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COMFORT DELGRO - MOVING FORWARD
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
11-Dec-2023 10:44
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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$1.37 new 52-week high. For context, this is still below Covid-19 lows. More upside to come.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Entropy72
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10-Dec-2023 14:01
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ComfortDelGro - UOB Kay Hian 2023-12-06: 1H24 Conviction Pick Expect A Strong Finish To 2023
ComfortDelGro - 1H24 Conviction Pick Expect A Strong Finish To 2023 ComfortDelGro?s public transport segment is set to benefit from the upcoming 7% increase in public transport fares from Dec 23, coupled with ongoing UK bus contract renewals and cost indexation. While there is no change to ComfortDelGro?s taxi commission rate for Dec 23, we anticipate an upward revision in 2024 given the substantial gap from peers. In view of ComfortDelGro?s favourable tailwinds and a decent 4.6% dividend yield, we maintain BUY with the same target price of S$1.69. No changes to taxi rental rebates and commission rates. We understand that there have been no changes to ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52)?s 10% daily taxi rental rebate and the 5% online booking commission rate through its Zig app for Dec 23. As a recap, changes to the daily taxi rental rebate would be reviewed quarterly while the commission rate is reviewed monthly. We do not expect any near-term changes to the 10% daily taxi rental rebates given that ComfortDelGro?s daily taxi rentals are almost double that of peers. However, ComfortDelGro?s 5% online booking commission rate is much lower when compared with major competitors like Grab and GoJek. We thus expect potential upward revisions in 2024, closing in on ComfortDelGro?s peers. Stable ridership and taxi demand. ComfortDelGro?s rail ridership remained steady at 98% of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019), increasing 0.2% m-o-m and 11.8% y-o-y respectively in Oct 23. Additionally, per the Land Transport Authority (LTA), the average number of point-to-point (P2P) daily trips, via both street-hail and ride-hailing services, remains elevated at 618,000 trips, just 7,000 trips short of the two-year peak in Apr 23. As more employers roll back prevailing work-from-home arrangements and mandate a return-to-office policy, we expect both rail and taxi ridership to continue the upward momentum moving forward into 2024. Impending higher public transport fares. As a recap, bus and train fares in Singapore are set to increase by up to 7.0% starting 23 Dec 23, following the Public Transport Council?s (PTC) annual fare review. Despite being more than double of last year?s 2.9% hike, the upcoming fare hike is only a portion of the maximum allowable fare adjustment of 22.6%. It is expected that the remaining 15.6% would be deferred to future annual fare review exercises, implying further fare adjustments in 2024-25. According to the PTC, ComfortDelGro?s 74.4%-owned subsidiary, SBS Transit, is set to experience an S$20.9m increase in annual revenue. Given that there are no incremental operating costs with the fare hike, we reckon that this would lead to higher margins for ComfortDelGro?s public transport segment and flow straight to the bottom line. Based on our estimates, the upcoming fare hike would increase ComfortDelGro?s 2024-25 overall net profit by around S$10m. We have already incorporated the increase in net profit in our previous update. Public transport: Margin expansion to continue into 1H24. As a recap, ComfortDelGro?s 3Q23 revenue (+3.4% y-o-y, +3.9% q-o-q) and core operating profit (+19.6% y-o-y, +13.8% q-o-q) outperformed, aided by improving rail ridership in Singapore and UK bus contract renewals and cost indexation coming through. This led to 3Q23 core operating margins expanding by 0.3ppt q-o-q and 0.6ppt y-o-y to 4.3%. With 30% of ComfortDelGro?s UK bus contracts expected to undergo cost indexation within the next two quarters, we reckon that this margin expansion would likely continue into 4Q23/1H24, boosting segmental profitability. Also, given increasingly rational competition post-COVID-19 in the UK, 10% of ComfortDelGro?s UK bus contracts were renewed at healthier margins and we expect the same for upcoming contract renewals. Back home, the upcoming 7% fare increase is also expected to boost segmental profitability as mentioned earlier. Therefore, we estimate 2023 segmental annual revenue and core operating profit at S$2,973m (+3.0% y-o-y) and S$122m (stable y-o-y) respectively, driven by a strong 4Q23. For 4Q23, we expect segmental revenue (+6.1% y-o-y, +5.3% q-o-q) and core operating profit (+142.5% y-o-y, +12.8% q-o-q) to surge higher, backed by favourable tailwinds. Taxi: Potential catalyst. 3Q23 taxi quarterly revenue inched higher (+3.3% y-o-y, +4.8% q-o-q) while core operating profit surged to S$28.5m (+38.3% y-o-y, +10.5% q-o-q). Despite 3Q23 taxi booking volumes being roughly the same q-o-q at 8.1m, the rate of cancellation was higher due to stiffer domestic competition, ultimately dragging down ComfortDelGro?s overall commission on completed jobs and offsetting the platform fees. Moving forward, in our view, we reckon that there would be potential upward revisions to ComfortDelGro?s 5% online commission rate in 2024, closing in on ComfortDelGro?s peers which would help boost segmental margins. Based on our estimates, every 1% increase to ComfortDelGro?s online commission rate would raise our 2024 annual taxi core operating profit by around 4-5% and our 2024 overall annual net profit estimates by 2-3%. We estimate 2024 taxi annual revenue and core operating profit of S$578m (+4.2% y-o-y) and S$104m (+49.5% y-o-y) respectively, driven by the recently implemented platform fees and lower daily rental rebates. Like the public transport segment, we also expect 4Q23 taxi revenue (+6.9% y-o-y, +3.2% q-o-q) and core operating profit (+38.3% y-o-y, +10.5% q-o-q) to surge higher as well. ComfortDelGro ? Earnings forecast revision & recommendation We make insignificant tweaks to our PATMI forecasts for ComfortDelGro. Our new 2023/24/25 PATMI forecasts are S$182.8m (S$183.4m previously), S$238.4m (S$238.2m previously) and S$270.3m (S$271.9m previously) respectively. Maintain BUY recommendation on ComfortDelGro with the same P/E-based target price of S$1.69, pegged to the same 15x 2024F P/E, ComfortDelGro?s average long-term P/E. With improving fundamentals, a decent 4.6% dividend yield (see ComfortDelGro's dividend history) and a robust balance sheet, we reckon that most negatives have already been priced in. Backed by upcoming favourable tailwinds, we reckon that better sequential earnings improvement for 4Q23/1Q24 would help support ComfortDelGro's share price performance in 1H24. Catalyst: Bus tender contract wins. Complete removal of taxi rental rebates. Earnings-accretive overseas acquisitions. Increase in taxi commission rates. |
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Joelton
Supreme |
08-Dec-2023 11:05
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Silchester continues to raise stake in ComfortDelGro Ameriprise no longer substantial shareholder
Silchester International Investors, already a substantial shareholder of ComfortDelGro C52 0.75% Corp, continued to raise its stake with more acquisitions. On Dec 1, the fund manager acquired four million shares on the open market at or about $1.29 each or $5.16 million in total. This brings Silchester&rsquo s stake in ComfortDelGro to nearly 133 million shares or 6.14%, up from 5.96% previously.
 
