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Global Premium Hotels - GPH - (SGX Code: P9J) Post Reply Rate topic
jeremyow Master	03-Apr-2017 12:05        jeremyow About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Passionate business investor"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The problem with not accepting Mr Koh' s take over offer for Global Premium Hotels (GPH) is that shareholders will continue to be invested in GPH. The past 6 years business and financial performance of GPH was lacklustre. Revenues have stagnated around 60 plus-minus 1 to 2 million dollars. Operating incomes have decreased slightly over the past 6 years. The net incomes have seen a decreasing trend by a greater fall than operating incomes, falling by around 50% decrease over the past 6 years period. Also, the share base has doubled over the past 6 years. Thus, with a significantly enlarged share base plus stagnant revenues, falling operating and net incomes, the earnings per share (EPS) has also decreased by 75% over the past 6 years. In addition, the return on equity (ROE) for GPH has fallen by about 50% over the past 6 years too. As such, the returns on shareholders' equity has dwindled over the past 6 years. The latest ROE for FY2016 is only about 1.64%. Of course, one can argue that the ROE for hotel and hospitality industry may not be that high so such low single digit ROE is not surprising. However, I think there are easily plenty of other better companies around in other types of industries with ROEs of at least 10% and higher that an investor can consider. I think that either the entire hotel and hospitality industry has not been doing well over the past 6 years or it is just GPH has not been doing well in its business performance. We have to compare to other competitions operating in the hotel and hospitality industry to get a better view of the performance of GPH as compared to its competitions. But, just looking solely at GPH' s business and financial performance over the past 6 years is definitely not telling of an investment of exceptional quality. At best, it is only a mediocre investment if one is looking at staying invested for the long term. The only saving grace for GPH is its high NAV due to the current off-exchange market valuations of GPH hotel assets as compared to the current market traded price on the exchange. But, looking at the current situation of the low ball figure take over price by Mr Koh (lower by 47% to GPH' s NAV per share), seems that the shareholders are in a grid-lock situation. They cannot see the fair value of their shares being realised at NAV. Even if shareholders continue to stay invested in GPH if the current take over attempt by Mr Koh fall through again, they may not be enjoying good returns on this investment in terms of the actual business performance of GPH should it continues to turn in lacklustre business performance for the years ahead.
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chessgame Member	03-Apr-2017 11:17        chessgame About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	For those following this counter, please find the most interesting comment made by Independent Financial Advisor   (IFA)on the taker over below.  " Based on our analysis and after having considered carefully the information available to us as at the Latest Practicable Date, overall, we are of the view that the financial terms of the Offer are NOT FAIR but reasonable" [CAPS higlighted by me] This is the first time i have seen such a statement made by IFA.   I am no expert on take over but this statement should give some guidance to shareholders on what action to take on this counter. The reason for the NOT FAIR comment is because if this company is liquidated at its asset value alone (and GPHL just did a market valuation of all its assets recently), shareholders can get S$0.69 per share based on this revised valuation. By selling out to Mr. Koh, shareholder are giving him 47 % discount on the assets that are held by this company.  How will Mr Koh get if he succeeds in this takeover ? Based on my offhand calculation: There is approx.   25% of shares of total shares that Mr. Koh does not hold. Total number of shares in this counter is around 1 billion. Based on value of the share @   $0.69 per share. Mr Koh will gain : 25% x 1 billion shares x   ( 0.69 [NTA per share] &ndash offer price 0.365 )   = approx. S$81 million gain&hellip Wow&hellip . This voluntary take over is all for Mr. Koh to become SO MUCH MORE RICHER ! So in my humble view, I think he can be generous enough to share some of this gains with us. I am not expecting too much, but 55 cents per share (at least) will be reasonable. He will still gain a lot (20 % discount over the asset.   It will cost Mr. Koh S$46m more if he offer this value&hellip but what is S$46 m to  a billionaire right ? heheh.. Ok ok.. back to reality and back a long suffering   shareholder role&hellip sigh.
