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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
23-Oct-2014 19:27
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
Dear NOL Mgmt, sale of APL Logistics will unlock greater value to shareholders. My advise:
- IPO issuance will definitely increase value to NOL shareholders. - It will be best to expedite sales of APL Logistics in this turbulent market.
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
23-Oct-2014 19:02
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
When most people posseses negativity eyes, I claim the combined value of NOL port, ship + APL Logistics is over $1.50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Oct-2014 18:40
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The euro-area economy may have moved one step away from another recession.
A Purchasing Managers? Index showed manufacturing in the region unexpectedly grew this month, while Spain?s economy showed signs of a further recovery, with third-quarter unemployment dropping to the lowest level since 2011. In Germany, factories rebounded from a slump in September. ?The euro-zone recovery still has some legs,? said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Bank in Amsterdam. ?However, even if the recovery has not ground to a complete halt, growth remains much too weak for anyone?s comfort.? The 18-region economy failed to grow in the second quarter, and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has warned of a deflationary spiral of falling prices, with households postponing spending. While the PMI reports lifted stocks and the euro, they also highlighted weak spots as manufacturing demand fell and French factories continued to struggle. The euro-region factory PMI rose to 50.7 in October from 50.3, London-based Markit said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a drop to 49.9. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The measure for services held at 52.4. The euro rose 0.1 percent against the dollar and was at $1.2664 as of 9:34 a.m. London time. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index pared its decline after the report and was little changed. Anemic Growth In Germany, a gauge of factory activity unexpectedly jumped to 51.8 from 49.9, indicating that Europe?s largest economy may avoid a deeper slump. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg A composite gauge for manufacturing and services rose to 52.2 in October from 52 in September, beating the median estimate of economists. Within the survey, manufacturers reported a second straight drop in new orders, while new services business showed the smallest increase since January. The numbers suggest the euro area ?has so far avoided a slide back into recession this year,? said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit in London. At the same time, ?growth is so anemic that increasing numbers of companies are being forced into laying off staff and slashing prices.? In Germany, the factory gauge unexpectedly jumped to 51.8 from 49.9, indicating that Europe?s largest economy may avoid a deeper slump. Oliver Kolodseike, an economist at Markit, said there are ?still some uncertainties about the near-term.? In France, both services and manufacturing shrank more than estimated in October. Separate data from Spain today showed the unemployment rate fell to 23.7 percent in the three months through September from 24.5 percent in the previous quarter. That compares with the median estimate of 24.1 percent in a Bloomberg News survey. The Bank of Spain published its estimate for third-quarter economic growth and put it at 0.5 percent. That follows a 0.6 percent expansion in the previous quarter. ECB Response With the euro-area economy still at risk, the European Central Bank is in the midst of a new round of stimulus to revive growth and inflation. (ECCPEMUY ▲ 0.00% 0.30) The Frankfurt-based institution started buying covered bonds on Oct. 20 and plans to purchase asset-backed securities before the end of the year in an attempt to boost growth and prices in the region. Inflation in the currency bloc was 0.3 percent in September, far from the ECB?s goal of just below 2 percent. Today?s PMI report showed that companies cut prices by the most since February 2010 to try to boost demand. The ECB lowered its 2014 and 2015 growth forecasts to 0.9 percent and 1.6 percent last month. It predicts inflation rates of 0.6 percent in 2014 and 1.1 percent next year. Today?s data ?suggest the talks of another recession have been premature, though the picture of weak economic performance remains,? said Jan Von Gerich, a fixed-income analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Helsinki. ?The numbers do not change the outlook materially, and should not lead to a lasting rise in bond yields or the euro.? To contact the reporter on this story: Stefan Riecher in Frankfurt at [email protected] To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O?Brien at [email protected] Emma Charlton at [email protected] Jana Randow, Emma Charlton |
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Oct-2014 16:08
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German manufacturing unexpectedly returned to growth this month, indicating Europe?s largest economy may avoid a deeper slump.
