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Qanghoo Supreme	07-Jul-2019 16:12        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It' s always DYODD.  I' d like to see shortists short it down further too. Stocky901      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 15:56) Posted: With this kind of uncertainty, more dips are expected for coming weeks. have to be careful.. rlong8288      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 15:43) Posted: would buy only when the dust settle, no point taking the risk with order reducing not worth taking the risk
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Stocky901 Supreme	07-Jul-2019 15:56        Stocky901 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	With this kind of uncertainty, more dips are expected for coming weeks. have to be careful.. rlong8288      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 15:43) Posted: would buy only when the dust settle, no point taking the risk with order reducing not worth taking the risk. Qanghoo      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 13:55) Posted: This is the most critical fact that everyone has to take note of ie, if it is true that it is a case of someone allegedly bribing an SMM officer n not, unlike KC' s case, where KC was penalised in the SB case to win contracts.  I was gonna make this pt too.  So, in this case, is SMM guilty of wrong doing?  At most, it' s an oversight issue where there was elleged derelection of duty on SMM" s management' s part (in which case, those involved ought to be disciplined).  Even if Brazilian law holds that SMM is liable, I wld figure that the penalty wld be far less severe than that meted out to KC.  N importantly too, SMM wldn' t be penalised by CPIB under SG law (unlike where KC was penalised), I wld figure too.  If SMM is liable for penalty under SG law, then in so many other cases involving coys, n even public agencies, whose staff were convicted of corruption, the coys themselves wld have likewise been convicted too.  One case that comes to mind was the ' sex for contracts' case (remember?).  So, I' ve revised my personal position on the SMM case n started hooting its shares already.
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rlong8288 Master	07-Jul-2019 15:43        rlong8288 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	would buy only when the dust settle, no point taking the risk with order reducing not worth taking the risk. Qanghoo      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 13:55) Posted: This is the most critical fact that everyone has to take note of ie, if it is true that it is a case of someone allegedly bribing an SMM officer n not, unlike KC' s case, where KC was penalised in the SB case to win contracts.  I was gonna make this pt too.  So, in this case, is SMM guilty of wrong doing?  At most, it' s an oversight issue where there was elleged derelection of duty on SMM" s management' s part (in which case, those involved ought to be disciplined).  Even if Brazilian law holds that SMM is liable, I wld figure that the penalty wld be far less severe than that meted out to KC.  N importantly too, SMM wldn' t be penalised by CPIB under SG law (unlike where KC was penalised), I wld figure too.  If SMM is liable for penalty under SG law, then in so many other cases involving coys, n even public agencies, whose staff were convicted of corruption, the coys themselves wld have likewise been convicted too.  One case that comes to mind was the ' sex for contracts' case (remember?).  So, I' ve revised my personal position on the SMM case n started hooting its shares already.  smoothsailing      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 13:22) Posted: Think still a lot of misunderstanding over new search on SMM Brazil(EJA). https://clickpetroleo.com.br/estaleiro-da-sembcorp-recebe-visita-da-pf-operacao-lava-jato-acoes-caem/ The NEW important point is that Guilherme Esteves de Jesus(GEJ), the agent for SMM in Brazil, is alleged by the Brazil investigators of possibly transferring bribes to the boss of SMM Brazil, Martin Cheah, who we understand is uncontactable. If true, this means that SMM' s agent may have bribed SMM' s boss in order to retain him as agent, ie: a kickback. This does not support the main accusation that SMM bribed SeteBrazil/Petronas at all. It is totally irrelevant. Even if Guilherme(GEJ) is guilty, the crime committed is very different from that of SMM bribing SeteBrazil/Petrobras, it is just between two individuals, does not involve any public servant, it does not involve Petrobras, and any penalty involved will be very, very low compared to if SMM was guilty of bribing SeteBrazil/Petrobras. In fact, I think it is possible that SMM informed the Brazil prosecutor of their own internal findings concerning Martin Cheah and Guilherme(GEJ), and that' s why SMM Brazil(EJA) had the follow up search done on its offices. So the " raid" was done at the request of SMM itself, in order to tie up or close up the investigation. Of course, the Brazil prosecutors insist that SMM is guilty of bribing, but I suspect they have no good evidence and this case is moving to a no-fault settlement somewhere down the road for a much smaller penalty than Keppel.
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Jamesbond007 Veteran	07-Jul-2019 15:35        Jamesbond007 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	If so, SMM will soo bounce back.
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runaway Senior	07-Jul-2019 14:41        runaway About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Buy- take a calculated risk that it will rebound. Sell - take a calculated risk of making less if it rebounds. No right or wrong.
