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Latest Forum Topics / YZJ Shipbldg SGD    Last:3.54    +0.08  Post Reply
The Only Shipbuilding Blue Chip in SGX!
huattuatua
Elite
06-Nov-2023 16:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		shiok shiok, watching it to reverse from morning lows of 148/49 to 154/155

think more upside 
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emailpeter
Veteran
06-Nov-2023 12:59     
 
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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) (YZJSGD SP)

Sailing Towards A Strong Year On Multiple Fronts

YZJ&rsquo s 3Q23 business update indicated that the company remains on track to have another strong year for profits and new order wins, backed by an excellent track record in vessel deliveries. In 9M23, new orders for tankers have overtaken containerships. However, new global emissions standards could provide continued impetus for new orders in 2024. Maintain BUY. Raise target price to S$1.92.

WHAT&rsquo S NEW
  • No surprises with solid outlook intact. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) provided a solid 3Q23 business update, guiding that revenue trends thus far have been on track and should not provide any negative surprises to the market for the full year. Operationally, the company maintained its solid track record in delivering on its projects with two 24,000TEU containerships delivered to the Mediterranean Shipping Company being the key highlight for 3Q23.
  • Continues to experience strong order-win momentum. As expected, order win momentum continued in 3Q23 with US$770m in new orders. This has resulted in ytd orders worth US$6.54b, well ahead of the company&rsquo s admittedly conservative guidance of US$3b and in line to possibly exceed our estimate of US$7b.
  • A new phenomenon of surging tanker demand. As presaged by management earlier in the year, YZJ has experienced very strong order wins for oil tankers this year with this segment making up 43% of the company&rsquo s total order wins in 9M23 vs zero orders for such vessels in 2022. The company believes that, heading into 2024, the tanker market will remain buoyant and could see more order flow come through, driven by replacement of older vessels which do not meet new supra national emissions standards.
  • Containership outlook not as bad as feared. During the analyst briefing, YZJ&rsquo s CEO stated that while there is a meaningful supply of containerships in the next 2-3 years, the new order outlook remains reasonably solid given that new IMO regulations will drive the deeper adoption of dual-fuel LNG vessels. At present, the extremely high price of green methanol has led to a pause on orders for methanol-fueled vessels and, combined with the relatively limited supply chain for methanol, the focus is back onto LNG given the wide existence of its supply chain and reliable technology. As a result, YZJ believes that it remains in a strong competitive position to benefit from new orders, and will focus on high margin and high value ships in 2024, ie dual fuel containerships and tankers.
 
 
KEY FINANCIALS  
Year to 31 Dec (Rmbm) 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net turnover 16,768 20,705 24,231 30,502 34,499
EBITDA 3,727 3,244 4,230 4,752 5,318
Operating profit 3,226 2,708 3,695 4,216 4,783
Net profit (rep./act.) 3,699 2,637 3,496 3,918 4,376
Net profit (adj.) 3,666 2,637 3,496 3,918 4,376
EPS (Fen) 92.9 66.8 88.6 99.3 110.9
PE (x) 8.8 12.2 9.2 8.2 7.4
P/B (x) 0.9 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 6.5 5.0 4.4 3.9
Dividend yield (%) 3.0 2.1 4.4 3.1 3.5
Net margin (%) 22.1 12.7 14.4 12.8 12.7
Net debt/(cash) to equity (%) (22.1) (35.4) (46.2) (46.0) (47.3)
Interest cover (x) 53.3 30.4 84.5 124.8 203.7
ROE (%) 10.8 9.9 16.5 14.6 13.9
Consensus net profit - - 3,595 4,038 4,286
UOBKH/Consensus (x) - - 0.97 0.97 1.02
Source: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings), Bloomberg, UOB Kay Hian
 

