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SQueeze Master	20-Jun-2020 10:51        SQueeze About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thanks for summarising. If they redeem it halfway, then all the yields will be in between those figures too. And I believe after 10 years, it will be on the upper half of the range. Unlikely that it will be halved from now. marketuncle      ( Date: 20-Jun-2020 10:37) Posted: How to value MCBs? As the MCBs trade below the dollar, do they become more attractive? After the last rights issue, there were 150 new shares and 295 MCBs issued for every existing 100 shares, bring the total to 250 shares and 295 MCBs yet to be converted to shares. So long as SIA redeem the MCB within 10 years, each provides a compounded annual yield of 6%. However, if the MCBs are not redeemed, every 100 will be converted at the principal value of $180.611 to 37.3 SIA shares priced at $4.84 each (10% premium to post rights TERP).  Let&rsquo s consider two extreme scenarios on the MCB conversion: 1. SIA shares plunged by 50% to $2.42 by 2030.  So the MCB conversion will technically pull up the share price to $3.73, i.e. (250 x $2.42 + 295 x $4.84)/(250 + 295) = $3.73. Every $100 invested in MCB at $1 now will result in $139.13, i.e. 37.3 x $3.73. Giving a compounded annual yield of just 3.4%, nearly half the reported annual yield of the MCB. 2. SIA shares doubled to $9.68 by 2030.  So the MCB conversion will technically pull down the share price to $7.06, i.e. (250 x $9.68 + 295 x $4.84)/(250 + 295) = $7.06. Every $100 invested in MCB at $1 now will result in $263.34, i.e. 37.3 x $7.06. Giving a compounded annual yield of 10.17%. Thus, the real annual yield of the MCB if not redeemed, will depend very much on the share price of SIA shares then. The likely scenario 10 years on will probably be somewhere in between and the lower the current MCB trades below the dollar, the more attractive the compounded annual yield. For example, the MCBs last traded at 94.5 cts, implying a compounded annual yield of 3.9% even if the worse scenario as mentioned above occurs. To retain the original 6% annual yield even if this happens, the MCB will have to trade around 75 cents. In short, the MCB' s current ROI is about 3.9% to 10+%. It will be range, rather than a fixed number.
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marketuncle Veteran	20-Jun-2020 10:37        marketuncle About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	How to value MCBs? As the MCBs trade below the dollar, do they become more attractive? After the last rights issue, there were 150 new shares and 295 MCBs issued for every existing 100 shares, bring the total to 250 shares and 295 MCBs yet to be converted to shares. So long as SIA redeem the MCB within 10 years, each provides a compounded annual yield of 6%. However, if the MCBs are not redeemed, every 100 will be converted at the principal value of $180.611 to 37.3 SIA shares priced at $4.84 each (10% premium to post rights TERP).  Let&rsquo s consider two extreme scenarios on the MCB conversion: 1. SIA shares plunged by 50% to $2.42 by 2030.  So the MCB conversion will technically pull up the share price to $3.73, i.e. (250 x $2.42 + 295 x $4.84)/(250 + 295) = $3.73. Every $100 invested in MCB at $1 now will result in $139.13, i.e. 37.3 x $3.73. Giving a compounded annual yield of just 3.4%, nearly half the reported annual yield of the MCB. 2. SIA shares doubled to $9.68 by 2030.  So the MCB conversion will technically pull down the share price to $7.06, i.e. (250 x $9.68 + 295 x $4.84)/(250 + 295) = $7.06. Every $100 invested in MCB at $1 now will result in $263.34, i.e. 37.3 x $7.06. Giving a compounded annual yield of 10.17%. Thus, the real annual yield of the MCB if not redeemed, will depend very much on the share price of SIA shares then. The likely scenario 10 years on will probably be somewhere in between and the lower the current MCB trades below the dollar, the more attractive the compounded annual yield. For example, the MCBs last traded at 94.5 cts, implying a compounded annual yield of 3.9% even if the worse scenario as mentioned above occurs. To retain the original 6% annual yield even if this happens, the MCB will have to trade around 75 cents. In short, the MCB' s current ROI is about 3.9% to 10+%. It will be range, rather than a fixed number.
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SAVIORFOREVER Supreme	20-Jun-2020 09:33        SAVIORFOREVER About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 2  Alert Admin	Monday another down day? Trade with ? and DYODD
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drwealthz Senior	20-Jun-2020 01:16        drwealthz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	agree.. since now quite ubiquitous to see " dumb money" in the market and " risk investors" -- Millenials trade differently -- they got more access to data, and they make more informed decisions (i think) Due_Dilligence      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 22:15) Posted: We need to be equip with beside FA and TA, we need to be equip with knowledge on SA. Sentimental Analysis Trader130      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 21:26) Posted: Let us Guess Monday opening 😂 Trade with Sentiment 🚀
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drwealthz Senior	20-Jun-2020 01:14        drwealthz About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	sentiment for direction + future outlook for perceived fair value .. my take.  since sentiment is a hot topic here  Trader130      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 21:26) Posted: Let us Guess Monday opening 😂 Trade with Sentiment 🚀
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Due_Dilligence Veteran	19-Jun-2020 22:15        Due_Dilligence About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	We need to be equip with beside FA and TA, we need to be equip with knowledge on SA. Sentimental Analysis Trader130      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 21:26) Posted: Let us Guess Monday opening 😂 Trade with Sentiment 🚀
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halleluyah Supreme	19-Jun-2020 22:10        halleluyah About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	haha...give u a tip...if u die die want 4.00 then during pre close key in higher than 4.00 so u pao dapat wan... investor999      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 21:57) Posted: --- Post Removed by User ---
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Bennytan23 Senior	19-Jun-2020 21:30        Bennytan23 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Check the trading platform for bid/ask.. can see volume there Ljxxxx      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 12:50) Posted: Where do you get the information from? Can give me the link? hobbes12      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 11:06) Posted: Should not go below $4. There is a huge 2.6 mil vol at the $4 bid price.
