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Lucky03 Elite	01-Jun-2015 20:58        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Watch out for all the analysts who will be scrambling to issue reports on Ezra's proposed rights cum CB issue tomorrow.
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edwinjup Supreme	01-Jun-2015 12:48        edwinjup About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If there really a outstanding 10% short position....the shows will be damn interesting....as those short need to close before xr....cheers Jimmykohkk      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 11:55) Posted: I think i will buy a few days after the start of trading of rights and maybe 2-3 days before XE, as i think they will try to push the share price higher just before XE in order to encourage those undecided to go to the ATM to subscribe for the shares at the last minute. :) cheers. My own analysis... I hope i am right .. waiting for the XE day to be annouced.
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Shifu8888 Supreme	01-Jun-2015 12:08        Shifu8888 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	This rights issue is perceived to be good news. Why? It is a known fact their balance sheet sucks. Now they are doing a massive exercise to clean up the dung. They timed the release of the news over the weekend not to evade but to allow the investment community to digest and discern. Price is not announced as I am sure of some "conspiracy theory". The founding family esp LL had not been buying back amid the rock bottom price. They strategically do so to subscribe to rights which will be superbly low. Value for money. The rights are FULLY underwritten which means there are strong BB. As mentioned, oil price tanked, Ezra tanked, oil price recovered Ezra remained tanked and oil price stabilized and Ezra hit all time low. If this is not "conspiracy theory", what is? Long time is bright cos the world needs energy and substitutes such as clean energy and gas have a long long way to fully replace OIL. Hence, I'm long for this. Will buy on dips and subscribe for the rights and excess. My pov edwinjup      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 11:07) Posted: Too bad..this is not the first day ezra trade below nta...it have been years Demostation      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 10:31) Posted: I think so, it could even shoot up owing to its being undervalued versus the NTA someone was saying here. Lol.
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Jimmykohkk Master	01-Jun-2015 11:55        Jimmykohkk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think i will buy a few days after the start of trading of rights and maybe 2-3 days before XE, as i think they will try to push the share price higher just before XE in order to encourage those undecided to go to the ATM to subscribe for the shares at the last minute. :) cheers. My own analysis... I hope i am right .. waiting for the XE day to be annouced.
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Jimmykohkk Master	01-Jun-2015 11:49        Jimmykohkk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Swiber Pattern: Key dates:   Share price based on key dates: A few  points i observed: 1) Mother share price will drop after annoucement of right issue 2) Mother share price will rise in between start of trading of rights and last day of trading of rights  aka XE  , as I think they want to encourage investors to subscribe to their right shares. A higher share price will encourage those undecided to go out and press the ATM to subscribe for the right shares. 3) The momentum from point 2) will propel the mother share price up awhile 4) After the right shares come out in the market, share price will then drift down as there is an overhang (extra) shares coming onto the market. Some investors will start selling their shares that were converted from their rights. The higher the number of right shares, then higher the selling pressure. So let say a 1 for  5 rights issue means there will be lesser new shares as every 5 mother share, only 1 new share will be converted from rights. Whereas compared to a  5 for 1 right issue where every 1 mother share, u will have 5 new shares coming out in the market. So, If i want to invest in Erza, I will buy slowly after the new shares comes out in the market as the selling pressure will be high OR for short term trading, I will buy Ezra for tikam after the start of trading of the rights as I hope they will push the mother share price up in order to make it attractive for investors to subscribe to the rights. All these are just my own analysis, I may be wrong. Erza may not follow swiber' s pattern...
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Demostation Supreme	01-Jun-2015 11:11        Demostation About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Maybe gone unnoticed until lately?   Lol. edwinjup      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 11:07) Posted: Too bad..this is not the first day ezra trade below nta...it have been years Demostation      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 10:31) Posted: I think so, it could even shoot up owing to its being undervalued versus the NTA someone was saying here. Lol.
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edwinjup Supreme	01-Jun-2015 11:07        edwinjup About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Too bad..this is not the first day ezra trade below nta...it have been years Demostation      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 10:31) Posted: I think so, it could even shoot up owing to its being undervalued versus the NTA someone was saying here. Lol. Shifu8888      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 10:05) Posted: Buy Ezra. When market opens, may have knee jerks downs or ups. Buy the mother share, subscribe the rights and ride the tide. spread your ammo as usual. My pov. All the best.
