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Lucky03 Elite	10-Aug-2014 12:11        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Yes. And also didn't anticipate one time cost in Q2 associated with the setup to support G6 alliance that will not be repeated. Thought the G6 alliance is already in operation for some times. Guess that also explains why the fleet reliability of G6 is still far from satisfactory as it is still in ramp up stage. At least, NOL is already returning the more expensive chartered ones. I believe some analysts are revising down the forecast for FY14 and may expect NOL to be profitable in FY15. However, the fact that some surprisingly up the TP implies that they may see that NOL may have seen its worst and near to balance cost efficiency with the low freight rate. Any bonus of recovery of freight rate albeit slowly, improvement in cargo volume due to improved world economy and further cost reduction as more chartered ships being returned and full impact of cost efficiency from G6 alliance and utilization of the new and more fuel efficient ships are being felt factored in.
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sgng123 Supreme	10-Aug-2014 10:03        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	We all made same mistake thinking ships delivered would be deployed immediately but this is not the case for NOL. It look like they are doing the switch over in steps instead of 1 shot changing the whole fleet. The slot cost reduction would be split over a few quarters right up to 3Q2015. At least got like 3-4 round ofcost saving approx 80-150mil every quarter. if demand pick up then we would see profit returned and maybe a better and more sustainable profit end 2015.
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spore1 Supreme	09-Aug-2014 12:49        spore1 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think the worst is over reversing anytime $1.00 then $1.05 Lucky03      ( Date: 09-Aug-2014 10:11) Posted: Pick your analyst. It seems most analysts are more turning more positive for 2nd half but it may not be significant to turnaround FY14 with a profit. Good that expectation is low so that surprise on the upside is imminent ? Share price will reflect perceived values based on future prospect. 1. UOBKH Neptune Orient Lines 2Q14: Recorded losses within expectations. (NOL SP/BUY/S$0.955/Target: S$1.17) FY14F PE (x): nm FY15F PE (x): 14.5 NOL announced a net loss of S$54m in 2Q14. The 54% yoy increase in loss was primarily due to some one-off gains in 2Q13. Core loss before interest and tax narrowed by 52% yoy as a result of improved operating efficiency. We expect the cost savings will be maintained in 2H14 with the removal of some one-off costs in 2Q14 as well as returning of old chartered vessels. Along with an expected better market, we expect NOL to make profit in 2H14. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.17. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.17, based on 1.1x 2015F P/B. NOL is experiencing a fleet renewal and operating efficiency will be seen in due time. Despite losses being booked in 1H14, we expect NOL to make profit in 2H14 with much stronger freight rates. We revise down our earnings forecasts to a net loss of US$24m in 2014 compared with our previous forecast of a net profit of US$26m to reflect lowerthan- expected 1H14 freight rates. 2. Neptune Orient Lines: 2Q14 results continue to see red Neptune Orient Lines' (NOL) 2Q14 results continue to see red. Due to lower volume in Liner segment, NOL?s 2Q14 revenue declined 1% YoY to US$2.05b, which is 9.0% lower than our forecast. But operational cost efficiencies resulted in cost of sales decreasing by a correspondingly larger 2% to US$1.88b. Consequently, 2Q14 PATMI loss was 8.4% smaller than expected at US$53.7m. Liner?s core EBIT has nevertheless improved YoY by narrowing loss from US$41m to US$29m while Logistics? core EBIT increased from US$10m to US$14m. Management expects future competitiveness to come from: 1) sustained operational efficiency, 2) a more efficient fleet, and 3) leverage on G6 Alliance. However, we are of the view that overcapacity and depressed freight rates would continue to pressure NOL?s performance, and that cost-side measures alone would not result in a turnaround. Maintain SELL with FV estimate of S$0.90 (previous: S$0.92). (Yap Kim Leng) 3. Neptune Orient Lines - Cash generation improved (HOLD, TP SGD1.05, NOL SP, Shipping) - 2Q14 net loss of USD54m in line. - Cash generation improved significantly as core EBITDA doubled to USD78m. - Valuations not compelling given net gearing of 2.16x and FY15E ROE of 7%. TP raised to SGD1.05 (from SGD1) after rollover to 1.0x