| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
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NOL
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Trespasserx
Senior |
13-Oct-2014 17:32
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Historical low past 5 yrs yes.. But I did visit all the way into history.. Got 60 plus cent before but it could be ard a decade or more than a decade ago ha
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phileasx
Member |
13-Oct-2014 17:26
Yells: "The market and your trades and positions are all linked!" |
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I got some @0.865 today. I see some factors which could benefit to NOL. stronger USD means lower local operating cost. lower Oil price means lower cost. The rates have improved in Q3, and holding up at at yearly high level (of course still low on a 5 yearly bassis). Improvement in business environment could mean a lot. Btw, is 0.865 a historical new low?.. |
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Davidson
Senior |
13-Oct-2014 17:25
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Dear Expert, any advise for this counter. I have average this counter At $1.05. This counter fall never end. Any negative news for this giant?? Thing doesn't look good for this counter | ||||
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Davidson
Senior |
13-Oct-2014 12:14
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This giant counter has no support at all. Free fall! 😔 | ||||
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danger
Supreme |
13-Oct-2014 11:23
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lucky from around $1.10 talk until 87c now .... maybe worth a buy at about 81c |
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tadalada
Member |
13-Oct-2014 08:58
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Just curious, lucky, are you working in the industry? you seemed to be very well informed and updated |
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Oct-2014 15:23
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OCBC Research may not have factored in 2 facts. NOL may have retired all 34 ships by 2014 - 14 in 2013, 14 in H1 2014 and possibly the remaining 6 in Q3 2014 based on its latest fleet updates issued 19 Sep 2014 and not wait till FY15.
OCBC Research probably was made before the following announcement from TSA made on 9 Oct below. OCBC upgraded NOL to HOLD recommendation was based on forecast of US$264m loss for FY14 and US$238m for FY15. Having registered total of US$147m loss todate for H1 FY14, that will mean further total loss of US$117m for Q3 and Q4. We will wait and see the result of Q3 on 31 Oct after market closes. The Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement (TSA) is moving away from general rate increases (GRI) to contract rate objectives for 2015 ? 2016 annual contracts. TSA is recommending its members seek minimum rates of $2,000 per feu from North Asia to the US West Coast and $3,500 per feu from North Asia to the US East Coast. From Southeast Asia to the US West Coast the recommended minimum is $2,150 per feu and $3,650 to the US East Coast. There will varying levels minimum for different inland destinations for example North Asia to Chicago would be $3,900 per feu and from Southeast Asia $4,050 per feu. For 20-foot boxes rates will be assessed at 90% of the feu rate.
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Oct-2014 09:27
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OCBC Research
Neptune Orient Lines: Key focus still on operational efficiency We recently met up with Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) and noted that operational efficiency continues to be the key focus going forward for its liner segment, mainly through its fleet renewal programme. Overall, we expect fleet capacity to shrink by ~5% after the planned retirement of 34 chartered vessels are completed by FY15. With a leaner and more efficient fleet, we believe cost savings are likely derived from: 1) lower bunker costs, 2) network reconfiguration, and 3) leveraging on its G6 alliance for top-line growth. We also believe supply growth will continue to exceed forecasted demand growth putting downward pressure on freight rates. However, we expect the effects of operational efficiency and capacity discipline to partly offset the effects of lower profitability from depressed freight rates in its liner segment. Hence, we reduce FY14F and FY15F losses by a slight 3.7% to US$268.7m and 2.4% to US$238.2m, respectively, and with the recent slide in its share price since our last update in Aug-14, we upgrade NOL to HOLD on valuation grounds with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.90.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Oct-2014 16:28
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Finally seeing some strength in NOL holding on. Let's see if it will be pushed to green at closing.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Oct-2014 16:21
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Maersk will not be naive to believe they can seriously ignore China. Else, they wouldn't have scrapped 3M when it was rejected by China.
Don't see how 2M success will benefit me as there is a likelihood it will lead to either further erosion of freight rate as Maersk will rather offer even lower freight rate to gain market share at the expense of better profit.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Oct-2014 16:05
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Could have seen the worst of NOL. I won't be surprised if any financial institution issue Buy Recommendation based on current price. | ||||
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earlybird14
Supreme |
10-Oct-2014 11:15
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Never try, never know. keep trying, once success, huge profit waiting for them. 2M alliance will lower down the shipping cost further and improve efficiency. It will benefit China, you and me. If China don' t approve it, 2M alliance still can be formed for other shipping route like US to Europe, South America to Europe, Africa to Europe, South East Asia to Europe, Japan to Europe and etc. At the end, the trend may be shipping the containers out from China and go to international port or other ports for distribution.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Oct-2014 10:37
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And yet they are asking others not to buy ships ! Their motive is very obvious. China should kill the 2M alliance ! However, they have announced they are going ahead in Jan after US has given their approval with a 4-1 votes while pending China's approval. They seriously going ahead without respecting China's approval ? | ||||
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earlybird14
Supreme |
10-Oct-2014 10:31
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http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/maersk-spend-3-billion-year-new-ship-orders_20140924.html Maersk Line plans to invest $3 billion a year for up to five years to order ships with a combined capacity of 425,000 20-foot-equivalent units for delivery between 2017 and 2019, enabling the world&rsquo s largest carrier to grow with the market. 3billion a year? Maersk Line is changing the market by killing the small player.
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Lucky03
Elite |
10-Oct-2014 10:22
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NOL runs their business like a secret agent. Can hardly read any news about them in the market unlike the other major liners. This makes it very difficult to assess any progress made by NOL except when they announce their quarterly report :( | ||||
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danger
Supreme |
10-Oct-2014 10:18
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I TOLD IT IS FINISHED..PERHAPS AROUND 81c can buy some |
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Trespasserx
Senior |
09-Oct-2014 22:49
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This could mean 2 things.. One they are expanding cos of potential upturn.. Second they gave up on the current batch of incumbent ha.. And looking to replace them
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Lucky03
Elite |
09-Oct-2014 22:31
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The price of NOL can't be more detached from its potential and the anticipated change in the shipping industry in coming years as they attempt to re-engineer its business model amid clear sign of growth in container volumes. One can read that all ports are bursting to cope and rushing to upgrade.
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Heero78
Veteran |
09-Oct-2014 22:09
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Not sure whether u guys realize it or not. There is a strings of job posting by NOL in job street/indeed. There was even a career fair at last 26 September in suntec.   If I remember correctly, there was a head count freeze by NOL in the last few years. |
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halleluyah
Supreme |
09-Oct-2014 17:55
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0.90 broken, next support 0.85....Abt 4 yrs of lossing $$.... 
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