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DBS
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Sin_Cos_Tan
Veteran |
22-Jun-2023 12:20
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Good Articles To share DBS sees annual profit to exceed S$10b in medium term DBS' s first-quarter net income of S$2.57 billion beat analysts' estimates, powered by lending income. Return-on-equity surged to 18.6%, from 13.1% a year ago. The stock has lost nearly 8% this year, compared with about a 4% gain on the Bloomberg Asia-Pacific Banks Index. https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/kianweiaritcles/2023-05-22-story-h-270436683-DBS_sees_annual_profit_to_exceed_S_10b_in_medium_term
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pkli899
Supreme |
22-Jun-2023 10:25
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Actually, if u r super long term holder like me, u can ignore the short term price volatility. Sure can have capital gain plus good dividends in the long run one. Current price yield is still above 5%. Better than time deposit, govt bond, etc, the very safe investments. Where to find? |
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pkli899
Supreme |
22-Jun-2023 10:17
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Thanks for sharing.
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Sin_Cos_Tan
Veteran |
22-Jun-2023 09:11
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UBS upgrades DBS to a buy for these 4 reasons.... https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/banking-finance/ubs-upgrades-dbs-buy-these-reasons Among the banks, DBS is the most preferred because " peak ROE of 17% is being discounted by valuations" . During DBS' s investor day, DBS' s management hinted that 17% ROE is sustainable. " With normalized Fed funds rate of 2.5%-3% and assuming specific provisions at 1.5x the current level (6 bps), DBS could continue to deliver a sustainable ROE of 15%-17%, highest among peers" UBS says. |
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henrymilton
Master |
22-Jun-2023 09:03
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go go go | ||||
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henrymilton
Master |
22-Jun-2023 08:58
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give him special award | ||||
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
21-Jun-2023 23:22
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If this was the Analyst who wrote the " Sell" Report, hardly an impressive CV. I don' t think he is qualified to tell me what calls to do with my money, haha. They should really get a more experienced and credible analyst to make such a call on DBS. Yong Hong Tan - Assistant Vice President, Equities Research - Citi | LinkedIn
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leroy55
Veteran |
21-Jun-2023 20:16
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Let let market force decide | ||||
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slingshotpro
Senior |
21-Jun-2023 19:24
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SG Banks - Earnings downgrades nearing an end. Upgrade DBS to Buy.
UBS We are turning more positive on the Singapore banks. 4 reasons - (1) Higher for longer Fed rates could mark a bottom in earnings downgrade. Potential revision of NIM guidance at Q2 results (end July / early Aug) could be a share price catalyst (2) While late cycle concerns are being priced in valuations, this time looks different from the typical "boom and bust" scenario. (3) Strong WM net new money inflows can drive earnings upside and medium term re-rating as sentiment recovers (4) Finally, the sector is trading at 8.2x forward P/E, 2SD below LT avg. Implied COEImplied COE is 3SD above avg and in its 99th percentile (vs c80th perc. for DM banks). We also upgrade DBS to Buy (from Neutral) and make it our most preferred. We maintain a Buy on UOB and Neutral on OCBC. DBS is our most preferred. Why? (1) Peak ROE of 17%+ this year is being discounted by valuations, and rightly so. But what is getting ignored here is the sustainability of this ROE. Even with normalized Fed funds rate of 2.5-3% and assuming specific provisions at c1.5x current, DBS could continue to deliver a sustainable ROE of 15-17%, highest among peers. (2) DBS is also at the forefront when it comes to returning capital to shareholders and has committed to a +24c absolute DPS per year, potentially bringing their payout to around 60%, ahead of 50% peer payout. There is also room for special dividends (~4% of market cap) given excess capital and operating CET1 range of 12.5-13.5%. (3) Valuation at 1.3x forward P/B is pricing in 65-70bps of credit costs, almost 5x guidance. (4) DBS has also seen the highest outflows and biggest adjustment in institutional investor (II) positioning among peers since Jan'23. For DBS, IIs net sold 1.7% of market cap since Jan'23 (vs. peers: 0.2- 0.6% of market cap). We think the risk-reward looks squarely skewed to the upside. We raise our PT to $36.5 (from $33.5) on the back of a higher sustainable ROTE of 16% (vs 15% previously).
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henrymilton
Master |
21-Jun-2023 16:58
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on target | ||||
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mostlybullish
Member |
16-Jun-2023 11:10
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DBS is a BUY at this price - heading gto $32 then $33 and onwards up - bottomed
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hokpin
Supreme |
16-Jun-2023 10:58
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Ask Citi Research analyst Tan Yong Hong to sell as many as possible now if he owns any.