The Purchasing Managers Index for the industry jumped to 51.8 from 49.9 in September, London-based Markit Economics said today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a drop to 49.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Bundesbank predicts little, if any, economic growth in Germany in the second half, citing subdued demand and ?gloomy? business sentiment. It said it may cut its forecasts after gross domestic product declined in the second quarter, and a series of disappointing data since then have underlined the risks for an economy that was at one time driving Europe?s recovery. ?There are still some uncertainties about the near-term,? said Oliver Kolodseike, an economist at Markit. ?Output growth may come under pressure in coming months.? An index for the services industry fell to 54.8 in October from 55.7 in September, while a composite gauge for both industries rose to 54.3 from 54.1, according to today?s report. French Data In France, services and manufacturing contracted more than analysts forecast in October in a sign that the euro area?s second-largest economy is failing to recover from stagnation in the first half of the year. A euro-area measure for both industries weakened to 51.5 from 52, economists said in a survey before a separate report due at 10 a.m. Frankfurt time. With the region?s two largest economies struggling to grow, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said he sees downside risks to the economy. Policy makers have reiterated that they stand ready to add stimulus if necessary to stave off deflation. The ECB started to buy covered bonds this week and is preparing to purchase asset-backed securities later this year. It has also cut interest rates twice since June and offered banks long-term loans to funnel credit to companies and households. To contact the reporter on this story: Stefan Riecher in Frankfurt at [email protected] To contact the editors responsible for this story: Fergal O?Brien at [email protected] Emma Charlton at [email protected] Jana Randow |
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Lucky03
Elite |
22-Oct-2014 15:10
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x 2 Alert Admin |
Unlike some shipping lines that stay focus on liners business, NOL has tried to offer bundled services including logistic and intermodal transport plus terminal services believing that they will be complementary and hence enhance their competitive advantage. Over to the years, the synergy has not been apparent and they can run independently without much of a loss in opportunity cost. Agreed that divestment is also a strategy to realise capital and lower leveraging and debt ratio. Don't think this is a wrong move and it will also allow NOL to focus on liner busniess and out it up for potential M&A activities.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
21-Oct-2014 13:26
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x 1 Alert Admin |
Almost all players in container shipping have their own plan to drive down the cost. The past few quarters or years result showing who obtain the best result and have better profit margin. Obviously, the cost reduction running game is favour to big players currently. NOL show no sign so far that they can change the situation now. Intend to sell logistic business is another sign that they are not able to turn the loss making situation to profitable in coming quarter. Again, just stated the fact that NOL will make loss again based on the market data and NOL development. If NOL turn profitable why they need to sell logistic business to raise cash?
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Lucky03
Elite |
21-Oct-2014 11:23
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x 0 Alert Admin |
As you said, low freight rate is here to stay and some companies such as Maersk is able to make profit because they managed to drive cost down. So question is not freight rate low but whether NOL has successfully bring the cost down with new fleets, return/retiring of older and more expensive ships, G6 alliance efficiency and overall higher volume and utilization rate. Lower fuel plus generally firner freight rate for Asia-US lanes and intermodal charges should be plus points. In fact the drastic drop in Asia-Europe didn't occur until nearing end of Q3 or end of Peak Season. They held up relatively well during the peak season.
Answer will be revealed in less than 2 weeks.
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phileasx
Member |
21-Oct-2014 09:27
Yells: "The market and your trades and positions are all linked!" |
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x 0 Alert Admin |
The rebound is so weak. I' ve reduced 60% of my position in this. Need to prepare ready to lose the ship. Results coming soon. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
21-Oct-2014 08:59
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x 0 Alert Admin |
It is not the matter of proving me right or wrong. It is just the matter of stating fact based on the market data. Stating NOL will continue to make loss in 2H 2014 is reasonable since the freight rate in 2H had a bad start, to be profitable, the current freight rate must be at least 10 to 20 percent higher compared to 1H 2014. It is unlikely to happen since Maersk and other giant operators are suppressing the market freight rate by filling with their new capacity.
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Lucky03
Elite |
21-Oct-2014 01:23
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Home / Shipping News / International Shipping News / Maersk Line to Raise Freight Rates by Over 100 Percent
Maersk Line to Raise Freight Rates by Over 100 Percent in International Shipping News 20/10/2014 Container shipping company Maersk Line, a unit of Danish conglomerate A.P. Moller-Maersk, plans to raise freight rates sharply on main routes from ports in Asia to ports in northern Europe, with effect from Nov 1. Rates for twenty foot equivalent unit containers (TEU) will rise by $900, Maersk Line spokesman said after the company sent a letter to clients. According to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, twenty foot rates from Asia to Europe stood at $705 this week and it is widely seen as a loss-making level. The world?s third biggest container shipping company, French CMA CGM, announced earlier this week its intention to increase freight rates on routes from Asia to North European ports by $850 per TEU. Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ole Mikkelsen editing by Sabina Zawadzki) Powered by Translate |
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Lucky03
Elite |
20-Oct-2014 21:24
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You must be in the shipping industry ? You seem so confident of Maersk and condemn NOL so much ! Well, NOL mgmt, wake up and prove earlybird wrong !
