1Q26 Business Update: Sequential growth points to healthy underlying demand

• Soft y/y volume is largely a function of a high comparison base rather than a material slowdown in underlying demand 
• Full-year growth outlook remains intact, supported by ASP and volume growth
• Secured regulatory approval for Verdye in Singapore, and is pursuing approvals in 20 additional markets
• Maintain BUY with TP USD2.00

Soft y/y volume is largely a function of a high comparison base, while sequential growth points to healthy underlying demand.  1Q26 volumes stood at 280.9k vials (-8.7% y/y, +7.8% q/q, roughly 25% of our FY26 volume estimates), following an exceptionally strong 1Q25 when backlog fulfilment lifted shipments after earlier supply chain disruptions from June to October 2024 caused by a supply shortage at Ultragreen&rsquo s contract manufacturer. US volumes declined 20.3% y/y given the high base, while non-US volumes rose 25.7% y/y off a small base, as RoW sales were deprioritised last year in favour of higher-ASP shipments to the Americas. On a sequential basis, volumes grew 3.1% in US and 18.1% in non-US markets, indicating that core demand continued to grow from a normalised base in 4Q25. While no revenue figures were provided in this business update, we believe the higher average selling price in 1Q26 relative to 1Q25 likely offset the y/y volume decline, leaving revenue broadly flattish. In our view, Ultragreen is likely tracking its revenue guidance of USD170&ndash 190mn (+26% y/y) given that it typically has limited seasonality. Overall, we view 1Q26 as more reflective of base effects than any material slowdown in underlying demand. Ultragreen also announced regulatory approval for Verdye in Singapore, a key regional reference point for clinical adoption across Southeast Asia. This expands its regulatory coverage to 41 countries. Approvals are being pursued in c.20 additional markets across Asia and the Middle East, which should further strengthen Ultragreen&rsquo s moat and support its regional expansion strategy.
 
Full-year growth outlook remains intact, supported by ASP and volume growth.  We believe Ultragreen is well positioned to meet its revenue target, reflecting the annualisation of higher average selling prices and continued volume growth as ICG adoption expands across procedures. Looking ahead on a quarterly basis, we continue to expect some noise, with 3Q26 likely to show stronger headline y/y growth off a low base, as the softer prior-year quarter reflected a transitional period during the switch from the legacy ICG USP product to IC-GREEN, which took time to fully bed into hospital procurement and distribution systems. In the longer term, Ultragreen remains well positioned to benefit from rising ICG adoption, supported by strong ecosystem growth. Clinical trials have increased 38% since FY23, peer-reviewed publications are up 16% year on year in 2025, and the installed base of robotic systems has tripled between 2015 and 2025. Separately, management highlighted progress in diversifying its lyophilisation network, having expanded from two contractors previously to four currently, with an additional supplier under qualification. This should reduce concentration risk and better support future demand growth. Maintain BUY with TP USD2.00.