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Electronic counters results summary & discussion
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nqing87
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27-Feb-2019 23:00
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Creating this thread specially for electronic counters.. Im putting up a summary of how the electronic counters did for the current quarter for everyone' s convenience of an overview if want to invest in electronic counters.. will try to do the same for every quarter if i have the time.. feel free to give inputs or correct anything if i have figures wrong.. i spend nearly 2 hrs compiling all the info from financial reports and analyst reports and typing it here, so pardon me if there' s any errors.. AEM - Current Q4 results y-o-y 54% decline in profit - Full year 2018 18.4% rise in profit vs 2017 - P/E ratio: 9.2 (based on share price $1.13 and 2018 eps of 12.27cents for full year 2018) - Dividend: 3% (based on share price $1.13 and dividend of 3.4 cents) - Debt vs cash: Almost no debt with ~59mil cash (about 21.6 cents cash) - NAV: 33.3 cents - Outlook: 2019 will be bad for AEM as per mentioned by AEM management that the sales in 2019 will be subdued.. so 2019 is likely not going to be good vs 2018.. management give revenue range forecast of 180-210mil for 2019, vs 260+mil for 2018 - Latest Analyst TP: $1.11 for CIMB, $1.24 for Maybank - Remarks: Main customer is Intel and is heavily dependent on them for their revenue/profit.. AEM will be delivering its first test solution to Huawei in 2019.. To deliver continued sustainable growth, AEM need to secure orders from Huawei (as well as to find more customers) to diversify their customer base and not solely depend on Intel UMS - Current Q4 results y-o-y 41% decline in profit - Full year 2018 18% drop in profit vs 2017 - P/E ratio: 9.2 (based on share price $0.74 and 2018 eps of 8.03cents for full year 2018) - Dividend: 6.1% (based on share price $0.74 and dividend of 4.5 cents) - Debt vs cash: Debt of ~25mil and ~19mil cash, ie net debt of 6mil - NAV: 42.6 cents - Outlook: Management said that " the near-term outlook continues to be negative due to much uncertainty in customers&rsquo order flows- attributed partly to the ongoing China-US trade tensions which affected demand from chipmakers in the semiconductor sector" - Latest Analyst TP: $0.55 for DBS - Remarks: Main customer is Applied material and is heavily dependant on them for their revenue/profit (~90%).. UMS had decreased their dividend from 6 cents in previous year to 4.5 cents with a significant reduction in cash on hand.. 2019 will likely reduce vs 2018 as the last 2 quarters is experiencing drop in profit and doesnt show a turnaround yet.. with reduced cash, dividends may not be sustainable Valuetronics - Current Q3 results y-o-y 2.6% increase in profit - Full year 2018 to be known in next quarter, but i predict that 2018 will perform closely similar to 2017 as 9M 2018 results is comparable with 9M 2017 - P/E ratio: 8.9 (based on share price $0.725 and 2018 assumed eps of 8.18cents for full year 2018) - Dividend: 5.9% (based on share price $0.725 and assumed lower dividend of 25 HKD cents=4.31 SGD cents) - Debt vs cash: No debt with ~HKD 755mil cash (about SGD 130mil cash, constituting nearly 70% of NAV) - NAV: HKD 2.6 dollars = ~44.8 SGD cents - Outlook: in 2018, CE segment has faced reduced revenue/profit due to one of their CE segment customer Philip lighting (now known as Signify) having weak results, which is offset by ICE segment double digit growth.. assuming this trend to continue, the growth in ICE segment should be enough to offset CE segment and 2019 should probably have similar or slightly better results than 2018 - Latest Analyst TP: $0.78 for RHB, $0.87 for UOB, $0.73 for CIMB, $1.05 for Maybank - Remarks: Valuetronics is perceived to be subjected to greater risk if US-China trade war worsens.. very cash rich with lowest p/e among all electronic counters, no debt, consistent results and one of the highest dividend electronic counters which give increasing dividends over last 5 years.. Analysts give a wide range of tp due to some giving a big buffer for risk considering escalation of trade war.. Venture - Current Q4 results y-o-y 24.7% drop in profit - Full year 2018 0.7% drop in profit vs 2017 (include 1 off gain in 2017) - P/E ratio: 14.2 (based on share price $17.80 and 2018 eps of $1.27 for full year 2018) - Dividend: 3.9% (based on share price $17.80 and dividend of $0.70) - Debt vs cash: Almost no debt at ~2mil and ~713mil cash, ie net cash of 711mil (constituting ~30% of NAV) - NAV: $8.16 - Outlook: Not much guidance is given in 2019 on how it is going to perform vs 2018 - Latest Analyst TP: $19.00 for RHB, $20.89 for OCBC, $21.70 for DBS, $19.23 for Maybank, $17.88 for CIMB - Remarks: High unfair valuation in terms of p/e vs smaller electronic counters as it is a blue chip Fu Yu - Current Q4 results y-o-y 5.2% increase in profit - Full year 2018 more than double in profit vs 2017 due to foreign exchange losses and write-down in 2017 - P/E ratio: 13.6 (based on share price $0.215 and 2018 eps of $0.0158 for full year 2018) - Dividend: 7.4% (based on share price $0.215 and dividend of $0.016) - Debt vs cash: No debt with ~80mil cash (constituting ~49% of NAV) - NAV: $0.218 - Outlook: Management being cautious and said that " the operating environment in FY2019 is expected to remain challenging" .. Not much can be guessed from the expected results in 2019 vs 2018 - Latest Analyst TP: Not provided yet for the latest quarter as results just announced - Remarks: Dividends may not be sustainable as the payout for 2018 of 1.6cents is more than the eps of 2018 of 1.58cents.. but given the huge cash on hand, management may continue to give out good dividends with high pay-out ratio Hi-P - Current Q4 results y-o-y 24.9% drop in profit - Full year 2018 16.9% drop vs 2017 - P/E ratio: 11 (based on share price $1.38 and 2018 eps of $0.125 for full year 2018) - Dividend: 3.6% (based on share price $1.38 and dividend of $0.05) - Debt vs cash: Debt of ~169mil and ~287mil cash (ie net cash of 118mil, constituting ~21% of NAV) - NAV: $0.704 - Outlook: Management said that they " expects similar revenue and profit for FY2019 as compared to FY2018" - Latest Analyst TP: $1.22 for Maybank, $1.12 for Hi-P - Remarks: Dividends had dropped from 25 cents to 5 cents.. One of major customers is Apple |
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