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Lucky03 Elite	26-Sep-2014 21:54        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Won't it be so much easier and more flexible for Tamasek to just take NOL private and do whatever they want including any divestment and M&A ? sgng123      ( Date: 26-Sep-2014 16:41) Posted: Well the merger talk might already in progress just that it is not public known yet as detail not finalise, might explain why NOL need to divest away APl logistic since they had no need to do it as their slot cost reduction is gaining traction and soon  positive results due to more charters returned. I see no brainer in divestinng APL logistic unless they wanna to do merger with other liner to form a bigger shippig company and NOl washing hands off managing the shipping. Likely merger partner would be the newly formed hapag + CSAV since both covered the europe and south american trade just need APL north america + asia trade to complete it. Would face less restriction from national adminstrations from both US/Europe since the  market share is ver yevenly distributed among the major trade lane. If that happen, the new formed shipping group would replace CMA as the third largest one slightly behind marserk and MSC. Not to mention the added benefit of additonal cost cutting from eliminating duplicated adminstration centre and more scope to take out charters. Divesting APL logisitic most likely are used for lower the high debt level, as  seen from hapag and csav, both had to raise fund from state to lower their debt level before they merge. the best part is both are from the same alliance group G6 lol, so no major one time cost from merger it busines as usual lol. Lucky03      ( Date: 26-Sep-2014 00:04) Posted: Thanks for sharing spore1. It may be true as Maersk has said it will buy more big ships even through it anticipates that freight rate will stay low or even gets lower. It is able to deliver profit nonetheless as it can operate at even lower cost. In the meantime, the lower freight rate will wipe out those who cannot realise the cost efficiency fast enough. Maersk is the biggest winner with increasing market share ! M&A will be the trend as company will merge to gain the economy of scale. National interest aside, NOL will be a suitable M&A target. Problem is that they certainly taking long time to act
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sgng123 Supreme	26-Sep-2014 16:41        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Well the merger talk might already in progress just that it is not public known yet as detail not finalise, might explain why NOL need to divest away APl logistic since they had no need to do it as their slot cost reduction is gaining traction and soon  positive results due to more charters returned. I see no brainer in divestinng APL logistic unless they wanna to do merger with other liner to form a bigger shippig company and NOl washing hands off managing the shipping. Likely merger partner would be the newly formed hapag + CSAV since both covered the europe and south american trade just need APL north america + asia trade to complete it. Would face less restriction from national adminstrations from both US/Europe since the  market share is ver yevenly distributed among the major trade lane. If that happen, the new formed shipping group would replace CMA as the third largest one slightly behind marserk and MSC. Not to mention the added benefit of additonal cost cutting from eliminating duplicated adminstration centre and more scope to take out charters. Divesting APL logisitic most likely are used for lower the high debt level, as  seen from hapag and csav, both had to raise fund from state to lower their debt level before they merge. the best part is both are from the same alliance group G6 lol, so no major one time cost from merger it busines as usual lol. Lucky03      ( Date: 26-Sep-2014 00:04) Posted: Thanks for sharing spore1. It may be true as Maersk has said it will buy more big ships even through it anticipates that freight rate will stay low or even gets lower. It is able to deliver profit nonetheless as it can operate at even lower cost. In the meantime, the lower freight rate will wipe out those who cannot realise the cost efficiency fast enough. Maersk is the biggest winner with increasing market share ! M&A will be the trend as company will merge to gain the economy of scale. National interest aside, NOL will be a suitable M&A target. Problem is that they certainly taking long time to act ! spore1      ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 22:13) Posted: Heard ppl saying bigger container vessel of 18 -24000 TEU is causing more damage to Freight rate vs the benefit of costs of fuel efficiency .trade with care .seems like not so promising
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counter Veteran	26-Sep-2014 08:36        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Hopefully it can happen again.
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Lucky03 Elite	26-Sep-2014 07:58        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL Net Book Value is S$0.9356. It has bounced off from this floor price over the last few rounds.
