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YZJFH - potentially rewarding
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Oct-2014 13:38
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Well, I've just passed my 1 yr anniversary since I started collecting NOL late Aug last year. I can go with the suggestion to stop posting and who knows, that will make a positive spin :)
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Heero78
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01-Oct-2014 13:15
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i cannot believe it....after so many yrs, still talking and posting... already coming to tank below 0.90 and still want to talk good about NOL...this is what we called self-delusion. I think NOL will cheong the moment u guys stop posting/talking about NOL.
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Oct-2014 12:41
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If NOL drops 0.005 - 0.01 daily, it is like cooking a frog with slow fire. The story many know. Perhaps a 'panic selling' will trigger some alarm and get the mgmt to set up and make some response esp to the plan for divestment. This is really killing many investors' enthusiasm. It is worst letting some news out only to stay silent for such a long time thereafter. In the meantime, those who are active in the industry may be happily collecting at lower prices if ultimately, the deal will still materialise. It is painful to see value eroding but I rather see a roller coaster for a deep dive to reset the baseline to have a chance for bounce back than to see it dropping slowly bit by bit. | ||||
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danger
Supreme |
01-Oct-2014 09:09
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PANIC SELLING |
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Lucky03
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01-Oct-2014 07:40
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In fact, market was anticipating oil to go up due to conflict in Ukraine and Middle East.
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Lucky03
Elite |
01-Oct-2014 07:37
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Price of crude oil is crucial for transportation business and normally the price fall will translate to better profit due to lower cost.
PUBLISHED OCTOBER 01, 2014 Oil drops to two-year lows, capping quarter-long rout PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE [NEW YORK] World oil prices tumbled to their lowest in more than two years on Tuesday, with US crude posting its biggest daily decline since 2012, as a drop in gasoline prices and end-of-quarter selling capped three months of steep losses. Oil prices in the United States and Europe have plummeted since the end of June as output from the Middle East, Africa and the United States swamped the market and outweighed fears of supply disruptions from war-torn oil-producing regions. Falling gasoline prices and a strong dollar contributed to losses on Tuesday. New York RBOB gasoline for October delivery , which expired Tuesday, fell 4 per cent, reversing more than half of its gains from a two-week rally that traders had attributed to a short squeeze on local supplies. Brent for November delivery fell US$2.53 to settle at US$94.67 a barrel, marking a 16 per cent loss for the quarter, the biggest in two years. Brent has fallen 19 per cent since mid June, putting the benchmark near bear market territory. |
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phileasx
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30-Sep-2014 14:36
Yells: "The market and your trades and positions are all linked!" |
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result still far away 30oct, now likely will see new low
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danger
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30-Sep-2014 09:54
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GONE CASE ! 93.5c |
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Lucky03
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30-Sep-2014 07:31
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Trade volume up, spot rate steady and bunker fuel prices lower and ship utilization higher partly due to alliance. I hope NOL will not disappoint us when they release their Q3 result on 31 Oct. | ||||
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Lucky03
Elite |
30-Sep-2014 07:28
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Bunker prices edge up after summer dip
Corianne Egan, Associate Editor | Sep 29, 2014 5:48PM EDT Bunker fuel prices in Rotterdam, a global indicator, held steady this week though the charge per metric ton is historically lower than in previous years. Both high- and low-sulfur bunker fuels have dropped significantly since June, but this week both rose 0.2 percent. The small uptick stops weeks of tanking rates that brought high-sulfur prices down 6.2 percent since June 1 and low sulfur 14 percent lower. High-sulfur bunker fuel prices have dropped 7.9 percent this year, while low-sulfur fuel prices sank 9.7 percent year-to-date. Full-size chart The price of high-sulfur bunker fuel registered $542.90 per metric ton, still 8.8 percent lower than the same week of 2013. Low-sulfur fuel stood at $552.90 per metric ton, 9.7 percent lower than Week 39 of 2013. Year-to-date, high-sulfur bunker fuel is 7.9 percent lower than the same time period of 2013. Low-sulfur prices are 10.2 percent lower year-to-date than in the same period in 2013. Bloomberg's Business Week said this week that oil is in the middle of one of the "steepest sell-offs since the financial crisis." The price per barrel of crude oil has dropped 16 percent since mid-June. As more crude oil comes on the market, prices are driven