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chessgame Member	01-Mar-2017 13:29        chessgame About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If you accept Mr. Koh offer ( not clear time line), then you also have to accept his conditions. His offer is that he will pay 0.365 if he receives 90% of all the shares but he can also lower this percentage by 50%.  If Mr. Koh offers goes through, you save on brokerage etc.  If you do it at open market, it is the normal practice of trading including brokerage fee etc and there is no need to explain that further.  The IFA has been appointed (based on today announcement) and you can make your own assessment of the IFA -  Provenance Capital Pte. Ltd. Honestly, it is a no brainer what this IFA is going to say since it is appointed by Mr. Koh indirectly ... ie accept, views this offer to be fair etc so and so...  To reject the offer from Mr. Koh, you just have to do nothing.
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skbeng Member	28-Feb-2017 02:41        skbeng About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Are we supposed to wait for a letter to accept or reject the offer or sell in open market and incur brokerage fee?
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beginners Veteran	28-Feb-2017 01:27        beginners About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agreed. 2nd attempt Liao. This Koh No mercy. If he is not successful he will just come back again. Wildboar      ( Date: 27-Feb-2017 23:48) Posted: aiyoh brothers and sisters ... I see angst of not selling back to ah koh. But look, in this depressed market, when it was still 0.28 cents 1 month plus ago, offer of 0.365 is really a good way out loh! You tell me, the real value of NTA in reality when can match one? Mai ti ki lah. Next time he suka list again, just buy back loh! Also, imagine the risk he has to take on the buy back woh, NTA floats with property sentiments ok! Today worth 1b, tomorrow scarly 500m, then how? You all will cry. With government like that, poor budgeting, and making China angry, no china tourists, he's saving us ok! You all gang up also no use, I think what big brother koh wants he will get it lah!
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beginners Veteran	28-Feb-2017 01:09        beginners About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	You cross fingers this Koh don't get 90% Loh . chessgame      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 12:03) Posted: Lets do the maths.   At present, what is required is for Koh to get 90% of all the shares before the offer becomes unconditional and he can buy up the company regardless . 10% of the free float shares is approx 105.2 mlilion shares . From the top 20 shareholders in 2015 annual report, we know that there are individuals holding a seizable holding and this amounts up to 86%. Assume Koh captures approximately half of the non top 20 shareholders free flot, we have approx 7% dissenting voters. Is it reasonable for Koh capture this half ? I dont know.  But from today traded volume, i note approx 500k shares changed hands...   and these shares are likely to accept to Koh offer. But it is a long long way to reach 73.6 million which is 7% of the free float. How to get the last 3 % for dissenting voters : This is where the top 20 comes in... If they come together and make the play for 3% and dissent, then this offer will not succeed. . From the traded market volume at this stage, it is clear shareholders are not overwhelmed with the offer. This delisting offer sucks compared to others made recently.  I am vested and i am voting not to accept . But my holding is small hence unlikely to move decisions in this big boy game.      beginners      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 01:32) Posted: It is that this Koh is taking the advantage and it's hard to see him give mercy to the minority. I am not sure even all minority gang up don't accept it will force for a better price. Or he might play to give up then wait for the price to drop lower and lower. And everytime he buy a bit at Low price in the open market. Low untill no eyes to see and by that time he offers again at even lower price or accumulate at Low price till 90 or more % for fully or compounsory take over.
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Wildboar Member	27-Feb-2017 23:48        Wildboar About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	aiyoh brothers and sisters ... I see angst of not selling back to ah koh. But look, in this depressed market, when it was still 0.28 cents 1 month plus ago, offer of 0.365 is really a good way out loh! You tell me, the real value of NTA in reality when can match one? Mai ti ki lah. Next time he suka list again, just buy back loh! Also, imagine the risk he has to take on the buy back woh, NTA floats with property sentiments ok! Today worth 1b, tomorrow scarly 500m, then how? You all will cry. With government like that, poor budgeting, and making China angry, no china tourists, he's saving us ok! You all gang up also no use, I think what big brother koh wants he will get it lah!