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Demostation Supreme	01-Jun-2015 10:31        Demostation About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think so, it could even shoot up owing to its being undervalued versus the NTA someone was saying here. Lol. Shifu8888      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 10:05) Posted: Buy Ezra. When market opens, may have knee jerks downs or ups. Buy the mother share, subscribe the rights and ride the tide. spread your ammo as usual. My pov. All the best.
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chinton86 Master	01-Jun-2015 10:26        chinton86 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Drop big big.
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nngeeh Veteran	01-Jun-2015 10:11        nngeeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I believe in the end, the price movement will be very similar to Swiber. Can take reference from Swiber' s price movement pre and post rights.
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Shifu8888 Supreme	01-Jun-2015 10:05        Shifu8888 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Buy Ezra. When market opens, may have knee jerks downs or ups. Buy the mother share, subscribe the rights and ride the tide. spread your ammo as usual. My pov. All the best.
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Jimmykohkk Master	01-Jun-2015 09:58        Jimmykohkk About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	based on past trend of rights issue in a bearish market, i would say they will price the rights at a lower price in order to attract ppl to subscribe for the rights. My guess is they will price the rights at  around  15 cents since for every 1 share, u have 2 rights, means u have to fork out 2x aka  30 cents to subscribe for the 2 rights share. In this type of bearish market sentiment, who dares to part with more $$$ or some even stuck with the shares when they bought it at a higher price, who has the spare cash to subscribe ? They also cant push the share price too high becos if they push  the mother share price  say to 50 cents, then the price they set for the rights issue cannot be too low, then no one can afford to subscribe for the rights. Imagine mother share 50 cents, right issue price is 30 cents, 30 cents x 2 = 60 cents to subscribe, i doubt in this type of market, anyone would part with so much $$$.. So i predict the mother share price will stay around 30+ cents, right price should be 15 cents.   lglg666      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 09:36) Posted: The rights are still not priced...maybe this is to catch all the shorts with their pants down?? If so then they really deserved it. Whacked them so hard that they will never forget ha ha. Better still...chop off their shorties ha ha and turn them into eunuchs. edwinjup      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 09:24) Posted: What make up the nta $133.48?? Cash on hand or good value property?? No.....mainly from emas (valued at $1.21 and now 34c and.may go down more) and vessels (maybe unable to sell and need to send to natsteel .....one good thing about ezra is a lots of people still holding short position (heard (anyone can confirm)...around 10% of share issues).....so they might "force" to buy back due to right issues...(tbc).....but i expect price will move towards the right price in mid term.....
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lglg666 Supreme	01-Jun-2015 09:36        lglg666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The rights are still not priced...maybe this is to catch all the shorts with their pants down?? If so then they really deserved it. Whacked them so hard that they will never forget ha ha. Better still...chop off their shorties ha ha and turn them into eunuchs. edwinjup      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 09:24) Posted: What make up the nta $133.48?? Cash on hand or good value property?? No.....mainly from emas (valued at $1.21 and now 34c and.may go down more) and vessels (maybe unable to sell and need to send to natsteel .....one good thing about ezra is a lots of people still holding short position (heard (anyone can confirm)...around 10% of share issues).....so they might "force" to buy back due to right issues...(tbc).....but i expect price will move towards the right price in mid term...... Jimmykohkk      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 00:24) Posted: u are right.. if the NTA is 133.48 US cents, then the right issue shd be priced at least at 100 cents to reflect the fundamental  but becos usually  rights are priced at 10 to 30% discount  to the share price.  So in this case, the share price of 39 cents vs NTA of 133.48 US cents is an headache for the management. Price too low, shareholders will be angry as it will disadvantage them since the share price will probably drop due to the dilutive effect of a low subscrption price pulling down the NTA. Price too high, shareholders will also be angry too because it means they have to pay more for the right shares. This case very interesting to watch. I think during the EGM will have alot of " arguments" or questions from the small investors ... But Tuesday will be an indication of how the share price will go.... let see if the BBs decide to push the share price down in order to justify  a low right price or push the share price up in order to justify a high right price :)
