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Latest Forum Topics / UOB    Last:38.31    -0.49  Post Reply
UOB
pasttime
Supreme
24-Jan-2026 09:14     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		while one cannot stop the market activities including short selling. the rule must be fair.
in hkex they have tick rule which does not permit short seller to sell below current best ask price.
they also have an open ownership system where one can monitor and see share ownership changes 
after t+2.   
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luke2021
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23-Jan-2026 20:51     
 
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 Alert Admin 		What to do. Open market. Just like at ocean very hard to control big shark or whale from swallowing small fishes and shrimps.

Flow behind them will do.

pasttime      ( Date: 23-Jan-2026 19:19) Posted:

this bank also benefits from short covering. maybe ng fortunte after distributed to the sons.
suddenly all very rich so they start buy back their own shares causing shorty to run road.
more to come. win more to fried the shorty.
by the way i am not against shorts. only aganst the big shorts who used their financial strength to do
scoop and dump (modified form) and some times direct one. sgx not monitoring illegal activities enough,.
these foreign fund taking us for a ride. very bad for long term development of sgx.  5b is nothing.
they wait for stock price up then do the same over again.
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pasttime
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23-Jan-2026 19:19     
 
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Yells: "gold silver are real money. not others iou."
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 Alert Admin 		this bank also benefits from short covering. maybe ng fortunte after distributed to the sons.
suddenly all very rich so they start buy back their own shares causing shorty to run road.
more to come. win more to fried the shorty.
by the way i am not against shorts. only aganst the big shorts who used their financial strength to do
scoop and dump (modified form) and some times direct one. sgx not monitoring illegal activities enough,.
these foreign fund taking us for a ride. very bad for long term development of sgx.  5b is nothing.
they wait for stock price up then do the same over again.
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luke2021
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23-Jan-2026 17:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Today instantly up 5% within a day.
For godsake.
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huattuatua
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23-Jan-2026 13:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		even buying at the opening ox now also make more than 1 buck in profits, the power of anal-yst upgrade😛
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Joelton
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23-Jan-2026 13:15     
 
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UOB jumps 2% as market rises Macquarie upgrades stock
It has potential for a &lsquo relative-value catch-up play&rsquo , with headwinds set to abate this earnings season
 
[SINGAPORE] Shares of   UOB   : U11 +1.9% rose on Thursday (Jan 22) after Macquarie upgraded its call on the lender and raised its target price.
The counter climbed 2.3 per cent or S$0.83 to S$37.60 in early trade, hitting a nine-month high. The last time UOB shares traded higher was in April 2025, ShareInvestor data showed. 
 
As at 3.18 pm, the counter was trading at S$37.51, still up by 2 per cent, with close to four million shares changing hands. 
 
In a Wednesday note, Macquarie analyst Jayden Vantarakis upgraded UOB to an &ldquo outperform&rdquo rating and lifted its target price to S$41, being 11.5 per cent over its latest closing price of S$36.77.  
 
Vantarakis sees a potential &ldquo relative-value catch-up play&rdquo for UOB as headwinds are expected to abate this earnings season. 
 
&ldquo Seasonal trends are a headwind for non-interest income. Lower rates are a double-edged sword, pressuring revenues in FY2026 but benefiting valuations,&rdquo he said. 
 
Vantarakis highlighted that loan volumes have risen, as the latest banking statistics from the Monetary Authority of Singapore in November reflect a &ldquo sustained pickup in lending&rdquo . This comes as interest rates are expected to continue trending downwards on Singapore dollar strength and US dollar weakness. 
 
&ldquo Whilst we expect some slowdown (for loan volume) in FY2026 to reflect front-loading impacts for manufacturing and exports, this sets a positive base for (the year&rsquo s estimated) loan momentum,&rdquo he said. 
 
Vantakaris forecasts UOB&rsquo s quarterly provisions normalising after taking large one-off provisions in the third quarter, given that the bank has topped up allowances and as rate movements should be &ldquo marginally supportive of collateral values&rdquo . 
 
Macquarie noted that quarter-on-quarter momentum for Q4 FY2025&rsquo s estimated profit after tax and minority interests could be affected by how Singapore banks have recorded lower trading and other non-interest income over the past five years, but UOB could benefit from a lower base in Q3 FY2025. 
 
While major US banks recently reported a quarter-on-quarter decline in overall wealth assets by 2 per cent, Singapore banks are expected to do better on wealth asset under management inflows, he added, given that the relative &ldquo safe-haven&rdquo status of the city-state&rsquo s banking sector.  
 
However, earnings growth is expected to remain lacklustre in FY2026, which may present headwinds, Vantakaris said. 
 
UOB will be releasing its full-year financial results for FY2025 on Feb 24.
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Joelton
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16-Jan-2026 13:09     
 
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UOB prices S$850 million perpetual securities at 3%
The issue date of the securities is expected to be Jan 21
 
[SINGAPORE] UOB has priced S$850 million in perpetual capital securities at 3 per cent under its US$30 billion Global Medium Term Note Programme, the bank announced on Wednesday (Jan 14). 
 
The issue date of the securities is expected to be Jan 21, and the securities are first callable in 2033.
 
The rate is subject to a reset on Jan 21, 2033, and every seven years thereafter, to a rate equal to the prevailing seven-year Singapore Overnight Rate Average Overnight Indexed Swap plus the initial spread of 0.94 per cent.
 
