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NOL
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sgng123
Supreme |
01-Jan-2014 18:46
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depend on top 3 players behaviour, once P3 start to operate excess capacity might be taken off or charter retired to gain economy scale of saving. The idea of sharing vessels in alliance are purely for cost saving and anti competition purpose. Shippers are whining a lot before P3 is even allowed by FMC due to the fact that stability most likely returned to freight rate once p3 alliance is confirmed. No more below operating cost rate for exporter and their shipping cost would go back to normal level and their profit margin would be squeezed. But if US economy explode into high growth gear then might see a year of demand exceeding capacity then stabilise in 2015. Not much downside for shipping in 2014 since last year is the trough session . what happen to ship share price depend on how US economy performed in 4Q13 and 1Q14 since contract rate renewed at May. Strong US GDP numbers would boost chance of higher rate while weak growth would meant similar rate in 2013. BTW another GRI 500 for Asia - Europe in Jan -Feb period announced. | ||||
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pseudo
Member |
01-Jan-2014 16:34
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Dont count on capacity being absorbed. Thats a long shot. Demand and supply cant be beat. 2014 will be more of the same toxic price war.
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Jan-2014 15:52
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Is the following statement below by JOC true and the capacity will actually be released into market, held back or simply to replace the older ships that are more inefficient and hence phased out such that overall capacity may not increased as much but more cost effective now and helpful for improving bottomline ? Thought that was what being highlighted in some of the earlier articles in JOC. Guess they do published articles by different reporter and analyst and they may not agree with each other.
Alphaliner: New Container Ship Deliveries to Drive Record Capacity in 2014 JOC Staff | Dec 31, 2013 10:30AM EST Seventeen of the Top 20 container carriers worldwide are expecting deliveries of new ships in the next 12 months, which could make 2014 a record-breaking year for capacity... |
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Jan-2014 15:43
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The last time NOL has a run of about 7 white candle stick bars was around the brief rally in Jan 2013. It has about 7 white candle sticks since it rised from 1.06 and stochastic nearing similar high of near 90 when it may encounter some resistance. If so, it may probably take a short breather to 1.08-1.09. Will be a good opportunity to pick up some if it happens for a longer term recovery. | ||||
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ascend88
Master |
01-Jan-2014 11:25
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Full steam ahead in 2014 | ||||
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williamyeo
Veteran |
30-Dec-2013 16:54
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reached 1.13
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Lucky03
Elite |
30-Dec-2013 16:38
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Hitting 1.13
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ascend88
Master |
30-Dec-2013 16:12
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reached....slowly....slowly....
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Lucky03
Elite |
30-Dec-2013 15:51
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I thought volume quite healthy based on last few months stats. Yep, important to enjoy CNY so selling some that I collected around 1.04-1.05 into the current strength.
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sgng123
Supreme |
30-Dec-2013 15:19
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low volume most likely short covering before year end. waiting for bb movement and more us economy data out on 4q13 before jumping in. btw enjoy cny celebration. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
30-Dec-2013 15:04
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Very strong. May hit 1.12 today. | ||||
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sgng123
Supreme |
28-Dec-2013 16:56
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if us economy grows more than 3% ( 4% maybe) prepare for nol return to index composite. Currently STI 30 stock components too many are REIT which are not good indicator of economy and explain why our market sucks compare to other market in SE asia cos component stocks sucks. Need those cyclical stocks to be reinstated back to STi to give it the boost needed to breach 4000. Cyclical plays may be the theme which fund managers speculates in 2014 due to recovering US economy and as usual US economy can and will surprise heavily on the upside. Too much cash flushing in market with no where to go but speculation lol. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Dec-2013 14:58
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Fundamental aside, the daily chart has shot past the 200D MA last seen when the price shot up to 1.35 and briefly in Sep when it jumped to 1.15. Both times, the MACD rises above 0. The pattern is similar now and let's see if NOL will have some steam pushing it up to either 1.15 or 1.35 or even higher ! | ||||
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banana
Member |
27-Dec-2013 15:53
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Yes
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BMW320
Member |
27-Dec-2013 15:24
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May history repeated itself. I see tdy a good day to pick up some good stocks which have been lagging. The noble and nol boat are moving with some help of year end dressing. Hope it will sail from here.
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sgng123
Supreme |
27-Dec-2013 14:17
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Soon low freight rate would not dent NOL profit margin once fleet renewal is completed. The reduction in operating cost is estimated to be around 15-20% which would greatly enhance ship competiveness. Plus now all long haul trade lanes is covered by G6 alliance = high load factor resulting in less ships being used. If oil price tank in 2014 due to Iran sanction removal another 5% reduction in operating cost expected which may flow into 2015 contract. But the most important thing to look out for is US GDP number for 4Q13 and 1Q14, if the number crushed market expectation then ship would rocket due to big explosure to US market. Come to think this world economy is very weird 2 years of easy money policy and economy only managed to struggle might mean consumers are holding out due to political uncertainty in US and Europe. The unleashed of built up demand would lead to very strong recovery in 2014 stabilising into 2015. | ||||
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stevenk
Senior |
27-Dec-2013 13:22
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I believe so.
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Lucky03
Elite |
27-Dec-2013 12:29
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Will NOL repeats the same pattern when it shot from 1.13 to 1.35 during the period from 26 Dec 2012 to 11 Jan 2013 ?
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Lucky03
Elite |
27-Dec-2013 12:18
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The chart is looking very positive now with most indicators turning positive in the short term. Should see it breaking above 1.12 but see likely resistance around 1.14-1.16 in the short term before going for 1.30. May not double so quickly unless the financial results impressed the market or indeed global trade recovers strongly and propelled the freight rate.
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pnuklis
Master |
27-Dec-2013 11:38
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There is no good reason for this share to move. Boxships charter rates are down and the yard stick of this industry is down and there is no reason for this share to move up. My prediction is it will stay around S$1.00 | ||||
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