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Trader130 Supreme	19-Jun-2020 21:26        Trader130 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Let us Guess Monday opening 😂 Trade with Sentiment 🚀
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nngeeh Veteran	19-Jun-2020 14:04        nngeeh About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This will apply to other bonds .... but not to SIA. If upon maturity, the SIA share pricess is way less than $2.67 (technical conversion price), the bond price will drop too ..... as the bond will be converted to shares at this technical price.... uiop1223      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 11:01) Posted: Notice that MCBs are falling also. Bonds carry risk and will correlate to mkt sentiments of the company. Just that its less volatile than shares and can recover principal if company doesnt collapse upon maturity.
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investor999 Elite	19-Jun-2020 13:50        investor999 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is exchanging..Forced to sell then queue lower..So numbers get bigger
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john_ric Supreme	19-Jun-2020 13:40        john_ric About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 1  Alert Admin	next week < 4...
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investor999 Elite	19-Jun-2020 13:39        investor999 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	yes market depth..You need this to know the buyers and sellers
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hobbes12 Senior	19-Jun-2020 13:00        hobbes12 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	On your trading platform you can check the Market Depth for the stock. Now it is 997k vol bid at 4.01 and 3 mil vol bid at 4.   Ljxxxx      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 12:50) Posted: Where do you get the information from? Can give me the link? hobbes12      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 11:06) Posted: Should not go below $4. There is a huge 2.6 mil vol at the $4 bid price.
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rlong8288 Master	19-Jun-2020 12:59        rlong8288 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Bid Bid Vol(K) Ask Ask Vol(K) 4.010 997.4 4.020 163.5 4.000 3,040 4.030 137.4 3.990 1,019.7 4.040 94.5 3.980 1,116.3 4.050 85.8 3.970 410.2 4.060 33.9 3.960 442.1 4.070 66.8 3.950 439.8 4.080 101.6 3.940 61.1 4.090 119.7 3.930 33.6 4.100 181.9 3.920 43.4 4.110 65.8 3.910 49.5 4.120 82.1 3.900 818.7 4.130 75.5 3.890 19 4.140 47.8 3.880 137.8 4.150 120.2 3.870 11.7 4.160 56.7 3.860 24.6 4.170 21.4 3.850 98.6 4.180 55.6 3.840 9.8 4.190 45.3 3.830 29.7 4.200 178.7 3.820 31.7 4.210 68.6
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rlong8288 Master	19-Jun-2020 12:57        rlong8288 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	$4 q is now 3 millions  Ljxxxx      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 12:50) Posted: Where do you get the information from? Can give me the link? hobbes12      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 11:06) Posted: Should not go below $4. There is a huge 2.6 mil vol at the $4 bid price.
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Ljxxxx Member	19-Jun-2020 12:50        Ljxxxx About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Where do you get the information from? Can give me the link? hobbes12      ( Date: 19-Jun-2020 11:06) Posted: Should not go below $4. There is a huge 2.6 mil vol at the $4 bid price.
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NT1825 Master	19-Jun-2020 12:34        NT1825 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Does anyone have information on planned flights in Aug and aircraft utilisation rate 50% 45%.? When vaccine is 100% available my guess is load will return to 75% Main reason is almost all companies still in recovery mode and hence cash tight
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investor999 Elite	19-Jun-2020 12:26        investor999 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I don' t understand why UOB KH only start to annouce downgrade now. Or it is because I am just a poor laymen investor without access to privileged information until it is made public. Everywhere I google, everyone is negative on airline shares. But I chose to put my investment in a safe company. I only looking at long term. Everyday I see the trading, the market makers are always picking up the sold shares and place then two or more bids higher. So they always make the small profits in between. As investor, I pledge my shares with broking houses to margin so that I won' t touch my FD' s and CPF. But they have the right to do anything to my pledge shares.  I did not know they changed from buy call to sell call. Now I am stucked as I have margin calls. If I sell my shares, the postion is closed, they do not owe me. And now they tell me to take profit when the share price is so down. Isn' t this funny? I found many youtube video on why I should sell my mother shares and buy the rights. Ok I get it. But why are they so good to tell me how to make money? So today there is a big buy queue at $4.00. If you sell your shares, the buy will disappear as there no need to buy back. Position closed. So why should I sell my shares. Now I know why SGX previously showed institutions were the biggest sellers and investors were the biggest buyers of SIA shares. I feel this is not correct!!
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investor999 Elite	19-Jun-2020 11:12        investor999 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	after they take profit first then they wait at 3.80
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