New York-based Silchester, which was formed in 1994, first emerged as a substantial shareholder of ComfortDelGro on Nov 7 after it bought just over 1.5 million shares at about $1.34 each. The acquisition increased its stake to 5.026% from 4.955% earlier.
 
As the asset manager describes on its website, Silchester focuses on &ldquo maximising intrinsic value&rdquo measured via the earnings, assets and dividends of the companies it invests in. &ldquo We implement this by a strong price discipline &mdash lower multiples of earnings, assets and dividends means more earnings, assets and dividends at the outset &mdash and by a quality appraisal which seeks to identify companies capable of increasing earnings, assets and dividends by their own efforts,&rdquo says Silchester.
 
The acquisition by Silchester came just a week before ComfortDelGro announced on Dec 6 a higher fare structure to help drivers cope with higher costs including the impending Goods and Services Tax starting in the new year. The last fare revision was made just last March. In its note on Dec 7, DBS Group Research, which is keeping its &ldquo buy&rdquo call and $1.67 target price on the stock, estimates that ComfortDelGro will enjoy an additional $3 million in commission with the new fare structure.
 
Demand for taxis is not likely to be affected. &ldquo With overall point-to-point market being driver constrained, we expect demand for taxis to remain strong,&rdquo says DBS, which is expecting other smaller taxi fleet operators to follow suit.
 
In any case, before the fare structure adjustment, the company has been enjoying a recovery in its earnings.
 
Another fund management firm, Ameriprise Financial, trimmed its stake in ComfortDelGro. On Nov 14, it sold 862,4000 shares on the open market at $1.32 each. It now holds nearly 107.9 million shares or 4.982%, down from 5.021% earlier. As its stake has dropped below the 5% mark, there is no further obligation to disclose additional selling, if any.
 
In its 3QFY2023 ended September business update on Nov 14, ComfortDelGro reported a 3.8% y-o-y increase in revenue to $996.6 million. Earnings jumped 54.5% y-o-y to $49.9 million. This brings its 9MFY2023 earnings to $128.4 million, up 9.6% y-o-y, excluding a one-off gain of $30.5 million from the sale of a property in the UK.
 