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Qanghoo Supreme	07-Jul-2019 13:55        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	This is the most critical fact that everyone has to take note of ie, if it is true that it is a case of someone allegedly bribing an SMM officer n not, unlike KC' s case, where KC was penalised in the SB case to win contracts.  I was gonna make this pt too.  So, in this case, is SMM guilty of wrong doing?  At most, it' s an oversight issue where there was elleged derelection of duty on SMM" s management' s part (in which case, those involved ought to be disciplined).  Even if Brazilian law holds that SMM is liable, I wld figure that the penalty wld be far less severe than that meted out to KC.  N importantly too, SMM wldn' t be penalised by CPIB under SG law (unlike where KC was penalised), I wld figure too.  If SMM is liable for penalty under SG law, then in so many other cases involving coys, n even public agencies, whose staff were convicted of corruption, the coys themselves wld have likewise been convicted too.  One case that comes to mind was the ' sex for contracts' case (remember?).  So, I' ve revised my personal position on the SMM case n started hooting its shares already.  smoothsailing      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 13:22) Posted: Think still a lot of misunderstanding over new search on SMM Brazil(EJA). https://clickpetroleo.com.br/estaleiro-da-sembcorp-recebe-visita-da-pf-operacao-lava-jato-acoes-caem/ The NEW important point is that Guilherme Esteves de Jesus(GEJ), the agent for SMM in Brazil, is alleged by the Brazil investigators of possibly transferring bribes to the boss of SMM Brazil, Martin Cheah, who we understand is uncontactable. If true, this means that SMM' s agent may have bribed SMM' s boss in order to retain him as agent, ie: a kickback. This does not support the main accusation that SMM bribed SeteBrazil/Petronas at all. It is totally irrelevant. Even if Guilherme(GEJ) is guilty, the crime committed is very different from that of SMM bribing SeteBrazil/Petrobras, it is just between two individuals, does not involve any public servant, it does not involve Petrobras, and any penalty involved will be very, very low compared to if SMM was guilty of bribing SeteBrazil/Petrobras. In fact, I think it is possible that SMM informed the Brazil prosecutor of their own internal findings concerning Martin Cheah and Guilherme(GEJ), and that' s why SMM Brazil(EJA) had the follow up search done on its offices. So the " raid" was done at the request of SMM itself, in order to tie up or close up the investigation. Of course, the Brazil prosecutors insist that SMM is guilty of bribing, but I suspect they have no good evidence and this case is moving to a no-fault settlement somewhere down the road for a much smaller penalty than Keppel.
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smoothsailing Member	07-Jul-2019 13:25        smoothsailing About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Another interesting point is that SMM' s agent Guilherme Esteves de Jesus lives 300m away from the President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro. https://horadopovo.org.br/lava-jato-prende-vizinho-de-condominio-de-ronnie-lessa-e-jair-bolsonaro/
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smoothsailing Member	07-Jul-2019 13:22        smoothsailing About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think still a lot of misunderstanding over new search on SMM Brazil(EJA). https://clickpetroleo.com.br/estaleiro-da-sembcorp-recebe-visita-da-pf-operacao-lava-jato-acoes-caem/ The NEW important point is that Guilherme Esteves de Jesus(GEJ), the agent for SMM in Brazil, is alleged by the Brazil investigators of possibly transferring bribes to the boss of SMM Brazil, Martin Cheah, who we understand is uncontactable. If true, this means that SMM' s agent may have bribed SMM' s boss in order to retain him as agent, ie: a kickback. This does not support the main accusation that SMM bribed SeteBrazil/Petronas at all. It is totally irrelevant. Even if Guilherme(GEJ) is guilty, the crime committed is very different from that of SMM bribing SeteBrazil/Petrobras, it is just between two individuals, does not involve any public servant, it does not involve Petrobras, and any penalty involved will be very, very low compared to if SMM was guilty of bribing SeteBrazil/Petrobras. In fact, I think it is possible that SMM informed the Brazil prosecutor of their own internal findings concerning Martin Cheah and Guilherme(GEJ), and that' s why SMM Brazil(EJA) had the follow up search done on its offices. So the " raid" was done at the request of SMM itself, in order to tie up or close up the investigation. Of course, the Brazil prosecutors insist that SMM is guilty of bribing, but I suspect they have no good evidence and this case is moving to a no-fault settlement somewhere down the road for a much smaller penalty than Keppel.
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Stocky901 Supreme	07-Jul-2019 11:23        Stocky901 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	NAV likely to go to 90+ cents after the fine, if any. runaway      ( Date: 07-Jul-2019 08:18) Posted: As a big guy like Keppel, you can take a hard blow and stand up again. The same can not be said to SembMarine. The same hard blow may send it straight to ICU immediately.
