hinderance is whether our govt is comfortable to let Hyflux dispose 100% or part of it to foreigners. The asset disposal might trigger a write-off in Hyflux' s and the market has priced in part (not all) of it. After which, Hyflux will be flooded with cash (already very cash rich). This is why i advocate holding their bonds in my  earlier writings:


Summary of Hyflux' s Strategies for the Immediate Future
  • Disposal of loss-running TuasSpring power project - Yesterday' s announcement of appointment of bankers for TuasSpring Power Project disposal will be cheered by investors althought it might result in steep loss-recognition.
  • Asset-Light - Hyflux continues to dispose stakes in matured project forprofit-recognition eg. Nantong NewSpring, Galaxy NewSpring recently.
  • Stronger Cashflow - In the last announced results, Hyflux is sitting on over $300mio with $400mio assets held-for-sale and another $190mio which will be coming in 1H17 due to the disposal of their 50% stake in GalaxySpring project.


 

Probable Moves:
  • Hyflux has a sound business model and income from municipal projects. Risk-takers could capitalize in the subdued share prices in the near future due to the potential write-offs in TuasSpring project.
  • With a stronger cash pile, the risk-adversed can sleep well with the 2018 bonds which are likely redeemed on first-call date and offers an attractive return of 7%pa (till call-date) with neligible risk of coupon default.
  • It is difficult for Hyflux to issue more perpetual bonds right now due to the crash caused by the 2016 oversupply (higher cost of pricing such instruments in the immediate future). Upon the redemption of 2018 bonds, scarcity of the remaining 2020 bonds could generate some additional capital gains and offers a 7%pa yield (till call-date) at current prices.


john_ric      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:16) Posted:

hyflux   issued  profit guidance. wonder how its bond  will be affectd??
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MarcPh
Senior
21-Jul-2017 12:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I think it' s non-event for overall bond prices. Hyflux has a proper business that is strained by Tuaspring power plant. I heard they are going to dispose it soon. The only hinderance is whether our govt is comfortable to let Hyflux dispose 100% or part of it to foreigners. The asset disposal might trigger a write-off in Hyflux' s and the market has priced in part (not all) of it. After which, Hyflux will be flooded with cash (already very cash rich). This is why i advocate holding their bonds in my  earlier writings:


Summary of Hyflux' s Strategies for the Immediate Future
  • Disposal of loss-running TuasSpring power project - Yesterday' s announcement of appointment of bankers for TuasSpring Power Project disposal will be cheered by investors althought it might result in steep loss-recognition.
  • Asset-Light - Hyflux continues to dispose stakes in matured project forprofit-recognition eg. Nantong NewSpring, Galaxy NewSpring recently.
  • Stronger Cashflow - In the last announced results, Hyflux is sitting on over $300mio with $400mio assets held-for-sale and another $190mio which will be coming in 1H17 due to the disposal of their 50% stake in GalaxySpring project.


 

Probable Moves:
  • Hyflux has a sound business model and income from municipal projects. Risk-takers could capitalize in the subdued share prices in the near future due to the potential write-offs in TuasSpring project.
  • With a stronger cash pile, the risk-adversed can sleep well with the 2018 bonds which are likely redeemed on first-call date and offers an attractive return of 7%pa (till call-date) with neligible risk of coupon default.
  • It is difficult for Hyflux to issue more perpetual bonds right now due to the crash caused by the 2016 oversupply (higher cost of pricing such instruments in the immediate future). Upon the redemption of 2018 bonds, scarcity of the remaining 2020 bonds could generate some additional capital gains and offers a 7%pa yield (till call-date) at current prices.


john_ric      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 12:16) Posted:

hyflux   issued  profit guidance. wonder how its bond  will be affectd??
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MarcPh
Senior
21-Jul-2017 12:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		should be. Thanks

Just that my english is poor, so i got to refer you to the Tradehaven article.
That article was a laughing stock in the bond industry.
 

laksaman57      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 11:22) Posted:

For those holding their bond and shares, hope you are right.

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 11:09) Posted:

The cited article is written by a novice or inexperience reporter.