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counter Veteran	26-Sep-2014 03:46        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	In game theory terms, this is called a dominant strategy. spore1      ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 22:13) Posted: Heard ppl saying bigger container vessel of 18 -24000 TEU is causing more damage to Freight rate vs the benefit of costs of fuel efficiency .trade with care .seems like not so promising
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Lucky03 Elite	26-Sep-2014 00:04        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks for sharing spore1. It may be true as Maersk has said it will buy more big ships even through it anticipates that freight rate will stay low or even gets lower. It is able to deliver profit nonetheless as it can operate at even lower cost. In the meantime, the lower freight rate will wipe out those who cannot realise the cost efficiency fast enough. Maersk is the biggest winner with increasing market share ! M&A will be the trend as company will merge to gain the economy of scale. National interest aside, NOL will be a suitable M&A target. Problem is that they certainly taking long time to act ! spore1      ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 22:13) Posted: Heard ppl saying bigger container vessel of 18 -24000 TEU is causing more damage to Freight rate vs the benefit of costs of fuel efficiency .trade with care .seems like not so promising
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spore1 Supreme	25-Sep-2014 22:13        spore1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Heard ppl saying bigger container vessel of 18 -24000 TEU is causing more damage to Freight rate vs the benefit of costs of fuel efficiency .trade with care .seems like not so promising
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Lucky03 Elite	25-Sep-2014 21:14        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Agree ! I was disappointed with its Q2 result but its Q3 has a high chance of surprising on the upside. Don't think we will have to wait till then to hear updates on the divestment plan for APL Logistic. counter      ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 20:00) Posted: I see value in NOL at this price. If you do not see value at this price, sell it. If you do, keep it. If you do not trust your own judgement, what else can you trust in the stock market. The noises from forummers like danger?
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counter Veteran	25-Sep-2014 20:00        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I see value in NOL at this price. If you do not see value at this price, sell it. If you do, keep it. If you do not trust your own judgement, what else can you trust in the stock market. The noises from forummers like danger?
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counter Veteran	25-Sep-2014 19:35        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Do not be disheartened and never say never. When the price hit 0.93 about 2 months ago, everything seemed so bleak. Before we knew it, the price hit 1.03, and of course, before we know it, the price is now .... Davidson      ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 18:01) Posted: Thanks Rande. For nol I have $1.12, 0.965. Of course as a retail investor I wish to buy at the cheapest or how to break even. I cannot blindly park my money. No one know when is highest & lowest. The fall can continue to fall..... Those who park at highest price dun ever think the price can go back again....
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Davidson Senior	25-Sep-2014 18:01        Davidson About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks Rande. For nol I have $1.12, 0.965. Of course as a retail investor I wish to buy at the cheapest or how to break even. I cannot blindly park my money. No one know when is highest & lowest. The fall can continue to fall..... Those who park at highest price dun ever think the price can go back again....
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sgng123 Supreme	25-Sep-2014 15:03        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Apl is doing full suite service from factory > port > customers, the big problem is they charge everything to one flat contract rate. By divesting out their non core shipping business, it is unlocking value to investors as they could now get more business and charge market rate for service they provide instead of 1 fixed rate for everything. Way to go for NOl is to divest everything and go backto the basic of sea transport which maesrk is doing now. Currently interest dying out due to no further news from APL logistic divestment so share price drop back to where it started till Q3 swing back to black then ship would move north couple with APL logistic IPO/sale news later this year or early next year. IT  is a very slow grind for NOL investors as the shipping group is too big and lot of national interest slow it restructure exercise. NOL not a commerical shipping/logistic company, it more of state owned and corporate type so when it need to change lot of resistance from within and outside( exporters). Just think of that US$1.2 B just from cost cutting these 2 years and more to come which commercial shipping company can cut like that. More pressure need to be on the management to cut even more. NOl investors all must be grinding their teeth and want to beat the ass out of management. Lucky03      ( Date: 24-Sep-2014 07:57) Posted: I always wonder if APL is in intermodal fright business or purely sea container plus APL Logistic warehousing and APL Terminal. I do see APL container trucks on the road. Shouldn't they be benefiting from positive news like below ? Continued rise in contract truck rates, freight demand likely, FTR says William B. Cassidy, Senior Editor | Sep 23, 2014 4:24PM EDT U.S. shippers are paying more to move goods inland as contract truck pricing rises as the fall inland peak shipping season gets under way, according to FTR Associates. The research firm doesn't expect that trend to change any time soon, as manufacturing, construction and consumer demand increase in the second half of 2014. "Our numerous interactions with shippers, truck fleets and railroads only enhanced our conviction that the freight transportation markets remain strained," Jonathan Starks, FTR director of transportation analysis, said after the annual FTR transportation conference. Spot market truck rates have been running high all summer, setting the stage for contract rate hikes. FTR attributes some of the rate hikes to the rising cost of finding and hiring drivers. FTR?s Shippers Conditions Index for July fell 1.3 points from the previous month to a reading of minus-7.8, reflecting tightening truck capacity and a strong upward move in contract pricing. Any SCI reading below zero indicates what FTR calls a "less-than-ideal environment" for shippers ? meaning higher costs and less capacity. Readings below minus-10 signal that conditions are approaching "critical levels," based on available capacity and expected rates. FTR said it expects the Shippers Condition Index to stay in negative territory "for the foreseeable future" as freight demand increases and spot market and contract truck rates rise. The "silver lining," Starks said, is that FTR expects only "limited capacity shortages" this fall. "The downside is that truck rates are continuing to move higher and are unlikely to stop that momentum this year," he said. Ongoing railroad service problems are likely to continue into the winter, making intermodal rail less of a pressure-release valve for over-the-road shippers. "It will take even more work, and possibly delays, to get your non-optimized loads moved," said Starks, as truckers in a tight market choose the most "optimal" freight. Contact William B. Cassidy at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @wbcassidy_joc.
