1. Existing shares: Geo Energy had about 1.74 billion shares outstanding.
2. New shares issued: Two placements of 15 million each = 30 million shares.
3. New total shares:  1.74B + 30M = 1.77B 
4. Dilution factor:
   1.77B divide by 1.74B = ~ 1.017 
   That is a 1.7% increase in the share base.

Applying to EPS

💵 Cash Flow Figures (FY2025)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

• Net cash from operating activities: US$72.9M
• Driven by strong coal sales volume and lower cash costs, but reduced by higher tax payments.

Investing Cash Flow

• Net cash used in investing activities: US$(106.2M)
• Heavy outflows for MBJ infrastructure project and acquisitions of TMP & BSM shipping/logistics firms.

Financing Cash Flow

• Net cash from financing activities: US$20.3M
• Primarily from increased borrowings to fund expansion.

📈 Free Cash Flow (FCF)

• OCF: US$72.9M
• Capex/Investing Outflows: US$(106.2M)
• FCF: &asymp US$(33.3M)

🔮 Interpretation

• Negative FCF in FY2025, reflecting the investment-heavy cycle.
• The company relied on debt financing (+US$20.3M net inflow) to support expansion.
• Cash balance fell to US$105.1M (from US$118.1M), showing pressure on liquidity.
• Once MBJ completes (expected June 2026), logistics savings and toll revenue could swing FCF positive.

📊 Key Facts from the Announcement

• Date:  2 April 2026
• Shares Offered:  Up to 35,000,000 new shares
• Issue Price:  S$0.525 (&asymp 3.1% discount to VWAP of S$0.542, &asymp 1.9% discount to closing price of S$0.535)
• Gross Proceeds:  ~S$18.375 million
• Net Proceeds:  ~S$17.775 million (after fees/expenses)
• Dilution:  ~2% of existing share base (from 1.743 billion to 1.779 billion shares)
• Use of Proceeds:  100% for working capital

📈 Likely Impact on Share Price Next Week

• 
  
  Short-term pressure:
  • Placements at a discount often lead to selling pressure as arbitrageurs and new investors lock in gains.
  • The ~2% dilution plus discount could anchor trading closer to  S$0.525 to 0.535.
• 
  
  Market perception:
  • If investors view the placement as strengthening liquidity and supporting operations, downside may be limited.
  • The fact that proceeds are earmarked for  working capital  (not expansion or debt repayment) may raise questions about cash flow needs.
• 
  
  Technical levels:
  • The placement price (S$0.525) becomes a  near-term support level.
  • Resistance likely remains around  S$0.54 to 0.55, the pre-placement VWAP.

⚠ ️ Risks & Considerations

• Dilution:  EPS falls from 2.42 SG cents to 2.36 SG cents (pro forma).
• Execution risk:  Placement is not underwritten if demand is weak, sentiment could sour.
• Sector volatility:  Coal prices and energy transition policies remain external risks.

📌 Takeaway

• Subscription strength  (if fully subscribed, confidence improves).
• Trading volume spikes  (short-term volatility).
• Company updates  on deployment of funds (clarity on working capital use could reassure investors).