According to ComfortDelGro, it was able to collect higher fares for running buses in the UK, which had earlier suffered from higher costs without an immediate corresponding increase in contractual revenue it could collect from the UK authorities. This helped the company report an operating profit of $6.1 million for 3QFY2023 after four straight quarters of losses.
 
Meanwhile, demand for taxi and private hire rides in Singapore &ldquo remains high&rdquo although competition has been increasing. The introduction of a &ldquo platform fee&rdquo to be paid by users booking rides on its Zig app since July helped lift the bottom line too. As at Sept 30, ComfortDelGro&rsquo s cash balance stood at $849.9 million, which helped contribute to its net asset value per share of 116.8 cents, versus 118.8 cents recorded in December 2022.
 
Analysts from DBS Group Research are bullish on the stock. Besides the better-than-expected 3QFY2023 numbers, they see further upside with several developments in the company&rsquo s favour, prompting them to raise their target price from $1.65 to $1.67. The platform fee for the Zig app, for one, is seen to add between $12 million and $15 million per year to the company&rsquo s bottom line since it was introduced in July.
 
Separately, with public transport operators given the go ahead to raise fares by 7% amid increasing ridership, there should be both top and bottom line uplift for the company. &ldquo The sequential improvement seen in 3Q23 and for the past two quarters should lend confidence to the recovery trajectory of the group, and that the worst has passed,&rdquo state analysts Andy Sim and Chee Zheng Feng in their Nov 15 note.
 
&ldquo With expected earnings recovery in the coming FY2024, valuations at 1.1x P/B and 13.4x P/E look undemanding, along with its strong balance sheet,&rdquo they add.
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
07-Dec-2023 17:34
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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Silchester continues to raise stake in ComfortDelGro Ameriprise no longer substantial shareholder Silchester International Investors, already a substantial shareholder of ComfortDelGro, continued to raise its stake with more acquisitions. On Dec 1, the fund manager acquired four million shares on the open market at or about $1.29 each or $5.16 million in total. This brings Silchesters stake in ComfortDelGro to nearly 133 million shares or 6.14%, up from 5.96% previously. New York-based Silchester, which was formed in 1994, first emerged as a substantial shareholder of ComfortDelGro on Nov 7 after it bought just over 1.5 million shares at about $1.34 each. The acquisition increased its stake to 5.026% from 4.955% earlier. As the asset manager describes on its website, Silchester focuses on maximising intrinsic value measured via the earnings, assets and dividends of the companies it invests in. We implement this by a strong price discipline &mdash lower multiples of earnings, assets and dividends means more earnings, assets and dividends at the outset &mdash and by a quality appraisal which seeks to identify companies capable of increasing earnings, assets and dividends by their own efforts,&rdquo says Silchester. The acquisition by Silchester came just a week before ComfortDelGro announced on Dec 6 a higher fare structure to help drivers cope with higher costs including the impending Goods and Services Tax starting in the new year. The last fare revision was made just last March. In its note on Dec 7, DBS Group Research, which is keeping its buy call and $1.67 target price on the stock, estimates that ComfortDelGro will enjoy an additional $3 million in commission with the new fare structure. Demand for taxis is not likely to be affected. With overall point-to-point market being driver constrained, we expect demand for taxis to remain strong, says DBS, which is expecting other smaller taxi fleet operators to follow suit. In any case, before the fare structure adjustment, the company has been enjoying a recovery in its earnings. Another fund management firm, Ameriprise Financial, trimmed its stake in ComfortDelGro. On Nov 14, it sold 862,4000 shares on the open market at $1.32 each. It now holds nearly 107.9 million shares or 4.982%, down from 5.021% earlier. As its stake has dropped below the 5% mark, there is no further obligation to disclose additional selling, if any. In its 3QFY2023 ended September business update on Nov 14, ComfortDelGro reported a 3.8% y-o-y increase in revenue to $996.6 million. Earnings jumped 54.5% y-o-y to $49.9 million. This brings its 9MFY2023 earnings to $128.4 million, up 9.6% y-o-y, excluding a one-off gain of $30.5 million from the sale of a property in the UK. According to ComfortDelGro, it was able to collect higher fares for running buses in the UK, which had earlier suffered from higher costs without an immediate corresponding increase in contractual revenue it could collect from the UK authorities. This helped the company report an operating profit of $6.1 million for 3QFY2023 after four straight quarters of losses. Meanwhile, demand for taxi and private hire rides in Singapore remains high although competition has been increasing. The introduction of a platform fee to be paid by users booking rides on its Zig app since July helped lift the bottom line too. As at Sept 30, ComfortDelGro&rsquo s cash balance stood at $849.9 million, which helped contribute to its net asset value per share of 116.8 cents, versus 118.8 cents recorded in December 2022. Analysts from DBS Group Research are bullish on the stock. Besides the better-than-expected 3QFY2023 numbers, they see further upside with several developments in the company&rsquo s favour, prompting them to raise their target price from $1.65 to $1.67. The platform fee for the Zig app, for one, is seen to add between $12 million and $15 million per year to the company&rsquo s bottom line since it was introduced in July. Separately, with public transport operators given the go ahead to raise fares by 7% amid increasing ridership, there should be both top and bottom line uplift for the company. The sequential improvement seen in 3Q23 and for the past two quarters should lend confidence to the recovery trajectory of the group, and that the worst has passed, state analysts Andy Sim and Chee Zheng Feng in their Nov 15 note. With expected earnings recovery in the coming FY2024, valuations at 1.1x P/B and 13.4x P/E look undemanding, along with its strong balance sheet, they add. |
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Potato
Master |
07-Dec-2023 10:49
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... if t ever go to 20cent, i bet we also scared to buy... haa haaa...
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Joelton
Supreme |
07-Dec-2023 10:10
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ComfortDelGro raising taxi fare structure with effect from Dec 13
 
