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NOL
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earlybird14
Supreme |
16-Jul-2014 17:05
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maersk_Triple_E_class Slow steaming is one way of managing capacity and reducing fuel consumption the Triple E Class is designed for slower speeds than Maersk' s preceding class of large container ships. Nonetheless, this order for many big ships is a gamble, on Maersk' s part, that Chinese exports will continue to grow.[30] Lack of market growth in the second half of 2012 has caused Maersk to postpone a decision on how to use the Triple-E, and although five Triple-E are expected to be delivered in 2013, they will only have an impact sometime in 2014 when 8-9 Triple-E operate.[47] Maersk already uses approximately 100 ships on the Asia-Europe route, which is their most important.[24] SeaIntel expects about 46 ships with more than 10,000 TEU each to be delivered worldwide in 2013.[48] The construction of newer, larger ships has influenced development plans at ports such as London Gateway or JadeWeserPort in Wilhelmshaven (Germany).[49] This 20 18000 TEU container vessels will flood to the Asia Europe Route. The existing 100 container vessels operating at existing asia europe route which include 8000 to 13000 TEU container vessels will be transfer to other shipping routes including US and South America Routes! |
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spore1
Supreme |
16-Jul-2014 16:58
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Tdy is the turning point.94 cents will be history. More likely to go up
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danger
Supreme |
16-Jul-2014 16:55
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94.5cents all scooped up . STRONG BUY !! |
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-Jul-2014 15:41
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[BEIJING] China's growth accelerated to 7.5 per cent in the second quarter, according to government data.
Fixed asset investment were up by 17.3 per cent from January to June. Industrial output rose by 9.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in June, while retail sales rose 12.4 per cent y-o-y in June. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-Jul-2014 15:34
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Buyer from UOBKH.
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-Jul-2014 15:20
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The UOBKH analyst recommended a short term technical sell because NOL broke the 0.94 support but qualified his technical sell recommendation with a caveat - "Our institutional research has a fundamental BUY with a target price of S$1.17."
Maybe closing above 0.94 will trigger short covering.
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-Jul-2014 14:52
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Market Depth now - Total Bid (Buyers) : 3.43m Total Ask (Sellers) : 2.31m. Will be sweet to see a strong closing :) | ||||
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danger
Supreme |
16-Jul-2014 13:39
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We can see clearly investors and funds are pouring into NOL at rock bottom price |
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-Jul-2014 12:38
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For the past few weeks, the total sellers exceeded the total buyers in market depth. For the last 2 days, the total buyers now exceeded the total sellers. As at now, the total buyers in the q is 3.21m while the total sellers in the q is 2.28m, tapering off after $0.955 to less than 100 lots. Can't confirm if any of the q is fake but that's the stats in market depth now. Indicator of a turning point ? I'm sure the NOL can close $0.945 and above, the chart may look a bit more positive too. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
16-Jul-2014 12:30
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Back to the days when businesses were booming for the shipping industry, many of them scramble to increase their capacity. Ordering new ships take years to deliver esp when the shipyards were flooded with orders. One of the quicker ways was to 're-groom' older ships to get them to run a few more years to meet demand. Of course fast forward, the recession threw all of them off balance and now the new ships are being delivered and compounded the low demand problem with overwhelming supply. Argument for fleet renewal now is to counter cost pressure. There will be no reason to continue to run those older ships and the retirement of older ships will pick up momentum. Eventually the cycle will reverse once demand picks up again as the global economy recovers and the alliances consolidate. This is a cyclical industry and it is to catch the cycle at the right timing. | ||||
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counter
Veteran |
16-Jul-2014 11:40
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Not necessarily The flaw in your analysis is that you have omitted certain variables in the equation. For instance, as the vessels get older, the fuel consumption will increase, old technology aside. The repairs and maintenance will also increase.These and other factors may prompt liners to scrap the old vessels before they cannot move without proper maintenance. China Cosco Holdings can attest to that.