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runaway Senior	07-Jul-2019 08:18        runaway About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	As a big guy like Keppel, you can take a hard blow and stand up again. The same can not be said to SembMarine. The same hard blow may send it straight to ICU immediately.
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Starship Supreme	06-Jul-2019 14:50        Starship About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Police raid a reminder that Sembcorp Marine' s Brazil woes are far from over 5/07/2019, 6:19pm SINGAPORE (July 8): Singapore&rsquo s formerly thriving offshore oil and gas sector has received yet another rude jolt: The fallout from the multi-year bribery-for-contracts scandal in Brazil is not over. In a pre-market announcement on July 3, Sembcorp Marine said the Brazilian federal police had conducted a search of the premises of its subsidiary Estaleiro Jurong Aracruz (EJA) in Brazil. Investors were spooked. SembMarine shares crashed from $1.54 to $1.41 on July 3, before recovering to close a cent higher at $1.42 on July 4. Some $250 million in market value was destroyed in these two days. According to SembMarine&rsquo s announcement, the raid by the Brazilian police, the date of which has not been specified, was in relation to on-going investigations against EJA&rsquo s former consultant, Guilherme Esteves de Jesus. He was arrested on March 27, 2015. The announcement also named, for the first time, a SembMarine executive as part of the probe: Martin Cheah Kok Choon, former president of EJA. News of the police raid in Brazil came just 12 days after SembMarine, in an unusual move, took a $2 billion loan from its parent company  Sembcorp Industries. The companies said the loan would shore up SembMarine&rsquo s balance sheet to put it in a &ldquo better position&rdquo for the recovery in the sector. KGI analyst Joel Ng observes that the $2 billion line was divided into two portions. The first, $1.5 billion at a rate of 3.55% a year, is to be used by SembMarine to retire a bond. The remaining $500 million, carrying a rate of swap offer rate plus 1.91% a year, is meant for working capital, which Ng believes is set aside in case of any fines that might arise from the Brazilian case. In December 2017, SembMarine&rsquo s rigbuilding peer and fellow government linked company,  Keppel Corp, paid a fine of US$422 million in a deferred prosecution agreement (DPA). Keppel had paid bribes in Brazil for contracts to build oil rigs used by  Petroleo Brasileiro  (PetroBras), the state-owned oil producer. When news of that broke, SembMarine executives were tight-lipped, just as it has been since 2015, issuing statements in relation to the bribery allegations made against de Jesus. In a March 30, 2015 statement that was filed with the stock exchange, SembMarine said it was &ldquo unable to comment on the truth or otherwise of these allegations and its internal (legally privileged) investigations are continuing&rdquo . The statement also said, &ldquo The company and the group have a strict anti-bribery poli­ cy and do not condone any action that will result in the violation of any country&rsquo s anti-corruption laws. The company and the group also do not and will not tolerate any improper business conduct.&rdquo One and a half years after Keppel&rsquo s DPA, industry watchers do not expect a quick resolution to SembMarine&rsquo s situation. &ldquo An early resolution is unlikely, given the scale of these investigations,&rdquo says Tania Chin, partner at Whithers KhattarWong. According to Billy Huang, CEO of RHT Forensics & Disputes Advisory, a DPA, as was the case with Keppel, could take place. &ldquo It appears that it is too early for the authorities to arrive at this juncture, as investigations are still ongoing, and Sembcorp&rsquo s subsidiary&rsquo s role in the alleged bribery scandals has not been determined.&rdquo Huang points out that Brazilian authorities took nearly three years to complete the investigations on Keppel and to settle the matter conclusively. Now, should SembMarine be found guilty of bribery as well, and should it agree to a settlement and pay a fine, the matter should be resolved in the same time it took for Keppel, or even sooner. This is because the Brazilian authorities already have prior experience dealing with such cases, says Huang. Regardless, SembMarine is operating in a much-changed market. Owing to structural shifts in the global energy market, the price of crude oil has struggled to regain ground to the previous peak of more than US$100 a barrel. Spending throughout the entire oil production chain is now much more restrained. In short, it will be even more difficult for players such as Keppel and SembMarine to maintain the same share of business they had enjoyed. As SembMarine moves ahead with the case, a key consideration for the company and its investors would be whether its ability to operate in resource-rich Brazil would be affected. &ldquo Someone being found guilty, and punished, is not the end of the story,&rdquo warns Adrian Tan of TSMP Law Corp. &ldquo Arresting the executive is not a needle mover for the company, but corrupt or illegal activities for the company may have a large impact that will pique the concerns of investors.&rdquo https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/management-corporate-governance/police-raid-reminder-sembcorp-marines-brazil-woes-are-far-over