ComfortDelGro is revising its taxi fare structure to help cabbies defray higher operating costs due to rising fuel prices, high inflation and the impending Goods & Service Tax (GST) hike. 
 
ComfortDelGro shares are up 2.31% as at 2.37pm.
 
With effect from Dec 13, the flag down fare will be increased by 50 cents. Depending on the vehicle type, the new flag down fare will be between $4.40 and $4.80. The subsequent distance-based rate will go up to 26 cents from 24 cents.
 
With this adjustment, the estimated fare for a 10km off-peak normal taxi trip will increase by 6.8% or 94 cents from S$13.80 to $14.74. 
 
The definition of " evening peak hour" , where a surcharge is applicable, will be extended by an hour from 5:00pm to 11:59pm, effective Monday through Sunday, including public holidays. 
 
A new peak hour surcharge will also be implemented from 10:00am to 1:59pm on Saturdays, Sundays, and public holidays. 
&ldquo For the past few years, our cabbies&rsquo earnings had been impacted first by the pandemic, and then by higher operating expenses due to increase in fuel prices and high inflation," says Tommy Tan, CEO of the company' s taxi business.
 
" This carefully considered move to update our fare structure is necessary. It ensures that our cabbies receive fair earnings with the rising cost of operations. 
 
" As we analyse taxi demand patterns, there is also a need to review the evening peak hours and introduce weekend peak hour surcharge to ensure adequate taxi supply to meet increased commuter needs during the peak hours," he adds.
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
07-Dec-2023 09:52
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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DBS Research 6 Dec 2023 Taking a cab to cost more, but consumers are willing to pay - ComfortDelgro Groups regular fleet will see S$0.50 increase in flagdown fares and S$0.01 increase for distances and waiting times to S$0.26 - Fare increase targeted at metered fare, with 10km non-peak taxi fare to go up by an estimated 6.8% - Expect other taxi operators to follow suit in the next couple of weeks to retain drivers - Estimated annualised FY24F net profit gain at ~S$2.5m, which equates to 0.8% of our FY24F CDs PATMI forecasts Maintain BUY with TP of S$1.67 ComfortDelgro Group (CDG) announced increase in flagdown, distances and waiting times fares. CDG announced see S$0.50 increase in flagdown fares and S$0.01 increase for distances and waiting times to S$0.26 for its regular fleet. Whereas its limousine taxi will maintain the original flagdown fares with S$0.01 increase for distances and waiting times to S$0.36. Under the revised fare structure, the company estimated that fare for a 10km off-peak normal taxi trip will be 6.8% higher.  Extension of regular peak hour surcharge and introduction of new peak hour period for weekends and public holidays. CDG will extend peak hour surcharge for all taxis by one hour to cover the period from 5pm to 11.59pm (previously 6pm to 11.59pm), effective Monday through Sunday, including public holidays. It also introduced a new peak hour surcharge from 10am to 1.59pm on Saturdays, Sundays and public holidays.  Above fare structure changes targeted at metered booking and for cabbies income remain stable amidst higher costs. With rising fuel prices, high inflation and the impending Goods & Service Tax (GST) hike, cabbies are facing higher operating costs. To ensure cabbies continue to retain similar level of real income, a revised higher fare structure is required. The revised fare structure is expected to be effective at 6am from 13 Dec-23. Estimate S$3m additional commission with the revised fare structure. On the Zig app, consumers can opt for either metered or market driven fare. We believe the higher metered fare will likely set a baseline for market driven fare and lead to potentially similar level of price increase for market driven fares. With overall point-to-point (P2P) market being driver supply constrained, we expect demand for taxis to remain strong even with a 7% price hike. Assuming an overall 7% increase in fare, we estimate that CDG will earn extra S$3m in platform commissions annually, which will translate to ~$2.5m post-tax earnings (0.8% of our FY24F earnings). Maintain BUY with TP of S$1.67. |
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Entropy72
Master |
07-Dec-2023 07:32
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SINGAPORE - Singapore?s largest taxi operator ComfortDelGro will raise flag-down fares by 50 cents for its regular taxis, as well as distance and time-based charges by one cent, from 6am on Dec 13.
