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NOL
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 21:21
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S'pore shippers see fresh hope for liner reform in Asia after P3 rejection By Marcus Hand from Singapore Singapore shippers? see fresh hope of regulatory reform for liner shipping following China?s rejection of the P3 alliance. Singapore National Shippers? Council (SNSC) said shippers across Asia were ?delighted? by the China?s Ministry of Commerce (MofCom) to reject the proposed P3 alliance of Maersk Line, Mediterranean Shipping Co and CMA CGM. ?The sheer size would have given P3 the capability to dictate the direction of the freight market,? SNSC said. The shippers? council added it was a landmark decision second only to the European Commission?s repeal of block exemption for liner shipping conferences in 2008. As such the move by China has given SNSC fresh heart in its longstanding battle for liner industry regulatory reform in Asia to tackle what it sees as cartel practices. ?It has given us fresh hope going forward and energised our drive to work for maritime regulatory reform to bring an end to the ?cartel system? in liner shipping?. |
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stevenk
Senior |
23-Jun-2014 21:06
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 20:29
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This time, shortist will seek for new low. Better stay away and see. A swing will only happen after huge volume sell down. So far, low volume moving down, more to go down.
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 19:18
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Yes, need some price fluctuation to attract some interest to offer some opportunity and excitement.
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spore1
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 17:21
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Every low provide a good opportunity . Think 95 cents will be a good price to consider for long . DYODD
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 16:09
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Really, nothing to say right, now move to politic issue about PAP supporter or Anti PAP. Temasek is not belong to PAP, GIC too. If 1 day, Lee Family walk away from politic, PAP collapse or break into 2 parties or lose the support from Singaporean. Temasek and GIC are still there, these 2 investment holding are belong to Singapore. It is like world largest fund norway sovereign wealth funds, it is belong to the country and managed by the government. Which party are elected to be the government, they will be the party to manage the fund.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 16:03
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Gone case? I am talking more about if investing in NOL is a right choice from present till next 6 month to 1 year time. Based on what NOL has now, the company can last about 2 years till their notes or bond expiry and require to refinance. The 4 billion of borrowing is a poison now and will be the burst 2 year later if NOL fail to pump in cash and the cash will be burnt off by the interest and continue loss making Based on the cash position, business operation condition and etc, NOL need cash, close to 400 million gain sales of headquarter are used out, there are not positive assets can be sold. The company cannot make profit, but loan has to be served. Right issue will come any time, once it come, share will be diluted(it may not 1 to 1, it may be 1 to 2 or to 4, to raise more cash), share price will drop. Temasek is not charity hub. As what they did before, they may only take over those right which the existing shareholder don' t want or unable to pay and increase Temasek stake. NOL may not gone case, but existing shareholders benefit is gone case.
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sgng123
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 15:19
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hsbc june china pmi returned to growth 50.8, but currently iraq shit keeping everything down.
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sgng123
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 15:15
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lol he anti PAP, anything temasek linked he go nut on it regardless of fact. For now we did not know further detail of what going to happen, best approach is keep quiet and hand off ship better this way. What if thing turn out for the better or worse, would get flamed by the whole forum for making baseless warning/recommendation. Keep Quiet and Let those who want to get flamed later enjoy their vent.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 14:31
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The fat guy enjoying his million dollar annual salary, He was awarded with million dollar shares since his first day in NOL. After 3 years of his effort, NOL is still the same. He may be thinking how to cash out all his shares now since he may be kicked out from the Group soon.
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 13:03
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Certainly wish that the General at NOL gets your message loud and clear :)
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 12:50
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No vested and sure about it. Instead of putting salt on it few month later, I would prefer to give warning alarm.
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 12:46
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As pointed out by you, it is not that shipping industry has no chance to be profitable as demonstrated by Maersk. It is simply that NOL is gone case ??? | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 12:44
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You sure you are not vested ? You certainly is very adamant on the doomsday of NOL in particular ?!