The securities were priced at 100 per cent of their principal amount.
 
The securities are perpetual but may be redeemed at the option of the bank on the first reset date in 2033, or on any distribution payment date thereafter. 
 
Distributions are payable semi-annually in arrears and are non-cumulative.
 
UOB is the sole coordinator for the issuance. It is also a joint lead manager and joint bookrunner along with Citigroup Global Markets Singapore.
 
The securities are expected to be rated &ldquo Baa1&rdquo by Moody&rsquo s Investors Service and &ldquo BBB+&rdquo by Fitch Ratings, the bank said. 
 
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sfw2124
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27-Dec-2025 11:53     
 
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FY2026 GUIDANCE &ndash The Critical Promise



What UOB Management Said (in Q3 earnings call, Aug 2025):


" We expect credit costs in FY2026 to NORMALIZE to 25-30 basis points"


What This Means in Simple Terms:


  • We (UOB management) took a S$615m precautionary hit in Q3 2025


  • We believe that was sufficient / overly cautious


  • Going forward, credit costs will normalize back to 25-30 bps (typical/expected level)


  • This means the provision buffer we built will NOT be needed


  • Result:  In FY2026, instead of releasing S$615m, we' ll reverse/release SOME of that provision


  • This provision RELEASE will boost FY2026 earnings


The Mathematical Certainty (Why It' s Called " Certain" ):
Component FY2025 Actual FY2026 Expected Impact
Operating profit (before provisions) S$1.9b S$1.8-1.9b Moderate headwind (NIM compression)
Credit costs/Provisions 134 bps (abnormal) 25-30 bps (normalized) +100-110 bps improvement  ✅
Net profit calculation S$1.76b (9M) S$2.0-2.2b (est FY26) 15-25% earnings growth  ✅


Why This Is " Mathematically Certain" :


  1. The S$615m was already taken (it' s done no longer an earnings headwind)


  2. Management explicitly committed to 25-30bps normalized credit costs (public guidance)


  3. If macro doesn' t deteriorate further, the earnings swing is AUTOMATIC and GUARANTEED


  4. It doesn' t depend on revenue growth or business improvement&mdash just on provision normalization


sfw2124      ( Date: 27-Dec-2025 11:46) Posted:

UOB BULL CASE EXPLAINED: WHAT DOES " PROVISIONS CONFIRMED" MEAN?

Simple Explanation with Real Examples



Analysis Date:  27 December 2025
Your Question:  What is the Bull Case? What does " Provisions Confirmed" mean?

PART 1: UNDERSTANDING " PROVISIONS" &ndash THE BANKING CONCEPT

What Are Provisions? (Simple Explanation)



Imagine you' re a bank lending money to borrowers:

A bank knows that NOT ALL borrowers will repay their loans. Some will default. So the bank sets aside money in advance to cover expected losses. This " set-aside money" is called a  PROVISION.

Real-World Example:


  • A bank lends S$1 billion to customers


  • History shows 1% of loans default (S$10 million)


  • The bank sets aside S$10 million to cover expected losses


  • This S$10 million is a " provision"


When a bank INCREASES provisions, what happens?


  • The bank is saying: " We' re setting aside MORE money because we think MORE loans will default"


  • This money comes out of current-year earnings


  • Result:  Lower reported profit (even though actual business may be fine)


When a bank REVERSES/RELEASES provisions, what happens?


  • The bank is saying: " We no longer need this extra safety buffer credit quality has improved"


  • This money goes BACK INTO earnings


  • Result:  Higher reported profit (from releasing cash that was set aside)

UOB' s Specific Provision Situation (Q3 2025)



What UOB Did (July-August 2025):


  • UOB took a  S$615 MILLION PRE-EMPTIVE GENERAL PROVISION


  • This was on TOP of normal, expected provisions


  • Why?  Management was being cautious about potential credit losses (US property weakness, China slowdown)


  • Impact on Earnings:  This provision reduced Q3 net profit by S$615m


  • Q3 Result:  Net profit collapsed 72% (from S$1.61bn to S$443m)


What This Means:


  • UOB' s Q3 earnings looked TERRIBLE (72% drop)


  • BUT:  The drop was NOT because of bad business performance


  • The drop was VOLUNTARY & PRE-EMPTIVE:  UOB chose to over-provision for safety


  • Think of it like: " We' re putting extra money in the piggy bank just in case"


The Banking Math:


  • Normal expected credit costs: ~25-30 basis points (bps) of loan book


  • UOB' s Q3 actual credit costs: 134 bps (= 100-110 bps EXTRA due to pre-emptive provision)


  • The 100-110 bps swing is the key point:  This swing is one-time, non-recurring


JurongW      ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 16:11) Posted:

Thanks for the comprehensive summary.

If UOB trades conservatively to P/B 1.4x in 2026, then share price should be around $40.50 (15.5% return excluding dividend yield of 5%
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sfw2124
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27-Dec-2025 11:46     
 
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UOB BULL CASE EXPLAINED: WHAT DOES " PROVISIONS CONFIRMED" MEAN?

Simple Explanation with Real Examples



Analysis Date:  27 December 2025
Your Question:  What is the Bull Case? What does " Provisions Confirmed" mean?