FY15E P/BV. Maintain HOLD. Derrick Heng, CFA (65) 6432 1446 [email protected] Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 15:55) Posted: Go and listen to the webcast analysts briefing - http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/jzk5koc2/?token=wdnxghjz7c9ls6tvjwvltef8nhvmsj5u2a7xxbeclg2cn4612374550 . A few points to note. It is obvious from the CEO's tone that there was a strong hint of disappointment when he commented they were close to profitable. He also emphasized that oversupply will 'limit recovery' of freight rate but much less volatile. The choice of word to note 'recovery'. No longer as negative phrases such as 'expected to stay low or even worst'. There was one time expense of corporate restructure that was shared at Q1 briefing as also start up cost for G6 alliance which is not expected to repeat. There was also cost due to port congestion. Cash flow actually improved from Q1 from $0.6b to $0.8b in Q2. Main drag on revenue and volume was the lower volume of back haul as NOL made a decision not to carry back 'negative cash' cargoes. There will be more ships to be returned in 2nd half and next year which will yield significant cost savings. Analysts' Q&A : 1. Cargo volume was strong leading to the end of Q2. I presume the trend will continue. Peak season volume and growth rate is quite good coming out of Asia to N. America and Europe. Rate increases see some successes since Aug 1 and looking promising. Asia Europe market growth of 8% is stronger than expected. 2. NOL Logistic is looking at M&A. 3. NOL is asked about cost savings going forward. CEO answered that cost impact of taking delivery of new ships and will be significant carrying forward. Same for returning of ships including 14 next year and efficiency of G6 alliance will see its impact too. He expected to achieve what they anticipated. There is lots of room to get more cost savings and he emphasized gearing to get back to profitability and far from liquidity stress and hope not to see deteriorating of gearing. 4. They are pleased with long haul Intra Asia trade and trade growth was up over 12%. Short haul intra asia trade is not doing as well and retiring of more ships will help. 5. NOL is not planning for any further investment in ships. 6. APL is expecting to focus on commodity to improve profitability. APL has increased market share in spot market for Transpacific market. 7. Utilization for back haul was low but yet APL walked away because the freight rate couldn't even cover variable costs so will have negative impact even if it can help to collect additional revenue. 8. NOL commented that they have taken all ships so no more major CAPEX in 2nd half. 9. Spot rate increases are positive and not insignificant but a bit too early to forecast if sustainable. This round of analyst briefing is longer than Q1. The above may offer some of the reasons why analysts revised up the TP. Generally, NOL answered more positively and reassuring of what may come for the 2nd half.
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Lucky03 Elite	09-Aug-2014 10:11        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Pick your analyst. It seems most analysts are more turning more positive for 2nd half but it may not be significant to turnaround FY14 with a profit. Good that expectation is low so that surprise on the upside is imminent ? Share price will reflect perceived values based on future prospect. 1. UOBKH Neptune Orient Lines 2Q14: Recorded losses within expectations. (NOL SP/BUY/S$0.955/Target: S$1.17) FY14F PE (x): nm FY15F PE (x): 14.5 NOL announced a net loss of S$54m in 2Q14. The 54% yoy increase in loss was primarily due to some one-off gains in 2Q13. Core loss before interest and tax narrowed by 52% yoy as a result of improved operating efficiency. We expect the cost savings will be maintained in 2H14 with the removal of some one-off costs in 2Q14 as well as returning of old chartered vessels. Along with an expected better market, we expect NOL to make profit in 2H14. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.17. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.17, based on 1.1x 2015F P/B. NOL is experiencing a fleet renewal and operating efficiency will be seen in due time. Despite losses being booked in 1H14, we expect NOL to make profit in 2H14 with much stronger freight rates. We revise down our earnings forecasts to a net loss of US$24m in 2014 compared with our previous forecast of a net profit of US$26m to reflect lowerthan- expected 1H14 freight rates. 