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earlybird14
Supreme |
20-Oct-2014 10:01
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1H 2014, NOL make loss. 2H 2014, obviously continue making loss. Let' s see if NOL management smart to make use of low oil price to do something or not. But i really doubt the poor management can do anything on it. But Maersk surely.
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Lucky03
Elite |
20-Oct-2014 00:29
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Lucky03
Elite |
20-Oct-2014 00:11
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Lucky03
Elite |
19-Oct-2014 11:46
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On the other hand, NOL could hedge it now for future ?
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Lucky03
Elite |
19-Oct-2014 11:35
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Crude oil is now lowest since 2010. Hedging is an essential tool but also need to be managed actively and flexibly. Problem with many companies is that it can also becomes both a risk and excuses when they were caught at the wrong end or they can't capitalise on opportunity presented by market swing. NOL is a very conservative company apparently from its responsiveness to market as well as its management relative silence on developments and corporate activities. I doubt it will be nimble and good enough to be able to take advantage of the significantly lower crude prices that emerged over the last few weeks. I hope they can prove me wrong !
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edwinjup
Supreme |
19-Oct-2014 07:40
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Current low oil price may help nol? If only nol did.not hedge it ... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
19-Oct-2014 07:38
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Another useful article with good charts for comparison of the players in the liner market. Go to the URL to read the charts.
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/how-carriers-make-money/ How carriers make money in International Shipping News 14/10/2014 Carriers can still make money despite falling freight rates, according to Drewry?s latest Container Annual Review & Forecast 2014/15. Surprisingly, some medium-sized lines retain unit cost advantages. Figure 1 First Half 2014 Scorecard: Comparison of EBIT Margins, Revenue of Selected Carriers Source: Drewry Maritime Research (www.drewry.co.uk), derived from ocean carrier financial reports Second-quarter income statements show that more ocean carriers are emerging from the red. From the 15 of the ?top 25? carriers (as measured by operated vessel capacity) that publish quarterly financial results, the number of profitable lines doubled from five in the first quarter to 10 in the second quarter. However, the distribution of profits was still extremely uneven and insufficient for most to eradicate their first quarter losses. The long road back towards profitability is now a very familiar one for most carriers ? sizeable reductions to unit costs to compensate for lower unit revenues. To clarify ? even though unit revenues are down by an estimated 4% year-on-year for the first six months of this year, the positive is that unit costs have been reduced by 6%. What separates the carriers is the speed of those reductions to rates and costs and when the journey started. For example, Maersk and CMA CGM were the first to lower slot costs through their larger fleets of Ultra Large Container Vessels (ULCVs) so that by moving a lot more boxes at a profit they are gapping their rivals in the profit stakes. Figure 2 shows that every single one of our sample carriers had lower estimated unit revenues (ie revenue per teu) in the first half 2014 than they did in the same period last year. Drewry?s analysis reveals that the deepest rate cuts were felt by CSAV, Zim, HMM and Hapag-Lloyd, all of which lost money in the first half. Figure 2 Selected Carriers? Volume, Unit Revenue Development, 1H 2014 (% change from previous year) Source: Drewry Maritime Research (www.drewry.co.uk) As previously mentioned, lower unit revenue is not automatically a barrier to profitability so long as that decrease is matched or bettered by a corresponding reduction for unit costs. The three carriers that found winning formulas for profitability in the first half 2014 were OOCL (EBIT margin of 4.2%) CMA CGM (4.8%) and way out in front Maersk Line (8.0%). Again, the shifting balance between unit revenues, costs and volumes was markedly different for all three carriers. OOCL as the smallest of three lines did a pretty remarkable job of attracting new customers ? volumes rose by a market leading 10.1% in the first half ? without having to ?buy? them with significantly lower rates. OOCL?s unit revenues were down by 2.8% but even with all that additional cargo total costs only rose by 2.6%, meaning that unit costs fell by an estimated 6.8%. French carrier CMA CGM saw its unit revenue decrease at the same rate as its unit costs in the first half, which is why its EBIT margin remains stuck at around 4.8%, easily good enough for a place on the podium but a long way behind Maersk. The Danish mega-carrier?s first-half profit margin was 3.2 points higher than its closest rival due to the extraordinary feat of lowering total cost (by 0.2%) at the same time as moving an extra 600,000 teu. Neither did this 