down, and with an influx of oil from Libya and relatively flat demand, prices have consistently been driven down. Countries that typically drop production when there is insurgency or political strife haven?t had the same issues this year, as Iraq and Ukraine continue to produce the same levels of oil. But demand in the U.S., China and Europe has run flat, or in some cases dropped. Bunker fuel prices typically follow the pricing of crude oil. BRENT, an index of spot market fuel prices, reported the price per barrel at $99. BRENT has registered below $100 per barrel for three weeks in a row, an anomaly that hasn't happened in more than a year. Though the price for low sulfur has dropped by more than 10 percent this year, carrier demand is poised to skyrocket as of Jan. 1 because of environmental emission regulations across the globe. In Europe's new emission control areas, CMA CGM instituted a low-sulfur surcharge on all cargo. The surcharge varies by cargo destination, but runs between $20 and $150 per 20-foot container. Maersk Line, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd and OOCL all also plan to charge similar upcharges. Contact Corianne Egan at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @CEgan_JOC. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
30-Sep-2014 06:49
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Drewry: Trans-Atlantic spot rates stable, trade balanced
Corianne Egan, Associate Editor | Sep 29, 2014 12:52PM EDT Trans-Atlantic spot container rates have been relatively stable in recent months on both eastbound and westbound shipping routes between northern Europe and North America, according to Drewry Maritime Research. Though westbound trade from Europe to North America has seen impressive growth ? July data shows container traffic reaching an annual high of 261,000 TEUs ? carriers haven't jumped at the chance to add capacity. Slots on the trade lane were down 5 percent in August, Drewry said in its latest edition of Container Insight Weekly. Spot container rates relatively stable in trans-Atlantic trade. Full-size chart Trans-Atlantic eastbound trade from North America to northern Europe registered 176,000 TEUs, 12,000 TEUs higher year-over-year. Capacity, however, tightened 5.3 percent in August. Though some of the decline in capacity was tied to a missed sailing from the G6 Alliance, it?s created an equilibrium that is helping to stabilize a volatile spot market. "Despite strong ship utilization ? westbound ships were full to brimming in July ? carriers have yet to realize significant spot rate gains," Drewry said. "Drewry?s Container Freight Rate Insight shows only a marginal increase in Rotterdam-to-New York rates in July, followed by no movement in August at $1,750 per 40-foot container." According to the World Container Index, the spot rate from Rotterdam to New York has been relatively steady since July, rising 5.3 percent over a period of 14 weeks. WCI registered no change in nine of the 13 weeks. The spot rate currently stands at $2,241 per 40-foot container, 11.3 percent higher than the same week of 2013. The westbound spot rate is up 12 percent, or $240 per FEU, since Jan. 1 compared to the same time period in 2013. WCI's spot rate from New York to Rotterdam has, however, dropped 10.7 percent since July 1. In those 13 weeks, four weeks registered no movement. The spot rate has dropped 13 percent year-over-year, or $183 per FEU since Jan. 1. WCI's last reading showed the eastbound spot rate at $1,222 per FEU, 23 percent lower than the same week of 2013. Drewry reported Canadian imports from Europe rose by 5,000 TEUs in July, while U.S. import volumes from Europe jumped by 17,000 TEUs, Drewry said. Trade with Mexico was flat. Ships were less full on the eastbound voyage, Drewry said, reporting about 80 percent utilization. Though some patterns tend to be fleeting, Drewry said the expanding trade between Europe and North American countries could bode well for shippers and carriers on the trans-Atlantic in the coming months. "This trade lane, in both directions, has shown remarkable stability over the past 12 months," Drewry said. "There is little to suggest the balance between supply and demand will not continue in the coming fourth quarter." Contact Corianne Egan at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @CEgan_JOC. |
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guiren
Veteran |
29-Sep-2014 16:51
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Agreed with Lucky03, very constructive views |
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sgng123
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29-Sep-2014 16:50
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To fight back NOL need to merge with other like minded carriers and form a bigger carrier to directly challenge Maesrk/MSC grip on the market. Currently if 2M alliance got knock down by either the US/Europe/China regulators, it would be ver ygoodfor freight rate stabilisation as they more or less had hit the limit on how low they can push down rate without cutting into their profit. explain why both in a hurry to form 2M as they might have overdone lowering the rate and need more way to cut cost.
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Sep-2014 22:43
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Based on current Net Asset Value of US$0.74 and current rate, it works out to S$0.943 and US$ is strengthening which means NOL current price is discount to its NAV. High risk for any price prediction as many have failed over last :2 years. I'm vested with my own judgement. Good chance $1.08, pessimistic stuck in range $0.94-$0.97 and optimistic $1.28. Whatever, it is likely to be a hockey stick effect should the corporate restructure including divestment, M&A or privatization scenario pan out.