2. Neptune Orient Lines: 2Q14 results continue to see red Neptune Orient Lines' (NOL) 2Q14 results continue to see red. Due to lower volume in Liner segment, NOL?s 2Q14 revenue declined 1% YoY to US$2.05b, which is 9.0% lower than our forecast. But operational cost efficiencies resulted in cost of sales decreasing by a correspondingly larger 2% to US$1.88b. Consequently, 2Q14 PATMI loss was 8.4% smaller than expected at US$53.7m. Liner?s core EBIT has nevertheless improved YoY by narrowing loss from US$41m to US$29m while Logistics? core EBIT increased from US$10m to US$14m. Management expects future competitiveness to come from: 1) sustained operational efficiency, 2) a more efficient fleet, and 3) leverage on G6 Alliance. However, we are of the view that overcapacity and depressed freight rates would continue to pressure NOL?s performance, and that cost-side measures alone would not result in a turnaround. Maintain SELL with FV estimate of S$0.90 (previous: S$0.92). (Yap Kim Leng) 3. Neptune Orient Lines - Cash generation improved (HOLD, TP SGD1.05, NOL SP, Shipping) - 2Q14 net loss of USD54m in line. - Cash generation improved significantly as core EBITDA doubled to USD78m. - Valuations not compelling given net gearing of 2.16x and FY15E ROE of 7%. TP raised to SGD1.05 (from SGD1) after rollover to 1.0x FY15E P/BV. Maintain HOLD. Derrick Heng, CFA (65) 6432 1446 [email protected] Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 15:55) Posted: Go and listen to the webcast analysts briefing - http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/jzk5koc2/?token=wdnxghjz7c9ls6tvjwvltef8nhvmsj5u2a7xxbeclg2cn4612374550 . A few points to note. It is obvious from the CEO's tone that there was a strong hint of disappointment when he commented they were close to profitable. He also emphasized that oversupply will 'limit recovery' of freight rate but much less volatile. The choice of word to note 'recovery'. No longer as negative phrases such as 'expected to stay low or even worst'. There was one time expense of corporate restructure that was shared at Q1 briefing as also start up cost for G6 alliance which is not expected to repeat. There was also cost due to port congestion. Cash flow actually improved from Q1 from $0.6b to $0.8b in Q2. Main drag on revenue and volume was the lower volume of back haul as NOL made a decision not to carry back 'negative cash' cargoes. There will be more ships to be returned in 2nd half and next year which will yield significant cost savings. Analysts' Q&A : 1. Cargo volume was strong leading to the end of Q2. I presume the trend will continue. Peak season volume and growth rate is quite good coming out of Asia to N. America and Europe. Rate increases see some successes since Aug 1 and looking promising. Asia Europe market growth of 8% is stronger than expected. 2. NOL Logistic is looking at M&A. 3. NOL is asked about cost savings going forward. CEO answered that cost impact of taking delivery of new ships and will be significant carrying forward. Same for returning of ships including 14 next year and efficiency of G6 alliance will see its impact too. He expected to achieve what they anticipated. There is lots of room to get more cost savings and he emphasized gearing to get back to profitability and far from liquidity stress and hope not to see deteriorating of gearing. 4. They are pleased with long haul Intra Asia trade and trade growth was up over 12%. Short haul intra asia trade is not doing as well and retiring of more ships will help. 5. NOL is not planning for any further investment in ships. 6. APL is expecting to focus on commodity to improve profitability. APL has increased market share in spot market for Transpacific market. 7. Utilization for back haul was low but yet APL walked away because the freight rate couldn't even cover variable costs so will have negative impact even if it can help to collect additional revenue. 8. NOL commented that they have taken all ships so no more major CAPEX in 2nd half. 9. Spot rate increases are positive and not insignificant but a bit too early to forecast if sustainable. This round of analyst briefing is longer than Q1. The above may offer some of the reasons why analysts revised up the TP. Generally, NOL answered more positively and reassuring of what may come for the 2nd half.
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enjoylife77 Veteran	09-Aug-2014 09:49        enjoylife77 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	From Maybank Kim Eng Neptune Orient Lines - Cash generation improved (HOLD, TP SGD1.05, NOL SP, Shipping)   -            2Q14 net loss of USD54m in line. -            Cash generation improved significantly as core EBITDA doubled to USD78m. -            Valuations not compelling given net gearing of 2.16x and FY15E ROE of 7%. TP raised to SGD1.05 (from SGD1) after rollover to 1.0x FY15E P/BV. Maintain HOLD.