7% volume growth come at a heavy price as Maersk?s unit revenue decreased by just 2.2% year-on-year, the third lowest in our sample behind APL and Hanjin. OOCL?s ability to streamline its operations means that it has the lowest unit costs of all the sample carriers, see Figure 3. Considering it does not have a particularly large fleet of ULCVs in comparison to some of its peers shows that OOCL has found other ways of doing business efficiently. Figure 3 Medium Carriers Still Able to Compete on Unit Costs Source: Drewry Maritime Research (www.drewry.co.uk) Maersk is currently in a sweet spot where it is able to lower its break-even line and still make more money on every box it moves. Drewry estimates that it made $115 per teu in the first half 2014, up from $76/teu in the same period last year. To give some context to its competitive edge, CMA CGM?s profit per teu in 1H14 was estimated at $66, with OOCL?s pegged at $48. While the outlook for industry profitability is definitely improving, it wouldn?t take much to derail the recovery. Further unit costs are expected for next year, but there is a limit to how much fat can be trimmed (a topic we will cover in a future edition of Container Insight Weekly), whereas freight rate reductions can be much deeper, as witnessed by the recent collapse in the Asia-Europe spot market. Our View Carriers must continue to lower unit costs to be profitable in the short-term as freight rates will decline. For more sustainable industry profits, carriers will need to reverse the unit revenue trend at some stage. Source: Drewry Maritime Research (www.drewry.co.uk/ciw) Powered by Translate |
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Lucky03
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19-Oct-2014 07:21
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A long but useful assessment from BIMCO. The usual issue of supply and demand and the trend of alliances, cost cutting and efficiency. However, one key point to note is the divergence of the Asia-Europe and Asia-US lanes. The freight rates were relatively firmer for both amid stronger growth rate attributable to restocking of inventory until the start of peak season. The supply emerged and pressed the fright rate for Asia-Europe down significantly but conversely, the Asia-US freight rate continued to appreciate. As said, I can't ascertain the percentage of trade for NOL from Asia-US vis a vis Asia-Europe and hence the relative impact on its P&L. I find that NOL is too news averse and difficult to anticipate its performance. There should be more significant savings from the G6 alliance going forward and NOL may be one of the major beneficiary as it may have a larger fleet of new and bigger ships. Go to the URL below especially if you wish to see the charts.
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/container-shipping-is-the-strong-level-of-demand-sustainable-going-forward/ Container Shipping: Is the strong level of demand sustainable going forward? in International Shipping News 16/10/2014 DEMAND Two key trading lanes attract attention these days: one being the major battlefield today ? the other being the potential battlefield of tomorrow. Today?s main battlefield is the Far East to Europe trading lane, which recorded a demand growth of 8.0% in the first seven months of the year as compared to the same period last year according to CTS. August contributed further to a strong year, coming in 8.6% higher than August 2013. Knowing the sad state of the European economies, unfortunately, such a strong increase in demand appears to originate more from inventory restocking than anything else. Regardless of the reason, the strong demand side has brought down the number of idle ships and eased the integration of newbuilt Ultra Large Containerships (ULCS) into the Far East to Europe trading lane. At the same time, freight rates have been firm until the start of the peak season. At the busiest time of the year in container shipping it appears as though the market has been awash with tonnage. This has brought freight rates down. The recent Golden Week holiday in China has caused supply to contract to meet the new level of demand. It remains to been seen whether the next round of General Rates Increases can turn the tables once more and bring about higher freight rates. Regarding the battlefield of the future ? the Far East to US East Coast trading lane ? we have seen a very steady freight rate level improve going into the peak season. Hitting a new record high level on 1 August USD 4,187 per FEU, rates peaked at USD 4,636 per FEU a month later. BIMCO data shows a demand growth of 8.7% for the first eight months leading the rally. Why might the Far East to US East Coast lane become the battlefield of the future? For several reasons. A) The expansion of the Panama Canal to service container ships up to 13,000 TEU from 2016. B) The enlargement of Suez Canal started only a couple of months ago. C) The heightening of the Bayonne Bridge to allow ULCS to call New York/New Jersey. D) The ongoing delivery of ULCS is likely to introduce some of the cost-effective ULCSs on this long-haul trade to reap the economics of scale, beyond the preferred trade for them which is Far East to Europe. E) The expansion of other US East Coast ports that allow them to receive the giant vessels in future, by dredging and introducing larger ?Super-Post-Panamax? cranes. The volume growth is