This is to help drivers defray higher operating costs due to rising fuel prices, high inflation and the upcoming goods and services tax hike from 8 per cent to 9 per cent starting on Jan 1, the company said in a statement on Dec 6. As at October, ComfortDelGro ran a fleet of 8,841 Comfort and CityCab taxis, or about 64 per cent of the market, based on figures from the Land Transport Authority. Another taxi operator, Prime Taxi, told The Straits Times it also plans to raise its fares. After the adjustments, the starting fare of a ComfortDelGro Hyundai i40 taxi will increase from $3.90 to $4.40, while that for a Toyota Prius and a Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid taxi will climb from $4.10 to $4.60. Flag-down fares for Hyundai Ioniq, Hyundai Kona, Toyota Sienta Hybrid and BYD e6 taxis will increase from $4.30 to $4.80. The increase in ComfortDelGro?s starting fares does not apply to limousine taxis, such as MaxiCab and Mercedes-Benz taxis. Flag-down fares for the limousine fleet will remain at $4.80, after an increase from $4.10 in November. But charges for distance travelled and wait times will rise for all its fleets. For regular taxis, there will be a one-cent increase for distance rates to 26 cents for every 400m under 10km and every 350m after 10km, up from 25 cents, which is inclusive of a one-cent temporary fare tariff in effect till June 30, 2024. There will also be a one-cent increase for limousine taxis, with distance and time-based fares increasing by intervals of 36 cents instead of 35 cents. With the adjustment, the estimated fare for a 10km trip in a normal taxi during off-peak hours will go up by 6.8 per cent, or 94 cents, from $13.80 to $14.74. The operator last raised its fares in March 2022, the first increase in a decade. That adjustment included a 20-cent increase in flag-down fares for both normal taxis and limousines. On Dec 6, ComfortDelGro also announced that it would extend the period during which an evening peak-hour surcharge applies by an hour. It will cover the period from 5pm to 11.59pm from Mondays to Sundays, including public holidays. Currently, the peak-hour surcharge is in effect from 6pm to 11.59pm. A peak-hour surcharge will also be introduced from 10am to 1.59pm on weekends, including public holidays. At present, ComfortDelGro imposes a peak-period surcharge of 25 per cent of the metered fare. Mr Tommy Tan, chief executive of ComfortDelGro?s taxi business, said the increase ensures that its drivers receive fair earnings with the rising cost of operations. ?For the past few years, our cabbies? earnings had been impacted first by the pandemic, and then by higher operating expenses due to an increase in fuel prices and high inflation,? he said. The peak-hour surcharge changes also ensure that there are enough taxis on the road to meet rising commuter demand at peak hours, he said. Since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in April 2020, ComfortDelGro has provided its drivers with rental waivers and continues offering a waiver of 10 per cent. Renting a Toyota Sienta taxi from ComfortDelGro costs $118 daily for up to six days, and $98 per day for more than six days. Rental for a Mercedes-Benz E-class taxi costs $388 a day for up to six days, and $368 daily for a longer rental period. National Taxi Association adviser Yeo Wan Ling said the higher takings from the fare increase will help drivers support their families better. ?The impending increase in GST is also an additional cost on their operations, as it impacts their rental, food and parking expenses, among others,? she added. ComfortDelGro taxi driver Chan Pak Kin, 70, told ST the increased fares do not go far enough to alleviate rising operating costs. ?The additional amount will be erased once I get a fine for speeding or a parking summons. The company should look at reducing the rental costs instead,? he said. The higher fares could also turn potential customers away, he added. They might instead opt for ride-hailing trips with companies such as Grab if they offer lower fares. Mr Macarius Chia, who often uses a taxi or private-hire car to get around, said he will likely opt for ride-hailing services such as Tada when the fare increase kicks in. The 25-year-old freelance photographer said: ?(ComfortDelGro) might lose their customer base. There are many ride-hailing companies that are almost always cheaper and offer occasional ride discounts.? Mr Neo Chee Yong, deputy general manager of motor group Prime, which operates Prime Taxi, said the company will also adjust its fares to help drivers cope with higher operating costs and inflation. He declined to disclose the extent of the increase and when it would take effect. At present, the flag-down rate for Prime, the smallest taxi operator here with 532 taxis as at October, ranges from $4.10 to $4.50. Ms Jasmine Tan, general manager of taxi firm Trans-Cab, said the company will roll out the same peak-hour surcharge adjustments as ComfortDelGro from Dec 13. The company has not decided if fares should be increased, she added. ?Prices for everything, including housing and petrol, are rising, so we want to help our drivers cushion their operating costs,? said Ms Tan. Right now, Trans-Cab, Singapore?s third-largest operator with about 2,100 taxis, applies the same peak-hour surcharge as ComfortDelGro. Strides Premier, Singapore?s second-largest operator with about 2,200 taxis, said it ?will be monitoring the situation closely before making any decision? on fare adjustments. |
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focusy
Senior |
30-Nov-2023 13:02
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This company is one of Maybank' s top picks and is set to earn S$178 m in 2023https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/946-2023/15467-this-company-is-one-of-maybanks-top-picks-and-is-set-to-earn-s-178-m-in-2023 |
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
27-Nov-2023 10:44
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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Analyst TPs
 