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 12:39
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The more you understand the shipping market, the more you will know chance for NOL to survive is hard, chance for NOL to boom again is almost zero. New container shipping volume under the order in past 2 years will be 16%. World GDP is only 2 to 3% per year. It doesn' t include the new order of new vessels to order with cheaper price in next 2 years. " Unfortunately, when companies go bankrupt or when their ships get arrested and sold, they do not go away but continue to trade with lower capital costs, thereby prolonging the depressed freight markets." This is the real facts. This is like property bubble, once bubble burst, it take decade to recovery. The bad news to NOL is P3 are profitable, when competitors managed to be profitable, they will beating the price and occupy more market share. P3 network is fail but doesn' t mean NOL can survive. Maersk and MSC shipping capacity is equal to G6 total capacity, nothing is changed. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 12:33
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I thought I posted this sometimes back. Yes read it and understand both sides of the coin.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 12:28
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As we approach midyear 2014, shipping&rsquo s economics remain stuck in the doldrums with little or no recovery in sight. The surplus of ships to cargoes has been aggravated by the delivery of a massive orderbook of new ships that followed the boom markets of the middle of the last decade. The surplus has affected every market with the possible exception of gas, both LNG and LPG. It has hit the wet and dry bulk and container markets especially hard. The effect has been severe as few ships in these markets generate a profit after operating expenses, debt interest and amortization. Numerous public companies have gone bankrupt as have many private ones. The German KG funds have been almost completely wiped out and created huge losses for German shipping banks. The average age of the world fleet is at an historic low, meaning it will be around for at least another decade. Unfortunately, when companies go bankrupt or when their ships get arrested and sold, they do not go away but continue to trade with lower capital costs, thereby prolonging the depressed freight markets. Furthermore, a majority of the fleets in most sectors trade in the spot markets without any period charter cover in the false expectation that markets will recover or secondhand values will increase. This ignores the fact that shipyard capacity remains high, and in countries like Korea and China shipbuilding has now become a strategic industry supported by domestic banks funding the construction phase and government funds backing export credits &ndash all without any secure operating income from charters. Blind Capital Unfortunately, this rush to order new ships has been fueled by an influx of new money, both equity and bonds, from private equity and hedge funds that are gambling on rising ship values and not the long-term revenue streams from operations. The vast majority of ships on order today have no contractual employment and no evidential income other than indications of future ship values referenced back to the boom years of 10 years ago. Some have likened this influx of new money to what Walter Bagehot in the mid-nineteenth century called &ldquo blind capital&rdquo : &ldquo Credulous capital, ignoring risks, flooding into unwise investments.&rdquo Tellingly, there is no sign of any investment interest from mutual funds or institutional investors such as pension funds or life insurance companies, which are usually averse to short-term gambles. The speculative day traders have fun playing the rumors and the price volatility of the publicly traded companies. Especially surprising is the activity of some of private equity funds in buying distressed bank debt at marginal discounts. If a shipowner cannot service his existing bank debt, how is he going to service the new owners of the debt when they have much higher expectations of return on their investments than simple bank margins? It has been said that some of these funds are looking for default so they can convert the loans to equity, take over the ships, and sell them for a profit. The track record of these deals so far is not good, and the current focus on newbuildings only prolongs excess fleet capacity and lower freight rates, which are the key metrics of the shipping industry. The list of publicly traded shipping companies on U.S. stock exchanges is the worst performing of any sector. Original equity has been emasculated by secondary offerings and huge secured debts that in many cases exceed the current market value of the ships that are the security. In the past 12 months we have seen the emergence of new forms of &ldquo junk bonds&rdquo with double-digit interest rates that rapidly escalate on default and look more like the cash advance lending that proliferates among the poor. This junk is surprisingly not shown as debt in the borrower&rsquo s balance sheets and is ironically termed &ldquo perpetual.&rdquo No Evidence of Increased Demand So while new money is finding the shipping industry, what is the outlook for the services it provides? The freight markets for most ship types remain severely depressed because of the excess capacity generated by the newbuilding orders that followed the brief boom of 10 years ago and then faced the financial crises and the global recession that still envelops the world today. Yet it is reported that some $40 billion of newbuilding orders were placed in the first four months of 2014. This current reckless activity in ordering hundreds of new ships will only extend further the bad markets and push any balancing between supply and demand into the next decade at the earliest. The claims of fuel economies for the new ships will not force earlier scrapping as the older ships have less capital invested in them and can be maintained to operate until they are at least 20 years old. There is no evidence of any increased demand for shipping, except in the gas sectors, and the newfound resources of oil and gas in the U.S. will have a negative effect on crude oil shipments. This may well be compounded by the new pipelines between Russia and China, the reduction in consumption of gasoline in China, and the expansion of &ldquo fracking&rdquo in Europe. The U.S. will reduce its imports of crude oil by at least 50 percent in the next 10 years and convert its trucking fleets to natural gas by 2025. It unfortunately will take several years before the current influx of new money faces the reality that it is operating income that makes a business and not the fluctuating values of the operating assets. &ndash MarEx |
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earlybird14
Supreme |
23-Jun-2014 12:27
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Potential? What Potential can NOL has? 16% of new vessels are going to be delivered in next 2 years which imply minimum 1 to 2 years for the industry to suffer except P3. All containers are crazily looking for money to fill their loss and to look for survival. http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/OPED-The-Shipping-Recovery-That-Never-Arrived-2014-06-04
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 12:24
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PUBLISHED JUNE 23, 2014
Japan June flash manufacturing PMI shows first expansion in 3 months PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE [TOKYO] Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in June for the first time in three months, a preliminary survey showed on Monday, in a sign that domestic demand has quickly recovered from a sales tax increase at the start of April. The Markit/JMMA flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.1 in June from a final reading of 49.9 in May. The index rose above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the first time in three months. The output component of the flash PMI index rose to 51.8 from a final 48.9 in April. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
23-Jun-2014 12:23
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PUBLISHED JUNE 23, 2014
Seoul: Stocks rebound on China PMI, won strengthens PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE - PHOTO: AFP [SEOUL] South Korean shares rebounded on Monday morning on bargain hunting after suffering the worst day in eight weeks in the previous session, with China's factory activity growth in June cheering the market. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) was up 0.5 per cent at 1,978.13 points as of 0256 GMT, rising as high as 1,979.67. The index had shed 1.2 percent on Friday, the biggest daily percentage drop since April 25. "An upbeat figure certainly brings out cheers, but it will be short-lived as investors have to take into consideration that it is a preliminary survey," said Shinhan Investment Corp analyst Han Beom-ho, referring to China's June manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index. A private survey on Monday showed China's manufacturing PMI in June expanded for the first time in six months, rising to 50.8 from 49.4 in May, offering new signs South Korea's largest export market is stabilising. |
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