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chessgame Member	27-Feb-2017 08:54        chessgame About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Didnt analyse Fragrance too much but why wouldnt he employ the same strategy ? People are dumping to him cheap.so he can easily buy back when he wants
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dogbone1 Senior	25-Feb-2017 11:19        dogbone1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So what will his move for his company Fragrance which he owned almost 85% ? chessgame      ( Date: 25-Feb-2017 10:16) Posted: Today straits times posted an article about how GPHL TRIED TO privatise this company in 2014. I note that the ifa in 2014 said the offer was not compelling. To be fair to investors , sg stock markets really dont know how to value underpriced assets. And the stock prices reflect that sentimemt. I think Mr Koh is doing us minority shareholders  a favour because after this exercise , i am quite sure it would not succeed and this offer price will have removed those whom cannot hold on to their investments for long term gains. with even lower liquidity and a price floor of 0.365 , those whom dont sell will see a bigger bang for our holdings. Be patient guys...what do we stand to lose ? He can try giving himself fat salary but if it is obviously too high, we can take class action suit He cant dividend out his cash from the company without paying us. if he sells assets at non market rate to himself , cpib can come in. So he will be stuck like us all. Dont bet yout life investmemt on this counter. bet just something like an insurance stock that you want to see a big payday after 10 years.. If he succeeds to get 90% , then we also get this floor price. so all in all , do nothing and wait..
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chessgame Member	25-Feb-2017 10:16        chessgame About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Today straits times posted an article about how GPHL TRIED TO privatise this company in 2014. I note that the ifa in 2014 said the offer was not compelling. To be fair to investors , sg stock markets really dont know how to value underpriced assets. And the stock prices reflect that sentimemt. I think Mr Koh is doing us minority shareholders  a favour because after this exercise , i am quite sure it would not succeed and this offer price will have removed those whom cannot hold on to their investments for long term gains. with even lower liquidity and a price floor of 0.365 , those whom dont sell will see a bigger bang for our holdings. Be patient guys...what do we stand to lose ? He can try giving himself fat salary but if it is obviously too high, we can take class action suit He cant dividend out his cash from the company without paying us. if he sells assets at non market rate to himself , cpib can come in. So he will be stuck like us all. Dont bet yout life investmemt on this counter. bet just something like an insurance stock that you want to see a big payday after 10 years.. If he succeeds to get 90% , then we also get this floor price. so all in all , do nothing and wait..
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jeremyow Master	24-Feb-2017 23:16        jeremyow About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Passionate business investor"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks for the correction!  chessgame      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 19:02) Posted: just a   slight correction to your post : the historical high is 0.42 cents for this counter.    jeremyow      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 16:57) Posted: But having said that, Dr Koh Wee Meng currently owns 71% of the total outstanding voting shares and it makes sense in his interest that he should privatise his company since it has been undervalued in its share price for so long already. The highest the share price ever reached was around 37 cents. The market has not realised the value of his company for so long as the share price has been traded at lower valuations and he is trying to realise the value of his company by privatising it. The shareholders who held their shares at more than $0.30 and above average price may not get a good deal from this privatisation offer. But those shareholders whose average holding price of their shares is $0.30 and below may still get a resonable deal from this privitisation offer.  But based on the historical share prices of this comapny, I think those shareholders (from the public retail investors at large) whose average share price is $0.30 and below make up probably the minority. For most public retail investors of this company, their average holding price should be somewhere between $0.30 to $0.37 and thus this privatisation offer of $0.365 per share is definitely not a good deal for them.
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nea03177 Senior	24-Feb-2017 19:39        nea03177 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Didn't read the detailed Announcement because cut loss few years back when the price dropped. Minority shareholders may want to look at delisting of Aztech. Seems like they can lower the % level for the acceptance and delist. Check with your financial advisors. Dr Koh Wee Meng and his brother Wee Seng love to privatise listed companies. beginners      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 01:32) Posted: It is that this Koh is taking the advantage and it's hard to see him give mercy to the minority. I am not sure even all minority gang up don't accept it will force for a better price. Or he might play to give up then wait for the price to drop lower and lower. And everytime he buy a bit at Low price in the open market. Low untill no eyes to see and by that time he offers again at even lower price or accumulate at Low price till 90 or more % for fully or compounsory take over. dogbone1      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 21:56) Posted: Fully Agree Don' t take our minority shareholders blood & swear money away by offer Cheapo price to delist, some more He is a billionaire and top richest ranking in Singapore.