CIMB: BUY $1.55
DBS: BUY $1.67
Maybank: BUY $1.55
OCBC: HOLD $1.38
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TikTalk
Supreme |
24-Nov-2023 09:53
Yells: "Anyone miss me?" |
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Stronger resistance around $1.38
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TikTalk
Supreme |
24-Nov-2023 09:50
Yells: "Anyone miss me?" |
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Bro, I am waiting for 20cents to buy.![]() ![]()
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
20-Nov-2023 14:38
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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Analysts mostly lift TPs on ComfortDelGro after further earnings recovery
 
Analysts from UOB Kay Hian Research, DBS Group Research, CGS-CIMB Research, Maybank Securities, RHB Bank Singapore and PhillipCapital are all keeping their &ldquo buy&rdquo and &ldquo add&rdquo calls following ComfortDelGro (CDG) earnings of $49.9 million for the 3QFY2023 ended Sept 30.
 
The analysts at UOBKH, DBS, Maybank and RHB have all raised their respective target prices to $1.69 from $1.61 previously, $1.67 from $1.65 previously, $1.55 from $1.50 previously and $1.50 from $1.46 previously. 
 
Meanwhile, the analysts at CGS-CIMB and PhillipCapital have both maintained their target prices of $1.55 and $1.31 respectively.
 
CDGs earnings for 3QFY2024 were 54.5% up y-o-y, and 9.2% higher q-o-q as the groups public transport segment improved. Its margin also increased to 5.0%, up over the 3.4% recorded in 3QFY2022 and 4.8% in 2QFY2023.
 
UOB Kay Hian analysts Llelleythan Tan Yi Rong and Heidi Mo like CDG for its strong underlying performance during the quarter and its backing by favourable tailwinds. In their report, Tan and Mo note that both of CDGs 9MFY2023 segmental revenue and operating profit formed 69.7% and 65.8% of their full-year forecasts, with operating profit &ldquo slightly below&rdquo expectations. 
 
They write: &ldquo The slight miss was largely due to lower-than-expected core operating margins of 4.3% in 3QFY2023, which we expected at around 4.8% to 5.0% and would have brought CDGs 9MFY2023 operating profit to around 70% of our full-year forecasts.&rdquo
 
Under CDGs public transport segment, the analysts expect CDG&rsquo s margin expansion to continue into FY2024 due to improving rail ridership in Singapore and its UK bus contract renewals and indexation which have started to come through.
 
The analysts note that roughly 70% of UK bus contracts underwent cost indexation by end-3QFY2023, with the remaining contracts expected to be completed within the next two quarters. 
 
Coupled with the upcoming 7% fare increase in Singapore beginning in early December, Tan and Mo expect the ongoing UK indexation and renewals to help support CDG and expand segmental margins going into FY2024. 
 
Meanwhile, margins for CDGs Australian operations softened slightly on a sequential basis, but are expected to stay largely stable going into 4QFY2023. 
 
While CDGs 9MFY2023 taxi operating profit underperformed at 61.1% of Tan and Mos full-year forecasts due to the higher q-o-q operating costs and intense pricing competition, they expect potential upward revisions to CDGs 5% online commission rate in 4QFY2023 and FY2024, which would help close in on the groups peers and boost segmental margins.
 
