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China Fishery - Low PE
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stockpicker
Master |
12-Nov-2014 16:14
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CF lost over 0.015 or 4% just now to 0.335 with one small BB throwing 340 lots at 0.34 at one go. There were no big BB trading for the past 10 days. Look like this BB knew what was in the result to be announced. In the past, the BBs would push the price up before and then then sell down after the result. This time, they pushed down the price before the result announcement. Looks fishy especially when it approach the last low of 0.32 on Aug 2013. Making a double bottom? |
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stockpicker
Master |
12-Nov-2014 10:14
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We should not stop anyone from expressing his or her words or egos. It is part of the learning process. If anyone is offended by the discussions here, can always skip without reading them. |
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Leongsan
Senior |
12-Nov-2014 09:35
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The charade goes on. You can speculate and debate till the cows come home.What then? Buy or watch still? The HK co is having rights, the situation cannot be displayed as drastic? our aim is to make some money, not making egos larger. Stay focus and do not get " moody" or " fitch' at your decision. HAPPY FISHING
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stockpicker
Master |
12-Nov-2014 08:43
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As for why Copeinca bond holder won' t take the offer, undercurrent has this to explain.. &ldquo It&rsquo s very negative for bondholders to consent to this because Copeinca is now going to represent basically the vast majority of China Fishery&rsquo s earnings and it has the least amount of debt,&rdquo Mariela Anguiano, an analyst at BCP Securities, told Bloomberg. The bond is now 107, which is 7% more than the original value. Although 1% plus 9.75% sounds attractive, the risk is higher. If Copeninca bond is a subordinated bond, as pointed out by Moody, then the bondholder will be the last to get claim the money when CF went bankrupt. |
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stockpicker
Master |
12-Nov-2014 06:00
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Don' t be confused. My purpose is just to point out The followings are facts 1. CF repaid or returned $560 mil to the banks 2. CF is not redeemping the $250 mil Copeinca Bonds 3. CF has accumulated $2.0 bil of debts Until there are further proofs, the followings are just speculations 1. CF will have to " immediately" refinance Copeinca' s $250 million bonds if the solicitation failed 2. There will be a risk in refinancing the Copeinca bonds 3. CF would have to obtain a waiver from the banks to remove the subordination issue 4. Once CF and Copeinca integrated, they can issue bond at 2-3% basing on today' s environment. As for the wayang, eveyone is playing. There is nothing special about CF playing wayangs here. Think CF is doing it right there is no point using debts to redeemp the Copeinca bonds unless there are real tangible benefits. Spending 1 or 2 mil to integrate would be sufficient. |
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JMS213
Senior |
11-Nov-2014 22:54
Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !" |
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Haha ... Don' t think SLPY said that, maybe you got confuse with SLP. NOBODY is saying but the reverse it true many things can be done behind the curtains All that we are unhappy is the drag in unifying Copeinca and China fishery. Pretty much dramatic and like what SLPY said wayang Whether anything goes in between is not for me to say, unless someone blow the whistle. What we are curious is why won' t the bondholders take the offer .... Sound like they are worried taking over the debt of China Fishery which isn' t true .... Bondholders has the least to worry. For nothing enjoy consent fee 1% and continue with high return 9.75%. Maybe that' s why SLPY said " Who are these bondholders ?" Anyway no point to speculate, instead bring an end to all this wayang because it is becoming more and more apparent. We should move on ... 
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stockpicker
Master |
11-Nov-2014 21:46
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SLP, understand when CF borrowed $650 mil from the 5 banks to acquire Copeinca in 2013, the loan included $250 mil to redeemp the Copeinca bonds. You think CF could then act alone without the consent and support of the 5 banks and swallowed the money for other purposes? If they had the 5 banks' consent, then why there is risk of refinancing the bonds as speculated by Moody? |
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stockpicker
Master |
11-Nov-2014 20:49
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The speculators, especially those Copeinca bond holders, like to speculate that the banks had requested CF to settle the Copeinca bond issue so that Copeinca could guarantee the existing $1.2 bil bank loan as Copeinca is now the bread earner. Anyone has read the Bank loan contract? Is this really the case? If there is a contract, then why CF is so stupid to return back the $560 million just borrowed from the banks and resorted to sweet talking to settle the matter? I believe CF' s action on Copeinca bonds speaks for itself. Therefore, until CF change its stand, I don' t believe in such speculation. i believe these speculations will go away once CF can boost its earnings which every one is still expecting. |
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SLPY69
Senior |
11-Nov-2014 17:49
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Stockpicker, don' t be confused or made others blurred leh. Just look at the term " Solicitation" , " Subordination issue" beautiful sounding words correct .... Make it simple 1. Bondholders consent to guarantee China Fishery' s debt which is what the bank term it as " Subordination issue" [Btw who are these bondholders ??? Enjoying 9.75% plus consent fee 1% still not happy meh ... that' s a lot of money] Bondholders are the first to collect money before everyone else ... talk until they are so reluctant must set up teams to cajole them and sweeten the consent fee to make them happy ... Oh my goodness. 2. Refinance the Copeinca bond. 3. Obtain a waiver from the banks to remove the subordination issue JMS said why must pay the teams to tolong tolong the bondholders, stupid right ??? Bondholders gain with consent fee 1% and still enjoy 9.75%. Delay for 5 mths ... not wayang is what ??? Quickly find a closure, stop wasting time.