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Lucky03 Elite	09-Aug-2014 09:25        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	When I invest in a stock (for mid term), I will make sure I stayed informed. It may take longer than expected but I'll look for evidence that continue to prove that my investment remains a right choice. When I did the same with Hankore, there were postings asking if I'm paid by Hankore, am I an employee or even if I could be David (the boss) in disguise ! It took slightly more than a year when Hankore jumped from about 0.3c to 0.75c before I called it a day and exited as I deemed it fair value and also I couldn't find new angle to justify my enthusiasm. Most of my postings on NOL is not shouting for anyone to follow suit or to stir up emotion or very strong personal opinion. I may be slightly biased as I'm definitely vested because as said, I continue to look for evidence to convince me that my choice of NOL investment is a right one and shared with the forum. Occasionally, I'll add in my opinion but took care not to be too extreme. RoundRound      ( Date: 07-Aug-2014 18:14) Posted: Do not really come to this thread as it is mainly used by 2 regulars, Lucky03 abd earlybird14, keep posting technical terms and news on and on. ....I can sleep through all of it. Without Temasek supporting, NOL would be non-existence today, I believe
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Lucky03 Elite	09-Aug-2014 09:06        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	danger, you are dangerous :) danger      ( Date: 07-Aug-2014 21:43) Posted: omg !!! tomorrow lau sai ??? net loss widen 55% !!!!!   panic dumping tomorrow ?
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Lucky03 Elite	09-Aug-2014 09:03        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	What's happening now and significant as compared to earlier 3 years is the growth in the major alliances and they are beginning to have positive impact to moderate the problem of imbalance of supply demand and offer much needed stability in freight rate and recover going forward. BIG carrier alliances will bring much-needed stability to supply and demand problems on east-west trades, according to London's Drewry Maritime Research. Friday, 08.Aug.2014, 22:01 (GMT) Alliances to bring stability sector, ease capacity trouble: Drewry BIG carrier alliances will bring much-needed stability to supply and demand problems on east-west trades, according to London's Drewry Maritime Research. Adjusting capacity to meet seasonal demand will become easier when four alliances are responsible for 98 per cent of capacity on the Asia-Europe trade from January, said the report. With containerships getting bigger, particularly on the Asia-Europe route, there is a trend to cancel individual sailings rather than whole services in winter. The bigger the alliance, the smoother the schedule disruption caused by such an omission, and the more alternative sailings there are to cater for roll-overs, said Drewry. But Drewry analysts warned that most exporters demand a steady supply of vessel capacity and cannot easily adjust production to meet the requirements of ocean carriers. It is of course illegal for consortia to manage capacity to avoid such situations, yet there is nothing to stop them from keeping an eye out for service cancellations or capacity upgrades among rivals. Drewry states that this can and almost certainly is happening today, meaning carriers are only likely to become better at fine-tuning capacity as the number of shipping lines continue to reduce.
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Lucky03 Elite	09-Aug-2014 08:52        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	BT PUBLISHED AUGUST 09, 2014 China trade surplus hits a record in July While the surplus tripled to US$47.3b from a year ago on the back of a 14.5% jump in exports, imports posted a surprise 1.6% fall MIXED RESULTS Export growth accelerated from June's gain of 7.2 per cent and beat expectations of 8.0 per cent. However imports, which had gained 5.5 per cent in June, failed to match the forecast of a 3 per cent rise. Beijing CHINA's monthly trade surplus leaped to US$47.3 billion in July, nearly tripling year-on-year, official data showed yesterday, as exports from the world's second-largest economy jumped while imports surprisingly declined. The figure is believed to be a record for any month. Exports increased 14.5 per cent year-on-year to US$212.9 billion, the General Administration of Customs announced, while imports decreased 1.6 per cent to US$165.6 billion.
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Lucky03 Elite	09-Aug-2014 01:35        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Amazing that there were only 15 lots reported on 8 Aug Daily Short Sell Report ave 0.944. The lowest that I can remember.
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sgng123 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 23:41        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	The amazing thing about ship is when everyone think it going to sink but it reverse course and move north, part of parcel of a high beta stock. Ship share price can move up eve nwhen it is making losses so don be surprised, those big players pushing it got advance forcast from their trade statistic/insider/computer model. They buy in before everyone does andwait for all t oget into show then later  dump their shit on retail players when time is good. The idea  is to not get caught when ship is trading at high tide, low tide buying is for holding till the big guys get in and push ship to attract retail players then u sell together in the bull market. Buy Low Sell High strategy always work but u need to have the gut to stomach paper losses ( huge) due to the high share movement of ship. Lucky03      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 17:12) Posted: I thought the 1000+ lots in the 0.935 buy q was a fake to lure retail to buy at 0.94 and it would be pulled out near closing when shortists would push NOL down hard taking advantage of the disappointing Q2 result. Well, it stayed there right till the end.