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chessgame Member	24-Feb-2017 19:02        chessgame About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	just a   slight correction to your post : the historical high is 0.42 cents for this counter.    jeremyow      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 16:57) Posted: But having said that, Dr Koh Wee Meng currently owns 71% of the total outstanding voting shares and it makes sense in his interest that he should privatise his company since it has been undervalued in its share price for so long already. The highest the share price ever reached was around 37 cents. The market has not realised the value of his company for so long as the share price has been traded at lower valuations and he is trying to realise the value of his company by privatising it. The shareholders who held their shares at more than $0.30 and above average price may not get a good deal from this privatisation offer. But those shareholders whose average holding price of their shares is $0.30 and below may still get a resonable deal from this privitisation offer.  But based on the historical share prices of this comapny, I think those shareholders (from the public retail investors at large) whose average share price is $0.30 and below make up probably the minority. For most public retail investors of this company, their average holding price should be somewhere between $0.30 to $0.37 and thus this privatisation offer of $0.365 per share is definitely not a good deal for them.         jeremyow      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 16:08) Posted: The NAV as of Dec 16 annual report is 69.31 cents per share. The enterprise value per share is 76.2 cents per share. The offer for privatisation is 36.5 cents per share. No matter how we look at it, the offer price is way below both the NAV per share and EV per share. It is like getting about a 50% discount on the current value of Global Premium Hotels by the offeror to delist. What a good deal for the offeror!
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jeremyow Master	24-Feb-2017 16:57        jeremyow About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Passionate business investor"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	But having said that, Dr Koh Wee Meng currently owns 71% of the total outstanding voting shares and it makes sense in his interest that he should privatise his company since it has been undervalued in its share price for so long already. The highest the share price ever reached was around 37 cents. The market has not realised the value of his company for so long as the share price has been traded at lower valuations and he is trying to realise the value of his company by privatising it. The shareholders who held their shares at more than $0.30 and above average price may not get a good deal from this privatisation offer. But those shareholders whose average holding price of their shares is $0.30 and below may still get a resonable deal from this privitisation offer.  But based on the historical share prices of this comapny, I think those shareholders (from the public retail investors at large) whose average share price is $0.30 and below make up probably the minority. For most public retail investors of this company, their average holding price should be somewhere between $0.30 to $0.37 and thus this privatisation offer of $0.365 per share is definitely not a good deal for them.         jeremyow      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 16:08) Posted: The NAV as of Dec 16 annual report is 69.31 cents per share. The enterprise value per share is 76.2 cents per share. The offer for privatisation is 36.5 cents per share. No matter how we look at it, the offer price is way below both the NAV per share and EV per share. It is like getting about a 50% discount on the current value of Global Premium Hotels by the offeror to delist. What a good deal for the offeror!  Secret_Squirrel      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 05:58) Posted: The NAV is more than 60 cents in 2015. How much is it now
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jeremyow Master	24-Feb-2017 16:08        jeremyow About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Passionate business investor"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The NAV as of Dec 16 annual report is 69.31 cents per share. The enterprise value per share is 76.2 cents per share. The offer for privatisation is 36.5 cents per share. No matter how we look at it, the offer price is way below both the NAV per share and EV per share. It is like getting about a 50% discount on the current value of Global Premium Hotels by the offeror to delist. What a good deal for the offeror!  Secret_Squirrel      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 05:58) Posted: The NAV is more than 60 cents in 2015. How much is it now? beginners      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 01:32) Posted: It is that this Koh is taking the advantage and it's hard to see him give mercy to the minority. I am not sure even all minority gang up don't accept it will force for a better price. Or he might play to give up then wait for the price to drop lower and lower. And everytime he buy a bit at Low price in the open market. Low untill no eyes to see and by that time he offers again at even lower price or accumulate at Low price till 90 or more % for fully or compounsory take over.