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Ling9345
Master |
16-Jun-2023 10:29
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Waiting for $26.6?this year or wait for STI index to drop below 3000
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mostlybullish
Member |
16-Jun-2023 10:04
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DBS has bottomed - market is stronger and DBS is ready to go past $32 very soon - let us watch it 😊 | ||||
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Joelton
Supreme |
16-Jun-2023 09:31
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DBS on track to hit $10 bil net profit
The outperformance of DBS Group Holdings since group CEO Piyush Gupta took over in 2009 is not due to chance.
When Gupta first joined DBS, he had something of an uphill task. He had inherited a bank that had seen five different CEOs in 10 years and one which had &mdash in the view of most investors &mdash overpaid for Dao Heng Bank in Hong Kong in 2001. Some market watchers reckon that the $10 billion price tag is one of the reasons DBS has not made any transformational acquisitions &mdash similar to Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp&rsquo s acquisition of Wing Hang Bank in Hong Kong &mdash since then.
At DBS&rsquo s Investor Day on May 22, Gupta said: &ldquo When I first joined the company, I asked: What could create a differentiated investor proposition?&rdquo
He adds: &ldquo We would not be just an Asean or North Asian bank. We would do North Asia, Southeast Asia and the Indian sub-continent combined. While we build a network of connectivity, we would go deep into those countries, not inch-deep, mile-wide.&rdquo
DBS&rsquo s markets are China, India, Indonesia and Taiwan. &ldquo If we could do this, it would give us a big advantage. We would do the connectivity flows, anchored in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our presence in these four countries will allow us to gain diversification,&rdquo he continues.
Despite the challenges, during the past 10 years, DBS&rsquo s net profit CAGR of 8.8% is the highest among the local banks. To achieve this, Gupta focused on organic growth and &ldquo bolt-on&rdquo acquisitions such as ANZ&rsquo s retail and wealth management businesses in Singapore, Indonesia, China and Taiwan in 2016. In 2014, DBS acquired Societe Generale&rsquo s private banking business in Asia. In 2020, DBS acquired Lakshmi Vilas Bank in India. In the next year, it acquired a 13% stake in Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank for $1.079 billion, or 1.01x book value.
As Gupta sees it, emerging market and developed market cycles are countercyclical. &ldquo The emerging market cycles are not aligned. We provide diversified access to Asia, technology play and hopefully [we can] leverage on a sustainability agenda,&rdquo Gupta says.
As an example, in China, in the first part of the 2010&ndash 2020 decade, banks did very well. However, in recent years, &ldquo the banks got hammered&rdquo , according to Gupta.
Since 2014, DBS has focused on technology as part of the banking process. Gupta once remarked what kept him awake at night was China&rsquo s Ant Group, the fintech giant founded by Jack Ma, rather than competition from other banks. President Xi Jinping may have taken care of Gupta&rsquo s sleepless nights with curbs on Ant, now a shadow of its former, pre-2016 self.
On June 10, Citi issued a &ldquo sell&rdquo call on DBS for three key reasons. Citi calculates that 1QFY2023 average interest earnings assets or AIEA (or NII÷ NIM) were lower at $617 billion than the consensus estimate of $653 billion. &ldquo Using consensus NIM of 2.08%, we estimate that every $10 billion downside in AIEA lowers NII by 2% of profit after tax,&rdquo the Citi report says.
Secondly, Citi believes that loan growth in Greater China could remain soft with onshore lending rates staying low. In addition, The Wall Street Journal reports that China faces deflation, the opposite problem developed markets face, with both PPI and CPI showing y-o-y declines. Says WSJ: &ldquo Economists say the absence of inflationary pressure means China could experience a spell of deflation &mdash a widespread fall in prices &mdash if the economy doesn&rsquo t pick up soon.&rdquo
The governor of the People&rsquo s Bank of China has said he expects consumer-price inflation to rise in the year&rsquo s second half and exceed 1% in December.
Third, DBS&rsquo s superior ROE to peers could narrow on higher taxes, provisions, and fair value through other comprehensive income (FVCI) loss reversal, affecting balance sheet items such as shareholders&rsquo equity. Hence, if earnings continue to accrete to shareholders&rsquo funds while there is a writeback in DBS&rsquo s securities book, that would boost shareholders&rsquo funds and cause ROE to moderate. However, NAV would rise and because DBS is often valued on a price/NAV basis, its share price may receive a boost.
Despite Citi&rsquo s bearishness, DBS&rsquo s net profit may attain the $10 billion mark this year. In February, Gupta said the banking group had a &ldquo shot at getting to $10 billion&rdquo in net profit for its FY2023 ended December, which would be announced next February.
That $10 billion target was again repeated by group CFO Chng Sok Hui at DBS&rsquo s Investor Day in May, who said: &ldquo In 2023, we gave guidance for the full year for profit to hit $10 billion and for ROE to reach 17%.&rdquo
Chng also outlined DBS&rsquo s growth drivers, which could help reach its target. These include a superior deposit franchise which has extended to foreign currencies, its credit risk management which has ensured its credit costs are lower than peers, and the continued growth of the high ROE, capital-light businesses of wealth management, global transaction services (GTS) and treasury and markets (T& M) income.
