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SMRT
yourdadisme
Member
25-Apr-2014 21:29     
 
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When is 0.80 coming?

3 MONTHS ALREADY LEH?
YOUR PREDICKION DAMN ZUN SIAH !!!

 

MetalTrader2      ( Date: 14-Mar-2014 23:42) Posted:

Prediction (SMRT)
27 Jan b4 open-          I predicted that SMRT current price          $1.19 is far overpriced, and          will move downward below $1 before moving towards its fair value (2 digits).
SMRT's NAV ($0.51)  with packed cabins, frequent breakdowns required increased maintenance cost.          The downtrend will move gradually overtime, which may take months. Besides, the          decrease in dividends  from 7 cents to 2 cents do not make it an attractive stocks.           

Shareholders of SMRT had already received          accumulated dividends          more  than original IPO price-          which essentially means they are holding SMRT stocks are of no cost. (As Dividends over the years > SMRT IPO $0.61).          As SMRT consists of assets which are aging, it is a        depreciating assets (Which will impact the NAV $0.51)
I boldly predict SMRT will fall below $1, and towards the  $0.70- $0.80 range  in months to come.

27 Jan-  Market closed      $1.18
28 Jan-    Market closed      $1.19
29 Jan-    Market closed      $1.165
* Prediction Ended @ 29 Jan (Account Banned by Admin, any update is halted)

As of 14 March SMRT stands at $1.03 

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brchkho1
Master
25-Apr-2014 21:27     
 
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Good analysis, one important note that I have learnt from SBSTransit' s AGM, listed companies providing public transports are in similar dilemma situation as the relevant authority. Whilist fares are not in control on one hand, and yet delivery returns to shareholders is the responsibility of the Board. The relevant authority needs to balance the political issue of fares for mass and yet to ensure survival of the listed companies. It' s not an easy job. Rise fares by a few cents, you will hear lots of KPKB........, Listed companies not making money, you will also hear lots of KPKB too. Try to go to the AGMs of SBSTransit and SMRTfrownfrownfrown

WanSiTong      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 14:47) Posted:



SMRT - Price surged today with heavy volume queried by SGX
Written By Stock Fanatic on Thursday, April 24, 2014 |
 
Daily Chart
Share price of SMRT surged more than 20% today, hitting as high as S$1.24. The stock was heavily traded and eventually closed at $1.215 (up 18.5%).
What we think:
Two possible reasons.
 
Scenario 1: Railway Financing Framework in place - Highly possible - 
We believe that SMRT is making inroads with regulators regarding the accounting of asset transfers under the new rail-financing framework. This is assume to be very close to a conclusion. In short, the end result will be a predictable cash flows and a more sustainable financing model, which will alter the fate of the company.
 
Think of this as a &ldquo cost-plus&rdquo model on a Public-Private-participation scheme. Under the new rail financing framework, LTA will collect a licence charge that the operator will pay for the right to run and generate returns from the revenue service. The monies received will be pooled together to replace and enhance operating equipment such as trains, signaling systems and other operating assets for operating the Railway Transport System (RTS).
 
The licence charge comprises fixed and variable components. The fixed component is calibrated to take into account factors such as the viability of the line, its long-term operational and maintenance needs, and the benefits and costs that the line is likely to bring to/impose on the rest of the railway network. The variable component ensures the appropriate level of risk-sharing between government and the operator.
 
What this means in our numbers?
We modeled in significant amount of service enhancement works that would be completed within the next 24 months, related costs would taper, leading to margin recovery in FY2015F. As such, we should see a 36% yoy improvement on core net profit (FY15 net profit S$84m).
 
The shift/change in business model (to cost-plus model, if indeed this happen) will would also go a long way into reversing SMRT&rsquo s bus losses 12-18 months from now and significantly improve margins, earnings and cash flows. This should help mitigate the incremental costs required to improve the other related opex (e.g. staff costs, repairs and maintenance costs, etc.), which are currently causing severe the cost-revenue misalignment.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
Scenario 2: Nationalization of SMRT? - Lower possibility &ndash  
Though not ruled out entirely, is the possibility of nationalizing the company. Hard to imagine why that should be the case. We do not think it is in the interest of the government to &ldquo own&rdquo back the company, and subject itself to further abuse from disgruntled commenters whenever trains breakdown, or fare increase is necessitated. Yes, granted that Temasek owns 55% of the company, but this is not so Olam-like. Of course, many of us are left scratching our heads on that transaction.
 