CGS-CIMB analyst Ong Khang Chuen sees CDGs earnings recovery picking up steam in 2HFY2023 with an 84% y-o-y patmi growth, while PhilipCapitals Paul Chew expects the groups earnings growth to sustain into FY2024, supported by the re-pricing of bus contracts in the UK, improvement in bus efficiency in Australia as drivers return, platform fees raising taxi margins and higher fares driving up Singapore rail profitability. 
 
Maybank analyst Eric Ong adds that CDG is armed with a strong net cash balance of $500 million, and that the group is constantly exploring accretive merger and acquisition (M& A) opportunities, including overseas and adjacent segments to sustain its long-term growth. 
 
He writes: &ldquo Its partnership with Yinson GreenTech will add 400 EV chargers in Malaysia, while CDG Ventures also invested US$2 million ($2.6 million) in car-sharing platform Drive lah that will supply a maximum of 3,000 vehicles to Drive mate in Australia.&rdquo
 
On the groups potential share price catalysts, the analysts agree on CDGs earnings-accretive overseas acquisitions, bus tender contract wins and increase in taxi commission rates, while RHB analyst Shekhar Jaiswal adds that &ldquo more rational competition&rdquo in the point-to-point transport segment could also be a key driver.
 
Conversely, the analysts point to CDGs slower margin recovery due to the inability to pass on costs, higher-than-expected operating costs amid current inflationary pressures and a decline in taxi utilisation or heightened competition as possible downside risks.
 
CGS-CIMBs Ong adds that negative foreign exchange (forex) translation could also have an impact given the strong Singapore dollar, while DBS analysts Andy Sim and Chee Zheng Feng include the resurgence of high inflation in the UK leading to losses due to indexation lag effect as another potential factor.
 
Changes in earnings estimates
 
UOBKHs Tan and Mo have decreased their FY2023 patmi forecast to $183.4 million from $195.7 million previously, but increased their FY2024 to FY2025 patmi forecasts to $238.2 million from $226.9 million previously, on the back of lower margin assumptions for FY2023 and higher contributions from the public transport segment for their FY2024 to FY2025 patmi forecasts.
 
DBSs Sim and Chee have similarly raised their FY2023 to FY2024 earnings marginally by 1% to 4%, while Maybank&rsquo s Ong has tweaked his FY2023 to FY2025 earnings per share (EPS) by 3% to 4% due to slightly better earnings before interest and taxes (ebit) margin assumptions.
 
RHBs Jaiswal has also trimmed his FY2023 earnings by 4.6% but raised his FY2024 to FY2025 figures by 4.1% and 3.1% respectively, attributing it to higher operating costs for FY2023 and anticipated improvements in both the public transport as well as taxi and private hire businesses in FY2024 to FY2025.
 
PhillipCapitals Chew has lowered his FY2023 revenue by 4% and maintained his patmi, while CGS-CIMB&rsquo s Ong noted no changes in his estimates.
 
Source: The Edge
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Potato
Master |
16-Nov-2023 10:53
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Where is Conman? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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josephyeo
Elite |
15-Nov-2023 23:44
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Full year dividend for last financial year was: 8.48 cts include special dividends | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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josephyeo
Elite |
15-Nov-2023 23:41
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ComfortDelgro dividend history:  
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Alignment
Elite |
15-Nov-2023 12:00
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UK business doing better this year but bad economic prospects next year onwards.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
15-Nov-2023 11:56
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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$1.34 is really an  impregnable fortress, hard to break. $52-week high was $1.36.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Joelton
Supreme |
15-Nov-2023 11:08
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ComfortDelGro Q3 net profit rises 54.5% to S$49.9 million
LAND transport giant ComfortDelGro : C52 -0.76% posted a 54.5 per cent rise in net profit to S$49.9 million for the third quarter ended Sep 30, 2023, from S$32.3 million a year earlier.
 
The company noted that its profit after tax and minority interests (Patmi) margin for the quarter rose to 5 per cent, from 3.4 per cent a year earlier. Revenue over the same period rose 3.8 per cent to S$996.6 million, from S$960.3 million a year ago.
 
In a business update on Tuesday (Nov 14), the company noted that its public transport business improved as renewals and indexation in the UK continued to improve margins.
 
Revenue for its public transport business in Q3 grew 3.4 per cent year on year to S$758.5 million, while operating profit gained 23.8 per cent to S$33.8 million.
 
As for its taxi and private hire business, the company noted that demand remains high, although competition is increasing.
 
