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Wilmar Intl
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Wilmar - Watch for a Strong Rally to Come!
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earlybird14
Supreme |
18-Jan-2014 11:46
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Malaysia has Rules to blend 5% palm oil to biodiesel. Indonesia is 7.5%. In march, Indonesia will increase it to 10%, and Malaysia is still under plan.
The oil market is still under control by oil & gas company and they pay the tax most. Biofuel is still no market in short term. Biofuel is in the future and corrosive problem is a forever problem, implement high percentage of biofuel blend with gasoline will affect the facities investment change from upstream refinery plant till down stream the car components, all must change to suit for biofuels. Time being, nobody is doing that. Biofuel is still running below 10% wall, country like Malaysia is only 5%. US want to reduce subsidy on biofuel to cut budget. It result in corn redundant, soften the corn and soybean price. Palm oil stock pile is increasing now, Palm oil price will drain further, may be below 2013 level. This is all the realistic problem in short term and this is why CPO price is dropping, Wilmar is dropping. Good luck to all vested.
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Lucky03
Elite |
18-Jan-2014 11:32
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Most clean energy are more costly and hence not economically competitive and compelling. The push factor is environmental protection that leaves some country with no choice for to push for its early adoption. You are right that the limit has been set at 10% max in terms of mix so far. Stil a potentially very sizable market. Will have to leave to the scientist to overcome the corrosive problem but at least some countries including Indonesia is setting the standard through legislation. After all, a car is not for a lifetime. In Spore context, if the corrosive effect is only visible longer term than 10 yrs, impact may not be as significant ? Many dealers are bringing in diesel powered models.
Brazil led the world in sugarcane production and hence Wilmar interest in Renuka in India that has acquired asset in Brazil for sugar production may be a very strategic initiative.
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earlybird14
Supreme |
18-Jan-2014 11:15
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Main market for biofuel is gasoline for car. Palm oil mainly for biodiesel and not suitable for gasoline.
Sugar cane will go straight to ethanol process. Sugar to ethanol is wasting energy. Ethanol can blend with gasoline for car but it is corrosive will damage engine. 10% is the max it can blend with. In US, ethanol is from corn. Ethanol facing big rejection due to corrosive and engine damage. Majority of ethanol company in US is under subsidy and big loss.
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gold123
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18-Jan-2014 11:02
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wilmar still looks v weak. hope come CNY can push it up ..
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Lucky03
Elite |
18-Jan-2014 10:58
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Soybean, sugar and palm oil are ingredients for biofuel. Will Wilmar turn into biofuel business big time ?
Bioenergy in China China has set the goal of attaining one percent of its renewable energy generation through bioenergy in 2020. The development of bioenergy in China is needed to meet the rising energy demand.[according to whom?] Several institutions are involved in this development, most notably the Asian Development Bank and China's Ministry of Agriculture. There is also an added incentive to develop the bioenergy sector which is to increase the development of the rural agricultural sector. As of 2005, bioenergy use has reached more than 20 million households in the rural areas, with methane gas as the main biofuel. Also more than 4000 bioenergy facilities produce 8 billion cubic metres every year of methane gas. By 2006 20% of "gasoline" consumed was actually a 10% ethanol-gasoline blend. (People's Daily Online) As of 2010, electricity generation by bioenergy is expected to reach 5 GW, and 30 GW by 2020. The annual use of methane gas is expected to be 19 cubic kilometers by 2010, and 40 cubic kilometers by 2020. China is the world's third-largest producer of ethanol, after Brazil and the United States.(RFA) Although only 0.71% of the country's grain yield (3.366 million tons of grain) in 2006 was used for production of ethanol, concern has been expressed over potential conflicts between demands for food and fuel, as crop prices rose in late 2006.[1] |
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Lucky03
Elite |
18-Jan-2014 10:55
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From Wikipedia :