What you should do:
Fare adjustment remains a problem and revenue growth will still lag behind cost inflation. Once the new railway financing framework come into play, and predictable cash flows and a more sustainable financing model are ensured, fate of the company remains bleak. Until then, the stock may continue to struggle.
 

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golden_SGX
Master
25-Apr-2014 20:57     
 
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" Poor train service, always breakdown..."

don' t complain too much at least ...

SMXX Says Its Pilots Ensure Train and Passenger &lsquo Never Get Lost&rsquo





iwonder      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 20:15) Posted:



This counter will never die.

Poor train service, always breakdown and  train fare  to passengers still go up.

Make not enough profit, just up fares... control by Lui (money). Do you have a choice?

ascend88      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 17:20) Posted:



any upgrade ?


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iwonder
Veteran
25-Apr-2014 20:15     
 
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This counter will never die.

Poor train service, always breakdown and  train fare  to passengers still go up.

Make not enough profit, just up fares... control by Lui (money). Do you have a choice?

ascend88      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 17:20) Posted:



any upgrade ?

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daffytlh
Veteran
25-Apr-2014 17:32     
 
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i sold my 10 lots liao. can go ah kun  lim  teh si   for free for  a  few weeks.. prob is now everything is rumour floating around. all speculative play.  TA also wont be zhun. see weekend what straits times say. have good weekend . huat arh!!!
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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 17:20     
 
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any upgrade ?
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victortan
Elite
25-Apr-2014 17:15     
 
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My broekr told me mkt rumour SMRT gg to be privatise.disclaimer

 
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renzokun
Senior
25-Apr-2014 16:54     
 
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Well done well done ...take profit n leave some
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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 16:53     
 
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8 more mins....to closing....

can it close at 1.28-1.29 ?

come on thomas.....!

can u reach it ? yes u can  !
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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 16:24     
 
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well done :)

daffytlh      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 12:59) Posted:



i just try lah buy small . bot 10 lots  @ 1.22. hope this becomes another olam. huat arh!

actually what really happen. how come went up so much? i neber monitor this counter till recent spike.  can anyone share?

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Markie
Senior
25-Apr-2014 16:23     
 
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good for you=]

ascend88      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 16:06) Posted:



1.225 now...

able to take all the mortar hit today.....

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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 16:12     
 
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1.25 !

Show no mercy gentlemen !

 
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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 16:10     
 
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CHEONG AH !!!!!

 

1.245 !

 
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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 16:07     
 
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16:06:58 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:58 1.230 70,000 A
16:06:58 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:55 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:55 1.230 20,000 B
16:06:55 1.230 4,000 B
16:06:52 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:51 1.230 9,000 A
16:06:51 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:50 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:49 1.230 30,000 A
16:06:49 1.230 1,000 B
16:06:49 1.230 5,000 B
16:06:49 1.230 10,000 B
16:06:41 1.235 9,000 A
16:06:41 1.235 1,000 A
16:06:40 1.235 10,000 A
16:06:39 1.235 10,000 A
16:06:39 1.235 1,000 A
16:06:39 1.235 9,000 A
16:06:37 1.235 41,000 A
16:06:37 1.235 15,000 A
16:06:37 1.235 1,000 A
16:06:37 1.235 20,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 20,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 9,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 4,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:31 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:30 1.230 6,000 A
16:06:30 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:30 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:30 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:30 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:30 1.230 7,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 5,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 18,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 6,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 50,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:29 1.230 14,000 A
16:06:28 1.230 20,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 6,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 8,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 15,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 7,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 10,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 4,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 1,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 2,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 3,000 A
16:06:25 1.230 13,000 A
16:05:01 1.225 1,000 B
16:04:39 1.225 6,000 B
16:04:39 1.225 5,000 B
16:04:33 1.225 5,000 A
16:04:31 1.225 10,000 A
16:04:26 1.225 10,000 B
16:04:26 1.225 5,000 B
16:04:26 1.225 5,000 B
16:04:26 1.225 10,000 B
16:04:26 1.225 5,000 B
16:04:26 1.225 10,000 B
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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 16:06     
 
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1.225 now...

able to take all the mortar hit today.....
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ascend88
Master
25-Apr-2014 15:58     
 
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from 1.6x (  march 2013) the drop was very steep.......within 1 yr  (till march 2014).....price reached 1.02....

so the climb up  will be sharp too....1.29 maybe the next resistance....

