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NOL
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Aug-2014 23:41
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We talked so much on NOL ! Fleet renewal, cost cutting, bonds financing, restructuring, G6 alliance, potential M&A and privatization, capacity management, return of more expensive chartered ships, reduction of back haul, etc etc. For some reasons, you brushed them all aside and focus only on negativity which are true but not insurmountable just like the cost an profitability which are also not impossible to resolve and succeed.
There is this guy X-Factor at PuntersGallery, he only has one statement all the time - Nothing but Losses and 'happily' posting closing price of NOL whenever it dropped but stayed away when NOL is doing better than market. You are still highlighting some valid points but stay away from the other facts and development including market conditions and macro picture. How can we not consider these factors as NOL is a global enterprise and their business has much to do with what is happening around the world. Take Hapag report below for example, looks like it may not be able to look at NOL until earliest Q4 and only if it can come up with something drastic in terms of financing support. Perhaps QE from Euro. Hapag-Lloyd expects lower operating result for 2014 as freight rates drop By Gary Howard from London Hapag-Lloyd slumped to a EUR173.3m ($231.5m) loss for the first half of 2014 as low box rates took their toll, and it does not expect things to get better for the year as whole The first half loss was more than double the EUR72.7m it lost in the first half of 2013. In the second quarter Hapag-Lloyd lost EUR54.2m compared to a EUR20.9m profit in the same period of 2013. Revenues for the first half were down slightly at EUR3.21bn compared to EUR3.36bn. The drop in revenues was reflected in the average freight rate in the first half of $1,424 per teu, a 6.4% drop on 1H 2013's $1,522 per teu. Announced freight rate increases failed to take hold due to pressure from competition, and the company suffered from an unfavourable change in the euro/dollar exchange rate. The company's total vessel count was identical at the end of the first half this year and last at 154 ships, but aggregate capacity rose 6% to 777,000 teu. The increase in capacity is owing to Hapag-Lloyd employing ten new 'Hamburg Express' class 13,200 teu ships within the first half. Fresh financing for ships and containers pushed the company's net debt up to EUR2.6bn. Hapag-Lloyd forecasts a high risk of an overall reduction in the freight rate for 2014, reversing the assessment in its 2013 annual report. The underlying cause of the problem is a growth in the container fleet that continues to outpace demand growth from global trade, and a low idle fleet. Overall, Hapag-Lloyd expects its operating result for the year to decrease from the EUR67m it made 2013 the overall loss for the group last year was EUR97.4m. The company also faces substantial costs in 2014 should the integration of Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores' (CSAV) container operations go ahead as planned. The merger is progressing well through regulatory approvals and Hapag-Lloyd's board expects the deal to close in the fourth quarter. Published inAmericas, Europe, Containers, Finance & Insurance
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earlybird14
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 23:31
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Risk risk risk. Risk are there. Some brokers has mentioned the same that I mentioned before. debt debt debt. Something that cannot be ignored at all. No point ignore it now and it become your investment poison in the future. kiv kiv kiv. No harm to be kiv since present situation will not push nol over 1 dollar which imply who vested now upside limitation is narrow but down side risk is huge, spend sometimes on other stock in sgx, you will find other stock is more worth for you to parked your hard earned money in.   |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 23:26
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I have no concern. Nol holders shall bear in mind. Remember I don' t short or vest nol. You don' t need this info, doesn' t mean other don' t need. all the best to your holding, don' t over paint the picture on the recent recovery figure. 20% more New container vessels are still flooding to the market in next 2 years which doesn' t include new orders. When other making profit nol making loss. Nol operational structure is having a big problem. Don' t talk so much about the market, talk more about nol, talk more about how nol can be better and turnover. your posting focus too less on nol herself.  The shipping market can be better and better but doesn' t nol can be better. The 3G and 4g coverage are bigger and bigger worldwide. Doesn' t mean Nokia and blackberry who are the pionneer of smartphone dominate the smart phone market. Samsung who dominated the current market doesn' t mean she will dominate forever. operation, operation, talk more on nol operation in present container shipping market. Focus on this and convince me and other nol can be better.