already there with much room for expansion. Time will tell how that trade will develop. Extremely poor demand for second-hand Panamax ships of 4,000 TEU has brought asset prices to the floor for that ship type and size. According to vesselsvalue.com, second-hand prices are down by 26% to 38% since the beginning of the year. This can be compared to positive developments in prices for all ships of a larger size. The graph show the development in valuation of a 4,200 TEU Panamax ship built in 2009 with a beam of 32.2 metres and a speed consumption specification of 24 knots at 135 tonnes. SUPPLY We have seen a strong individual ?commitment? to mitigate the supply side impact from the liner companies during the last 2-3 years. Nevertheless, developments during the past two months have derailed this somewhat. The fleet has grown by 4.9% in the year so far, and is on track to grow faster this year than in 2013 on an annualized basis. The demolition of non-competitive ships, which has been brisk in the first seven months, has cooled down promptly in August/September from a monthly average of 43,618 TEU in the months of January to July to a monthly average of just 14,569 TEU in the most recent two months. This indicates that demolition going forward may not be as strong as it has been this year and the year before. Year-to-date scrapping now amounts to 335,000 TEU. Moreover, investors have lost their cool, as ships with a combined capacity of 254,000 TEU have been ordered in the past six weeks. Of these, 15 are ultra large container ships in the region of 13,780-19,200 TEU and 12 are small feeders, with an average size of 1,327 TEU. The size trend in orderings has become even more explicit and it continues what we have seen throughout the year. In spite of the recent ordering flurry, year-to-date contracting activity amounts to 828,000 TEU a significant improvement to the full year new orderings of 2013 at 2.1 million TEU. Postponements during in recent months provide a beacon of hope. Amongst other ships, 10 ULCS originally scheduled for delivery in 2014 have been postponed to 2015. This has reduced the market pressure from newbuildings delivered this year further ? still high, but eased by the impressive demolition activity. This hectic postponement activity has caused us to adjust our postponement assumptions from 10% to 15%, as owners and investors realise that too many orders delivered too soon cannot be absorbed by the market without a considerable negative impact. Looking ahead, BIMCO estimates a four-year-high fleet growth level for 2015, as long as the delivery of newbuildings keeps surging while demolition is set to ease off. OUTLOOK The past two months have once again proved that freight rates on container trades move in mysterious ways. What seems like a trend turns out to be anything but, and what seems to be industry knowing exactly how much supply is needed to make the best out of a strong demand side, pushes it too far. The market is now past the peak season and supply management is as high as ever on the agenda for an industry being characterised by a full focus on cost cutting initiatives as it strives to restore profitability. The companies toughest on costs and the ones with the most efficient ways to operate their business networks and exploit the economies of scale offered by the market, will come out on top. Alliances and extensive vessel sharing agreements are now completely dominating all trades in the industry. No single liner company can reach the next level of operational excellence on its own. Time will tell if all the initiatives and subsequent money saved will end up in the Profit/Loss statements of the liner companies. Or whether their customers are able to negotiate their share of the savings. A factor in the future market that may not seem that significant today can have a large impact on the future exports of manufactured goods. The market today is dominated by China, a nation which will still be the dominant player going forward ? but not undisputedly. Higher wage costs in China that producers are unable to pass on to consumers are set to bring to life other and cheaper manufacturing centres. Pushing that development forward is also the 30% rise in the Chinese Renminbi against the USD over the past decade, as Beijing slowly allows the Renminbi to appreciate. Indonesia, Bangladesh and Myanmar are on the rise and China may lend them an unexpected hand. Source : BIMCO |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Oct-2014 23:08
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Expect to see more corporate development at NOL. Next is line is the APL Terminal but then again, perhaps APL Terminal has more synergy with the liner than APL Logistic to be sold off ? Once lean, APL is ready for itself to be acquired or merged or even privatized to allow it more flexibility to restructure itself. It should be exciting period ahead but the current price movement is certainly a big dampener. NOL needs to be more transparent, move more swiftly and decisively as the market is apparently losing faith in its competitiveness and ability to execute well and fast. Even the sales of APL Logistic is doubtful until the filing by the Korean company. Else, there is total silence on any development for 2 mths since the news leaked to Reuters ! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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