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SembCorp Marine- The new Frontier.
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 09:09
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Temasek doesnt want SMM but is legally obliged to offer MGO.  So they offered at legally least price of 8c | ||||
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chart_expert123
Master |
22-Oct-2021 09:08
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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MGO lifted anytime.  anybody informed when is last day? Or else, holding a time bomb only, wake up in the morning, price free falling, oh MGO option is no longer there.
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 09:06
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That' s why I have said many weeks ago that 8c is an artificial floor price to give a false sense of security to those who think SMM is worth more.  If SMM drops to 7c now, before expiry of MGO, many SHs will opt for MGO and TH will get many SMM shares.  Because of this 8c security now, some SHs will continue to hold on to SMM.  Once no more MGO and no guarantee of 8c,  SMM will plunge
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weekaykee
Master |
22-Oct-2021 09:04
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Similar sentiments. The price closely flirting with 8 cts for a prolonged period is a sign of inherent weakness, waiting to plunge below 8cts once MGO expires. Unless a new positive development is announced before the MGO expires.
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TigerPlay
Master |
22-Oct-2021 08:58
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What will happen if SCM now fall below 8cts, say trading at 7cts now? Many will sell to TH at 8cts right? Then what happen? TH will get alot of SCM share,maybe close to 100%, this is not what they wanted in the first place. They cannot squeeze anymore money from SH laiow. Now you should guess who is the Buddha hand that is holding the buy q at 8cts right....guess lor
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 06:39
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could lack of supervision, weak project management, loss of skilled workers, supply chain problems, etc, have compounded the challenges?
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chart_expert123
Master |
22-Oct-2021 06:32
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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https://www.offshore-energy.biz/repairs-on-johan-castberg-fpso-hull-to-delay-completion-by-a-year/
According to the PSA, a number of causes for these challenges have been identified by the investigation. Namely, SCM was a new fabrication contractor for Equinor. The operator had not previously used SCM for newbuilding of offshore production facilities. This yard?s experience was primarily with ship repair Furthermore, there have been some changes in construction sites. The contract specified that fabrication and assembly should take place at the Tuas Boulevard Yard. During the first construction year, fabrication of the living quarters and some of the hull modules was transferred to three other yards. The safety authority also said that SCM underestimated the scope of front-end engineering design (Feed), but milestones were nevertheless maintained. The PSA added that welding expertise and quality control at SCM were inadequate. Equinor failed to get to grips with this problem early enough, and the project?s governing inspection and test plan was not complied with. |
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 06:32
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 06:18
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chart_expert123.  Well said
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 06:17
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You are another wise one.  Some claim that SMM trading at 8c now is a sign of strength as it doesnt go to 7c, 6c, 5c.  Flawed logic.  I see consistent trading at 8c now is a sign of severe weakness.  The only support is MGO.  Once removed, SMM will plunge 
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chart_expert123
Master |
22-Oct-2021 06:16
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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Don't always twist the facts, mislead and complicate a simple issue.
What is the reason pull out from sembmar to Norway shipyard. Design issue? Of course is not. The reason is sembmar cannot rush all the works for the design change and the original scope which cause further delay. If can sembmar can pump in 200-300% manpower to rush the works and faster than Norwegian yard, will they pull it out? Again, go and study solitaire case, the conversion project also involved similar design issue on Hull and caused delay. The owner was dare to pull it out and built it Scotland was due to they were confident they could recover the huge cost for the balance work in Europe shipyards from sembcorp through contract. Anyway, I am not speculating. The example I quoted is as per past project. The Norwegian owner surely is holding the rights to claim the compensation from sembmar through international courts. It will take many years if sembmar refuse to pay. Why solitaire case was compensated with 3 times of original contract, 400over mio, part of it is expensive 67mio lawsuit fee. This FPSO contract? 400mio or more? Can be billion dollars of claim loss. Terrible.
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 06:12
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Wise
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 06:11
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Agree.  We shd all do our own calculations and diligence
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ckmpd1
Supreme |
22-Oct-2021 06:09
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It shd remain abt 8c until MGO expires. Some see it as good news.  I see it as bad news as long as it cant go much above 8c because it shows no support.  No reason for SMM to go below 8c as long as MGO is on.  But after that?