STOCK IMPACT

  • Interesting comments on regional competition. Management acknowledged that Korean yards continue to be a major force when it comes to LNG vessel construction. However, in all other shipbuilding segments, labour issues (such as workers&rsquo strikes and shortage of skilled labour) have impacted the Korean yards&rsquo competitiveness and ability to deliver on time. YZJ also highlighted that Korean yards face relatively higher costs and its supply chain is also problematic compared to Chinese yards which face more ready availability of steel due to lower demand from the property sector.
  • Willing to expand, but it&rsquo s all about location. With its yard slots full until 2026 and mostly full for 1H27, management stated that it has been in regular discussion with the local government in Shanghai to explore various expansion opportunities. However, this comes with the strict proviso that it will only look to expand if there is suitable space next to its current yards. This would therefore allow YZJ to more quickly and easily expand without disrupting its current operations and extending its management. The company commented that with the overall downturn in a number of economic sectors in and around Shanghai, the local government can now assist and focus more of its attention on the shipbuilding sector, although no timeline was provided.
  • Shipping likely to be sequentially stronger in 2H23. With the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) having staged a mild recovery in 2H23, it would appear that this segment&rsquo s gross profit on a sequential basis will be better. In 1H23, with the BDI averaging 1,157, YZJ&rsquo s shipping segment delivered gross profit of Rmb180m (-20% yoy). With the BDI averaging 1367 in 2H23 to date and 18% higher hoh, we expect the shipping segment to post better numbers. Interestingly, management stated during the analyst briefing that it is in the process of reconfiguring five of its bulk carriers from domestic to international usage, thus underscoring the increasing importance of this business&rsquo recurring revenue stream to YZJ.

EARNINGS REVISION/RISK

  • None.

VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION

  • Maintain BUY with a slightly higher PE-based target price of S$1.92, which is pegged to a target PE multiple of 10.1x (+1.5SD above the company&rsquo s five-year average of 6.8x). We believe the premium to its average PE multiple is justified given the company&rsquo s earnings visibility into 2027 as well as its strong track record of safe and efficient shipbuilding for its international customer base. At 2024 PE of 8.2x, P/B of 1.1x and EV/EBITDA of 4.4x, we believe that the company&rsquo s multiples remain inexpensive. YZJ had an outstanding orderbook for 184 vessels worth US$14.8b as at end-3Q23, with clean energy vessels accounting for c.58% of its orderbook value. We maintain our 2023 orderbook win target at US$7b.

SHARE PRICE CATALYSTS

  • Better capital management.
  • New orders in higher-margin shipbuilding segments, eg dual-fuel containerships, oil and/or LPG tankers.
  • Safe and efficient execution of orderbook and further margin expansion in 2H23.
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Joelton
Supreme
06-Nov-2023 11:14     
 
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Analysts stay positive on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding with recovery of shipping rates and strong new orders
 
CGS-CIMB and DBS Group Research analysts have stayed positive on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding following its 3QFY2023 business update on Nov 2.
 
In the quarter, the shipbuilder won new orders worth some US$770 million for 14 vessels, thanks to a rebound in the oil tanker market.
 
The strong orders momentum has prompted CGS-CIMB analyst Lim Siew Khee to estimate that the company will report new orders totalling US$1 to US$1.5 billion by the end of 2HFY2023. As of 9MFY2023, the company' s order book has reached a record US$14.82 billion.
 
Lim, citing the management, notes that the company expects to win some US$3 billion in orders in the coming FY2024 and as a sign of its growth appetite, it is awaiting the go-ahead from local authorities to let it acquire new land to support expansion in capacity.
 
" Expectations of a rebound in charter rates could be driving the demand for tankers, in our view," notes Lim in her Nov 3 note, where she kept her " add" call.
 
According to Lim, citing data from Clarksons, 1-year time charter rate for medium-range tankers fell from their recent peak of US$31,250 per day in March 2023 to US$24,000 in July 2023. However, in recent days, the rate has gained to around US$26,000.
" Management noted that the current tanker charter rates are at a good level to support customers&rsquo ship costs, but future ship demand would depend on further developments in the global geo-political situation," says Lim.
 
The company delivered a total of 11 vessels were delivered in 3QFY2023 and according to the management, there were no requests by customers to delay orders nor were there cancellations. 
 
Lim expects Yangzijiang Shipbuilding' s earnings to continue to benefit from low steel costs and favourable forex trends. 
 