PART 1: UNDERSTANDING " PROVISIONS" &ndash THE BANKING CONCEPT

What Are Provisions? (Simple Explanation)



Imagine you' re a bank lending money to borrowers:

A bank knows that NOT ALL borrowers will repay their loans. Some will default. So the bank sets aside money in advance to cover expected losses. This " set-aside money" is called a  PROVISION.

Real-World Example:


  • A bank lends S$1 billion to customers


  • History shows 1% of loans default (S$10 million)


  • The bank sets aside S$10 million to cover expected losses


  • This S$10 million is a " provision"


When a bank INCREASES provisions, what happens?


  • The bank is saying: " We' re setting aside MORE money because we think MORE loans will default"


  • This money comes out of current-year earnings


  • Result:  Lower reported profit (even though actual business may be fine)


When a bank REVERSES/RELEASES provisions, what happens?


  • The bank is saying: " We no longer need this extra safety buffer credit quality has improved"


  • This money goes BACK INTO earnings


  • Result:  Higher reported profit (from releasing cash that was set aside)

UOB' s Specific Provision Situation (Q3 2025)



What UOB Did (July-August 2025):


  • UOB took a  S$615 MILLION PRE-EMPTIVE GENERAL PROVISION


  • This was on TOP of normal, expected provisions


  • Why?  Management was being cautious about potential credit losses (US property weakness, China slowdown)


  • Impact on Earnings:  This provision reduced Q3 net profit by S$615m


  • Q3 Result:  Net profit collapsed 72% (from S$1.61bn to S$443m)


What This Means:


  • UOB' s Q3 earnings looked TERRIBLE (72% drop)


  • BUT:  The drop was NOT because of bad business performance


  • The drop was VOLUNTARY & PRE-EMPTIVE:  UOB chose to over-provision for safety


  • Think of it like: " We' re putting extra money in the piggy bank just in case"


The Banking Math:


  • Normal expected credit costs: ~25-30 basis points (bps) of loan book


  • UOB' s Q3 actual credit costs: 134 bps (= 100-110 bps EXTRA due to pre-emptive provision)


  • The 100-110 bps swing is the key point:  This swing is one-time, non-recurring


JurongW      ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 16:11) Posted:

Thanks for the comprehensive summary.

If UOB trades conservatively to P/B 1.4x in 2026, then share price should be around $40.50 (15.5% return excluding dividend yield of 5%)

sfw2124      ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 15:34) Posted:

Executive Summary: Singapore Big Three Banks 2026-2028 Tactical Analysis



Updated Pricing: December 26, 2025, 3:27 PM

Investment Recommendation:  BUY UOB (U11)

Core Thesis (One Sentence)



UOB is entering a mathematically-certain earnings recovery cycle in 2026 driven by provision normalization&mdash offering 11-15% annualized returns over 2-3 years at a 40-85% valuation discount to peers, while OCBC and DBS offer only 6-10% with less visibility or higher risk.

Why UOB Wins



The Catalyst: UOB took a one-off S$615M provision in Q3 2025 (abnormal 82 bps credit costs). Management commits FY2026 credit costs will normalize to 25-30 bps&mdash a  mathematical guarantee of 15-25% earnings recovery  independent of revenue growth.

Current Opportunity (Dec 26, 2025):


  • Price: S$35.05 (excellent entry timing)


  • Valuation: P/B 1.21x (cheapest) P/E 10.07x


  • Target 2027: S$38-42 =  8-20% upside


  • Dividend: 5.0-5.4% annually


  • Total 2-3 Year Return:  8-12% annualized  (3-7% capital appreciation + 5% dividend)


Why Market Missed It:


  • Analyst consensus target S$34.42 ignores recovery thesis


  • Market focus on Q3 weakness blinds them to FY2026 earnings rebound


  • Management buyback at S$34-35 signals internal conviction this is undervalued


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JurongW
Elite
26-Dec-2025 16:11     
 
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Yells: "Earnings give weight, Chart give wings"
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 Alert Admin 		Thanks for the comprehensive summary.

If UOB trades conservatively to P/B 1.4x in 2026, then share price should be around $40.50 (15.5% return excluding dividend yield of 5%)

sfw2124      ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 15:34) Posted:

Executive Summary: Singapore Big Three Banks 2026-2028 Tactical Analysis



Updated Pricing: December 26, 2025, 3:27 PM

Investment Recommendation:  BUY UOB (U11)

Core Thesis (One Sentence)



UOB is entering a mathematically-certain earnings recovery cycle in 2026 driven by provision normalization&mdash offering 11-15% annualized returns over 2-3 years at a 40-85% valuation discount to peers, while OCBC and DBS offer only 6-10% with less visibility or higher risk.

Why UOB Wins



The Catalyst: UOB took a one-off S$615M provision in Q3 2025 (abnormal 82 bps credit costs). Management commits FY2026 credit costs will normalize to 25-30 bps&mdash a  mathematical guarantee of 15-25% earnings recovery  independent of revenue growth.

