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Latest Forum Topics / China Fishery    Last:0.076 --  Post Reply
China Fishery - Low PE
stockpicker
Master
22-Jul-2014 08:37     
 
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As usual,  CF is waiting for the 3rd qrt result which is to be announced aound 10   August.     Some are buying up as usual awaiting for surprising results.  Many are waiting sideline for events to happen.    The El-Nino event will affect the result although the refund from the Russian Pollock will help CF going into the red.   However,  there were conflicting reports on the result of the catch so far. Some said the catch in 2014 will be about the same as 2013 and some said terrible results will be expected.   These made guessing works interesting..and therefore,    forumers&rsquo   view differs here.

Technically,  CF investors are taking a wait and see attitude with some investors,  especially the small ones keeping their fingers crossed but the majority are sidelined.   The chart is more following a parabolic projectile showing the result of waiting..CF may be able to take off under the following conditions.
  1. It much cross the next volume on  price hurdle at 0.385
  2. It much break the parabolic projectile


To do that,  the coming result must be good having a good outlook,  meaning there will be no El-Nino in the year.

 



However,  the investors could not wait longer as some of the indicators are showing or reaching over-bought conditions with little momentum forces pushing it at the back. However,  this would change if CF could report a beautiful 3rd qrt.. lets wait..
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Bigmama
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22-Jul-2014 07:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I follow his postings here ..... His unavoidable power rocket shoot for so long ..... Still around 38 cents leh.

Today confirm fire off meh? I

Redstar8730      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 23:56) Posted:

Waaa..大 奶 妈 又 来 了 。 Isolator, so tomorrow confirm up or not?

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Isolator
Supreme
22-Jul-2014 05:59     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Sti will rally this week...... Fish will jump up strongly...... Enjoy..
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Redstar8730
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21-Jul-2014 23:56     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Waaa..大 奶 妈 又 来 了 。 Isolator, so tomorrow confirm up or not?
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Bigmama
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21-Jul-2014 23:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Wow... This is your so call light speed? You still got face to post here?

Isolator      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 14:58) Posted:

Travel at light speed.. Cheong la....
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srichipan
Master
21-Jul-2014 17:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes going up
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Isolator
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21-Jul-2014 15:20     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Already in break out uptrend..... Enjoy...
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T2LE56
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21-Jul-2014 15:12     
 
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Are you ok ? Relax no news .... chiong what ?
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Isolator
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21-Jul-2014 14:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Travel at light speed.. Cheong la....
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Qanghoo
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21-Jul-2014 10:10     
 
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Just be sure that the pilot is not taking the Ukraine flight path.

Isolator      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 09:37) Posted:

Seatbelt on..... Time to fly..... Cheong la.......
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Isolator
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21-Jul-2014 09:37     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Seatbelt on..... Time to fly..... Cheong la.......
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cheongsl
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21-Jul-2014 07:27     
 
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The reason for the subsequent result should be good one, is that the copeinca shares 100% transfer have only complete in this year march, and the contribution of the copeinca should start to realise in the coming financial statement which is Apr ~ Jun 2014. As for the dept to EDBITA, it will be a lacking figure as the dept is to acquisition, and the benefit of acquisition will only be seen in the future, which still have yet to realise in current financial statement.

cheongsl      ( Date: 21-Jul-2014 07:08) Posted:



Note the different in the currency that might have create the different in the data. The other reason for my entry is technical. The chart show the break through of resistance with volume. Both the previous support that change to resistance  at 0.375 and also the slope resistance. And currently the trend still maintain true and next resistance level should be at 0.41.

 



stockpicker      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 21:50) Posted:



This one for week 28..dd 15 July 2014.. the price increases have trend of stablising..



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cheongsl
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21-Jul-2014 07:08     
 
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Note the different in the currency that might have create the different in the data. The other reason for my entry is technical. The chart show the break through of resistance with volume. Both the previous support that change to resistance  at 0.375 and also the slope resistance. And currently the trend still maintain true and next resistance level should be at 0.41.