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Aug-2014 22:38
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The question is whether NOL can refinance its loan, secured or otherwise through market instruments other than issuing rights and of course, privatization remains a very real option still. I don't see why NOL will not be able to refinance its outstanding loans, be it due in 12
or 24 mths. Your bigger concern is whether NOL needs more cash on top of these outstanding loans.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 22:00
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Yes. You are right. But go and study more what will happen if unsecured loan is not secured before expired. Nol need cash, but their operation can' t profit and turn profit to cash.             
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Aug-2014 21:30
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Which company has no loans ? Not like they borrowed from Ah Long. Having Temasek as its largest single shareholder has its advantage as it helps them to secure lower interest bonds. NOL should have no problem rolling over as long as they can at least generate positive operating cash to service finance expenses. Watch the operating cash flow and expecting it to pare down its gearing going forward.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 20:13
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Someone has waited 3 years here. All the best to those want to wait.
Never forget the 1.2 billion unsecured loan, 800million in 12 month, 400mil in 24 months
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famouspinky
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 17:55
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Good things must wait
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earlybird14
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 17:32
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NOL will disappoint you all again and again. 3 month to wait for next result, enjoy your waiting. |
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danger
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 14:41
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where is NOL veteran forumer counter ? |
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sgng123
Supreme |
12-Aug-2014 14:00
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problem with the slowpace of progress in NOL restructuring is the same as trying to change things in SAF. They are too glued to the old way of doing things that when asked to changes, it become ver ydifficult and take longer to do it. In ship cases it is the american mindset that are slowing things down, american mindset is when thing not broken don fix it is very firmly entrenched. So when management want to reform their rank and file , they would need more time to adapt compared to asian shipping line the changes is immediately no lag time for them to adapt, order given and it would be followed through. But NOL is changing but slowly, the quarter cost saving would slowly returned ship to breakeven in 3Q then following cost saving = profit made. The time to go in is when ship finally breakeven and following quarters cost saving would amount to profit, that is the cue. Whether APL can capture volume is all dependent on their customers need, what is refelcted in JOC is the general view of the container cargo might not indicate NOL would get more volume flowing thorough. So better stick to the cost saving plan is more secure and the maybe pray peak session really come and boost the freight rate. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Aug-2014 08:50
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If APL can't capture the market shares in the peak season, they ought to drop the 'A' from APL !
August US container imports could set record Corianne Egan, Associate Editor | Aug 11, 2014 4:38PM EDT U.S. container imports could hit an all-time record in August, as July data shows container numbers soared year-over-year, according to the National Retail Federation. The NRF released a statement today in conjunction with the latest Global Port Tracker report, noting that retailers have been stocking up on holiday merchandise early in order to sidestep any potential slowdowns as U.S. West Coast labor negotiations continue without a new contract in place. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association have been negotiating since May, but have gone without a contract since the last one expired on July 1. ?Retailers are making sure they are stocked up so shoppers won?t be affected regardless of what happens at the ports,? NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a press release. ?The negotiations appear to be going well but each week that goes by makes the situation more critical as the holiday season approaches.? July?s total containerized imports were 1.7 million TEUs, 5.8 percent higher than June?s total and nearly 5 percent higher year-over-year. Full-size chart The NRF said import volumes for retail merchandise are on pace to total 1.54 million containers in August, higher than July?s merchandise total of 1.53 million containers. Preliminary data from PIERS, the data division of JOC Group, showed July?s total containerized imports at 1.7 million TEUs, 5.8 percent higher than June?s total and nearly 5 percent higher year-over-year. Peak season is hard to pinpoint while it is happening, simply because data comes out weeks and months after the fact. However, JOC Economist Mario Moreno predicted the peak of this year?s import season in the U.S. would come in July. Volume surges to both U.S. East Coast and West Coast ports have supported higher spot rates in recent weeks. Track container traffic through U.S., European and Chinese ports on the Port Volumes Market Data Dashboard. Preliminary PIERS data shows the Port of Los Angeles? traffic was down 1 percent year-over-year in July at 360,564 TEUs. Most other major U.S. ports saw volume jump year-over-year. Imports through Long Beach rose 7 percent in July to 325,203, while NY-NJ saw 6 percent growth to 269,494 TEUs. The Port of Savannah experienced the largest year-over-year increase, with containerized imports of 122,601 TEUs, 30 percent higher than July 2013. The PMA and the ILWU have been at the table since mid-May, but have recently taken several breaks from negotiations so the ILWU can negotiate with grain handlers in the Pacific Northwest. While there is still no contract in place, there have been no major disruptions at West Coast ports so far, only minor disruptions tied to the Teamsters, a brief skirmish at the Trapac terminal in Los Angeles and a local jurisdictional dispute in Portland, Oregon. The NRF said it is forecasting a total of of 17.1 million 20-foot containers of retail merchandise for the year, 5.2 percent higher than the federation?s 2013 totals. Import volume at ports covered by the Global Port Tracker report, produced together with Hackett Associates, totaled 8.3 million TEUs in the first half of 2014, up 6.9 percent over last year. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the increases in volume reflect both improvements in the economy and retailers importing merchandise early because of the contract negotiations. ?U.S. GDP has increased in 11 out of the last 12 quarters, confirming that we are in a sustained period of expansion,? Hackett said. ?A significant portion of the strong upswing in imports has been due to the labor negotiations, with importers moving up shipments just in case.? The Global Port Tracker report covers containerized imports at the U.S. ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle,Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Houston. Contact Corianne Egan at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @CEgan_JOC. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Aug-2014 07:31
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The study below have credit to NOL for its lead in cutting cost over OOCL however, it has much to catch up in generating higher volume which is why OOCL can deliver profits. Hopefully the peak season and the ongoing recovery in overall volume and global shipments will allow NOL to return to profit even if they are not as good in securing new opportunities.
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Lucky03
Elite |
12-Aug-2014 00:16
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One shipping line is based in Singapore and the other in Hong Kong, but the interim results of APL and OOCL have revealed the importance of managing costs in the current weak freight rate environment, and how boosting container volume with high ship utilization is crucial in the search for profitability.
Profitability remained elusive for the parent of APL, Singapore?s NOL Group, as it posted a $54 million loss in the second quarter, while Orient Overseas (International) Ltd, the parent of OOCL, extended its profitable run with a first-half net profit of $181 million. But when it comes to cutting costs, APL takes the lead. The carrier managed to save $195 million in the first half, with $115 million in savings during the second quarter alone. By almost turning cost savings into a revenue stream, APL was able to improve its core earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by 29 percent in the second quarter, reducing its losses to $29 million. OOCL managed to bring its costs down by 8 percent in the first half, but as with APL, most of the savings were achieved through a drop in the price of bunker fuel. The average price per ton of fuel oil fell 5 percent in the first half, with OOCL reporting that the total bunker consumption per TEU dropped by 11 percent. While the carriers have no control over the fuel price, it is in fuel consumption that dividends