Current Opportunity (Dec 26, 2025):


  • Price: S$35.05 (excellent entry timing)


  • Valuation: P/B 1.21x (cheapest) P/E 10.07x


  • Target 2027: S$38-42 =  8-20% upside


  • Dividend: 5.0-5.4% annually


  • Total 2-3 Year Return:  8-12% annualized  (3-7% capital appreciation + 5% dividend)


Why Market Missed It:


  • Analyst consensus target S$34.42 ignores recovery thesis


  • Market focus on Q3 weakness blinds them to FY2026 earnings rebound


  • Management buyback at S$34-35 signals internal conviction this is undervalued


sfw2124      ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 15:32) Posted:

Comparative Returns Table (UPDATED PRICES)

Metric UOB OCBC DBS
Current Price S$35.05 S$19.77 S$56.11
P/B Ratio 1.21x 1.48x 2.27x
FY2026 EPS Growth +15-25% +3-5% +2-4%
Price Target 2027 S$38-42 S$21-23 S$57-63
Capital Appreciation 8-20% 2-16% 2-12%
Dividend Yield 5.0-5.4% 4.89% 4.97%
Annualized Total Return 8-12% 6-10% 5-8%
Primary Catalyst Provision normalization (confirmed) Capital return policy (uncertain) Dividend consistency (mature)
Valuation Risk Low Moderate HIGH
Recommendation BUY Hold AVOID

2026-2028 Earnings Breakdown

UOB: Recovery Play ✓ RECOMMENDED



  • FY2026: +15-25% earnings growth (provision normalization floor 25-30 bps)


  • FY2027-28: +5-8% growth (normalized + Citi integration synergies)


  • Dividend: 50% payout ratio maintained DPS S$0.82-0.93 FY26


  • Capital Support: S$2B buyback through 2027 (2-3% annual EPS accretion)


  • Entry: S$35.05 optimal 


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sfw2124
Senior
26-Dec-2025 15:34     
 
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Executive Summary: Singapore Big Three Banks 2026-2028 Tactical Analysis



Updated Pricing: December 26, 2025, 3:27 PM

Investment Recommendation:  BUY UOB (U11)

Core Thesis (One Sentence)



UOB is entering a mathematically-certain earnings recovery cycle in 2026 driven by provision normalization&mdash offering 11-15% annualized returns over 2-3 years at a 40-85% valuation discount to peers, while OCBC and DBS offer only 6-10% with less visibility or higher risk.

Why UOB Wins



The Catalyst: UOB took a one-off S$615M provision in Q3 2025 (abnormal 82 bps credit costs). Management commits FY2026 credit costs will normalize to 25-30 bps&mdash a  mathematical guarantee of 15-25% earnings recovery  independent of revenue growth.

Current Opportunity (Dec 26, 2025):


  • Price: S$35.05 (excellent entry timing)


  • Valuation: P/B 1.21x (cheapest) P/E 10.07x


  • Target 2027: S$38-42 =  8-20% upside


  • Dividend: 5.0-5.4% annually


  • Total 2-3 Year Return:  8-12% annualized  (3-7% capital appreciation + 5% dividend)


Why Market Missed It:


  • Analyst consensus target S$34.42 ignores recovery thesis


  • Market focus on Q3 weakness blinds them to FY2026 earnings rebound


  • Management buyback at S$34-35 signals internal conviction this is undervalued


sfw2124      ( Date: 26-Dec-2025 15:32) Posted:

Comparative Returns Table (UPDATED PRICES)

Metric UOB OCBC DBS
Current Price S$35.05 S$19.77 S$56.11
P/B Ratio 1.21x 1.48x 2.27x
FY2026 EPS Growth +15-25% +3-5% +2-4%
Price Target 2027 S$38-42 S$21-23 S$57-63
Capital Appreciation 8-20% 2-16% 2-12%
Dividend Yield 5.0-5.4% 4.89% 4.97%
Annualized Total Return 8-12% 6-10% 5-8%
Primary Catalyst Provision normalization (confirmed) Capital return policy (uncertain) Dividend consistency (mature)
Valuation Risk Low Moderate HIGH
Recommendation BUY Hold AVOID

2026-2028 Earnings Breakdown

UOB: Recovery Play ✓ RECOMMENDED



  • FY2026: +15-25% earnings growth (provision normalization floor 25-30 bps)


  • FY2027-28: +5-8% growth (normalized + Citi integration synergies)


  • Dividend: 50% payout ratio maintained DPS S$0.82-0.93 FY26


  • Capital Support: S$2B buyback through 2027 (2-3% annual EPS accretion)


  • Entry: S$35.05 optimal 


sfw2124      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 22:27) Posted:

2025 DOMINATES ALL SGX COMPANIES(Share BuyBacks)

Rank Company 2025 YTD Spending Avg Price
1 UOB S$560.8m S$35.39
2 DBS S$371.1m S$42.77
3 OCBC S$349.0m S$16.67
4 Keppel S$70.0m S$8.39
5 Sembcorp S$59.0m S$6.05
 
 


UOB leads all SGX companies by 51% despite smaller market cap​

WHAT THIS TELLS YOU



✓   Management Confidence: Buying aggressively at 1.2x P/B while DBS trades 2.3x
✓   Capital Strength: S$2B buyback + 6.5% dividend maintained despite Q3 provision = underlying business is STRONG
✓   EPS Accretion: ~2-3% annual EPS growth just from reduced share count​
✓   Undervaluation Signal: Management sees value that market is missing
✓   Total Return Potential: 6.5% dividend + 2-3% buyback accretion + 15-21% capital gain = 24-30% over 18 months​

KEY INSIGHT



2025' s 9x acceleration in buybacks (S$658.5m vs S$102m in 2024)  coincides PRECISELY with:


  • Q3 provision announcement (Nov 6 selloff)


  • Asset management sale review (Dec 17)


  • Stock hitting S$34.00 support level


This is NOT panic buying. This is management saying: " At these prices, our shares represent exceptional value."