She projects the company' s gross margins to be at 19.5%, 23% and 24% for FY2023, FY2024 and FY2025 respectively.
 
Her target price of $1.96 is based on a 50% premium to regional yards&rsquo 1.3x average FY2023 book value, justified by Yangzijiang' s track record of generating a stronger margin. 
 
Ho Pei Hwa of DBS Group Research is similarly positive on this counter. 
 
" We came away from Yangzijiang&rsquo s analyst briefing feeling reassured on prospects of the shipyard group," writes Ho in her Nov 3 note, where she has kept her " add" call and $1.90 target price.
 
" While order wins momentum might slow down, the current hefty order backlog provides good earnings visibility through 2026. There is upside risk to our earnings forecasts at 10% CAGR in 2023-2025," adds Ho.
 
She acknowledges that while Yangzijiang Shipbuilding operates in a cyclical shipping and shipbuilding industry, the company has built up a track record showing its ability to weather through the industry' s cycles since listing in 2007. 
 
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is the only shipyard in the region that generated positive annual profits every year since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09, she says,
 
" With orderbook-backed earnings growth and strong net cash of around 30 cents per share as well as 4-5% dividend yield, it is one of our top picks as a defensive play in the current choppy environment," adds Ho.
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s100125
Elite
06-Nov-2023 08:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		YZJ expects to win some US$3 billion in orders in the coming FY2024, it is awaiting the go-ahead from local authorities to let it acquire new land to support expansion in capacity as a sign of its growth appetite.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
06-Nov-2023 08:07     
 
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 Alert Admin 		10/31, 1.44-1.48, closed 1.45, 14m, T-day
11/1, 1.42-1.45, closed 1.44, 22m
11/2, 1.44-1.49, closed 1.49, 23m
11/3, 1.51-1.54, closed 1.52, 40m

Today 11/6 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Game on.
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Winnertakeall
Elite
03-Nov-2023 20:12     
 
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Dynacom orders panamax product tanker newbuildings at Yangzijiang Shipbuilding

Greek shipowner believed to be paying around $106m for a pair of 75,000-dwt tanker newbuildings

Greek shipowner George Procopiou has ended a 17-year order drought for LR1 product tanker newbuildings by signing up a double order in China. 

Shipbuilding sources said Procopiou Dynacom Tankers Management placed the order for the 75,000-dwt pair at tanker newcomer Yangzijiang Shipbuilding instead of its two favourite Chinese shipyards, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co (DSIC) and New Times Shipbuilding
Singapore-listed Yangzijiang is China largest privately owned shipyard and is best known as a container ship and bulk carrier builder.
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huattuatua
Elite
03-Nov-2023 11:54     
 
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 Alert Admin 		solid performance

breaking out of 150 is a positve sign



 
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s100125
Elite
03-Nov-2023 11:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Price upgrade from analyst coming soon along with this positive news.
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Winnertakeall
Elite
03-Nov-2023 10:48     
 
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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding bags US$770 million of order wins in Q3 2023 Published Thu, Nov 02, 2023 · 10:34 pm

YANGZIJIANG Shipbuilding secured US$770 million of order wins for the third quarter of its 2023 financial year. 

This brings the total order wins for the first nine months of the current FY to US$6.54 billion, more than double its US$3 billion target for the whole FY. 

The shipbuilder said in a business update on Thursday (Nov 2) that it has hit a record high order book of US$14.8 billion year to date and delivered 42 vessels out of its target of 57 for the whole year.

With its order book at an all-time high, the company said it has strong earnings visibility up until mid-2027, with 184 vessels set to be delivered from now till 2028. 

Clean energy currently accounts for 58 per cent of the total outstanding order book value. 

It is reconfiguring its vessels to capitalise on a relatively stronger international shipping market. The retrofitting process is expected to complete by January next year. The company also plans to accelerate fleet decarbonisation, particularly among container shipowners, due to their strong financial positions and the onset of fleet replacement cycle. This comes amid a wider industry trend of decarbonising the shipping sector. 


Yangzijiang shares rose 3.5 per cent or S$0.05 to close at S$1.49 on Thursday, before the announcement.