It added that it has introduced a platform fee to its Zig app since July this year, and that its taxi fleet size holds firm, with a slight increase in market share.
 
Revenue for its taxi and private hire business in Q3 grew 3.3 per cent to S$147.6 million, as operating profit rose 43.5 per cent to S$28.7 million.
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MambaFinancial89
Veteran |
15-Nov-2023 09:36
Yells: "Be greedy when others are fearful. " |
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UK public transport turning a corner - 9M23 revenue in line with expectations at 72% of FY23F estimates, with earnings slightly ahead at 75% - 3Q23 earnings improved sequentially to S$49.9m (+9% q-o-q) on back of positive contribution from UK Public Transport  - FY23F/24F earnings raised by 1.7%/3.4% on higher margins for UK Public Transport and Taxi & Private Hire segment  - Maintain BUY with slightly higher TP of S$1.67 Maintain BUY with higher revised TP of S$1.67. We maintain our BUY recommendation on ComfortDelGro Group (CDG) with higher revised TP of S$1.67 on earlier than expected UK Public Transport turnaround and higher margins for Taxi & Private hire segment. 3Q23 slightly ahead of expectations 9M23 revenue/PATMI at 72%/75% of our FY23F estimates. 9M23 revenue and PATMI came in at S$2.86bn and S$128m respectively, with revenue tracking in line with expectations and PATMI tracking slightly ahead, on expectations of 4Q23 performance to be similar to 3Q23 (3Q23 PATMI of S$49.9m). UK Public Transport turned profitable in 3Q23. UK Public Transport segment reported operating profit of S$6.1m, a turnaround from four consecutive quarters of losses. This was due to UK fare indexation kicking in and renewal of contracts at much higher margins as the bidding environment has turned more sensible and less aggressive, according to management. Current significant indexation effect is expected to extend into 1H23 before moderating. Taxi & Private Hire margin continues to improve with introduction of platform fees and lower rental discounts in China. Operating margin for this segment continues to trend upwards from 18.3% in 2Q23 to 19.3% in 3Q23. However, revenue growth slowed to +5% q-o-q, S$6.8m, largely attributable to S$5-6m in platform fees (effective Jul-23). China operation is expected to remain soft with recovery to pre-COVID level likely in 2H24. Our View PATMI is trending ahead of FY23F estimates, forming 75% of estimates and expect 4Q23 to perform at least on par with 2Q23. UK Public Transport segment has recovered earlier than expected and should see further profitability improvement going into 1H24F. Singapore Public Transport and Other Segments could see a slight sequential tapering off in 4Q23 on higher operating costs and expenses respectively. Overall, on a net basis, we believe the company should be on track to achieve at least the same level of profitability as 2Q23 in 4Q23, thus coming in slightly ahead our original FY23F estimates.  Taxi & Private Hire segment seeing heightened competition. Overall bookings have remained stable q-o-q whereas the number of private hire vehicles (proxy for drivers) in the Singapore market has increased. Management also alluded to aggressive fare pricing by competitors but noted that consumer demand for P2P transport remains strong. Accordingly, we have factored in relatively stable Taxi & Private Hire operating profit for FY24F despite ridership growth tailwinds.  We believe that with industry players heading towards profitability, competition in the P2P transport should ease and CDG&rsquo s diversified private hire operations position it well to emerge as one of the survivors in this market. Singapore Public Transport to see revenue and profitability uplift from 7% fare revision and increasing ridership. We believe continued ridership growth and the upcoming 7% fare revision effective 23 Dec-23 should provide top and bottom-line uplift to Singapore Public Transport segment. Accordingly, we raised our revenue and earnings assumption for the group&rsquo s Singapore rail operations in FY24F. Valuation and forecasts FY23F/24F earnings raised marginally by 1-4%. We raised our FY23F/24F earnings by +1.7%/+3.4% factoring in higher operating margins for Public Transport (UK and SG) and Taxi & Private Hire segments.  Reiterate BUY, TP at S$1.67on higher FY24F book value and earnings. We based our TP on a blended valuation of 5-year average historical PB and EV/EBITDA at 1.3x and 5x, respectively. Based on our revised earnings estimate, the current price represents an attractive 4.9%/6.0% FY23F/FY24F dividend yield. The sequential improvement seen in 3Q23 and for the past two quarters should lend confidence to the recovery trajectory of the group, and that the worst has passed. With expected earnings recovery in FY24F, valuations at 1.1x PB and 13.4x PE look undemanding, along with its strong balance sheet. We reiterate BUY with revised TP of S$1.67. Source: DBS Vickers Report, 15 Nov 2023 |
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