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chessgame Member	24-Feb-2017 12:03        chessgame About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lets do the maths.   At present, what is required is for Koh to get 90% of all the shares before the offer becomes unconditional and he can buy up the company regardless . 10% of the free float shares is approx 105.2 mlilion shares . From the top 20 shareholders in 2015 annual report, we know that there are individuals holding a seizable holding and this amounts up to 86%. Assume Koh captures approximately half of the non top 20 shareholders free flot, we have approx 7% dissenting voters. Is it reasonable for Koh capture this half ? I dont know.  But from today traded volume, i note approx 500k shares changed hands...   and these shares are likely to accept to Koh offer. But it is a long long way to reach 73.6 million which is 7% of the free float. How to get the last 3 % for dissenting voters : This is where the top 20 comes in... If they come together and make the play for 3% and dissent, then this offer will not succeed. . From the traded market volume at this stage, it is clear shareholders are not overwhelmed with the offer. This delisting offer sucks compared to others made recently.  I am vested and i am voting not to accept . But my holding is small hence unlikely to move decisions in this big boy game.      beginners      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 01:32) Posted: It is that this Koh is taking the advantage and it's hard to see him give mercy to the minority. I am not sure even all minority gang up don't accept it will force for a better price. Or he might play to give up then wait for the price to drop lower and lower. And everytime he buy a bit at Low price in the open market. Low untill no eyes to see and by that time he offers again at even lower price or accumulate at Low price till 90 or more % for fully or compounsory take over. dogbone1      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 21:56) Posted: Fully Agree Don' t take our minority shareholders blood & swear money away by offer Cheapo price to delist, some more He is a billionaire and top richest ranking in Singapore.
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Secret_Squirrel Elite	24-Feb-2017 05:58        Secret_Squirrel About Contact  Quote this Post!   Yells: "Stay curious but skeptical"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The NAV is more than 60 cents in 2015. How much is it now? beginners      ( Date: 24-Feb-2017 01:32) Posted: It is that this Koh is taking the advantage and it's hard to see him give mercy to the minority. I am not sure even all minority gang up don't accept it will force for a better price. Or he might play to give up then wait for the price to drop lower and lower. And everytime he buy a bit at Low price in the open market. Low untill no eyes to see and by that time he offers again at even lower price or accumulate at Low price till 90 or more % for fully or compounsory take over. dogbone1      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 21:56) Posted: Fully Agree Don' t take our minority shareholders blood & swear money away by offer Cheapo price to delist, some more He is a billionaire and top richest ranking in Singapore.
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beginners Veteran	24-Feb-2017 01:32        beginners About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is that this Koh is taking the advantage and it's hard to see him give mercy to the minority. I am not sure even all minority gang up don't accept it will force for a better price. Or he might play to give up then wait for the price to drop lower and lower. And everytime he buy a bit at Low price in the open market. Low untill no eyes to see and by that time he offers again at even lower price or accumulate at Low price till 90 or more % for fully or compounsory take over. dogbone1      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 21:56) Posted: Fully Agree Don' t take our minority shareholders blood & swear money away by offer Cheapo price to delist, some more He is a billionaire and top richest ranking in Singapore. chessgame      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 21:49) Posted: I am vested .  I am not accepting the offer. It is too low. Anyway, wait for independent finance agent to review. I think SGX should take active steps to protect us minority holders as the fundamentals of this company is not weak with high NAV.   A sincere offer will at least be 35% last traded price (around 43 cents ) based on past 2 year historical share price.  I dont see why we must always accept such lousy offers.
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dogbone1 Senior	23-Feb-2017 21:56        dogbone1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Fully Agree Don' t take our minority shareholders blood & swear money away by offer Cheapo price to delist, some more He is a billionaire and top richest ranking in Singapore. chessgame      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 21:49) Posted: I am vested .  I am not accepting the offer. It is too low. Anyway, wait for independent finance agent to review. I think SGX should take active steps to protect us minority holders as the fundamentals of this company is not weak with high NAV.   A sincere offer will at least be 35% last traded price (around 43 cents ) based on past 2 year historical share price.  I dont see why we must always accept such lousy offers.     beginners      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 20:33) Posted: Can only lan lan accept the Koh's offer.
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Audermas Master	23-Feb-2017 21:53        Audermas About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	IFA has to agree with the fig b4 they even announce it.. get used to it ba chessgame      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 21:49) Posted: I am vested .  I am not accepting the offer. It is too low. Anyway, wait for independent finance agent to review. I think SGX should take active steps to protect us minority holders as the fundamentals of this company is not weak with high NAV.   A sincere offer will at least be 35% last traded price (around 43 cents ) based on past 2 year historical share price.  I dont see why we must always accept such lousy offers.     beginners      ( Date: 23-Feb-2017 20:33) Posted: Can only lan lan accept the Koh's offer.
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