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spore1
Supreme |
16-Jul-2014 10:57
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Yup ppl r seeing value now . Consolidation mode .Getting ready to change direction
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danger
Supreme |
16-Jul-2014 10:40
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500 lots at 94cents all scooped up instantly !!!! LAI LIAO !!! |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
16-Jul-2014 10:17
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2005 to 2008, shipping and shipbuilding market key topic were fleet expansion and renewal. A lot of vessels were expected to step into 20 to 30 years old at that time in next 5 to 10 years. However, the real facts were realised that in 2012 to 2014, the old vessels scrapping rates are below expectation due to the main reason that majority of aging vessels were sent for intensive repair at the period of 2005 to 2008 which resulted that the aging vessels could be running for another 10 years. The 2 main reasons causing overcapacity now are new vessels are delivered continually and the aging vessels are still running on the sea and serving the loan of the intensive repair. The scraping rate are far slower than expected. Vessels are not limited with COE. 40 years old vessels with well maintenance are still operating on the sea. To get rid of all the old vessels will incur huge impairment loss recorded in balance book and reduce the asset value of the company. How many ship owners or container shipping company will really do that? Majority of them are still keeping the vessel or lay it off temporary and expect boom to come. But once the shipping market is recovered slightly, all these lay off vessel engine will be started to put the pressure on the vessel chartered rate and cargo shipping freight rate. A very long lay off period is required for all these vessels till it cannot move without proper maintenance.
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Myabaang
Member |
16-Jul-2014 09:26
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may be it is time to do somethings about APL? |
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Myabaang
Member |
16-Jul-2014 08:56
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APL ??? |
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Lucky03
Elite |
15-Jul-2014 19:59
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For those who simply condemning NOL, the shipping industry as a whole has been very tough and many are struggling and restructuring, disposing of non-core assets, speeding up fleet renewal and scrapping aged ships. Let's see NOL actions over last 2-3 yrs will bear fruits.
JOC ? Maritime News ? Container Lines ? COSCO Cosco scraps two dozen ships in first half Greg Knowler, Senior Asia Editor | Jul 15, 2014 7:11AM EDT China Cosco Holdings scrapped another eight vessels in the second quarter, taking to 24 ships disposed of in an urgent fleet renewal programme aimed at modernizing its fleet and improving the operational efficiency of the carrier amid mounting financial losses. Four of the ships were container carriers operated by Cosco Container Lines. The state owned shipping line did not disclose the capacity or the price per vessel, telling investors only that the eight ships were sold for $20 million. ?As a result of the decommissioning of the vessels, the average age of vessels owned by Cosco Container Lines and China Cosco Bulk Shipping (Group) Company have decreased, while the oil saving level and overall environmental friendliness of the vessels have been improved,? the carrier told investors in a filing on the Hong Kong Exchange. ?The board considers that the decommissioning of the vessels is conducive to enhancing the overall operational competitiveness of the shipping fleet of the company and is in the interest of the company and the shareholders as a whole.? Cosco has been taking advantage of Beijing?s new scrapping policy, which provides subsidies to carriers who demolish and build vessels in China. It scrapped 16 ships in the first quarter along, raising $127 million for the troubled carrier. After two consecutive years of losses, the company was last year one loss away from being delisted from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. However, Cosco reported an annual net income of ¥235.5 million (about US$38.3 million) in 2013, compared with net losses of ¥20 billion in 2011 and 2012, a result largely achieved through a series of asset sales to the parent company. But the restructuring is being felt well beyond the borders of China. Cosco Container Lines Americas announced a major restructuring move last week, saying it would close offices in Boston, Charleston, Chicago, Henderson, New York, Norfolk, San Francisco and Seattle. All functions will be transferred to the new operations center to be opened by January 2015, the company said. In addition, most of the customer service and operation functions performed at the Secaucus, New Jersey, headquarters will also be transferred. The company said it plans to finish the restructuring by year?s end. Offices in Houston, Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Long Beach, California are not on the list of office closures. According to data from PIERS, the data division of JOC Group Inc., Cosco?s market share of all laden containers moving in and out of the U.S. through May of this year stood at 4.1 percent, versus 2013 total market share of 4.4 percent and a 2012 market share of 4.1 percent. Maritime News?Container Lines?COSCO Maritime News?Container Lines |
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Lucky03
Elite |
15-Jul-2014 19:42
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Volume still improving.