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Aug-2014 18:22        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	TradeWinds News NOL records Q2 loss Neptune Orient Line (NOL)'s net loss for the second quarter of 2014 climbed 55% to $54m from the same period of 2013, when the net loss was $35m. The Singaporean containership company attributed that figure to the decrease in liner revenue from lower volume. NOL Group also recorded a slight decrease in revenues by achieving $2.05bn during the second quarter compared to $2.06bn during 2013. However, the company managed to improve its core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), doubling it to $78m compared to last year's $39m. Ng Yat Chung, NOL group president and CEO, said: "The group put in an improved performance despite the persistent, difficult trading conditions. We have more to do, but both business units have continued to make gains in improving our cost and efficiencies." The containership owner also continues its cost-saving efforts. Within 2014, NOL's total savings are nearly $200m. According to the company's presentation, the liner company improved the fleet profile and capacity management. The group's capital expenditure has seen a decrease of 62%, from $764m to $287m. In particular, NOL spent $247m for vessels during the first half of 2014 while this amount for last year was $638m. However, during this quarter, the Singaporean company had three newbuildings delivered and eight chartered vessels returned. APL improves in second quarter APL, NOL's container shipping business with a 56-vessel fleet, made a 29% improvement in its second quarter core EBIT, recording a loss of $29m. Its core EBITDA this quarter stood at $61m, climbing 135% from a year ago. Cost of sales per feu went up by 3% year-on-year (YoY) due to a nation-wide trucking shortage in the US, port congestion issues in Southern California and empty equipment repositioning costs. APL also reported revenue of almost $1.7bn, a 2% YoY drop in spite of a 6% decline in volume due to strict capacity management. APL's president, Kenneth Glenn, said: "The improvement in our second quarter operating results is significant given that we saw reduced revenue and higher operating costs. We were able to achieve this through our continued focus on lowering fixed costs." "We have now taken delivery of all our newbuildings and are returning more of our less efficient and expensive chartered tonnage" he added. 07 August 2014, 11:49 GMT
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Aug-2014 17:12        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I thought the 1000+ lots in the 0.935 buy q was a fake to lure retail to buy at 0.94 and it would be pulled out near closing when shortists would push NOL down hard taking advantage of the disappointing Q2 result. Well, it stayed there right till the end.
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sgng123 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 16:58        sgng123 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	That is ship drama always drawing fire from both end of trade bull/bear. Today STI heavy losses drop by 1% but ship is just normally 1% drop, market expecting NOL 2Q to be losses so no big surprise and no big drop. Ship share rpice always move in advance of any actual physical financial result, so everyone just remember that and when ship move fast and furious that meant something is up and positive that we don know.Share price sluggish meant  economy still not so good and export still weak so share price weak. This is quite scary in a sense, lot of STI stock all at record high but economy in a slump, so when central bank finally decide to normalise rate and hike it , u gonna see blood shed every where till over priced stock is back to nromal level. Dangerous time to buy defensive stock, wait for the crash then u get to buy cheap cheap defensive stocks. In short NOL share price = economy bell weather ,  share price in sub dollar mode = recession economy.