 



stockpicker      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 21:50) Posted:



This one for week 28..dd 15 July 2014.. the price increases have trend of stablising..


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JMS213
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20-Jul-2014 22:48     
 
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Yells: "Just living is not enough. One must have sunshine, freedom !"
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Exactly, why would the bondholder care about the expansion ? They don' t care, but interested " what' s in it for me" hahaha  wink

Ultimately it will be a win win for both. 

 

Leongsan      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 11:00) Posted:



If you are holders of the Copenica bonds what you agree to. They care 2 hoots on expansion etc?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JMS213      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 00:42) Posted:



If you are now the team going to present the solicitation to the bondholders, what will you be saying to them ?

We want you to take up more debt $1.2bn. Of course, NOT. Read the headline.

China Fishery seeks Copeinca bondholders' nod to merge Peru ops, with $1.2bn debt

They must have thought through the whole process and were being advised by the experts before they they go ahead with this proposal.

" The proposed amendment will pave the way for China Fishery to consolidate its Peru operations under its main Peru subsidiary, CFG Peru," said Fitch

What is in the mind of all the bondholders " What' s in it for me ?"

Equilibrium is positive or long. Enjoy ... 


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stockpicker
Master
20-Jul-2014 21:50     
 
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This one for week 28..dd 15 July 2014.. the price increases have trend of stablising..

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stockpicker
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20-Jul-2014 21:09     
 
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The soure of chart is as quoted.. the following chart showed that 2013 price is about the same as 2010.. source is quoted as well..

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cheongsl
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20-Jul-2014 19:21     
 
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Thanks for replying but the data you provide does not seems to correlated with my and are you sure Norway is still the top four fishmeal exporter? Even Malaysia fishmeal export supply is more then Norway for the  past few year.

The price peak in Dec 2012 not in 2013, and for 2014 it is still rising, is Jun 2014 the peak





 

 

stockpicker      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 14:41) Posted:



CF is not insovent.  It is just not as healthy after having cumulated debts of around $1.5 bln and increasing.      Moody rated B2  for this counter which means the counter is not prime and the investment will be  risky.    Moody has just placed Copeinca under negative credit watch after the solicitation.   Fitch has similar ratings.

The Net Debt to Ebitda ratio standing presently at around 8.0 due to better earnings reported in the recent 2nd qrt.   Before that,    the ratio was more than 12.0.  There were doubts that it would be able to service the debts if the earnings continued to deteriorate.    

Fishmeal business is not as plain sailing as was described.   Fishmeal export peaked in 1993 and reduced by more than 2/3 in 2014 after the  price hiked at about 5x since 2004.



 

Because of the price hike  in fishmeal,  many animal farms are going for alternatives food or use lesser and lesser fishmeal in the food mix.   The over fishing and the El-Nino in recent years affected not only the fish catch but also the production of fishmeal.   As a result,  almost all the fishmeal companies lose money in 2011/12.     Three of the top 5 fishmeal companies put up for sale and only Copeinca can find a buyer so far.

Last year,  the fishmeal companies have had  a good year when their export increased together with a price hike.    However,  this good time will not last because it was  not due  to picking up in the demand but rather the Chinese, knowing the seriousness of the prevailing El-Nino,    stocked  up fish meal in order to ride through the present bad season.   As a result,  the price did not hike  as much this year and  peaked less than  2013.

Because of the lower catch and the capped peak price of fishmeal,  it will be a surprise if  CF can report a 3rd qrtly result as  as rosy  as 1st qrtly in end 2013 and 2nd qrt in early 2014.

cheongsl      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 07:44) Posted:



Thanks for your information. Dept ratio of 0.58 isn' t very high should not have solvency risk at the moment.

Of course the mention is not the only few reason that I enter. The fish meal industries is in the long terms upward trend with the pricing going upwards, and current trend is going upward again. Thus expect Apr~Jun quater income statement to improve.