Look out for its Q3 result. NOL has shared that its cost savings amount to US$1.2b over last 2 years or simple straight line will be US$150m. It should be much higher now given that it has fully taken delivery of the larger and more efficient ships and returning older, smaller and more fuel inefficient ships. Risk is whether freight rate will drop faster than cost cutting. Maersk may well be the bigger culprit in the market and driving freight rate down as it gains most from its renewal program and economy of scale resulting in significant cost reduction. It kills the smaller players and thereby increasing its market share. NOL must be able to reap more cost savings from the G6 Alliance to fight back.
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perseverance
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28-Sep-2014 20:11
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What is your prediction of the price over the next 3 months? |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Sep-2014 19:08
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While ECB struggles, Fed sees recovery Reuters 1 hr ago By William Schomberg LONDON (Reuters) - On one side of the Atlantic they're trying to refill the punchbowl. On the other they're getting ready to take it away. This week, investors may get a clearer idea why. The European Central Bank will spell out on Thursday its latest attempt to steer the euro zone away from the prospect of damaging deflation, following the latest snapshot of consumer price pressures on Tuesday. PRE400 In Stock webofficemart.com/PRE400 U.S. jobs numbers on Friday will probably confirm that the fast-recovering American economy has reached the point where the Federal Reserve can finally halt its massive bond-buying stimulus. The contrast between the U.S. and euro zone economies has grown increasingly stark, adding to the pressure on the ECB and European leaders to revive growth in their corner of the world. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew last week laid bare Washington's long-standing frustrations with the reluctance of European governments to increase public spending. The risk of the euro zone sliding into deflation and deeper stagnation is adding to the drag on the global economy from a slowdown in China, where authorities are trying to rein in lending, and concerns about conflict in the Middle East. But instead of fiscal action by European governments, it is action by the ECB that is the most likely spur for the region. After surprising markets with an interest rate cut at its September meeting and trying to get banks to take cheap loans to boost lending, the ECB on Thursday is due to give details of its plan to unblock corporate credit by buying repackaged loans. Marchel Alexandrovich, an economist with Jefferies in London, said investors wanted an idea of the size of the programme to buy asset-backed securities and covered bonds. This would help them gauge when the ECB might start buying government bonds, a much more powerful - and controversial - form of stimulus. Economists have widely ranging guesses as to the size of the programme, and Alexandrovich said that the bigger it proved to be, the longer the ECB was likely to hold off from buying government bonds. Reuters reported this month that initial plans for the ABS and covered bond programme foresaw up to 500 billion euros (393.89 billion British pound) in purchases. ECB President Mario Draghi has said the bank wants to push its balance sheet back up to the levels of early 2012, or about 3 trillion euros, compared with 2 trillion euros now. Tuesday's consumer price data is likely to underscore how close the euro zone is to succumbing to deflation. Inflation in the 18 countries sharing the currency is expected to fall to 0.3 percent in September, its lowest level in nearly five years. Economists at Nomura saw "a clear sign that euro area policy makers are losing their grip on inflation expectations". WAGE CONUNDRUM In the United States, the challenge for policymakers looks very different with attention focused on when interest rates will start to rise after nearly six years at near zero. The U.S. economy looks to be on course for growth of about 2 or 2.5 percent this year, and the Federal Reserve intends to halt its bond-buying programme in October. Data due on Friday is expected to show employers hired 219,000 people in September, a bounce-back from a surprise slip in August to 142,000. "The message from the Fed is 'watch the data' which is why the numbers next week will be very closely watched, maybe much more so than in recent months," said Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. strategist with TD Securities. As well as the jobs data, figures on consumer spending, manufacturing and trade are likely to show the U.S. recovery firmly on track. Even so, earnings have failed to respond much to the pick-up in jobs growth, something pointed out by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and which could delay a first rate hike. Goldman Sachs says that its number-crunching shows that growth in wages is becoming an increasingly reliable indicator of how much slack there is in the economy. Noting how earnings growth lagged behind inflation in the United States, the euro zone, Britain and Japan in the second quarter, the investment bank predicted central banks would take their time to start raising record-low interest rates with the Fed only doing so in the third quarter of next year. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates before the Fed, and upward revisions to the pace of economic growth in 2013 and the first two quarters of this year - which are expected to be announced on Tuesday - will add to the sense of an economy firing on almost all of its cylinders. But like the Fed, the BoE has put weak growth in pay and labour costs at the heart of its thinking and has signalled a first rate hike is only likely to come in the spring of 2015. "While estimates of recent GDP growth may be nudged up, we doubt that these revisions will have major effects on the outlook for fiscal or monetary policy," economists at consultancy Capital Economics said in a note to clients. (Writing by William Schomberg additional reporting by Eva Taylor in Frankfurt Editing by Hugh Lawson) |
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Lucky03
Elite |
28-Sep-2014 16:50
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Growth in world trade is important and a more and desired longer term development that will help to rebalance supply and demand. The Europe economy is not recovering as much and as fast as has been anticipated. Even Germany is not growing as fast. Hope ECB will announce QE program when they next meet on Thurs. APL probably has more of its market share and revenue derived from USA market than Europe esp APL Logistic and APL Terminal. In that regards, their fate is tightly coupled with the USA economy. Hence they were very badly affected by the severe winter season in USA. Conversely, expecting them to deliver good set of Q3 result as the American economy has a good set of economic figures including manufacturing activity.