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Lucky03 Elite	08-Aug-2014 15:55        Lucky03 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	Go and listen to the webcast analysts briefing - http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/jzk5koc2/?token=wdnxghjz7c9ls6tvjwvltef8nhvmsj5u2a7xxbeclg2cn4612374550 . A few points to note. It is obvious from the CEO's tone that there was a strong hint of disappointment when he commented they were close to profitable. He also emphasized that oversupply will 'limit recovery' of freight rate but much less volatile. The choice of word to note 'recovery'. No longer as negative phrases such as 'expected to stay low or even worst'. There was one time expense of corporate restructure that was shared at Q1 briefing as also start up cost for G6 alliance which is not expected to repeat. There was also cost due to port congestion. Cash flow actually improved from Q1 from $0.6b to $0.8b in Q2. Main drag on revenue and volume was the lower volume of back haul as NOL made a decision not to carry back 'negative cash' cargoes. There will be more ships to be returned in 2nd half and next year which will yield significant cost savings. Analysts' Q&A : 1. Cargo volume was strong leading to the end of Q2. I presume the trend will continue. Peak season volume and growth rate is quite good coming out of Asia to N. America and Europe. Rate increases see some successes since Aug 1 and looking promising. Asia Europe market growth of 8% is stronger than expected. 2. NOL Logistic is looking at M&A. 3. NOL is asked about cost savings going forward. CEO answered that cost impact of taking delivery of new ships and will be significant carrying forward. Same for returning of ships including 14 next year and efficiency of G6 alliance will see its impact too. He expected to achieve what they anticipated. There is lots of room to get more cost savings and he emphasized gearing to get back to profitability and far from liquidity stress and hope not to see deteriorating of gearing. 4. They are pleased with long haul Intra Asia trade and trade growth was up over 12%. Short haul intra asia trade is not doing as well and retiring of more ships will help. 5. NOL is not planning for any further investment in ships. 6. APL is expecting to focus on commodity to improve profitability. APL has increased market share in spot market for Transpacific market. 7. Utilization for back haul was low but yet APL walked away because the freight rate couldn't even cover variable costs so will have negative impact even if it can help to collect additional revenue. 8. NOL commented that they have taken all ships so no more major CAPEX in 2nd half. 9. Spot rate increases are positive and not insignificant but a bit too early to forecast if sustainable. This round of analyst briefing is longer than Q1. The above may offer some of the reasons why analysts revised up the TP. Generally, NOL answered more positively and reassuring of what may come for the 2nd half.
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 14:37        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Analysts salaries are from their clients who are their clients? not retailers, funds or richs. So their report stand where their clients stand at. Therefore, want to be successful in stock trading really have to rely on ourselves, their TP and research are only for reference. I don' t think NOL situation now is very bad, at least they managed to get more short term loan and extend their loan mature date to next year after June 2015. For short term players, NOL is safe in next 3 to 6 month. For long term players, NOL is definitely not a choice. 1 year later, situation may be as bad as what i said. Let' s see how. In this type of market, we only can say so. whole week in red. Trespasserx      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 14:17) Posted: Interestingly a lot of analysts.. Maybank, UBS actually up the TP from their previous projection despite what deemed as a horror show yesterday.. So why are the experts sharing a different views.. Maybe that explain also why the dip is like what will happen on a normal day to NOL when the sgx loses 30 plus points... I don't think the situation is as bad as what earlybird says.. But of cos it is not rosy roses ahead... Let see how it goes.. Maybe there still avenue to stock up actually..bcheers
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danger Supreme	08-Aug-2014 14:30        danger About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	FINISHED LIAO .. lucky sold off on rebound  from 0.935 that time
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Trespasserx Senior	08-Aug-2014 14:17        Trespasserx About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Interestingly a lot of analysts.. Maybank, UBS actually up the TP from their previous projection despite what deemed as a horror show yesterday.. So why are the experts sharing a different views.. Maybe that explain also why the dip is like what will happen on a normal day to NOL when the sgx loses 30 plus points... I don't think the situation is as bad as what earlybird says.. But of cos it is not rosy roses ahead... Let see how it goes.. Maybe there still avenue to stock up actually..bcheers