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JesseTyler Veteran	05-Jul-2019 17:17        JesseTyler About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	hmmm.. in the end no movement at $1.42. As mentioned by bro Stocky901, provided there aren' t any news updates in the weekend, otherwise, the price movement for next week will likely to fluctuate largely. Happy weekends to all! JesseTyler      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 09:54) Posted: Unlikely, at least for next week. The pressure is there, but the support line is around $1.32 to $1.36 (which is why I mention $1.36 to $1.45 for today). On the upside, but if Sembmarine breaks $1.45, then we can expect around $1.50 next week. Stocky901      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 09:47) Posted: Short term likely to go below 1.30
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Qanghoo Supreme	05-Jul-2019 14:39        Qanghoo About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thx, brother. Pt noted.  To me though they' ve so often given so many hopeful tps that were so mouth-watering but somehow never got there - far from it in fact.  The egs I gave on UOL n HK Land are valid.  Before last July' s PCM (cooling measures), their tp for UOL was 10+, n HK Land also above 10 (for HK Land I can' t find my notes now, so it' s recalling from memory).  Also, they had a call of 1.18 for Chip Eng Seng.  All these were way above trading range ard that time n, with benefit of hindsight, unattained.  Oh, n they also had a tp of 2.90 for this submarine ard this time last yr.  Problem with these calls is, the got lots of people so excited that they kept straining till neck break but never got to smell anything.  pasttime      ( Date: 04-Jul-2019 20:40) Posted: Qanghoo, greetings do not think the their target price for uol and hk land is lofty. consider these price targets conservative. like uol, their nav is 11+.  and the cited target price is only 70+% of nav.  their payout  of dividend is covered by earnings. although i think uol is quite stingy on the dividend. their product is selling. like tre ver is a well received development, 577 units sold since last year (almost 80% sold) . their hotel brand name is building well think does not have much value attached to the brand name yet. hk land owns many prime office and retail space in hk and singapore. the outlaws in hk are causing concerns and it is attractive at current price.  trading at price/book 0.41 these are solid companies that can be hold for long term with lower dividend yield but their asset appreciations over time is a winning point. only for those who want to hold long term.    both are prudent in their property development and recurring income management. vested interest. caveat emptor.   Qanghoo      ( Date: 04-Jul-2019 18:19) Posted: Over the last few yrs, how many of their buy tps were accurate?  Eg, lofty px for stocks like UOL n HK Land were too distant to even spot with a telecope !!!
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Stocky901 Supreme	05-Jul-2019 09:57        Stocky901 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Provided no more new 'updates' over the weekend. dyodd. JesseTyler      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 09:54) Posted: Unlikely, at least for next week. The pressure is there, but the support line is around $1.32 to $1.36 (which is why I mention $1.36 to $1.45 for today). On the upside, but if Sembmarine breaks $1.45, then we can expect around $1.50 next week. Stocky901      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 09:47) Posted: Short term likely to go below 1.30
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JesseTyler Veteran	05-Jul-2019 09:54        JesseTyler About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Unlikely, at least for next week. The pressure is there, but the support line is around $1.32 to $1.36 (which is why I mention $1.36 to $1.45 for today). On the upside, but if Sembmarine breaks $1.45, then we can expect around $1.50 next week. Stocky901      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 09:47) Posted: Short term likely to go below 1.30? JesseTyler      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 09:32) Posted: Estimated target range for Sembmarine today: $1.36 to $1.45
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Stocky901 Supreme	05-Jul-2019 09:47        Stocky901 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Short term likely to go below 1.30? JesseTyler      ( Date: 05-Jul-2019 09:32) Posted: Estimated target range for Sembmarine today: $1.36 to $1.45
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JesseTyler Veteran	05-Jul-2019 09:32        JesseTyler About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Flexible   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Estimated target range for Sembmarine today: $1.36 to $1.45
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troxxy Senior	05-Jul-2019 09:27        troxxy About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	engine getting ready liao.
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Stocky901 Supreme	05-Jul-2019 09:19        Stocky901 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	DBS estimated $200M to $400M could be used for the potential fines. This may write off up to 17% of the NAV. quite scary..
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Maller Elite	05-Jul-2019 07:22        Maller About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Think will have good rise with this? TraderBen      ( Date: 04-Jul-2019 22:56) Posted: O&M counters need another few years. Maller      ( Date: 04-Jul-2019 17:51) Posted: Dbs just gave a buy call to it? Sembcorp Marine: BUY Last Traded Price: S$1.41 Price Target (12-mth): S$2.40 (Upside 70.2%) Please refer to their report for more info. Dyodd. Huat arr
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