A biofuel is a fuel that contains energy from geologically recent carbon fixation. These fuels are produced from living organisms. Examples of this carbon fixation occur in plants and microalgae. These fuels are made by a biomass conversion (biomass refers to recently living organisms, most often referring to plants or plant-derived materials). This biomass can be converted to convenient energy containing substances in three different ways: thermal conversion, chemical conversion, and biochemical conversion. This biomass conversion can result in fuel in solid, liquid, or gas form. This new biomass can be used for biofuels. Biofuels have increased in popularity because of rising oil prices and the need for energy security. Bioethanol is an alcohol made by fermentation, mostly from carbohydrates produced in sugar or starch crops such as corn or sugarcane. Cellulosic biomass, derived from non-food sources, such as trees and grasses, is also being developed as a feedstock for ethanol production. Ethanol can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is usually used as a gasoline additive to increase octane and improve vehicle emissions. Bioethanol is widely used in the USA and in Brazil. Current plant design does not provide for converting the lignin portion of plant raw materials to fuel components by fermentation. Biodiesel is made from vegetable oils and animal fats. Biodiesel can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is usually used as a diesel additive to reduce levels of particulates, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons from diesel-powered vehicles. Biodiesel is produced from oils or fats using transesterification and is the most common biofuel in Europe. In 2010, worldwide biofuel production reached 105 billion liters (28 billion gallons US), up 17% from 2009,[1] and biofuels provided 2.7% of the world's fuels for road transport, a contribution largely made up of ethanol and biodiesel.[citation needed] Global ethanol fuel production reached 86 billion liters (23 billion gallons US) in 2010, with the United States and Brazil as the world's top producers, accounting together for 90% of global production. The world's largest biodiesel producer is the European Union, accounting for 53% of all biodiesel production in 2010.[1] As of 2011, mandates for blending biofuels exist in 31 countries at the national level and in 29 states or provinces.[2] The International Energy Agency has a goal for biofuels to meet more than a quarter of world demand for transportation fuels by 2050 to reduce dependence on petroleum and coal.[3] |
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Lucky03
Elite |
18-Jan-2014 10:52
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China is having very bad air pollution problem and car emission is undoubtedly one of the major culprit. As part of the clean emery strategy, biodiesel is one such option for a cleaner emission, beside electric car and hybrid model. If China imposes similar condition of certain percentage of diesel with palm oil, the impact will sky rocket !
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Lucky03
Elite |
18-Jan-2014 09:55
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Below shows how difficult or impossible to follow the calls from borking houses :
UOBKH in its Jan Corporate report recommended BUY for Wilmar. Then separately suggested shorting Wilmar when it was trading at $3.31. In today's ST report on MONEY section C4, it expects Wilmar to report its Q4 result to be in line an cited that crude oil and clean energies such as natural gas may emerge as winners and recovery in crude oil prices will have positive impact on palm oil prices. CIMB recently cited Wilmar as target for shorting only to be quoted in ST Bulls and Bears daily trading report that Wilmar is CIMB Research's top picks on the plantation sector citing biodiesel usage in Indonesia picks up thereby reducing palm oil export and boost crude palm oil prices. I wondered if these analysts realizing that as a whole, the borking house is flip flopping within a short time. Fundamental can't change in days. Are they analysts or traders or speculators ?! Anyway in the report on pg C4, Citi mentioned the possibility of the return of the commodity super cycle that will see a large sustained price rise though it said they don't see an empirical basis for the argument yet. MayBank Kim Eng top pick in the plantation sector is Wilmar for strong earning visibility and low cost of debt and hence has a BUY call with a TP of $4.30. China's slowing economy has been cited as one key concern while US growth and strength in US$ cited as positive factors including recovery of crude oil prices. I feel that the Chinese economy is reshaping to be domestic consumption driven rather than overly dependent on export will actually be helpful to Wilmar's consumer brands of the golden fish brand cooking oil in the mid term. Europe recover should also be positive to stable consumption though palm oil may not be their top choice. The increased focus on biodiesel will give a big boost to palm oil prices. I'm positive on the fundamental. Any technical reading in the short term should be read with the context and backdrop of a larger macro picture. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Jan-2014 12:29
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Hi, Octavia and WanSiTong. Thanks for sharing the very useful info ! Better to have the market and analysts expecting a lower set of results and hopefult to surprise on the upside than vice versa.