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danger Supreme	25-Sep-2014 14:36        danger About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	94c already .. A goner
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counter Veteran	25-Sep-2014 10:17        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Indeed, NOL has not stayed quiet for the last two months but this can be for better or worse. Let us hope it can perform well.
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Lucky03 Elite	25-Sep-2014 09:13        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NOL won't and can't stay quiet for too long.
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counter Veteran	25-Sep-2014 08:19        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Davidson,  this is a  strategy but not one that everybody who is anybody can adopt. The biggest problem with the strategy is the fear factor which you need to be able to overcome if you want to  create wealth with wealth  in the stock market. If you need help on this, you can read the following which can help you understand the cognitive mind and therefore improve your ability to manage  fear. It is a must-read book for trading,  especially for short-term traders. Rande Howell Traders State of Mind
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counter Veteran	25-Sep-2014 07:05        counter About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Fundamental   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	good advice Lucky03      ( Date: 25-Sep-2014 00:31) Posted: It's very difficult if not impossible to catch at the bottom of a range. If you want to play safe, then enter 1/3 then another 1/3 if it falls further and then another 1/3 if it falls even further. That's assuming you are comfortable of its worth or NTA and also that it will not be gone like one of those Chinese firms in earlier days. Many will just regret when they miss the boat. Davidson      ( Date: 24-Sep-2014 16:35) Posted: What is the next low entry point? This share dun look good keep going down?
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Davidson Senior	25-Sep-2014 06:55        Davidson About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Noted. Thank you
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Lucky03 Elite	25-Sep-2014 01:03        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Maersk going to buy even more ships ! PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 25, 2014 Maersk to invest billions in new ships PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE [COPENHAGEN] Denmark's AP Moller-Maersk said on Wednesday it would invest billions of dollars in new ships, reap hundreds of millions in savings and announced valuable contracts for its drilling rigs. But shares of the world's largest container shipping company fell more than 3 per cent, partly because it failed to announce any of the initiatives the market had anticipated for its investor day in Copenhagen. Analysts had hoped that Maersk would say it had sold a big oil asset in Angola, which would have cut future capital investments, or unveil an increase in its payments to shareholders. Instead, container shipping arm Maersk Line said it would spend US$3 billion a year between 2015 and 2019 on new vessels. Although the industry is suffering from oversupply, companies are ditching older and smaller ships for fewer but larger ones. "Due to our size, we need 425,000 20 foot equivalent units (TEU) delivered between 2017 and 2019," Maersk Line Chief Executive Soren Skou told analysts at Maersk's headquarters overlooking the Oresund Strait between Denmark and Sweden. That works out to about 23 of Maersk's Triple E vessels - the largest in the world by capacity with a length of almost four soccer pitches. Maersk Line, which contributed the largest portion of underlying profits last year, also expects to save US$350 million a year from its shipping alliance with its nearest rival, the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). Maersk Line earned Us$1.5 billion in profits on US$26.2 billion of revenues. It controls around 20 per cent of transported goods on the world's busiest route between Asia and Europe and has a global market share of around 15 per cent. Its profit margin has been 5 percentage points higher than its rivals for almost two years. However, investors were not pleased and shares closed 3.47 per cent lower at 14,460 Danish crowns each. The stock hit an all-time high of 15,200 crowns last week after analysts hiked price targets due to a share buyback programme. Traders cited the lack of any big announcements at the investor day as well as a 2.3 per cent fall in the European freight and logistics sector due to a profit warning from Dutch logistics company TNT Express and worries about Chinese economic growth. "Expectations were high ahead of the capital markets day,"said Sybank head of equities Ole Jensen. "Then we saw a downgrade of Chinese growth outlook from Goldman Sachs and the World Trade Organisation cut its trade growth forecasts. So this fear for global growth combined with a day without any big news is putting Maersk under pressure." Nevertheless, finances at the shipping and oil conglomerate are in good health - it was one of the few among the top 15 in its industry to report a first-half profit this year as the sector struggles to recover from the global economic slump.- Reuters
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Lucky03 Elite	25-Sep-2014 00:31        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It's very difficult if not impossible to catch at the bottom of a range. If you want to play safe, then enter 1/3 then another 1/3 if it falls further and then another 1/3 if it falls even further. That's assuming you are comfortable of its worth or NTA and also that it will not be gone like one of those Chinese firms in earlier days. Many will just regret when they miss the boat. Davidson      ( Date: 24-Sep-2014 16:35) Posted: What is the next low entry point? This share dun look good keep going down?
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