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stockpicker
Master
20-Jul-2014 14:41     
 
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CF is not insovent.  It is just not as healthy after having cumulated debts of around $1.5 bln and increasing.      Moody rated B2  for this counter which means the counter is not prime and the investment will be  risky.    Moody has just placed Copeinca under negative credit watch after the solicitation.   Fitch has similar ratings.

The Net Debt to Ebitda ratio standing presently at around 8.0 due to better earnings reported in the recent 2nd qrt.   Before that,    the ratio was more than 12.0.  There were doubts that it would be able to service the debts if the earnings continued to deteriorate.    

Fishmeal business is not as plain sailing as was described.   Fishmeal export peaked in 1993 and reduced by more than 2/3 in 2014 after the  price hiked at about 5x since 2004.



 

Because of the price hike  in fishmeal,  many animal farms are going for alternatives food or use lesser and lesser fishmeal in the food mix.   The over fishing and the El-Nino in recent years affected not only the fish catch but also the production of fishmeal.   As a result,  almost all the fishmeal companies lose money in 2011/12.     Three of the top 5 fishmeal companies put up for sale and only Copeinca can find a buyer so far.

Last year,  the fishmeal companies have had  a good year when their export increased together with a price hike.    However,  this good time will not last because it was  not due  to picking up in the demand but rather the Chinese, knowing the seriousness of the prevailing El-Nino,    stocked  up fish meal in order to ride through the present bad season.   As a result,  the price did not hike  as much this year and  peaked less than  2013.

Because of the lower catch and the capped peak price of fishmeal,  it will be a surprise if  CF can report a 3rd qrtly result as  as rosy  as 1st qrtly in end 2013 and 2nd qrt in early 2014.

cheongsl      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 07:44) Posted:



Thanks for your information. Dept ratio of 0.58 isn' t very high should not have solvency risk at the moment.

Of course the mention is not the only few reason that I enter. The fish meal industries is in the long terms upward trend with the pricing going upwards, and current trend is going upward again. Thus expect Apr~Jun quater income statement to improve.



stockpicker      ( Date: 16-Jul-2014 00:37) Posted:



The cash of USD $80 mil was the 1st  refund for the termination of agreement for the ending of the  Russian Pollock  supply of fishes.  CF  borrowed money and pre-paid  USD$438 for this agreement in 2012 and 2013.  One should say the Russian Pollock deal is a failed  business and CF is saddened with a debt in which CF is now paying a heavy financial cost. Together with the USD$800 mil borrowed to acquire Copeinca,  CF has cumulated about  SGD$1,5 billions of debts with interest or finance cost of over SGD$100 mil per year.    This  1st refund may be able to cover the financial cost and show some surpluses in the coming quarterly report but those who knows that background will discount such  " incomes"   if it is reflected  in the  earning report.    It would be wise for  CF to  use the balance of the refund to reduce its long term debts rather than keeping it as cash  as they should have enough cash after changing its stand to  redeem  the Copeinca' s senior bonds.
cheongsl
Master		 15-Jul-2014 21:50         About cheongsl         Contact           Quote!              
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I have just vested.

Net Asset value per share is USD0.58, which is around S$0.72, current price is trade at around 50% discount.

The company is having profit over the years.

For the third quarter result, which is from Apr ~Jun 2014, it will be positively impact by the long term supply termination for LSA which shall be contributed of 80million USD in cash in Apr 2014, refer to news release on 24march 2014.

Total LSA for remaining for  refund is actually 161 million USD, this will make China Fish cash rich for other exploration.for your information. Dept ratio of 0.58 isn' t very high should not have solvency risk at the moment.