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better
Elite |
22-Oct-2021 00:24
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The one year is for the integration of the topsides. The hull, which Sembmarine is supposed to build is likely 99% complete. The last 1%, consisting likely of some welding rectification work could be done while the topsides integration is ongoing in Norway to save time. As mentioned in article below, the fabrication of the topsides in Norway was also delayed by Covid and only ready recently for integration. April 2021 According to Equinor, the yard is responsible for correcting all deviations in quality and costs related to repair of welding defects are covered by Sembcorp Marine, according to the contract. The cross-checks and improvements are almost completed and are followed up closely by Equinor, the Norwegian oil firm said. The hull for the Johan Castberg production vessel is scheduled to be transported to Stord on board the Boka Vanguard heavy-lift vessel late 2021, however, the Covid-19 pandemic still adds uncertainty to all schedules, the company said. In October 2020, Equinor reported that the Johan Castberg project would be delayed by one year, with planned production start in the fourth quarter of 2023.  " The main cause of the delay is the Covid-19 pandemic and associated infection control measures introduced at the yards in Singapore, Stord, Verdal and Sandnessjø en. Other challenges include the progress in Singapore and deviations in welding quality," Equinor said.
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naoshingo
Elite |
21-Oct-2021 23:38
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I suspect when SM asked for the rights issue...they are expecting this project will not pass. The report states that  Johan Castberg FPSO requires the Norway yard 100% manpower and a year to complete. SM being such a seasoned builder, I think in Q1/Q2 2021, they should knew the outcome. Thus, the urgent rights issue. I am just speculating... Anyways,,,,a lot of uncertainties... Nevertheless, they are still hiring. So it will not close shop...  
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better
Elite |
21-Oct-2021 22:53
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Based on the investigation report by Norway' s Petroleum Safety Authority, Equinor, who supplied the fatigue analysis software program seems more at fault than Sembmarine. In any case, no yard has more lawsuits on its neck than Keppel OM. Also, don' t you think  SCM and also other yards would have learned the lesson from the Solitaire episode 20 years ago and put in the appropriate termination and force majeure clauses to protect themselves? Sept 2020 Norway' s Petroleum Safety Authority is launching an investigation into the problems with the construction of the giant FPSO for Equinor' s new Johan Castberg offshore development.  " The PSA became aware on 25 June 2020 that Equinor had identified major challenges with the quality of welds in the hull of the Johan Castberg floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit. In addition, the authority became aware that errors had been found in the analysis program used for fatigue calculations," the agency wrote in an announcement Wednesday. " Corrective work means that the FPSO hull will be delayed . . . Furthermore, efforts to correct weld and fatigue-analysis errors create uncertainty about the structure&rsquo s integrity over the producing life of the field." The PSA has appointed a team of experts to look into why the project team for Johan Castberg did not identify the analysis mistakes and faulty welds earlier in the process. It will aim to establish the decisionmaking timeline, assess the consequences of the weld issues for safety, analyze causal factors and find any potential regulatory breaches.  According to environmental NGO Bellona, the problems with the Johan Castberg FPSO became known in October 2019 and the software fatigue analysis issues have been known since April. The software' s designer says that the calculation errors are manageable and will not force a major rework of the project. " The issue is mainly seen on FPSOs with weather-vaning capabilities and may impact the estimated fatigue life of the vessel, which has no immediate consequence for its structural safety,&rdquo the firm wrote.  Morten Ruth, the project director for Johan Castberg, told E24 that the shipyard will have to redo about 3,000 linear meters of welding and change four seawater intakes, but it will not require not a major rebuild of the vessel. " To put this a bit in context, we estimate that the [time] to repair the welds in Singapore, it corresponds to about five percent of the remaining hours [of work], roughly speaking," Ruth said. " This is a lot about organization and getting this done in the right sequence. It is not the volume as such that worries us." The repair work has been substantially delayed by coronavirus-related slowdowns at Sembcorp, the Singaporean yard building the FPSO, he said. These challenges will likely set Johan Castberg' s deployment back by about one year.   
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chart_expert123
Master |
21-Oct-2021 22:45
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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Pipe laying vessel worth around 200-300mio vs a fpso which can worth 1-5bil.
The implications are huge. doubt if Norwegian will just simply let go the FPSo which has schedule for a oil and gas field production to earn 40mio per day. 🤔 🤔 🤔 .
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Sgvale
Supreme |
21-Oct-2021 22:38
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8c better sell & leave. Once becomes 7 series no hope. Been at 8c ding dong for sometime. | ||||
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chart_expert123
Master |
21-Oct-2021 22:35
Yells: "Only buy stock with revenue or net cash flow growth!!!!" |
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142.34mio ended up compensated 424.8mio. 3 times
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