Bond market is not based on screen grabs. You cannot get good insights from reading your local newspapers. People pay real money for bond market research. Wrong companies are cited in the article.



Here' s a rebuff on the poor research behind the article. https://tradehaven.net/2017/06/12/singapore-bonds-fact-checking-the-news

It missed out the high-risk ones that we talked about in this thread:
 
The screaming question in everyone&rsquo s minds is, &ldquo Where is Nam Cheong?&rdquo . 10 of out 10 market pundits would unanimously vote  Nam Cheong  as the next Big-Default risk
 

Credit Analysis is Not Cheap or Easy

For one, fixed income credit analysts i.e. bond analysts are paid way more than equity analysts and we are talking about, potentially, several-fold. Perhaps analysing future cash flows is a lot harder than putting a number to profits and sales which are future cash flows too but we can suppose that there is much more number crunching in a more complex way. We are jealous all the same.

 


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john_ric
Supreme
21-Jul-2017 12:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		hyflux   issued  profit guidance. wonder how its bond  will be affectd??
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laksaman57
Supreme
21-Jul-2017 11:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		For those holding their bond and shares, hope you are right.

MarcPh      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 11:09) Posted:

The cited article is written by a novice or inexperience reporter.

Bond market is not based on screen grabs. You cannot get good insights from reading your local newspapers. People pay real money for bond market research. Wrong companies are cited in the article.



Here' s a rebuff on the poor research behind the article. https://tradehaven.net/2017/06/12/singapore-bonds-fact-checking-the-news

It missed out the high-risk ones that we talked about in this thread:
 
The screaming question in everyone&rsquo s minds is, &ldquo Where is Nam Cheong?&rdquo . 10 of out 10 market pundits would unanimously vote  Nam Cheong  as the next Big-Default risk
 

Credit Analysis is Not Cheap or Easy

For one, fixed income credit analysts i.e. bond analysts are paid way more than equity analysts and we are talking about, potentially, several-fold. Perhaps analysing future cash flows is a lot harder than putting a number to profits and sales which are future cash flows too but we can suppose that there is much more number crunching in a more complex way. We are jealous all the same.

 


laksaman57      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 11:01) Posted:

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/four-singapore-companies-with-bond-deadlines-to-watch
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MarcPh
Senior
21-Jul-2017 11:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The cited article is written by a novice or inexperience reporter.

Bond market is not based on screen grabs. You cannot get good insights from reading your local newspapers. People pay real money for bond market research. Wrong companies are cited in the article.



Here' s a rebuff on the poor research behind the article. https://tradehaven.net/2017/06/12/singapore-bonds-fact-checking-the-news

It missed out the high-risk ones that we talked about in this thread:
 
The screaming question in everyone&rsquo s minds is, &ldquo Where is Nam Cheong?&rdquo . 10 of out 10 market pundits would unanimously vote  Nam Cheong  as the next Big-Default risk
 

Credit Analysis is Not Cheap or Easy

For one, fixed income credit analysts i.e. bond analysts are paid way more than equity analysts and we are talking about, potentially, several-fold. Perhaps analysing future cash flows is a lot harder than putting a number to profits and sales which are future cash flows too but we can suppose that there is much more number crunching in a more complex way. We are jealous all the same.

 


laksaman57      ( Date: 21-Jul-2017 11:01) Posted:

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/four-singapore-companies-with-bond-deadlines-to-watch
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laksaman57
Supreme
21-Jul-2017 11:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/four-singapore-companies-with-bond-deadlines-to-watch
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MarcPh
Senior
21-Jul-2017 10:38     
 
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 Alert Admin

Nam Cheong suspends trading

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nam-cheong-suspends-trading

MarcPh      ( Date: 13-Jul-2017 10:05) Posted:

Nam Cheong to meet noteholders on July 19 to update them on restructuring
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/nam-cheong-to-meet-noteholders-on-july-19-to-update-them-on-restructuring

Secured lenders has priority over Nam Cheong' s unsecured bondholders in debt-repayment.
Actual Debt restructuring usually requires trading suspension.
The " suspension of trading Put" clause in Nam Cheong bonds will raise the bondholder' s priority on debt repayment. When that clause is triggered, Bondholders can legally impound the revenue received NC' s bank accounts and effectively, they will rank higher than all trade/business creditors (usually insecured). If you are a supplier or vendor to NC, there is no way that you can ever get paid until NC reimburses the bondholders fully.