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sfw2124
Senior
26-Dec-2025 15:32     
 
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Comparative Returns Table (UPDATED PRICES)

Metric UOB OCBC DBS
Current Price S$35.05 S$19.77 S$56.11
P/B Ratio 1.21x 1.48x 2.27x
FY2026 EPS Growth +15-25% +3-5% +2-4%
Price Target 2027 S$38-42 S$21-23 S$57-63
Capital Appreciation 8-20% 2-16% 2-12%
Dividend Yield 5.0-5.4% 4.89% 4.97%
Annualized Total Return 8-12% 6-10% 5-8%
Primary Catalyst Provision normalization (confirmed) Capital return policy (uncertain) Dividend consistency (mature)
Valuation Risk Low Moderate HIGH
Recommendation BUY Hold AVOID

2026-2028 Earnings Breakdown

UOB: Recovery Play ✓ RECOMMENDED



  • FY2026: +15-25% earnings growth (provision normalization floor 25-30 bps)


  • FY2027-28: +5-8% growth (normalized + Citi integration synergies)


  • Dividend: 50% payout ratio maintained DPS S$0.82-0.93 FY26


  • Capital Support: S$2B buyback through 2027 (2-3% annual EPS accretion)


  • Entry: S$35.05 optimal 


sfw2124      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 22:27) Posted:

2025 DOMINATES ALL SGX COMPANIES(Share BuyBacks)

Rank Company 2025 YTD Spending Avg Price
1 UOB S$560.8m S$35.39
2 DBS S$371.1m S$42.77
3 OCBC S$349.0m S$16.67
4 Keppel S$70.0m S$8.39
5 Sembcorp S$59.0m S$6.05
 
 


UOB leads all SGX companies by 51% despite smaller market cap​

WHAT THIS TELLS YOU



✓   Management Confidence: Buying aggressively at 1.2x P/B while DBS trades 2.3x
✓   Capital Strength: S$2B buyback + 6.5% dividend maintained despite Q3 provision = underlying business is STRONG
✓   EPS Accretion: ~2-3% annual EPS growth just from reduced share count​
✓   Undervaluation Signal: Management sees value that market is missing
✓   Total Return Potential: 6.5% dividend + 2-3% buyback accretion + 15-21% capital gain = 24-30% over 18 months​

KEY INSIGHT



2025' s 9x acceleration in buybacks (S$658.5m vs S$102m in 2024)  coincides PRECISELY with:


  • Q3 provision announcement (Nov 6 selloff)


  • Asset management sale review (Dec 17)


  • Stock hitting S$34.00 support level


This is NOT panic buying. This is management saying: " At these prices, our shares represent exceptional value."

sfw2124      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 22:03) Posted:

UOB (U11): Why Fund Managers Got It Wrong



The selling pressure on UOB reflects two management misunderstandings:

1️ ⃣ ASSET MANAGEMENT SALE &ne DISTRESS



The $28.8B USD asset sale is  portfolio optimization, not financial desperation. UOB reallocates capital from lower-return asset management to higher-growth wholesale banking and wealth management. This signals  disciplined capital allocation, not weakness.​

2️ ⃣ $615M PROVISION &ne ASSET QUALITY DETERIORATION



The 72% Q3 profit decline is a one-off " kitchen sink" charge to front-load anticipated losses.  NPL ratio stayed stable at 1.6%. Management confirmed final 2025 dividend UNAFFECTED&mdash clear confidence signal. This is balance-sheet strengthening.​

THE NUMBERS DON' T LIE

Metric UOB OCBC DBS
P/B 1.2x 1.4x 2.3x
P/E 9.9x 12.1x 14.0x
Dividend 6.5% 4.8% 5.2%
 
 


UOB = Cheapest valuation + Highest yield = Pure mispricing from headlines.​

WHY FUND MANAGERS BAILED



✗ Headline trading (ignored non-recurring provisions)
✗ Momentum chasing (DBS/OCBC had better Q3 earnings)
✗ Risk-off bias (preferred " safe" DBS over recovery play)
✓   Your edge: Volume spike Dec 17 = capitulation selling exhausted​

2026 RECOVERY INCOMING



✓ NIM stabilizes 1.75%-1.80%
✓ Credit costs normalize to 25-30 bps (vs 134 bps Q3)
✓ Fee income growing (cards + wealth management)
✓ Earnings rebound as provisions reverse​

GEOPOLITICAL WIN



UOB = most ASEAN-centric bank. Trump 2.0 tariffs = manufacturing China &rarr Vietnam/Thailand/Malaysia = FDI financing + data center boom + trade finance growth.  DBS/OCBC have Greater China headwinds instead.​

ACTION



Value hunters  &rarr Accumulate SGD 34-36, target SGD 40-42 (15-21% gain + 6.5% yield = 22-27% return, 12-18 months)


Sources: Bloomberg (Dec 17) Investment analysis files Singapore Banks 2026 Outlook DYODD


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sfw2124
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22-Dec-2025 22:27     
 