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Octavia
Supreme |
17-Jan-2014 11:44
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On its upcoming 4Q13 results due 20 Feb, UOB Kay Hian expects to see substantially lower contribution from sugar milling as the bulk of the milling was done in 3Q13. Other divisions are expected to be flat qoq although plantation is likely to have better qoq earnings on higher production and ASP, while biological valuation should have little impact on earnings. Potential share price catalysts include sustainable earnings stability to rebuild investors? confidence on the counter and a strong turning point in the Chinese soybean crushing market brought about by increased utilisation¸ which will deliver sustainable margins. UOB Kay Hian maintains BUY with $4.20 TP, implying a blended PE of 13.8x 2014F. | ||||
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WanSiTong
Supreme |
17-Jan-2014 11:04
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Plantation Day - biodiesel theme Written By Stock Fanatic on Friday, January 17, 2014 ]focus on the country?s biodiesel efforts. Overall, we are more optimistic on the biodiesel programme as we gather that the biodiesel tender is not the only avenue Pertamina is pursuing to secure biodiesel to meet the higher mandate, contrary to some expectations. The government appears ready to overcome any challenges to ensure the mandate is met. We expect the second biodiesel tender results by Pertamina to show a favourable take-up rate as the pricing mechanism for biodiesel has improved. However, our Neutral stance on the sector is intact. Our top picks are First Resources, Wilmar, AALI, LSIP and Ta Ann Holdings. What Happened CIMB hosted a plantation day conference in Jakarta on Wednesday to provide investors the opportunity to hear from six industry experts on the progress and challenges facing the various stakeholders in meeting Indonesia?s higher biodiesel mandate effective 1 Jan 2014, as well as on production and fertiliser price prospects. Also at the conference were representatives from 8 plantation companies who met with investors in one-on-one and small group discussions. What We Think We are more positive on the execution of the Indonesia biodiesel mandates after the key stakeholders pledged their readiness in meeting the higher target. Recently, the market was disappointed when Pertamina revealed that it had secured only 18% of its intended target of 6.6m kl for 2014-15 during its first biodiesel tender. The good news we hear is that that the second tender is likely to attract a higher take up rate as Pertamina has improved the pricing mechanism. Also, Pertamina is willing to revert to the old pricing formula for the remaining supplies that are not tendered out and is committed to fulfilling the mandate. PLN indicated that it is making good progress in meeting its 20% mandate which is also a positive takeaway for us. If successfully executed, this could raise the biodiesel usage in Indonesia from 600k-1m kl in 2013 to around 3.3m-4m kl. This will, in turn, reduce the palm oil exports from Indonesia and boost CPO price prospects. We believe the market has not priced in the additional biodiesel demand potential from Indonesia due to concerns over pricing and logistics challenges. However, a successful tender and improved pricing for biodiesel could change market?s perception. We maintain our view that the government will raise its usage to 2m kl in 2014, lower than its target of 3.3m-4m kl. But there could be an upside surprise if it is able to secure most of the intended supply through the tender process. We keep our average CPO price forecast of RM2,700 per tonne for 2014, Neutral stance, and preference for selected planters. (Read Report) |
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interfact
Senior |
17-Jan-2014 09:02
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I think rose syrup is banned.He is using new nick guoshou. gold123 is likely one of his new clone |
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gold123
Member |
17-Jan-2014 08:15
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i think high chance of going down to $3.00
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Jan-2014 08:13
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Is higher CPO prices good or bad for Wilmar ? See OCBC report below issued on 26 Nov 2013 which has a fair value of $3.55 for Wilmar. Wilmar: Forms China corn starch JV Corn starch JV in China No immediate earnings boost Upside probably limited Forms China corn starch JV Wilmar International Limited (WIL) recently announced that it has formed a JV with Tereos Internacional called Liaoning Yihai Kerry Tereos Starch Technology Co Ltd. The move will see Tereos acquiring 49% of the JV company from WIL?s subsidiary for RMB208m the JV will engage in the operation of a corn starch facility in Tieling (Liaoning Province) with a current annual processing capacity of 700k tons of corn. According to WIL, the acquisition marks the second important step in the development of the major partnership with Tereos in the rapidly growing market for starch-based products in China. However, we do not see any immediate impact on earnings. Shares already ran up sharply Meanwhile, the recent recovery in CPO (crude palm oil) prices has lifted plantation stocks (WIL rose as much as 17% after our upgrade to Buy on 6 Sep), but we believe that some of these optimism may be overdone. For one, WIL is still a net buyer of vegetable oil (including CPO) and a continued rise of input prices could result in a margin squeeze for its consumer packs. Note that because cooking oil is an essential food item, it may also be subject to price caps should inflation in China rises faster than the government?s guidance. Secondly, the enthusiasm over the Indonesian government?s doubling of the bio-diesel mandate to 10% blend may be a bit premature. A recent Platts report suggested that the Pertamina tender may not offer as fat a profit margin as what the market is expecting. Maintain HOLD with S$3.55 fair value Currently, WIL is trading close to our unchanged fair value of S$3.55 (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS), suggesting that the stock looks fairly priced around here. From a historical perspective, we see that WIL?s valuation is already close to its 2-year average. Hence, we opt to maintain our HOLD rating. We also advocate taking profit closer to S$3.70. (Carey Wong) |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Jan-2014 07:37
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Not sure if this is a good site - http://www.palmoilhq.com/palm-oil-prices/
It shows year 2012 was bad and 2013 is generally higher than 2012 while Jan 2014 is better than Jan 2013 year on year.