One of DBS&rsquo s focuses is to become a technology company. A few years ago, at a Christmas party, Gupta joked that the acronym DBS is increasingly likely to stand for &ldquo Digital Bank of Singapore&rdquo . But while DBS had deepened its tech prowess, digibank had been hit with three outages in the past two years.
On May 5, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) imposed an additional capital requirement on DBS &ldquo following the widespread unavailability of DBS Bank&rsquo s digital banking services on March 29 and a subsequent disruption to its digital banking and ATM services on May 5&rdquo .
Together, with the additional capital requirement imposed on DBS in February 2022 for a previous disruption to digital services, this translates to approximately $1.6 billion in total additional regulatory capital &mdash which is the main negative surrounding DBS&rsquo s share price performance.
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Ling9345
Master |
13-Jun-2023 15:40
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Talk only free | ||||
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Joelton
Supreme |
13-Jun-2023 10:08
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Citi reinstates coverage on DBS with ' sell' call and target price of $26.60
Citi Research analyst Tan Yong Hong has resumed coverage on DBS Group Bank D05 1.2% after a period of restriction since January.
In his report dated June 10, Tan rated DBS with a &ldquo sell&rdquo call and a target price of $26.60. His target price is based on his FY2023 &ndash FY2024 P/B of 1.12x.
Tan&rsquo s &ldquo sell&rdquo call comes on the back of risks to the bank&rsquo s net interest income (NII) as its average interest earning assets (AIEA) could fall below the consensus estimate of $653 billion for FY2023, which is up by 5% y-o-y.
In the 1QFY2023 ended March 31, DBS&rsquo s AIEA stood at $617 billion, down 4% q-o-q.
Loan growth risk is another downside factor for Tan as he sees the bank&rsquo s loans from Greater China (making up about 30% of the bank&rsquo s total loans) remaining soft with onshore lending rates still low.
Finally, DBS&rsquo s superior return on equity (ROE) to its peers could narrow on higher taxes and provisions as well as a reversal in a $5.2 billion swing in fair-value reserves, which lifted the bank&rsquo s FY2022 ROE by 67 basis points (bps).
In spite of the negatives, the analyst has recognised DBS&rsquo s early digital transformation and its focus on shareholder returns.
That said, he is proposing investors conduct a &ldquo pair trade&rdquo between DBS and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) O39 -0.16% , with investors underweighting DBS and overweighting OCBC.
&ldquo OCBC&rsquo s earnings have [a] lower risk. Its 1QFY2023 AIEA was closer to FY2023 cons and its Greater China loans are a smaller share of the total,&rdquo says Tan.
He adds: &ldquo OCBC could positively surprise on [its] 1HFY2023 dividend per share (DPS), based on a 50% payout ratio plan and targeted 14% common equity tier 1 (CET-1) ratio plus ongoing risk-weighted assets (RWA) optimisation.&rdquo
With its share price trading at below 1x P/B, OCBC offers valuation support, in Tan&rsquo s view.
That said, Tan is also remaining &ldquo neutral&rdquo on OCBC with a higher target price of $12.50 from $12.20 previously.
&ldquo In a global downturn or recession, Singapore suffers given its large exposure to developed markets. DBS and OCBC tend to suffer and lose any premium over 1x P/B,&rdquo he writes.
&ldquo In the past two downcycles, DBS / OCBC valuations fell to 0.8x P/B. With OCBC currently trading below [its] book value, we believe it has downside support. Our economists forecast a US recession in 4Q2023-1Q2024,&rdquo he adds.
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Red_Bean
Member |
09-Jun-2023 09:16
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如 果 你 被 疯 狗 咬 了 一 口 ， 正 常 的 人 是 不 会 反 咬 回 去 。 最 好 的 方 法 是 远 离 它 ， 不 理 它 。 不 然 它 会 跟 你 死 缠 烂 咬 。 又 没 踩 到 它 ， 却 无 端 端 被 疯 狗 咬 。 。 。 要 赶 快 去 打 狂 犬 病 疫 苗 , 並 通 知 有 关 当 局 处 理 它 。 。 。 以 免 再 有 人 无 辜 受 害 被 咬 。 Full stop! |
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Winnertakeall
Elite |
08-Jun-2023 19:38
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Singapore Blue-Chip Stock Offering a Great Mix of Growth and Dividends
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Red_Bean
Member |
08-Jun-2023 08:55
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老 鸟 ?新 鸟 ?小 人 ？ 大 人 ？ 大 人 不 计 小 人 过 。 老 鼠 不 敢 公 开 在 open market出 现 ， 只 会 在 black market做 它 们 的 勾 当 。 黑 猫 ？ 白 貓 ？ 会 提 老 鼠 的 猫 才 是 好 猫 。  小 心 别 有 用 心 之 徒 。 |
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