 
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AhTan888
Senior
03-Nov-2023 09:58     
 
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 Alert Admin 		May take a while. Ship losing steam.

FrancisLim      ( Date: 03-Nov-2023 09:41) Posted:

See whether the Ship can float and recover to its $1.60 level?

Or submerged like S chip
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FrancisLim
Elite
03-Nov-2023 09:41     
 
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 Alert Admin 		See whether the Ship can float and recover to its $1.60 level?

Or submerged like S chip
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s100125
Elite
03-Nov-2023 08:22     
 
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 Alert Admin

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding bags US$770 million of order wins in Q3 2023

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/yangzijiang-shipbuilding-bags-us770-million-order-wins-q3-2023
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
03-Nov-2023 08:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		10/30, 1.43-1.47, closed 1.45, 14m, T-day
10/31, 1.44-1.48, closed 1.45, 14m
11/1, 1.42-1.45, closed 1.44, 22m
11/2, 1.44-1.49, closed 1.49, 23m

Today 11/3 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. The numbers have spoken.
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Winnertakeall
Elite
02-Nov-2023 19:28     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SGX - General Announcement 3Q2023 Business update

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/QAP6WI9VGK1YOR0E/776835_YZJSH%20Presentation%20for%203Q2023_final.pdf
 
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
02-Nov-2023 10:01     
 
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 Alert Admin 		10/27, 1.45-1.49, closed 1.46, 15m, T-day
10/30, 1.43-1.47, closed 1.45, 14m
10/31, 1.44-1.48, closed 1.45, 14m
11/1, 1.42-1.45, closed 1.44, 22m

Today 11/2 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Let the numbers do the talking.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
01-Nov-2023 08:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		10/26, 1.45-1.50, closed 1.47, 19m T-day
10/27, 1.45-1.49, closed 1.46, 15m
10/30, 1.43-1.47, closed 1.45, 14m
10/31, 1.44-1.48, closed 1.45, 14m

Today 11/1 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. The beginning of a new month and the penultimate month of 2023. Seeking direction in the rough seas.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
30-Oct-2023 18:03     
 
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 Alert Admin 		10/25, 1.44-1.48, closed 1.45, 21m, T-day
10/26, 1.45-1.50, closed 1.47, 19m
10/27, 1.45-1.49, closed 1.46, 15m
10/30, 1.43-1.47, closed 1.45, 14m

Tue 10/31 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. It is also the last day of October. A turbulent month brought about by war in the middle east. Like most stocks YZJSH was not spared from the sell off. Let's see what happens in November.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
27-Oct-2023 08:09     
 
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 Alert Admin 		10/23, 1.37-1.42, closed 1.41, 30m, T-day
10/24, 1.40-1.48, closed 1.45, 34m
10/25, 1.44-1.48, closed 1.45, 21m
10/26, 1.45-1.50, closed 1.47, 19m

Today Friday 10/27 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Good-buy to a turbulent week.
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fuzzyshares
Veteran
25-Oct-2023 20:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		10/20, 1.41-1.46, closed 1.43, 32m, T-day
10/23, 1.37-1.42, closed 1.41, 30m
10/24, 1.40-1.48, closed 1.45, 34m
10/25, 1.44-1.48, closed 1.45, 21m

Thr 10/26 is the last day to sell contra trades bought on T-day. Sail on.
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AhTan888
Senior
25-Oct-2023 14:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		🇸 🇬 Yangzijiang - Shipyard tour reaffirms positive green orderbook and margin outlook via JPM We have positive takeaways from our recently hosted investor tour of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) shipyards (Xinfu and New Yangzi). Fundamentally, YZJ?s orderbook and earnings outlook remain upbeat with further runway to capture additional ?green? vessel orders and margin expansion. We see opportunities to accumulate on back of recent share price pullback which was due to profit-taking amid concerns over tapering newbuild demand in 2024 and spillover effects from a YZJ Financial Holdings (YZJFH, Not Covered) leadership shake-up. We reiterate our positive view on YZJ with expectations for the company to provide an orderbook update during its 3Q business update (Nov. 3). Maintain OW.
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