can be found. More than 20 percent of the lines? operating costs are from bunkers and by operating newer and more fuel efficient vessels and better managing capacity, OOCL knocked 8 percent off its bunker costs in the first half. APL cut its fuel costs by 11 percent in the second quarter. APL has added 34 new vessels to its fleet since 2012, with 10 of them having a capacity of 14,000 TEUs. OOCL had taken delivery of 12 ships since 2013, two of 13,000-TEU capacity that were delivered in the first half of this year, and will receive four 8,888-TEU ships in 2015. ?Vessels are more efficient and management has focused efforts on managing the capacity,? said Alan Tung, acting chief financial officer of Orient Overseas (International) Ltd., the parent of OOCL. ?Fuel consumption per container unit is coming down. New and improved hardware, both newbuilds and retrofitted vessels, is reducing consumption. We are encouraged as the savings lead to better margins,? he said. Ken Glenn, APL president, said the more efficient fleet would play an important role in keeping the cost per 20-foot container down. ?Now the fleet renewal is completed, we are continuing to focus on managing the capacity,? he said. Vessel utilization is another key area, and both carriers reported strong load factors. OOCL maintained load factors on the trans-Pacific of just over 90 percent with Asia-Europe around 95 percent. On its main headhaul trades, APL achieved first half utilization of 95 percent. Closely tied to load factors is volume, and although APL recorded a 6 percent drop in the number of containers it carried in the first half, most of that was in the low yield backhaul and Asia-Middle East routes. But the weak freight rates revealed the importance of keeping container volume in positive territory. APL saw revenue per TEU fall as the drop in volume combined with poor rates to drag down its margins. By contrast, OOCL managed to increase its volume by 10 percent across three of its four major trades. Volume was up 6.3 percent on the trans-Pacific, almost 16 percent on Asia-Europe and 11.7 percent in intra-Asia. Only the trans-Atlantic, its smallest trade, showed a slight drop in liftings in the first half. The increased volume allowed OOCL to increase its revenue 4.3 percent, which gave the carrier some protection from the uninspiring freight rates that contributed to revenue per TEU falling 5.3 percent. With China?s July trade figures showing continued strength in exports, there is some optimism that freight rates will strengthen during the peak season, but it is not expected to last. Supply and demand are still the main drivers of rates, and the container shipping industry will be stuck with overcapacity for at least another two years. Then there is the effect high fuel prices have on the industry. While announcing OOIL?s first-half results, chairman C.C. Tung said unless bunker prices declined to a ?more reasonable level,? the drive for fuel efficiency would translate into continuing newbuilding projects. ?As a result, the challenge of overcapacity will likely persist over the short to medium term,? he said. The struggle for profitability will depend on the carriers? ability to manage this glut of capacity while finding creative new ways to cut costs without compromising service quality. Contact Greg Knowler at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 22:05
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Another clear evidence of recovery in global trade. At this rate, demand may soon catch up with supply !
PUBLISHED AUGUST 11, 2014 Growth strong in UK, slips in Japan, eurozone on track: OECD PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE [PARIS] Leading economies are showing a steady growth trend overall, although Britain is doing particularly well and Japan and Germany are showing signs of losing pace, the OECD said on Monday. The eurozone as a whole, and France, are on a stable growth path, the latest OECD data showed, contrasting with several recent indicators suggesting that France is lagging in the 18-member single-currency zone. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, grouping 34 advanced democracies, said that its index of leading indicators for "the United States and Canada also continue to point to stable growth momentum." This was also the case for Britain, a member of the European Union but not of the eurozone, "where growth momentum remains above-trend rates," the OECD's monthly index showed. There were signs of a blip in Japanese growth, but this "probably reflects one-off factors," the OECD said.
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 21:59
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The strongest evidence confirming firm recovery of containerships and more should be expected. Even though NOL may be slow to turn around, the macro development and growth should pull it along. Better show us the result in Q3 !!!
