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Ausgroup - the train is moving soon
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Codfish
Member |
20-May-2014 22:50
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This week will see Ausgroup moving uptrend again.... Look stable n will spike soon when Ezion effect is coming true soon |
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sharefbb05
Senior |
15-May-2014 11:12
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Up trend resuming? |
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ozone2002
Supreme |
15-May-2014 10:49
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Last:0.435 Vol:5496k +0.015
someone out there doesn't want u to buy cheaper than Ezion's price
only can buy cheaper than NAV
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john_ric
Supreme |
15-May-2014 10:19
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. anaylsts' reports not always accurate. sometimes are like farting. today price back to .435/.44 |
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
15-May-2014 10:19
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Ausgroup - Too Much Speculation Written By Stock Fanatic on Friday, May 9, 2014 | 9.5.14
AusGroup&rsquo s core PATMI slid back into the red in 3Q14, even as revenues rose 7% q-o-q. While the healthier AUD395m orderbook is a positive, we remain concerned on execution. The stock has nearly trebled since its Dec 2013 low, well ahead of any news flow, and has priced in much more than a simple earnings recovery.
We downgrade to SELL with a SGD0.36 TP (from SGD0.25) based on 1x FY15F P/BV.
■ Still no core earnings
AusGroup&rsquo s gross margin improved marginally to 11.9% q-o-q (from 11.4%) amid a 7% increase in revenue. However, this did not translate to core earnings. After stripping out the gains on asset disposals and the write-off of ASX listing prepayments in 3Q14, AusGroup&rsquo s core PATMI was a small negative AUD0.1m.
■ No timeline on Ezion (EZI SP, BUY, TP: SGD3.00)&rsquo s marine base
The main reason for the big run-up in AusGroup&rsquo s share price was Ezion taking a 7% stake &ndash making the latter its single largest shareholder &ndash with the aim of collaborating on a marine base and other projects. However, we note that AusGroup&rsquo s share price moved well ahead of any announcements by either party.
Technical Analysis
■ Valuations look rich
We are assuming a 7.4% EBITDA margin for FY15F &ndash a level that AusGroup has not delivered since FY12 &ndash along with a 21% revenue rebound. Even making this strong assumption, the shares are already trading at 22x P/E. With ROE below its cost of equity, even in this recovery scenario, we believe that AusGroup should trade at no more than book value, but is currently trading at 1.3x P/BV.
■ Too much speculation
We believe that neither current earnings nor recovery-scenario earnings can justify AusGroup&rsquo s valuations today. As such, there is a strong element of speculation in the price. In the absence of more supporting news flow, the share price has likely run far ahead of fundamentals. Thus, we downgrade the stock to SELL with a TP of SGD0.36 (from SGD0.25), which is based on 1x FY15F P/BV. (Read Report)
NAV as at 31/3/14 : AUD 29.9 9c (S$ 34.98c)
DYODD
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Codfish
Member |
15-May-2014 10:09
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Don' t believe the analyst reports, see it is moving up ! Ezion mgt is now a strategic investor in Ausgroup n now that they are given the Port Mel project in Australia, will soon announce plans for it! buy now n not wait till the announcement will be too late, by then analyst will have buy calls! |
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brchkho1
Master |
14-May-2014 11:28
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Looks like this one is staying within this band for awhile.
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sharefbb05
Senior |
12-May-2014 16:49
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This stock follow STI... STI has correction it will drop
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brchkho1
Master |
12-May-2014 13:03
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From all the signals, I have the same view. It should be well supported at this level unless there is any other surprise from any other major international event.
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hem2998
Veteran |
12-May-2014 12:38
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Downside risk limited to 37 where ezion bought....40-42 shld hold in my view.
Looking oversold?
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brchkho1
Master |
12-May-2014 12:15
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From the transaction done till now, looks like someone is throwing to buyers at 0.415 with small quantity. Trying to frighten the weak holders???? Support level at 0.415???? |
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hem2998
Veteran |
12-May-2014 11:24
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the gap at 415/42 has been filled. i' ve taken a small position at 42 for now. |
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halleluyah
Supreme |
12-May-2014 10:10
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DMG downgrade tp to 0.36 |
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sharefbb05
Senior |
12-May-2014 10:08
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I asking this question to myself also
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ozone2002
Supreme |
12-May-2014 09:48
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Last:0.415 Vol:415k  -0.01
now is less than NAV, the qn is can u buy cheaper than ezion
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amateurlearner
Member |
12-May-2014 09:32
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shall i hold or sell? |
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amateurlearner
Member |
12-May-2014 09:28
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dropping now!! |
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Codfish
Member |
09-May-2014 18:32
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If analyst say sell that' s the time they buy lah if buy when Ezion n Ausgroup announce their working collaboration it will be too late than ezion already been appointed for the Port Mel project, of course bring Ausgroup strategic investor they will lift Ausgroup biz n their own interest! |
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sharefbb05
Senior |
09-May-2014 16:20
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0.42 now... Hope can stay above 0.4 next week.. |
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dennis1268
Member |
09-May-2014 12:53
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Volume stuck at 844..Not moving at all.
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