Of course the mention is not the only few reason that I enter. The fish meal industries is in the long terms upward trend with the pricing going upwards, and current trend is going upward again. Thus expect Apr~Jun quater income statement to improve.



stockpicker      ( Date: 16-Jul-2014 00:37) Posted:



The cash of USD $80 mil was the 1st  refund for the termination of agreement for the ending of the  Russian Pollock  supply of fishes.  CF  borrowed money and pre-paid  USD$438 for this agreement in 2012 and 2013.  One should say the Russian Pollock deal is a failed  business and CF is saddened with a debt in which CF is now paying a heavy financial cost. Together with the USD$800 mil borrowed to acquire Copeinca,  CF has cumulated about  SGD$1,5 billions of debts with interest or finance cost of over SGD$100 mil per year.    This  1st refund may be able to cover the financial cost and show some surpluses in the coming quarterly report but those who knows that background will discount such  " incomes"   if it is reflected  in the  earning report.    It would be wise for  CF to  use the balance of the refund to reduce its long term debts rather than keeping it as cash  as they should have enough cash after changing its stand to  redeem  the Copeinca' s senior bonds.
cheongsl
Master		 15-Jul-2014 21:50         About cheongsl         Contact           Quote!              
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I have just vested.

Net Asset value per share is USD0.58, which is around S$0.72, current price is trade at around 50% discount.

The company is having profit over the years.

For the third quarter result, which is from Apr ~Jun 2014, it will be positively impact by the long term supply termination for LSA which shall be contributed of 80million USD in cash in Apr 2014, refer to news release on 24march 2014.

Total LSA for remaining for  refund is actually 161 million USD, this will make China Fish cash rich for other exploration.


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Leongsan
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20-Jul-2014 11:00     
 
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If you are holders of the Copenica bonds what you agree to. They care 2 hoots on expansion etc?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JMS213      ( Date: 20-Jul-2014 00:42) Posted:



If you are now the team going to present the solicitation to the bondholders, what will you be saying to them ?

We want you to take up more debt $1.2bn. Of course, NOT. Read the headline.

China Fishery seeks Copeinca bondholders' nod to merge Peru ops, with $1.2bn debt

They must have thought through the whole process and were being advised by the experts before they they go ahead with this proposal.

" The proposed amendment will pave the way for China Fishery to consolidate its Peru operations under its main Peru subsidiary, CFG Peru," said Fitch

What is in the mind of all the bondholders " What' s in it for me ?"

Equilibrium is positive or long. Enjoy ... 

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cheongsl
Master
20-Jul-2014 07:44     
 
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Thanks for your information. Dept ratio of 0.58 isn' t very high should not have solvency risk at the moment.

Of course the mention is not the only few reason that I enter. The fish meal industries is in the long terms upward trend with the pricing going upwards, and current trend is going upward again. Thus expect Apr~Jun quater income statement to improve.



stockpicker      ( Date: 16-Jul-2014 00:37) Posted:



The cash of USD $80 mil was the 1st  refund for the termination of agreement for the ending of the  Russian Pollock  supply of fishes.  CF  borrowed money and pre-paid  USD$438 for this agreement in 2012 and 2013.  One should say the Russian Pollock deal is a failed  business and CF is saddened with a debt in which CF is now paying a heavy financial cost. Together with the USD$800 mil borrowed to acquire Copeinca,  CF has cumulated about  SGD$1,5 billions of debts with interest or finance cost of over SGD$100 mil per year.    This  1st refund may be able to cover the financial cost and show some surpluses in the coming quarterly report but those who knows that background will discount such  " incomes"   if it is reflected  in the  earning report.    It would be wise for  CF to  use the balance of the refund to reduce its long term debts rather than keeping it as cash  as they should have enough cash after changing its stand to  redeem  the Copeinca' s senior bonds.
cheongsl
Master		 15-Jul-2014 21:50         About cheongsl         Contact           Quote!              
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I have just vested.

Net Asset value per share is USD0.58, which is around S$0.72, current price is trade at around 50% discount.

The company is having profit over the years.

For the third quarter result, which is from Apr ~Jun 2014, it will be positively impact by the long term supply termination for LSA which shall be contributed of 80million USD in cash in Apr 2014, refer to news release on 24march 2014.

Total LSA for remaining for  refund is actually 161 million USD, this will make China Fish cash rich for other exploration.

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