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NOL
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Lucky03
Elite |
14-Aug-2014 19:54
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Demand increase outstripping supply growth in container shipping
By Marcus Hand from Singapore Bimco sees a brighter outlook for the container shipping with demand growth now outstripping supply growth, but also warns that ?serious overcapacity remains?. In Bimco chief shipping analyst Peter Sand?s latest report on the container shipping market he noted that the demand side continues to improve on a global scale. ?Demand-side growth is outstripping supply-side growth now, which is something that improves the fundamental balance in the market. This difference is 1-2%, not a landslide change from one day to the next, but a most welcome move in the right direction,? Sand said. On the Asia ? Europe trade an improvement has been seen in spot rates with the average for January ? August 2014 at $1,281 per teu some 19.5% higher than the same period in 2013. However, on the transpacific Asia ? US West Coast trade rates have fallen 14% over the same period. With the container trade now into its peak season Sand noted it was ?off to a good start? on key trades from Asia. ?On 1 August, freight rates went higher, as supply matched the demand situation well. Bimco expects the spot freight rates to resist last year?s constant slide from early August to end-October on Far East to Europe,? he said. Despite deploying 41 new ultra-large containerships on the tradelane this year and the number of idle vessels at a three-year low, rates are back above the breakeven point. However, looking at the Asia - US West Coast and US East Coast trades the report noted that they ?seem exposed to a gradual deterioration in freight rates as the peak season passes?. Concluding though Sand said that despite the positives ?serious overcapacity remains?. Published inAmericas, Asia, Europe, Containers © Copyright 2014 Seatrade Communications Limited. Replication or redistribution in whole or in part is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Seatrade Communications Limited.
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 19:47
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That said, I am still optimistic about the future of NOL. However, that does not mean that I should not make short-term adjustments to my portfolio as economic and geo-political factors change. It seems like some bros here are averse to these short-term adjustments and the expression of my view, although I  reiterated my optimisim of the future of NOL. |
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 19:40
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You have limited understanding of the current situation. World War 2 was fought with weapons which increased government spending and this had a positive spillover effect on the rest of the economy. The Ukraine war is fought with economic sanctions from the EU which will dampen rather than boost the economy. Spend more time reading on it!  
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 19:36
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True. However, if Russia invades Ukraine, western countries will step up tougher sanctions on Russia. Retaliation from Russia aside, these sanctions will also hurt EU. Given that EU is the largest trading bloc in the world where the combined GDP is high than that of the US, it will have a spillover effect on the rest of the world. What do you think? Are you aware that the sanctions imposed on Russia by EU thus far have already started hurting EU?
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spore1
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14-Aug-2014 19:30
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very strong breakout today and closed well at 96 cents + high vol. More likely to cross over 97.5 cents and head higher to 99 - $1.00 soon
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danger
Supreme |
14-Aug-2014 19:27
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WARREN BUFFETT ADVICE ON UKRAINE " The last thing you dont  want to do is hold money during a war" .  " UKRAINE WILL NOT STOP MY STOCK BUYING" ....   What of the potential threat of World War III or a return to the Cold War, countered CNBC' s Becky Quick? Buffett responded: &ldquo If you tell me all of that' s going to happen, I will still be buying the stock. You' re going to invest your money in something over time. The one thing you can be quite sure of is if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down - that' s happened in virtually every war that I' m aware of. The last thing you' d want to do is hold money during a war.&rdquo Buffett said even if he knew a big war was unavoidable, " I will still be buying stock During World War II the stock market advanced. The stock market is going to advance over time."  
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Lucky03
Elite |
14-Aug-2014 19:15
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NOL closed 0.96 to break above its 50d MA which it last crossed about 3 mths ago. If it breaks above 0.98, it will have recapture its 100d MA which is potentially a key turning point. It usually will experience a spike up whenever it successfully crossed above its 100d MA. Previous spike up has been in the range of 7c-20c but it dropped thereafter due to negative sentiment in overall shipping industry and depressed freight rate. The sentiment may be slightly less gloomy compared to 6 mths back when N. America was suffering from severed and prolonged winter. Geo-political risk aside, there is a better chance of sustainable turnaround this time. We will see if NOL can rise above 0.98 over next few days.
As for geo-political risk, chances is that it will be confined to Ukraine as there is no serious political agenda for distraction inside Russia to justify escalation of the conflict to a world war. |
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:59
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http://mashable.com/2014/08/13/russian-convoy-aid-ukraine/ |
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:57
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You may have spent lots of time analysing the shipping industry. How much time have you spent analysing the geo-political factors in Ukraine? Would you like to share your view on the ' aid convoy' ?
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:54
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What do you think is the obejctive of sending the ' aid convoy' ?
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:51
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agree
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phileasx
Member |
14-Aug-2014 16:47
Yells: "The market and your trades and positions are all linked!" |
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that' s very good buying and selling points already based on recent market movements.. today the price is giving optimistic signal. we will see if turnaround is coming.
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:35
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I am optimistic about NOL. That is the difference.
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:25
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You don' t even know what you are talking about.
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:23
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We will discuss this in one to two weeks' time.
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danger
Supreme |
14-Aug-2014 16:14
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Ukraine news had been there for months already ... way before NOL was trading at 94c level LONG TERM HOLDERS GONE ?
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danger
Supreme |
14-Aug-2014 16:10
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hardcore NOL forumer > COUNTER  .. took his chance to cut and took whattever he have from NOL already . What long term or Ukraine ... no such thing Got money or little loss run first Left lucky03 to endure . |
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Lucky03
Elite |
14-Aug-2014 16:05
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You are beginning to sound like earlybitd.
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williamyeo
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 16:02
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船 开 了 |
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counter
Veteran |
14-Aug-2014 15:21
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My prediction is that Russia is planing on having the convoy of 280 trucks being attacked, either by the Ukrainian forces or the pro-Russia separatists on purpose, and you can guess what will come next. |
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