Singapore port box volumes improve in June By Lee Hong Liang from Singapore The port of Singapore recorded 2.84m teu of container throughput in June, an improvement over the same month of last year, according to preliminary estimates from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA). Last month?s box volumes were up 4.1% compared to 2.73m teu handled in June 2013, MPA figures showed. On a month-on-month basis, however, volumes decreased 3.6% from 2.94m teu registered in May. In the first half of 2014, Singapore port handled a total throughput of 16.51m teu, an increase of 4.4% compared to 15.81m teu posted in the previous corresponding period. Singapore?s closest rival, China?s Shanghai port, saw first half throughput came up to 17.26m teu, edging pass Singapore?s volumes by about 750,000 teu in the same period. Last year, China was crowned the world?s busiest container port with an annual volume of 33.77m teu, beating second position Singapore which recorded 32.58m teu. Published inAsia, Containers, Port & Logistic |
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Lucky03
Elite |
14-Jul-2014 21:05
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Like counter, let me repost :)
NOL is a global shipping company. Their fate is not not how well they manage but also how the industry and global landscape is developing. There are 5 keys factors fot considerations - 1. NOL cost cutting, operation efficiency and financial management. Maersk didn't overnight turn profitable but took a couple of years to carry out those cost cutting and operation efficiency measures. NOL started 3 yrs ago and finally completed the fleet renewal this year with the last 10 ships out of 34 ordered already received this year. Many other liners are doing catch up now. 2. The overall supply and demand. It is a fact that overall supply overhang will be around for a while. 3. Demand is directly proportionate to containers volumes being handled which in turn is dependent on global trades which is in turn dependent on global economy. As we can see, US continues to grow strongly, Japan is pumping stimulus and seeing some encouraging results, China and India are emerging from their low (still growing though) and expected to improve. 4. The freight rate will continue to stay low as factor 2 continues to exceed the effect of factor 3. The big question is whether the supply is not getting any worst and if the global demand will continue to get better. Many ports are reporting higher containers being handled and re aggressively expanding. Some are already reporting hitting pre-crisis level. 5. Competition in the industry. It is no doubt scale is king and they have proven to be able to be profitable despite the very low freight rate. One of the key consideration is to minimize returning ships with no cargos. That's why the alliance is very important. M&A is picking up steam and NOL will have to play the same game. Hapag's expression of interest is a serious message and it will unlikely be taken lightly. May prompt Tamesek to act earlier than later. Well, it is anyone's call but we should not just brush NOL off and hopeless. I do see that they have executed all the right moves including reorganization from a geographical control one to a functional one to allow a more responsive and effective decision making process to capture market and to adapt to competition and to drive synergy. In the last AGM recording that I played from their site, the CFO highlighted that they are operationally cash positive, ie not burning cash. Their obligation for payment of the ships will taper off this year and hence CAPEX is expected to be lower in FY14. I doubt NOL will make a rights issue this round. NOL reported for its liner business, for FY13 that it achieved cost savings for per FEU was 8% but a combination of 2% drop in volume plus lower freight rate knock off 8% off its revenue per FEU by 8% too. Undoubtedly, their performance was helped by the profit recognized for the sale of their HQ and the other 2 lines of business which are profitable. For Q1 FY14, it reported reduction of 6% for cost per FEU while the revenue per FEU was 6% lower due to lower freight rate but net impact was 5% partly due to 2% higher volume. The question is whether the cost reduction going forward will exceed any further drop in freight rate and if volume will decrease too. I can't recall where I found it but I believe the market expect probably another 5% or so drop in freight rate this year. The question therefore is whether the cost saving will exceed 5% and if volume will be higher. Given the better economic numbers and volume handled by ports, we should see increase in volume esp after the rebound from the severe winter season. Hopefully returning the more expensive charted ships and deploying the additional 10 new and more fuel efficient ships this FY will yield higher than 5% or even 8% cost savings. If you read yesterday's Invest Pg 42, the recent second-round stimulus measures by ECB will see the release of about 400 billion euro in cheap bank loans to consumers and companies starting in September. Hapag should have not much difficulty to raise the cash for any acquisition if Tamesek is willing to sell out or accept any merger arrangement. However, I doubt Tamesek will sell out as it will have to write down the price that it paid to raise its shareholdings to 67% in 2004 at $2.80 each. More likely a share swap esp when many shareholders expect to see NOL delivers the cost savings and turn the ships around after the 2.5 yrs of fleet renewal which has just ended with the last 10 ships delivered and 5 chartered ships retuned this year.
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Lucky03
Elite |
14-Jul-2014 20:54
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I've been in the market for many years and have my fair share of 'glory and shame', 'excitement and despair', 'dreaming and being forced down-to-earth'. For those who witnessed the Black Monday in Oct 1987, Market Crash in 1993, Asian Financial Crisis 1997, Mahathia of Malaysia sudden imposition of capital control and demise of Clob market in 1998, Twin Tower Attack in 2001, Global Financial Crisis in 2007, I can't agree more with your posting, counter.
There are some businesses that will not disappear totally and they will survive the ups as downs and the global economic cycle. |
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