| Latest Forum Topics / Neptune Orient L Rg |
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NOL
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 15:12
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Just continue live with your own world.
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 14:42
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Dear earlybird14,
Quoted: Sending a 20 foot container to europe from china is less than 1000 USD" ● My remark: This is because of distance travelled. Do you know shipping from Singapore to Europe costs $2000 per 20ft cntr? Fyi: We use short cut in shipping (ft, cntr) Quoted: If oil price go lower further, some shipment may change to airfreight which demand for faster delivery but affordable. ● My remark: You have poor knowledge of why people ship by Airfreight & Seafreight. - What is the cost of putting a 20ft in seafreight compared to airfreight? Airfreight is for perishable & high tech or expensive products. (Advantage: Shorter time transit & Better handling) Seafreight is for bulky & heavy goods that are more economical to ship by sea. Fyi: You can check statement with Logistics personnel & see if is feasible. Logistics & Supply Chain will probably disagree with this statement. Quote: Alliance? There are more than 100 container shipping lines in the world. Top 3 Maersk, MSC and CMA want to form P3 are rejected by CHina, P2 are on the way. So, top 3 are not in any alliance. G6 only formed by 6 companies only. ● My remark: Top 3 may not be in alliance? You are wrong again. Maersk Line & MSC are in alliance. www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/fmc-approves-2m-alliance-of-maersk-line-and-msc.html NOL G6 are also alliance. * Pls do not speak just because you feel like speaking. Your fact is wrong. FYI: Shipping is either alliance or merger, or both to survive to tap on shared network & infrastructures. I won't comment further because your shipping knowledge is all wrong.
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Heero78
Veteran |
02-Dec-2014 14:37
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i think both of you made a good point. Lower oil price definitely will help NOL but at the same time, will also push down the freight rate due to oversupply. The key point is the sweet equilibrium point between these 2. Whether NOL can make profit out of it, it is everyone s guessing
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:59
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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● When oil price is high, it eats into profitability.
● When oil price is low, it boost profitability. Comparing the period when NOL makes profit (Period of sustainable & low Oil Price) vs loss (Increasing Oil Price in past 5 years). There is always a correlation between Oil Price & Profitability. NOL is about to enter sustainable & low Oil Price period.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:52
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Shipping volume is subjected to world economic, demand and supply. it is the cheapest way to send good to oversea. Sending a 20 foot container to europe from china is less than 1000 USD. If oil price go lower further, some shipment may change to airfreight which demand for faster delivery but affordable. Alliance? There are more than 100 container shipping lines in the world. Top 3 Maersk, MSC and CMA want to form P3 are rejected by CHina, P2 are on the way. So, top 3 are not in any alliance. G6 only formed by 6 companies only. If Alliance can work for price war avoidance, container freight rate won' t be so low as per today market. Components for NOL, Their restructuring & cost saving doesn' t pay anything to stakeholder so far, when they declare 20million loss, some asia shipping line from Japan and Korea have declared breakeven, don' t mention about 2 billion profit from Maersk line. Not talking bad but talking fact. NOL has a price, without selling APL logistic, NOL is fully valued now.
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:50
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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I believe NOL is standing in golden period of sustainable oil price era (Current Oil price $79, then have a great opportunity to drop till $55 to $65). | ||||
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:43
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Oil Price is likely to continue till Jun to July, with OPEC scheduled on Jun next year. Oil & Gas companies made billions by jacking oil price up in past 5 years, which made oil cost unsustainable for many companies depending on Oil.
Oil crisis (Falling Oil Price) will rejuvenate many companies (Air & Shipping), allowing them to make profitable margin from their transportation of goods. In this era, alternative energy source like shale oil have entered the market to compete with oil. Thus, a competitive oil price benefits global economy. Oil tycoon will just reduce their operations. Economy should have sustainable oil price (low).
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:28
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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3 Critical Components (My version)
When oil price is lower, shipping volume is more likely to increase. [Economic Theory- cheaper freight rate] In this era, shipping lines build alliance to increase network & facilities shared. Price war are avoided in shipping. [Maritime studies] Component for NOL: - Price of Bunker (Oil)- The lower it is, the better: *Major Factor to profitability margin - Restructuring & Cost Saving - Facilities, Manpower & Inventories Management
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:11
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Oil Related Updates
OPEC seemed to be letting non-OPEC countries resolve the market surplus and surprised the industry by not scheduling another meeting until June 5. Remark: I believe oil price will continue declining & not recover until June to July period. Many sectors (Air & Shipping) are likely to benefits from -50% oil price only oil price fall till $50. www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/2014/12/01/904984b2-7971-11e4-9a27-6fdbc612bff8_story.html |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:08
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3 critical components for NOL to increase their operation margin, shipping volume, container vessel chartered rate and fuel oil bunkering price. If low oil price create economic crisis, shipping volume will be reduced, price war will come in, even with low fuel oil bunkering price, NOL also hardly to be profitable. |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 13:03
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If oil price fall to below 50 dollars, it will burst a lot of oil & gas companies which are highly debted and cause another 2008 crisis. 1988 oil crisis will repeat again.  do your own due diligent to know  what happen in 1988 when oil price crash from 40 to 10 dollar.