ECB to unveil details of new liquidity programmes AFP News 2 hrs ago Simon Morgan The European Central Bank will this week unveil details of its plans to inject cash into the moribund eurozone economy, even as analysts express doubt about the effectiveness of the measures. Following its surprise rate cut last month, the ECB is not expected to announce any new policy moves at its regular monthly meeting on Thursday, held this time in the Italian city of Naples instead of its usual home venue in Frankfurt. HR Solutions Techtarget.com But financial markets are hoping that ECB president Mario Draghi will provide more details about the bank's contested liquidity programmes, notably its plans to buy asset-backed securities as a way of kick-starting lending in the 18 countries that share the euro. And some ECB watchers will be listening out for any hints that the bank may embark on a much wider programme of so-called quantitative easing (QE) or the purchase of unlimited amounts of bonds, a policy already practised by other central banks such as the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. At its meeting last month, the ECB surprised the markets by cutting its key interest rates to new all-time lows and unveiling an ABS programme and a covered bond programme to ward off deflation in the single currency area. And Draghi also appeared to hint at quantitative easing by saying the ECB would use "additional unconventional instruments within its mandate". Asset-backed securities (ABS) are bundles of individual loans such as mortgages, auto credit and credit-card debt that are sold on to investors, allowing banks to share the risk of default and freeing up funds to offer more credit. - Reservations about ABS - The ECB believes that the market for such securities -- an important source of financing for banks to keep lending to small and medium-sized enterprises -- has effectively dried up since the financial crisis. And the ECB hopes that by buying them on a large scale, it can help revive the market and free up some of the credit channels which have seized up during the long years of crisis. The problem is that it was precisely complex financial derivatives such as ABS which are seen as the the root of the sub-prime crisis in the US in 2008, leading many observers, particularly in Germany, to harbour deep reservations about them. Analysts are also unconvinced that the ABS programme would be big enough to solve the problem of stymied credit. "ABS backed by loans to small and medium-sized enterprises are desirable, but unfortunately not available on any meaningful scale," said Willem Buiter of Citigroup. - Disappointing uptake of loans - Another of its liquidity measures, the so-called Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) under which the ECB made ultra-cheap loans available to banks in the hope that they would lend it on to businesses, disappointed market expectations. The ECB said it lent 82.6 billion euros ($105 billion) to 255 banks as it began the programme, below analysts' forecasts for an uptake of at least 100 billion euros. Draghi insisted that the uptake was within the ECB's forecast range. But Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert believed that "the volume of the TLTROs and the ABS/Covered Bond programme will not meet the ECB's expectations." And that meant the ECB "will have to take action again: in the longer term ?- presumably from the first half of 2015 ?- the ECB is likely to buy government bonds on a broad front," Schubert said. Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics agreed. "All of this suggests that the ECB will soon take the plunge into full-blown quantitative easing," she said. "But while QE now seems close to a done deal, we doubt that it will be announced in October. We still think that the bank's December meeting is the most likely timing," the expert said. Deutsche Bank economist Mark Will said it was "more likely than not that the ECB will announce 'broad-based asset purchases', including public QE -- or purchases of government bonds -- within the next six months."
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editorright
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27-Sep-2014 21:40
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The current price is good. Need to hang on for a while. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
27-Sep-2014 12:19
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Eagerly waiting to hear how has NOL benefitted from the G6 Alliance. The 'slow recovery' could have been faster !