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edwinjup Supreme	01-Jun-2015 09:24        edwinjup About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	What make up the nta $133.48?? Cash on hand or good value property?? No.....mainly from emas (valued at $1.21 and now 34c and.may go down more) and vessels (maybe unable to sell and need to send to natsteel .....one good thing about ezra is a lots of people still holding short position (heard (anyone can confirm)...around 10% of share issues).....so they might "force" to buy back due to right issues...(tbc).....but i expect price will move towards the right price in mid term...... Jimmykohkk      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 00:24) Posted: u are right.. if the NTA is 133.48 US cents, then the right issue shd be priced at least at 100 cents to reflect the fundamental  but becos usually  rights are priced at 10 to 30% discount  to the share price.  So in this case, the share price of 39 cents vs NTA of 133.48 US cents is an headache for the management. Price too low, shareholders will be angry as it will disadvantage them since the share price will probably drop due to the dilutive effect of a low subscrption price pulling down the NTA. Price too high, shareholders will also be angry too because it means they have to pay more for the right shares. This case very interesting to watch. I think during the EGM will have alot of " arguments" or questions from the small investors ... But Tuesday will be an indication of how the share price will go.... let see if the BBs decide to push the share price down in order to justify  a low right price or push the share price up in order to justify a high right price :)       Lucky03      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 00:01) Posted: What I can't appreciate if the valuation of asset in Ezra. The NTA at half year reporting was 133.48 US cents at Group level and 92.75 US cents at Company level ! Is that expected to be drastically reduced in Q3 but don't see any factor that may give rise to that for now. How low they want to price RIghts below NTA given that the current price may be grossly suppressed. The only reason for the delay of setting a price for the Rights is probably due to the mgmt's belief that the current price should be significantly higher than it is now or any significant discounts being offered will only make the current share price moves lower to near the price of the Rights which may in turn face potential rejection of the motion at EGM.
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lglg666 Supreme	01-Jun-2015 09:13        lglg666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	True lah....fully agreed with your view. Now is a full "on" downturn for the whole sector and how far the falling knife will end up is anyone guess. It's panic and fear that rule the whole sector....only the brave or the foolish dares to enter. That's the circle of life. Once the oil price is over US$80....all will be forgotten ha ha. Lucky03      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 08:42) Posted: O&G sector will not dsappear. It is just a downturn that has to ride out. pnuklis      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 08:33) Posted: Ezra as a company is sinking togather with Emas and Triyards. Lionel has got out of the board and now he will slowly exit out as the company has even no money to pay the bonds maturing. Ezra need to raise money to pay back earlier maturing bonds. OSV' s are not doing well and so are Subsea and deep water asstes like constalattion are only liability. I feel they will pull Ezion also down with this. the stock will be worth 10 cents soon and imagine went IPO at 1.30 not so long ago?
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Observers Elite	01-Jun-2015 09:13        Observers About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I think oil price will have to recover considerably before deep sea can see the light. But seeing even mid cost US shale oil have to cut back, and those ultra low cost Middle East producers are not blinking, I don' t know how high cost deep sea can survive. I' ll just have to keep an eye on Sembmarine. Even Kepple Corp bought back Kepple Land, imo, to soften the potential blow to their O& G sector. Vested in Sembcorp and Keppel Corp.
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lglg666 Supreme	01-Jun-2015 09:04        lglg666 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Gut feel for tml will be fairly wild swing but should settle down soon and BB will try to support the price if not rights maybe have to price low which will be bad....at close will be in the green. Vested but may pick up more if the price tanked esp at the start. Voicing my own opinion only.
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Lucky03 Elite	01-Jun-2015 08:42        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	O&G sector will not dsappear. It is just a downturn that has to ride out. pnuklis      ( Date: 01-Jun-2015 08:33) Posted: Ezra as a company is sinking togather with Emas and Triyards. Lionel has got out of the board and now he will slowly exit out as the company has even no money to pay the bonds maturing. Ezra need to raise money to pay back earlier maturing bonds. OSV' s are not doing well and so are Subsea and deep water asstes like constalattion are only liability. I feel they will pull Ezion also down with this. the stock will be worth 10 cents soon and imagine went IPO at 1.30 not so long ago?
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Lucky03 Elite	01-Jun-2015 08:37        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I'll likely ignore the wild swing when market opens on Tuesday. Get ready to pick up the Rights. I'll take it as bonus if oil recovers in between and O&S
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pnuklis Master	01-Jun-2015 08:33        pnuklis About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Ezra as a company is sinking togather with Emas and Triyards. Lionel has got out of the board and now he will slowly exit out as the company has even no money to pay the bonds maturing. Ezra need to raise money to pay back earlier maturing bonds. OSV' s are not doing well and so are Subsea and deep water asstes like constalattion are only liability. I feel they will pull Ezion also down with this. the stock will be worth 10 cents soon and imagine went IPO at 1.30 not so long ago?
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