Market recovery in US, Europe gives Asia?s ports solid first half Greg Knowler, Senior Asia Editor | Aug 10, 2014 2:33PM EDT Asia?s ports reported strengthening of container throughput in the first half as the economic recovery of the U.S. and Europe drove up consumer spending and new export orders flooded into Chinese factories. Asia-to-Europe container volumes were up almost 8 percent in the first six months, according to Container Trades Statistics, versus virtually no growth during the same period in 2013, and PIERS, the data division of JOC Group Inc., reported Asia-to-North America volumes were up 4.7 percent year-to-date through June, versus only 1.5 percent growth in the same period in 2013. More containerized exports out of Asia mean higher throughput at the region?s ports, so the increasing demand from rebounding economies is being spread around, as witnessed by first half results at some port operators. The world?s largest container terminal operator, Singapore-listed Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, reported a 16 percent rise in first-half net profit on the back of improved U.S. and European cargo and greater transshipment volume. Throughput at its Hong Kong terminals ? HIT, Cosco-HIT and ACT ? grew 7 percent to 6.22 million 20-foot containers, largely a result of the acquisition of ACT in March last year, while terminals at Yantian International Container Terminal (YICT) hit 5.18 million TEUs between January and June, a year-over-year increase of 5 percent. Westports Holdings, the largest operator in Malaysia?s Port Klang, turned in an impressive first-half performance, with throughput rising 13 percent year-over-year and strong growth across all trade lanes. The port operator handled 4.02 million 20-foot containers between January and June, with the growth led by transshipment containers, whose throughput grew by 14 percent. Malaysia?s southern port of Tanjung Pelepas saw its first-half container throughput rise by 7 percent year-over-year. The main terminals at South Korea?s Busan Port handled a total of 9.115 million 20-foot containers in the first half of the year, an increase of 3.5 percent that was largely due to growing transshipment volume through Busan New Port. Of the first-half total, Busan New Port handled 5.9 million TEUs, up almost 10 percent, while Busan North Port processed 3.19 million TEUs, down 6.7 percent from last year. China?s factory output and total new orders continued to grow, improving the operating conditions of mainland manufacturers. While this is good news for the second half, the first half performance of China?s top export ports improved on the back of this increasing foreign trade. Container throughput at the top eight ports in China was up by 6 percent in the first half year-over-year, hitting 69.15 million 20-foot containers. A good first quarter had the year off to a solid start, and although growth slid to 3 percent in May, it rebounded strongly in June with an 8 percent rise. Shanghai remained the busiest port in China, handling 17.24 million TEUs in the first half, up 5 percent over the first six months of 2013. The port of Ningbo continued its double-digit growth in throughput, registering a 13 percent increase in the year to date over the same period last year with 9.55 million boxes crossing its wharves. Ningbo saw container volumes soar by 20 percent in April, 15 percent in May and 16 percent in June, all that after a strong first half. By region, China?s Yangtze River Delta ports topped the growth list with a throughput of 26.38 million TEUs, an 8 percent year-over-year increase in the first half, followed by the Pearl River Delta ports, which recorded a 3 percent rosein throughput to 20.38 million TEUs. The Pearl River Delta was dragged down by the western Shenzhen ports of Shekou, Chiwan and Dachan Bay, which continue to lose market share to the eastern Shenzhen terminals at Yantian. Bohai Rim ports handled 19.88 million 20-foot containers in the first half, registering 5 percent growth. Now the solid first half is in the bank, Asian ports are looking ahead to the peak season and will be encouraged by the high ship utilization rates on the major east-west trades and continuing rises in China?s factory output in July. Export growth surged in July, with overseas-bound shipments growing by 14.5 percent year-over-year and beating all estimates. Contact Greg Knowler at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 20:21
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I think that's 1 Big Q that all of us are asking and getting impatient too. It may be true that APL being based in North America has challenges when they are left to run their own ships by territory. NOL underwent some restructuring by functional rather than geographical late last year. On hindsight, they should have carries out more and faster and more aggressive. They were water under the bridge. Going forward, we want to see them yielding results as early as next quarter !
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famouspinky
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 20:21
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It will be
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
11-Aug-2014 20:02
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Qn is why is NOL lagging behind others in turning the ship around.  By the time it does, maybe others will be out of sight.
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Lucky03
Elite |
11-Aug-2014 19:31
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The 1 lot sales were done by UBS and CSFB throughout the day. Seems someone intends to hold down the price of NOL. We will have to see if anything pans out .... | ||||
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