 

 

 
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WanSiTong
Supreme
25-Apr-2014 14:47     
 
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SMRT - Price surged today with heavy volume queried by SGX
Written By Stock Fanatic on Thursday, April 24, 2014 |
 
Daily Chart
Share price of SMRT surged more than 20% today, hitting as high as S$1.24. The stock was heavily traded and eventually closed at $1.215 (up 18.5%).
What we think:
Two possible reasons.
 
Scenario 1: Railway Financing Framework in place - Highly possible - 
We believe that SMRT is making inroads with regulators regarding the accounting of asset transfers under the new rail-financing framework. This is assume to be very close to a conclusion. In short, the end result will be a predictable cash flows and a more sustainable financing model, which will alter the fate of the company.
 
Think of this as a &ldquo cost-plus&rdquo model on a Public-Private-participation scheme. Under the new rail financing framework, LTA will collect a licence charge that the operator will pay for the right to run and generate returns from the revenue service. The monies received will be pooled together to replace and enhance operating equipment such as trains, signaling systems and other operating assets for operating the Railway Transport System (RTS).
 
The licence charge comprises fixed and variable components. The fixed component is calibrated to take into account factors such as the viability of the line, its long-term operational and maintenance needs, and the benefits and costs that the line is likely to bring to/impose on the rest of the railway network. The variable component ensures the appropriate level of risk-sharing between government and the operator.
 
What this means in our numbers?
We modeled in significant amount of service enhancement works that would be completed within the next 24 months, related costs would taper, leading to margin recovery in FY2015F. As such, we should see a 36% yoy improvement on core net profit (FY15 net profit S$84m).
 
The shift/change in business model (to cost-plus model, if indeed this happen) will would also go a long way into reversing SMRT&rsquo s bus losses 12-18 months from now and significantly improve margins, earnings and cash flows. This should help mitigate the incremental costs required to improve the other related opex (e.g. staff costs, repairs and maintenance costs, etc.), which are currently causing severe the cost-revenue misalignment.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
Scenario 2: Nationalization of SMRT? - Lower possibility &ndash  
Though not ruled out entirely, is the possibility of nationalizing the company. Hard to imagine why that should be the case. We do not think it is in the interest of the government to &ldquo own&rdquo back the company, and subject itself to further abuse from disgruntled commenters whenever trains breakdown, or fare increase is necessitated. Yes, granted that Temasek owns 55% of the company, but this is not so Olam-like. Of course, many of us are left scratching our heads on that transaction.
 
What you should do:
Fare adjustment remains a problem and revenue growth will still lag behind cost inflation. Once the new railway financing framework come into play, and predictable cash flows and a more sustainable financing model are ensured, fate of the company remains bleak. Until then, the stock may continue to struggle.
 
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Markie
Senior
25-Apr-2014 13:41     
 
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Singapore' s SMRT Corp Ltd , the operator of the city-state' s main rail network, asked the government on Wednesday about a financing framework which would reduce its capital expenditure, The Straits Times reported.

SMRT shares shot up on Thursday to close 19 percent higher, prompting a " trade with caution" alert from the Singapore stock exchange. The shares were trading 3.3 percent lower on Friday morning at S$1.175.

A spokeswoman for SMRT declined to comment on the Straits Times report, which did not cite sources.

SMRT has previously expressed interest in changing to a financing framework that was introduced by the government in 2010. Under this system, the government would own the assets, and be responsible for replacing them. This would free SMRT from having to incur huge capital expenditures on asset replacement. (Reporting by Andrew Toh Editing byEdwina Gibbs)
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Markie
Senior
25-Apr-2014 13:40     
 
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Singapore' s SMRT sought new finance framework ahead of stock surge -report


brchkho1      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 13:24) Posted:



Agreed. Usually hope will turn into dream. when wake up, oh.....it' s only a dream.

Markie      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 13:12) Posted:

I completely rule out privatization.

It's impossibl
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brchkho1
Master
25-Apr-2014 13:24     
 
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Agreed. Usually hope will turn into dream. when wake up, oh.....it' s only a dream.

Markie      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 13:12) Posted:

I completely rule out privatization.

It's impossible

daffytlh      ( Date: 25-Apr-2014 13:08) Posted:



hmm.. px  surge b4 results come out meaning gd results?. unlikely.. so much bad publicity on train faults and fines.. hope Temasek make offer.. sweet sgd 2..everyone huat big big arhh


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