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Aug-2014 13:50        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	" where is the promised cut in slot cost for deploying fuel efficent ships in 2Q and what is the operational status of fleet currently delivered. All these data critical to boost investor confidence in NOL future profitabilty but not disclosed. " After 2012, the cost cutting is not justfiable and I doubt it but you still insist this till end of 2013. " Temasek investing US$4B in fleet renewal programme is not for those 100+ mil cost saving in returning charters and network optimising, it more for reducing the slot cost per FEU for the long haul in transpacifc and europe trade lane." Temasek didn' t invest 4billion for fleet renewable. NOL raised right issue in 2009, Temasek as a biggest shareholder, she said yes and NOL did it. All retailers or shareholders all subscribe the right. The money was for cash flow inprovement. The fleet renewal programme started in 2011 after the temporarily boom time in 2010. Temasek didn' t support any right issue for fleet renewal  but even forcing NOL to issue dividend after 2010 which made NOL lacking of cash and issue billion dollar senior note to increase NOL debt which result today 1.2billion unsecured debt which are going to expired in  2016 and 2017. Just treat NOL as  a company, NOL is not Temasek and Temasek is not so kind with their step son. " Guess maybe a merger deal might be in the making or privatisation deal soon same as what happen to SMRT and OLAM. " Do you read Malaysia airline news, Malaysia government want to privatise it? Do you think when will be the best time for Temasek to privatise it? Now? give market share price 94cents which is 2.44billion and Temasek is required to offer 1.2billion and bear the 7Billion debt. Or just wait and see if NOL can survive. If cannot survive, price crash 50% to 47cents and offer 1.22billion or 600million to privatise it. Just bear in mind, privatise a loss making and a huge profit company are totally 2 different situation. Privatise a huge profit company is buyer begging seller to sell, a higher price will be offered. Loss making is seller begging buyer to buy, lower price will be offered. last thing i noticed in 2Q the average revenue per FEU did not drop and it remain flat compared YoY, basically i feel that freight rate had bottomed out and soon it would recover with global recovering , might take a few quarters. Again, i saw these many many times from you. I don' t know why this made me boil and made me still contributing here. When you made this assumption, can you refer to other competitors performance, the Global GDP is still positive, US perform better, container shipping volume is increasing continually. We are facing a slow growing global economic instead of global economic recession. Do you think your assumption is valid or the below assupmtion that i provided is valid which was facing by Maersk when they move their giant container to their fleet 3 to 4 years ago? basically i feel that freight rate had bottomed out and soon it would recover with global recovering , might take a few quarters. You feel? the freight rate jump last week is due to the rate hiking from Maersk and MSC if you read the news, both of them want to hike rate in last month. They are the one controlling the freight rate, not this overcapacity container market. Basic theory, price of a good go up is not only  due to the demand of the good but also the supply condition of the good. If the overcapacity condition is not resolved, recovery is not possible. 20% new container capacity is going to add in in next 2 years, what make you think that the freight rate had bottomed out and will recover in next few quarters.  this rate hiking is just to fill their new capacity of container vessels. Once started to fill, the freight rate will drop again. Global economic is recovering and growing since 2009, it is not booming. Bear in mind, We are not facing any recession since 2009.   sgng123      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 11:20) Posted: That is the problem facing investors, where is the promised cut in slot cost for deploying fuel efficent ships in 2Q and what is the operational status of fleet currently delivered. All these data critical to boost investor confidence in NOL future profitabilty but not disclosed. Temasek investing US$4B in fleet renewal programme is not for those 100+ mil cost saving in returning charters and network optimising, it more for reducing the slot cost per FEU for the long haul in transpacifc and europe trade lane. Currently all the cost saving NOL mentioned in 1H14 mainly came from returned charters and network optimisation, nothing is mentioned about the slot cost reduction....... Guess maybe a merger deal might be in the making or privatisation deal soon same as what happen to SMRT and OLAM. NOL no longer need to be listed to draw private money to expand, they could tap on temasek resource and other source of funding, having NOL listed crippled it effort to restructure itself for the long run as it consistently faced wrath by short term investors to improve it profit margin not to mention the market punishing share price if still no improvement to short term profitabilty. But anyway this is all personnal view not to be taken seriously. last thing i noticed in 2Q the average revenue per FEU did not drop and it remain flat compared YoY, basically i feel that freight rate had bottomed out and soon it would recover with global recovering , might take a few quarters. counter      ( Date: 08-Aug-2014 07:56) Posted: If the new ships have not been deployed in Q2 for the big cut in slot cut, does it mean that the effects of the cost savings measures have not been fully realised. By the way, what exactly does it mean by a fall in volume due to strict capacity management and capacity management efforts. quote APL reported second quarter 2014 revenue of almost US$1.7 billion, a slight 2% year-on-year drop in spite of a 6% decline in volume due to strict capacity management. APL&rsquo s Intra-Asia trade shed 9% in volume against a 2% dip in freight rates amidst APL&rsquo s capacity management efforts. unquote
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RoundRound Elite	08-Aug-2014 12:36        RoundRound About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood: Yells: "Tikam Tikam can also"
x 1   x 0  Alert Admin	Never never fall in love with any counter, even one that previously made you money. Treat it as a commodity, or object to buy and sell
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