BONDHOLDERS BEWARE:
So on surface, a PROLONGED trading suspension for NC is as good as a death sentence to NC.
NC looks very likely to demand bondholders to waive the " suspension of trading put" clause by threatening to wind-up ( trust me on this) BUT agreeing so, is as good as asking bondholders to give up their best insurance/protection.

MarcPh      ( Date: 24-Apr-2017 08:53) Posted:



Nam Cheong announced intention to restructure debts on Saturday/Sunday midnight but no tangible plans disclosed.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Group%20Restructuring.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=449569

 

Unsecured bonds due for maturity:

  • NCLSP 5.000% 28Aug2017 - S$90mio (trading at appx 60% below par)

  • NCLSP 6.500% 23Jul2018 - S$75mio (trading at appx 70% below par)

  • NCLSP 5.050% 26Aug2019 - S$200mio (trading at appx 75% below par)



 

Current Market Cap - appx S$40mio


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MarcPh
Senior
20-Jul-2017 13:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Such sheer arrogance, they expect creditors to do their biddings. The Malaysians are still dreaming about clinching on the the leadership position in the company. Judicial management will rid the management and keep the company viable through a massive debt-for-equity conversion.
 

Nam Cheong to Restructure in Blow to Singapore Bond Market

It&rsquo s asking creditors to consider making an exit with cash payout with a voluntary haircut or convert their debt into equity.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-20/nam-cheong-stops-servicing-428-million-debt-as-it-restructures


Nam Cheong has three unrated bonds with a face value of S$365 million, indicated at about 20 cents to 26 cents on the dollar, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.The company has started talks with shipyards to cancel or defer vessels under construction and is also looking to sell existing ships on its fleet to boost liquidity. About 74 vessels ordered mainly from Chinese shipyards may not be fulfilled, Nam Cheong said in the filing. It may also lose deposits placed on these orders and may have to pay some $770 million for the unpaid amount for these contracts.

MarcPh      ( Date: 20-Jul-2017 07:44) Posted:

The Malaysians played punk and confirms default. Nam Cheong have the capability to serve at least the coupon payment and/or redemption of August 2017 bond due. As expected, they will not opt to suspend their shares for an extended period of time to triggering the trading-suspension put clause which will prioritize bondholders over their trade-creditors.

There is not even a debt extension possibility so liquidation is a better option for this company because market cap is just $40mio.  Any proposed share-for-bond  swap by the Malaysians will be quite worthless and low-ball. Let' s put this in perspective, the business has in excess of $360mio outstanding, do you think the 50% controlling-shareholders will offer a fair dollar-for-dollar swap and raise the market cap 10-folds to $400mio and they themselves become a 5%-shareholder?

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/NCL_RESTRUCTURING%20AND%20COMPANY%20DEBT%20STANDSTILL.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=462171

(The controlling shareholder has some shares pledged to UOB.)

MarcPh      ( Date: 13-Jul-2017 10:05) Posted:

Nam Cheong to meet noteholders on July 19 to update them on restructuring
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/nam-cheong-to-meet-noteholders-on-july-19-to-update-them-on-restructuring

Secured lenders has priority over Nam Cheong' s unsecured bondholders in debt-repayment.
Actual Debt restructuring usually requires trading suspension.
The " suspension of trading Put" clause in Nam Cheong bonds will raise the bondholder' s priority on debt repayment. When that clause is triggered, Bondholders can legally impound the revenue received NC' s bank accounts and effectively, they will rank higher than all trade/business creditors (usually insecured). If you are a supplier or vendor to NC, there is no way that you can ever get paid until NC reimburses the bondholders fully.

BONDHOLDERS BEWARE:
So on surface, a PROLONGED trading suspension for NC is as good as a death sentence to NC.
NC looks very likely to demand bondholders to waive the " suspension of trading put" clause by threatening to wind-up ( trust me on this) BUT agreeing so, is as good as asking bondholders to give up their best insurance/protection.
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