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Jan-2014 07:30
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The problem I have is I'm not sure the most accurate source of such CPO prices and for year on year comparison rather than mth on mth as prices of CPO is cyclical or it is not sensible to respond on mth to mth fluctuation.
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earlybird14
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17-Jan-2014 06:44
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CPO price dropping due to high stockpile. Soybean and corn is harvest and cheap. Among soy oil, sun flower oil, corn oil and palm oil, palm oil is the last to choose in the market.
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Jan-2014 06:43
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Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Seen Climbing as Exports Drop
By Ranjeetha Pakiam December 05, 2013 5:15 AM EST Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Save Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably jumped to the highest level in eight months as exports from the world?s second-biggest producer declined for the first time since May, a Bloomberg survey showed. Futures fell. Inventories expanded 6.2 percent to 1.96 million metric tons in November from a month earlier, according to the median of six estimates from a plantation company, analysts and traders. That?s the highest since March and 24 percent less than a year earlier, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, which may release official data on Dec. 10. Exports dropped 5.4 percent to 1.57 million tons, while output fell 2.6 percent to 1.92 million tons, the survey showed. Palm oil rallied into a bull market last month and is heading for the first annual advance in three years on speculation that output from top producer Indonesia may drop for the first time since 1998. Lower supplies and Indonesia?s push for higher biodiesel usage will keep prices between 2,600 ringgit ($808) to 2,900 ringgit a ton until March, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. ?Prices will be supported at these levels because although inventories are higher, this should be the peak,? said Alan Lim Seong Chun, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. ?The increase in stockpiles was because of the drop in exports due to a lack of major festivals in the near term and also the colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere.? Seasonal Decline Reserves will decline in December as production drops seasonally, Lim said. Output of the oil used in everything from candy to biofuels is typically highest from June to October and tapers off from November due to growing cycles. Futures climbed 8.3 percent this year to 2,641 ringgit on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur after slumping a combined 36 percent in the past two years. Prices rallied to 2,692 ringgit on Nov. 22, the highest since September 2012. Indonesian output will decline by 500,000 tons to 27.5 million tons this year, before rebounding to 30.5 million tons in 2014, Mistry told a conference in Bandung, Indonesia, on Nov. 29. The retreat this year would be the first drop since 1998, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Production in Malaysia will climb to 19.4 million tons this year from 18.8 million in 2012, said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. ?Stockpiles are still much lower than a year ago and it?s still below the 2 million-ton mark,? Ng said. ?We are at the end of the high production season, so people won?t be too worried about the higher stock situation.? Output Drops Stockpiles in Malaysia have stayed below 2 million tons since April after reaching a record of 2.63 million tons in December last year. Imports were at 20,000 tons last month, unchanged from October, according to the median of five estimates. Output totaled 17.6 million tons in the first 11 months, according to official data for the first 10 months and the median estimate for November. That compared with 17 million tons a year earlier, board data showed. Exports may have fallen due to the narrowing discount to soybean oil as consumers switch to the substitute, Ng said. The spread was at $67.42 a ton on Dec. 4, compared with the average $257 this year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Nov. 2013 (Survey) Oct. 2013 (MPOB) Nov. 2012 (MPOB) Output 1.92 1.97 1.89 Stockpiles 1.96 1.85 2.57 Exports 1.57 1.66 1.66 Imports 0.02 0.02 0.08 Figures are in millions of tons. To contact the reporter on this story: Ranjeetha Pakiam in Kuala Lumpur at [email protected] To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at [email protected] |
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Lucky03
Elite |
17-Jan-2014 00:57
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Below is a month old article but it is worth noting that the emphasis or legislation on the increased use of palm oil for biodiesel may boost the demand and prices of palm oil. If you go to car showrooms these days, you will see more promotion of diesel powered cars.