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2025 DOMINATES ALL SGX COMPANIES(Share BuyBacks)

Rank Company 2025 YTD Spending Avg Price
1 UOB S$560.8m S$35.39
2 DBS S$371.1m S$42.77
3 OCBC S$349.0m S$16.67
4 Keppel S$70.0m S$8.39
5 Sembcorp S$59.0m S$6.05
 
 


UOB leads all SGX companies by 51% despite smaller market cap​

WHAT THIS TELLS YOU



✓   Management Confidence: Buying aggressively at 1.2x P/B while DBS trades 2.3x
✓   Capital Strength: S$2B buyback + 6.5% dividend maintained despite Q3 provision = underlying business is STRONG
✓   EPS Accretion: ~2-3% annual EPS growth just from reduced share count​
✓   Undervaluation Signal: Management sees value that market is missing
✓   Total Return Potential: 6.5% dividend + 2-3% buyback accretion + 15-21% capital gain = 24-30% over 18 months​

KEY INSIGHT



2025' s 9x acceleration in buybacks (S$658.5m vs S$102m in 2024)  coincides PRECISELY with:


  • Q3 provision announcement (Nov 6 selloff)


  • Asset management sale review (Dec 17)


  • Stock hitting S$34.00 support level


This is NOT panic buying. This is management saying: " At these prices, our shares represent exceptional value."

sfw2124      ( Date: 22-Dec-2025 22:03) Posted:

UOB (U11): Why Fund Managers Got It Wrong



The selling pressure on UOB reflects two management misunderstandings:

1️ ⃣ ASSET MANAGEMENT SALE &ne DISTRESS



The $28.8B USD asset sale is  portfolio optimization, not financial desperation. UOB reallocates capital from lower-return asset management to higher-growth wholesale banking and wealth management. This signals  disciplined capital allocation, not weakness.​

2️ ⃣ $615M PROVISION &ne ASSET QUALITY DETERIORATION



The 72% Q3 profit decline is a one-off " kitchen sink" charge to front-load anticipated losses.  NPL ratio stayed stable at 1.6%. Management confirmed final 2025 dividend UNAFFECTED&mdash clear confidence signal. This is balance-sheet strengthening.​

THE NUMBERS DON' T LIE

Metric UOB OCBC DBS
P/B 1.2x 1.4x 2.3x
P/E 9.9x 12.1x 14.0x
Dividend 6.5% 4.8% 5.2%
 
 


UOB = Cheapest valuation + Highest yield = Pure mispricing from headlines.​

WHY FUND MANAGERS BAILED



✗ Headline trading (ignored non-recurring provisions)
✗ Momentum chasing (DBS/OCBC had better Q3 earnings)
✗ Risk-off bias (preferred " safe" DBS over recovery play)
✓   Your edge: Volume spike Dec 17 = capitulation selling exhausted​

2026 RECOVERY INCOMING



✓ NIM stabilizes 1.75%-1.80%
✓ Credit costs normalize to 25-30 bps (vs 134 bps Q3)
✓ Fee income growing (cards + wealth management)
✓ Earnings rebound as provisions reverse​

GEOPOLITICAL WIN



UOB = most ASEAN-centric bank. Trump 2.0 tariffs = manufacturing China &rarr Vietnam/Thailand/Malaysia = FDI financing + data center boom + trade finance growth.  DBS/OCBC have Greater China headwinds instead.​

ACTION



Value hunters  &rarr Accumulate SGD 34-36, target SGD 40-42 (15-21% gain + 6.5% yield = 22-27% return, 12-18 months)


Sources: Bloomberg (Dec 17) Investment analysis files Singapore Banks 2026 Outlook DYODD

Joelton      ( Date: 20-Dec-2025 14:00) Posted:

UOB is said to explore possible sale of asset management arm
United Overseas Bank (UOB) is exploring options for its asset management arm, including a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Singaporean lender seeks to streamline. UOB is working with a financial adviser on a potential sale of UOB Asset Management, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private. Other options include bringing in a partner to boost the unit&rsquo s growth, the people said.
 
A transaction may value UOB&rsquo s asset management business at several hundred million dollars, some of the people said.
 
Established in 1986, the UOB subsidiary had about $37.2 billion of assets under management at the end of the first quarter, its website shows. Based in Singapore and wholly owned by UOB, the asset manager also has a presence in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
 
UOB Asset Management may draw interest from other industry players as well as insurers and private equity firms, the people said. Considerations are preliminary and may not result in a transaction, they said. Declining to comment on the subject, a representative for UOB said the bank is focused on delivering long-term value to shareholders and meeting customer needs.
 