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 12:58
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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New Updates @ 2 Nov
Oil price may fall to $50 by next year, which made companies dependent on Oil profitable. If Oil price falls to $50, impact of shipping revival (uprise to profitability) next year will be great. mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/billionaire-shale-pioneer-says-drilling-will-slow.html
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 12:54
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To me, this is absolutely a wrong statement. US use shale gas for heating and electric generation. Shifting oil to shale gas for car are at extremely slow space due to the investment in facility. Shale gas attack coal and replace coal for electric generation from 50% down to today 40% and force US become a coal export country to export coal to europe which cause global coal over supply. When gas price was 9 to 12 dollar before 2008 crisis, nearly 2000 on shore drilling rigs drill for shale gas and 400 rigs to drill shale oil. After gas price collapse to 2 dollar in 2012 now is 4 dollar, the figure change to 2000 on shore drilling rigs drill for shale oil and 400 rigs drill for shale gas to maintain shale gas production (due to shale gas reserve issue, shales drilling has to be running continually to maintain same production.) since  the shift of drilling rigs from shale gas to shale oil from 2011, the shale oil production pipelines come online started from 2012 and increase rapidly in 2013 and 2014 and expect a peak in 2015. extra 4mio barrel dailly  production was increased since 2011 and make US to become world no.1 oil production in 2015 with 10Mio barrel dailly production exceed Russia and Saudi traditional oil production country. Shale oil reserve is less and horizontal drilling is using, therefore high production rate but short production life. Saudi is doing the right thing to stop shale oil drilling which are highly debted. But the supply will last at least 1 year time to wait till existing shale oil production is dry out and new drilling  is slow down  due to less investment. Understand the story, understand the situation and make the right bet.
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Angkukueh
Member |
02-Dec-2014 12:26
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Hi All The reason for oil falling falling is because there is a strategic shift of demand from oil to shale gas. over the last 5-10 years the Americans have been exploring the shale gas and it is now coming on stream. This is good news for NOL. Regards Angkukueh      
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earlybird14
Supreme |
02-Dec-2014 11:49
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Quite a lot of fund managers short covering their oil price position last night. This round downturn shall be stopped. The earth is stepping to another energy consumption peak period for winters at north and summers at south. So, highly likely oil price will stay between 67 to 72 level till early next year the crude oil storage level. Oil price unlikely cross 80 dollar in 3 month times unless any middle east countries go riot and disturb 2Mio Barrel per day production. When people talking about shale oil or oil sand expensive, they are condering the cost from exploration till production. Majority shale oil are in production and the extraction cost is below present oil price  level. Therefore, the oil production will not be reduced but will be increased since more pipeline are ready to produce shale oil. Current price will only stop new shale oil and offshore project in short term. So NOL and SIA will benefit from low oil price. However market is fear those energy companies with high debt go Bankrupt. In SGX, Vallianz, Swiber, Ezra, Emas, Pacific Radiance, POSH, Swissco holding, Mermaid Maritime, Otto Marine, Ezion and Kreuz  are all over expending and fully loaded with debt for new vessels. If they go BK, just in SIngapore, a lot of people will be jobless. Recently Hallin offshore has declared shut down. So more will come, if this really happen, NOL and SIA will not benefit too.
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ElvisBoo
Member |
02-Dec-2014 11:23
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Oil price increase, my holdings value decrease. :( Should I set SL? I think there will be further decrease in the share price .
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Heero78
Veteran |
02-Dec-2014 11:14
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bro, will the oil price rise again today?? wat do u think?
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MerzMerz
Senior |
02-Dec-2014 10:30
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I really like your prediction... My average is 1.2, but I do not want to wait so long to break even or dread thinking profit with this counter. So to ride on ur prediction, I will go buy more to lower my average.
So the calling now is BUY! BUY! BUY!
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
01-Dec-2014 23:29
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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Edited typo error:
10 Nov- I predicted combined Value of NOL will rise above my NOL prediction ($1.065) within 3 years - amended to 2 years @ 1 Dec. * Reduced from 3 years to max 2 years (@ 1 Dec)- (10 Nov 2014- 10 Nov 2016). ● Reputation Bet to FundamentalHero & Kyoto2008 's queries- I will retreat from sharejunction forever if prediction do not come true. 26 Nov b4 opening- I indicate the song power had begun. 26 Nov- NOL moved up strongly & closed @ $0.81. I indicate that bits & bits of song lyrics will be revealed. 1 Dec- closed @ 0.84. I foresee rise till $0.87/more within 9 days (12 Dec). Song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMkRmH8dpgw&list=FLIGZIWveB2xf_-PhUBfo0Mg&index= |
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MetalTrader3
Supreme |
01-Dec-2014 23:05
Yells: "Let Your Ignorance Be Shown Tommorrow! ~ PredictorX" |
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10 Nov- I predicted combined Value of NOL will rise above my NOL prediction ($1.065) within 2 years. (10 Nov 2014- 10 Nov 2016).
* Reduced from 3 years to max 2 years (@ 1 Nov) ● Reputation Bet to FundamentalHero & Kyoto2008 's queries- I will retreat from sharejunction forever if prediction do not come true. 26 Nov b4 opening- I indicate the song power had begun. 26 Nov- NOL moved up strongly & closed @ $0.81. I indicate that bits & bits of song lyrics will be revealed. 1 Dec- closed @ 0.84. I foresee rise till $0.87/more within 9 days (12 Dec). Song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMkRmH8dpgw&list=FLIGZIWveB2xf_-PhUBfo0Mg&index= |
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