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stockpicker
Master |
11-Nov-2014 15:08
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It could have been clearer if you refer us to the Moody' s website. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:4_wfYnslYCwJ:https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-China-Fisherys-B2-outlook-to-negative--PR_312051+& cd=1& hl=en& ct=clnk& gl=sg The subordination issue refers to the Copeinca Bond and the refinancing risk on the $250 million is an supposition by Moody. Can' t quite understand the refinancing risk promoted by Moody. CF just repaid the banks $560 mil (presumably money from the $250mil Copeinca bonds and the Russian Pollock). The refinancing of the bonds should not be an issue until the bonds expires on 2017. Even then, not sure if there will be a refinancing risk since there is a Chinese saying " 有 借 有 还 ， 再 借 不 难 &ldquo If the banks are holding up the loan because of the bonds or if there is a refinancing risk on the bonds coming 2017, then would agree that it would not be wise for CF to dili dali here and there. 
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SLPY69
Senior |
11-Nov-2014 09:17
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Yeah Yeah Yeah ... Stockpicker " not another fabrication ? You are right, it is from Moody and reported by Undercurrent News Stockpicker said properly NOT ME huh. THEY, THE PRODUCERS fabricate a situation so they can Wayang .... hahahaha  Didn' t you hear this saying " God makes thing simple and man makes simple thing complex"
In the Nov. 6 note, Moody' s said it maintained its B2 rating for the group and its subsidiary CFG Investment S.A.C, which issued the bonds. " The outlook revision reflects the increased refinancing risk on the $250 million notes at Copeinca," said Lina Choi, a Moody' s vice president and senior analyst. China Fishery &mdash which is part of the Pacific Andes group &mdash has made " repeated efforts to resolve the subordination issue" that was attached as a condition on the bank debt it secured when acquiring Copeinca in August last year, said Moody' s. [created by who ? Banks] This included its request to Copeinca bondholders to guarantee China Fishery' s debt, a request that the bondholders snubbed despite three deadline extensions. &ldquo Most recently, in July 2014, the company sought consent solicitation from Copeinca&rsquo s bondholder for the upstream guarantees from [Copeinca], but it has been unsuccessful,&rdquo said Moody&rsquo s. Under the request, the Singapore-listed group pushed for Copeinca bondholders to back obligations including $650m of a $750m debt package issued in March, $300m in July 2019 bonds and $250m of senior notes or debt that it said could be issued in the future. At the time the $750m debt was raised, Pacific Andes said it would be used to repay Copeinca' s bonds, while paying to buy the remaining shares in Copeinca, and settling existing debt. Producer decided to create or fabricate a situation so they can WAYANG .... otherwise where got audience. Watch a show and when it is so predictable, you come out saying so boring. That' s life ... we like suspense, mystery and drama/wayang wayang |
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stockpicker
Master |
10-Nov-2014 20:14
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Not another fibrication? You mean the banks held up the loan? There is a subordination issue? Why CF kept quiet?
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SLPY69
Senior |
10-Nov-2014 08:42
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According to Moody' s, China Fishery had reported cash of $132m by June 28, 2014 and a further $120m cash repatriation expected from its Russian suppliers in the next 12 months, as part of its pull-out of Russian pollock. The B2 ratings continue to reflect the enlarged scale of China Fishery' s Peruvian fishmeal followings its acquisition of Copeinca and the progressive integration of the latter, it added. The acquisition made China Fishery into Peru' s largest anchovy catcher and fishmeal producer. Of course, the banks want the jewel which is Copeinca. The banks want access into Copeinca .... hahaha before they release monies to China Fishery. Indirectly they have to pay monies to the teams " to help in the SOLICITATION" ..... that' s how you have this phrase " storm in a teacup" hahahaha 
" .... refinance the Copeinca bond or obtain a waiver from the banks to remove the subordination issue." |
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stockpicker
Master |
10-Nov-2014 02:52
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Can' t quite understand why they are not aware Copeinca bonds has an effect on CF' s bank loan. Do you mean they have asked Banks for another loan and now banks charge more interest because of the Copeinca bond? You quoted Fitch saying China Fishery Group will have to " immediately" refinance Copeinca' s $250 million bonds if Copeinca bondholders refuse a request to guarantee debt belonging to China Fisher. Can only google search Fitch said China Fishery' s Ratings Not Impacted By Consent Solicitation. Are you fibricating what Fitch said.. that will be dangerous.