UOB last month set aside aprovision of $615 million, its biggest ever, citing commercial real estate risks in the US and Greater China. The bank&rsquo s shares have fallen about 4% this year, while the Straits Times Index has rallied 21%.
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sfw2124
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22-Dec-2025 22:03     
 
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UOB (U11): Why Fund Managers Got It Wrong



The selling pressure on UOB reflects two management misunderstandings:

1️ ⃣ ASSET MANAGEMENT SALE &ne DISTRESS



The $28.8B USD asset sale is  portfolio optimization, not financial desperation. UOB reallocates capital from lower-return asset management to higher-growth wholesale banking and wealth management. This signals  disciplined capital allocation, not weakness.​

2️ ⃣ $615M PROVISION &ne ASSET QUALITY DETERIORATION



The 72% Q3 profit decline is a one-off " kitchen sink" charge to front-load anticipated losses.  NPL ratio stayed stable at 1.6%. Management confirmed final 2025 dividend UNAFFECTED&mdash clear confidence signal. This is balance-sheet strengthening.​

THE NUMBERS DON' T LIE

Metric UOB OCBC DBS
P/B 1.2x 1.4x 2.3x
P/E 9.9x 12.1x 14.0x
Dividend 6.5% 4.8% 5.2%
 
 


UOB = Cheapest valuation + Highest yield = Pure mispricing from headlines.​

WHY FUND MANAGERS BAILED



✗ Headline trading (ignored non-recurring provisions)
✗ Momentum chasing (DBS/OCBC had better Q3 earnings)
✗ Risk-off bias (preferred " safe" DBS over recovery play)
✓   Your edge: Volume spike Dec 17 = capitulation selling exhausted​

2026 RECOVERY INCOMING



✓ NIM stabilizes 1.75%-1.80%
✓ Credit costs normalize to 25-30 bps (vs 134 bps Q3)
✓ Fee income growing (cards + wealth management)
✓ Earnings rebound as provisions reverse​

GEOPOLITICAL WIN



UOB = most ASEAN-centric bank. Trump 2.0 tariffs = manufacturing China &rarr Vietnam/Thailand/Malaysia = FDI financing + data center boom + trade finance growth.  DBS/OCBC have Greater China headwinds instead.​

ACTION



Value hunters  &rarr Accumulate SGD 34-36, target SGD 40-42 (15-21% gain + 6.5% yield = 22-27% return, 12-18 months)


Sources: Bloomberg (Dec 17) Investment analysis files Singapore Banks 2026 Outlook DYODD

Joelton      ( Date: 20-Dec-2025 14:00) Posted:

UOB is said to explore possible sale of asset management arm
United Overseas Bank (UOB) is exploring options for its asset management arm, including a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Singaporean lender seeks to streamline. UOB is working with a financial adviser on a potential sale of UOB Asset Management, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private. Other options include bringing in a partner to boost the unit&rsquo s growth, the people said.
 
A transaction may value UOB&rsquo s asset management business at several hundred million dollars, some of the people said.
 
Established in 1986, the UOB subsidiary had about $37.2 billion of assets under management at the end of the first quarter, its website shows. Based in Singapore and wholly owned by UOB, the asset manager also has a presence in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
 
UOB Asset Management may draw interest from other industry players as well as insurers and private equity firms, the people said. Considerations are preliminary and may not result in a transaction, they said. Declining to comment on the subject, a representative for UOB said the bank is focused on delivering long-term value to shareholders and meeting customer needs.
 
UOB last month set aside aprovision of $615 million, its biggest ever, citing commercial real estate risks in the US and Greater China. The bank&rsquo s shares have fallen about 4% this year, while the Straits Times Index has rallied 21%.
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Joelton
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20-Dec-2025 14:00     
 
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UOB is said to explore possible sale of asset management arm
United Overseas Bank (UOB) is exploring options for its asset management arm, including a possible sale, according to people familiar with the matter, as the Singaporean lender seeks to streamline. UOB is working with a financial adviser on a potential sale of UOB Asset Management, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private. Other options include bringing in a partner to boost the unit&rsquo s growth, the people said.
 
A transaction may value UOB&rsquo s asset management business at several hundred million dollars, some of the people said.
 
Established in 1986, the UOB subsidiary had about $37.2 billion of assets under management at the end of the first quarter, its website shows. Based in Singapore and wholly owned by UOB, the asset manager also has a presence in Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
 
UOB Asset Management may draw interest from other industry players as well as insurers and private equity firms, the people said. Considerations are preliminary and may not result in a transaction, they said. Declining to comment on the subject, a representative for UOB said the bank is focused on delivering long-term value to shareholders and meeting customer needs.
 
UOB last month set aside aprovision of $615 million, its biggest ever, citing commercial real estate risks in the US and Greater China. The bank&rsquo s shares have fallen about 4% this year, while the Straits Times Index has rallied 21%.
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MrBear12
Supreme
20-Nov-2025 12:51     
 
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Yells: "Cast all our anxieties on Jesus for He cares for us"
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Delvyss
Elite
20-Nov-2025 12:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		UOB Share Price Correction Offers Opportunity To Accumulate

https://sginvestors.io/analysts/research/2025/11/united-overseas-bank-ocbc-investment-research-2025-11-06
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MrBear12
Supreme
11-Nov-2025 08:02     
 
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 Alert Admin 		https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion-features/uob-could-be-singapores-top-value-play

Begin covering UOB
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Joelton
Supreme
07-Nov-2025 08:15     
 
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UOB shares end 2.8% down after Q3 profit tumbles
The lender &lsquo pre-emptively set aside&rsquo additional allowances
[SINGAPORE] Shares of   UOB   : U11 -2.78% plunged as much as about 4.6 per cent on Thursday (Nov 6) after it reported a 72 per cent year-on-year decline in net profit for its third quarter.
 
The counter fell to S$33.25 two minutes after market open on a S$1.62 drop that momentarily slashed UOB&rsquo s market value by nearly S$2.7 billion.
 
It later pared some of the losses to be 3.2 per cent down as at the midday trading break.
 