UASC?s CEO says alliances will stabilize market Grace M. Lavigne, Associate Web Editor | Sep 26, 2014 5:43PM EDT United Arab Shipping Co. expects that as mega-alliances increasingly consolidate the container shipping market, freight rates will stabilize, which could be bad news for shippers. UASC?s president and CEO, Jorn Hinge, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal today that he expects less volatility in freight rates as smaller ships move out of major ocean lanes, and said shipping is on a ?slow journey to recovery.? ?The biggest challenge in shipping is to control your costs, and fuel is the biggest cost,? Hinge told The Wall Street Journal. ?Modern, big ships carry more cargo using less fuel, and this makes it more difficult for [smaller competitors] to be in the trade.? Bunker fuels can comprise more than 50 percent of a liner?s operating costs, so any price cuts in fuel can have a significant impact. However, ocean carriers? relentless drive to reduce costs, sparked nearly a decade ago by Maersk Line and its acquisition of 15,500-TEU container ships, could negatively impact supply chains. Alliances in particular may be causing service offerings to become increasingly uniform, which hurts shippers? breadth of transportation options. UASC recently announced plans to launch a mega-alliance with CMA CGM and China Shipping Container Lines called the Ocean Three or O3, which is still pending approval. The new alliance?s strongest presence will be in the Europe-Asia trade, where it is estimated to have a 20 percent market share, ahead of 13 percent and 6 percent shares in the trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic, respectively. It will compete directly with the 2M, G6 and CKYHE alliances, and will control 13.9 percent of the market share of the Top 20 container lines, according to Alphaliner. This week, UASC also signed a deal with Hamburg Süd, paving the way for UASC to enter the Europe-South America east coast and Asia-South America east coast trades beginning in mid-2015. Excluding Zim Integrated Shipping Services, all traditional east-west carriers are now entrenched in alliances that cover all three east-west trades. Contact Grace M. Lavigne at [email protected] and follow her on Twitter: @Lavigne_JOC. |
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Lucky03
Elite |
26-Sep-2014 22:00
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PUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
US Q2 growth up at a brisk 4.6% pace PRINT |EMAIL THIS ARTICLE The US economy grew at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years in the second quarter and activity was broad-based, in a bullish signal for the remainder of the year. - PHOTO: REUTERS [WASHINGTON] The US economy grew at its fastest pace in 2-1/2 years in the second quarter and activity was broad-based, in a bullish signal for the remainder of the year. The Commerce Department on Friday raised its estimate of gross domestic product to show the economy expanded at a 4.6 percent annual rate. The best performance since the fourth quarter of 2011 reflected a faster pace of business spending and sturdier export growth than previously estimated. The stronger growth profile provides a firmer base for the third quarter. So far, economic data such as manufacturing, trade and housing suggest that much of the second-quarter momentum spilled over into the third quarter. Growth estimates for the July-September quarter range as high as a 3.6 per cent pace. GDP was previously estimated to have advanced at a 4.2 per cent rate in the second quarter. The revision was in line with Wall Street's expectations. The economy contracted at a 2.1 per cent pace in the first quarter. There were upward revisions to all categories, with the exception of consumer spending, where stronger healthcare outlays were offset by weaknesses in recreation and durable goods spending. Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, was unrevised at a 2.5 per cent rate. Business spending on equipment was raised to an 11.2 per cent pace from a 10.7 per cent rate. Businesses also invested more in nonresidential structures, such as gas drilling, as well as in research and development. Domestic demand increased at a brisk 3.4 per cent rate, instead of the previously reported 3.1 per cent pace. The fastest pace since the second quarter of 2010 suggested the economic recovery was more durable after growth slumped in the first quarter because of an unusually cold winter. The strong pace of domestic demand growth helps to explain the robust job gains during the quarter, as well as the sharp decline in the unemployment rate. The strong labor market performance during the quarter was also supported by a surge in gross domestic income, which measures the income side of the growth ledger. GDI surged at a 5.2 per cent rate, revised up from the previously reported 4.7 per cent pace. Businesses accumulated US$84.8 billion worth of inventory in the second quarter, a bit more than the previously reported US$83.9 billion. That saw restocking contributing 1.42 percentage points to GDP growth rather than 1.39 percentage points. Still, there is little sign of an inventory overhang, a positive signal for third-quarter GDP growth. Though trade was a drag for a second consecutive quarter, export growth was raised to an 11.1 per cent pace, the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2010, from a 10.1 per cent rate. Housing market-related spending was revised up as was government spending. Corporate profits rebounded a bit more strongly than previously reported from a decline in the first quarter that had been spurred by the expiration of a depreciation bonus.- Reuters |
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