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stockpicker
Master |
10-Nov-2014 02:11
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What can one say??? They are loaded with money..
so they made a mistake after careful planning.. Quote: SLPY69 Senior 09-Nov-2014 18:57 .. The returned of the money to the banks was a mistake because they are not aware that the contract (by the previous owner of Copeinca) have a effect on the bank loan. 26-Aug-2014 11:10 You simply choose to speak untrue and it is becoming more and more apparent. They are careful with their planning and have consolidated their operation. You have exposed yourself ... maybe you should do your due diligence ... make the font size bigger so you can see better and clearer 26-Aug-2014 10:59 Can you imagine they used US$782million to buy Copeinca which is worth US$2,500million ? You simply don' t see it ..... don' t you ? .... China Fishery has received a Gold Mine .... $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Quit saying no money ... will you ? Banks know it .... " MUST NOW BE QUARANTEED BY COPEINCA" unquote |
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SLPY69
Senior |
09-Nov-2014 18:57
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Stockpicker don' t look at the wrong place for money. The returned of the money to the banks was a mistake because they are not aware that the contract (by the previous owner of Copeinca) have a effect on the bank loan. This is not a problem because Copeinca' s value is attractive, hence Fitch do not see a problem to refinance Copeinca' s $250millions bonds. August 26, 2014, 10:33 am
China Fishery Group will have to " immediately" refinance Copeinca' s $250 million bonds if Copeinca bondholders refuse a request to guarantee debt belonging to China Fisher, said Fitch Rating. That being the case, there is absolutely no need to bother about the consent from the bondholders. It is rather silly for them not to take the consent fee and continue to enjoy 9.75%.
Once redeemed it is the end of such high coupon rate.
 As JMS has rightly pointed out, once they are integrated, they can issue bond at 2-3% basing on today' s environment. Apple has capitalised on this and sold their bonds like hot cake at 1% only.
1% is still better than pay the banks to deposit their money .... Can you imagine China Fishery coupon rate drop from 9.75% to 3% ... wow 6.75% cost saving
Ok, will leave it to the Management to do the right thing. Help save some monies please .... from the teams that did nothing thus far
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stockpicker
Master |
09-Nov-2014 15:23
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Just in case someone claims that CF has money to pay for the bonds.. here are the statistics 1) Cash and short term investment : $94 mil (not enough for one years' expenses)] 2) Non current assets: $1.8 bil (out of which $1.3 bil are tangible assets such as Copeinca). Unless CF start selling some assets such as fishing boats etc don' t know how they can pay and redeemp the US $250 mil bonds without raising a loan. They borrowed $250 mil for the bonds but they returned $500 mil to the banks early 2014, think together with the money from Russian Pollock. A good decision. |
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stockpicker
Master |
09-Nov-2014 14:50
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Go read my posts. Repeat again: Concern only with debts and not concern about redeeming of bonds. Yes bond=debts but redeemping of bond is a separate thing if one can understand English. Why propose using debts to redeemp bonds? Will let this matter rest for the benefit of the readers. |
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SLPY69
Senior |
09-Nov-2014 09:49
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Stockpicker, to be fair to JMS, you were the one that is concern about the bonds and the debts issue. Please take a look what you have posted. As you have said settling the bonds is a zero sum game. MORE IMPORTANTLY, it paves the way for the integration of China Fishery and Copeinca into ONE ENTITY, Greater China Fishery. Agreed with you that earnings is important but let' s NOT FORGET, the importance of reducing the cost of borrowing. With that I don' t think JMS is wrong to suggest redeeming the loan after all that is also the banks' agenda for the bondholder' s consent. After integration, lower the cost of borrowings which is a considerable savings for the company.
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stockpicker
Master |
08-Nov-2014 11:27
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There is a time lag between fish catch and turning the catch into fishmeal. May be 2 to 3 months. The last no catch was around August. Copeinca could still report decent earning this 3rd quarter. |
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