The bank&rsquo s Q3 net profit fell to S$443 million, compared with S$1.61 billion a year earlier, reported UOB. The result was far from the S$1.34 billion consensus estimate according to a Bloomberg poll of five analysts.
 
The lender &ldquo pre-emptively set aside&rdquo additional allowances worth S$615 million in Q3, bringing the total allowance for credit and other losses to S$1.36 billion as at Sep 30. This compared to S$304 million a year earlier.
 
Citi analyst Yong Hong Tan said pre-provision operating profit was about S$1.9 billion &ndash a much milder 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter dip and 4 per cent below his estimates.
 
The weak Q3 headline profit was mainly due to one-off &ldquo kitchen-sinking&rdquo provisions rather than underlying weakness. Core operating performance held up relatively well, with stable margins and costs, said Tan. 
 
He added that asset quality worsened slightly, mainly outside Singapore, but UOB&rsquo s stronger loan-loss buffers suggest a more conservative stance ahead.
 
Despite UOB&rsquo s cheaper valuation versus peers, Tan said near-term sentiment is likely to stay cautious. Investors will likely remain focused on asset quality given the rise in non-performing loans and higher specific provisions, even after this &ldquo kitchen-sinking&rdquo quarter. 
 
Tan added that the bank&rsquo s FY2026 guidance also implies lower earnings and dividend growth, which could continue to weigh on share performance despite its strengthened balance sheet.
 
UOB&rsquo s S$885 million allowance build-up &lsquo prudent&rsquo despite Q3 profit hit: analysts
In general, analysts do not read the provisioning as a red flag for the bank
 
[SINGAPORE] UOB&rsquo s S$885 million move to shore up its allowances is a &ldquo prudent&rdquo step that brings its provision ratios in line with those of DBS and OCBC, analysts said, even as it resulted in a huge one-off hit to the lender&rsquo s third-quarter profit.
 
On Thursday (Nov 6),   UOB   : S68 -0.12% shocked the market with a 72 per cent drop in net profit to S$443 million for the three months ended Sep 30, from S$1.61 billion a year earlier.
 
This came after the bank set aside total allowances of S$1.17 billion &ndash more than four times or S$885 million higher than the S$281 million booked the year before.
 
As the counter fell 2.8 per cent to close at S$33.90, paring back from a larger decline of over 4 per cent earlier in the day, analysts took the provisions in their stride. In general, they did not read the provisioning as a red flag for UOB.
 
The S$1.17 billion comprised general allowances of S$687 million and specific allowances on loans of S$479 million, the latter up from S$296 million previously. 
 
DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen said the general allowances came as UOB &ldquo (seeks) to increase buffers to be more in line with peers&rdquo .
 
General allowances are broad provisions set aside for potential credit losses in the overall loan portfolio, while specific allowances are made for identified troubled loans.
 
&ldquo I think it&rsquo s fair to say that we believe the move is partly to catch up with provisions that peers have made earlier,&rdquo said Lorraine Tan, director of equity research for Asia at Morningstar, adding that it is &ldquo probably not representative of any specific new deterioration&rdquo .
 
&ldquo They do appear to be bowing to investor expectations of growing risks, but at the same time, we think the caution is warranted in light of slowing global growth,&rdquo she added.
 
The increase brings UOB&rsquo s performing loans coverage &ndash a measure of how much buffer the bank holds against potential losses from loans that are still current &ndash to 1 per cent as at Sep 30, up from 0.8 per cent at end-June.
 
In comparison, UOB&rsquo s peers have a general allowance coverage of about 0.9 per cent, Tan noted.
 
Tay Wee Kuang, research analyst at CGS International Securities Singapore, said the additional provisioning exercise was &ldquo mostly out of prudence&rdquo .
 
The boost to general allowances will allow for migration to specific allowances if &ldquo systemic headwinds within its commercial real estate loan book arises&rdquo , he said.
 
UOB deputy chairman and chief executive officer Wee Ee Cheong and group chief financial officer Leong Yung Chee said at an earnings briefing on Thursday that most of the specific allowances were tied to exposures in the commercial real estate sectors of the US and Greater China.
 
Tay said lifting its performing loans coverage ratio to 1 per cent also allows UOB to &ldquo commit&rdquo to its 2026 guidance, which includes total credit costs coming in between 25 and 30 basis points.
 
UOB and   DBS   : D05 +3.81% both released their Q3 results on Thursday. OCBC is set to announce its results on Friday morning, before market trading.
 
At DBS&rsquo earnings call, CEO Tan Su Shan described the bank&rsquo s general allowance reserves as &ldquo more than adequate&rdquo .
 
As at Sep 30, DBS&rsquo total allowance stood at S$6.4 billion, comprising S$4.1 billion in general allowances and S$2.4 billion in specific allowances.
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taulauhor
Member
06-Nov-2025 17:29     
 
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 Alert Admin 		No $3 no buy.

MrBear12      ( Date: 06-Nov-2025 16:57) Posted:

Lesser profits and money earmarked for provisions means lesser shareholder return.

So yes, it could well go under 33.

Even under 30 is possible

Fiat500      ( Date: 06-Nov-2025 16:50) Posted:

Profits are still there for UOB, its just that they're setting money aside for rainy days..But as usual, mkt don't react well to such news.
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