Palm Exports From Indonesia Seen Climbing to 9-Month High By Yoga Rusmana and Eko Listiyorini December 16, 2013 5:14 AM EST 1 Comments Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Save Palm oil shipments by Indonesia, the world?s largest producer, probably advanced to the highest level in nine months in November as rising prices prompted exporters to boost supplies. Futures gained. Sales of palm and kernel oils rose 2.2 percent to 1.9 million tons from October, the median of estimates from five planters, traders and refiners compiled by Bloomberg showed. That?s the highest since February, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association show. Production remained at 2.4 million tons for a third month, according to four respondents. That brought output to 24.25 million tons in the first 11 months. Shippers of the world?s most consumed cooking oil are seeking to increase overseas sales after futures reached a 14-month high in Kuala Lumpur in November. Prices are heading for the first annual gain in three years on speculation Indonesian output will decline for the first time since 1998. Production may drop 500,000 tons to 27.5 million tons, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said Nov. 29. ?Producers tried to boost exports after prices gained and shipments will remain high in December? as companies must meet contracts, said Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board. He forecasts output of 2.2 million tons in December. That brings the total for the year to 26.45 million tons when added to the number in the Bloomberg surveys. Prices Climb Futures advanced 5.4 percent this year to 2,570 ringgit ($793) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today after reaching 2,692 ringgit on Nov. 22, the highest since September 2012. Palm may average 2,625 ringgit a ton in the second quarter, Rabobank International estimates. India, the biggest buyer, imported 550,663 tons in November from 534,556 tons a year earlier, according to the Solvent Extractors? Association of India. Purchases by China, the second-biggest importer, would reach 550,000 tons in December after 500,000 tons in November, a survey showed last week. While the Indonesian association doesn?t publish inventory and output data, it may release export figures this week. The changes in output and reserves are derived from earlier surveys. The figure for output in 2013 compares with Bangun?s Nov. 29 estimate of 26.2 million tons. Production will be 26.5 million tons this year from 27 million tons in 2012, according to the median of five grower estimates compiled by Bloomberg last month. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts a crop of 28.5 million tons. Biodiesel Demand Reserves probably rose 2.9 percent to 2.1 million tons in November from a month earlier and may decline to 2 million tons by the end of the year, according to estimates from four producers and refiners. Supplies will shrink as the country increases the use of palm-based biodiesel, said Sahat Sinaga, executive director at the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association, who forecasts that exports and reserves may drop to 1.7 million tons and 1.5 million tons in December. Indonesia raised in September the amount of palm-derived biodiesel that producers must blend into subsidized fuel to 10 percent from 7.5 percent. The requirement will be extended to non-subsidized fuel and industrial users in January and power plants will be obliged to use supply with a 20 percent blend. A third of output may be used in fuel in one or two years if the government is consistent in applying the policy, Mahendra Siregar, head of the Investment Coordinating Board, said last month. About 3 percent of the crop is used as fuel now, according to the Indonesian Biofuels Producers Association. Yield Gains Global biofuel demand may expand on larger mandates from Southeast Asia to South America and boost vegetable oil prices, according to Mistry, who expects palm oil production in Indonesia to rebound to 30.5 million tons in 2014. Output will recover next year to 29.5 million tons as yields increase and new areas mature, Bangun said last month. Exports will be about 18 million tons in 2014 and may drop significantly in the next few years as more supplies are used for biodiesel output. ?Undoubtedly, biodiesel programs are among the strongest bullish drivers for palm prices in 2014,? Rabobank analysts led by Luke Chandler in Sydney, said in a report e-mailed last week. ?Delays in implementing these mandates and a decline in crude oil prices could dampen the impact of these programs and reduce bullishness,? said the bank. |
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Itachi
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17-Jan-2014 00:37
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Limbei don't really read metal posting, but limbei appreciate it if you guys could leave him alone. If you think an opinion is good you take, otherwise just move on. There is no need for personal attack.
Don't make limbei repeat myself, limbei just want to read news. Want to mess around, go kindergarten. |
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