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Starhub
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Belteshazzar
Master |
30-Mar-2019 09:10
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U may choose with google
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bryanachong
Member |
29-Mar-2019 17:49
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1. Isn' t TPG riding on Starhub' s network and satellite? So if TPG goes up, Starhub will only stand to gain? 2. What would be the cut loss average price? 3. Dividend - When is the first annoucement? |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
29-Mar-2019 15:43
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Equities Earnings rebound likely to be delayed DBS Group Research 15 Feb 2019 Key summary points 4Q18 underlying earnings were 10% below our estimates Cyber security business and digital transformation efforts may offset cost savings from other operations FY19F dividend yield of 4.9% not appealing enough to await earnings recovery in FY20F. Downgrade to HOLD with a revised TP of S$1.92 Download Company Guide Underlying earnings of S$42m (-19% y-o-y, -26% q-o-q) was below our expectations of S$47m. Cost of equipment sold dipped 11% y-o-y primarily due to the on-going migration of postpaid subscriber base to SIM-Only plans and lower volume of premium handsets sold. Cost of services also declined 6% y-o-y with StarHub?s on-going efforts to cut content costs as part of the restructuring of StarHub?s pay-TV business. Marketing expenses climbed up on the back of accelerating fibre migrations, bringing EBITDA to S$ 111m (-22% y-o-y, -25% q-o-q). Excluding one-off adjustments of S$26m pertaining to postpaid mobile revenue and adjustments to an onerous contract, StarHub reported an underlying EBITDA of S$137m in 4Q18. Faced with higher overheads and shrinking profits, in 3Q18 StarHub announced cost-cutting measures aimed at achieving S$210m in cost savings over a three-year period starting from 4Q18 onwards. However, these costs savings failed to materalise in 4Q18 as StarHub reinvested part of these savings to expand its cyber-security venture, resulting in staff expenses growing by 11% y-o-y. Depreciation and amortisation expenses for the quarter edged up 14% y-o-y (13% q-o-q) largely owing to the adoption of SFRS 16, which requires the capitalisation of certain operating lease assets of StarHub. Accordingly, StarHub reported an underlying net profit of S$42m (-19% y-o-y). Variable dividend policy from FY19.StarHub is transitioning to a new dividend policy whereby the telco plans to pay a quarterly cash dividend of ~2.25 Scts per share for FY19F, guaranteeing 9 Scts per share, down from the current 16Scts annual dividend. With this, the telco is switching from a fixed to a variable dividend policy from FY19F and plans to distribute at least 80% of net profit each year. The management has indicated that any payment above 9 Scts to be in line with the new dividend policy would occur in the last quarterly payment for the year. 4Q18 service revenue of S$457m (-7% y-o-y, flat q-o-q) was below our expectations.StarHub reported 4Q18 mobile service revenue adjusted for one-offs of S$ 208.6m (-7% y-o-y, -2% q-o-q) driven by growing uptake of SIM-Only plans, and lower data add-ons, IDD and voice usage. The one-off S$16.6m contribution pertains to a loyalty program for mobile customers. StarHub?s post-paid mobile ARPU fell S$3 q-o-q to S$41 in 4Q18 with the launch of cheaper SIM-Only plans with bigger data bundles issued towards the end of the quarter. Revenues from Pay TV services dipped 4% q-o-q (-19% y-o-y) with the loss of ~14,000 subscribers, marginally below the previous quarter?s loss of ~15,000 subscribers. Enterprise segment proved to the only resilient business segment and continued on its growth momentum Outlook for 19/20F StarHub to capitalise some opex with the adoption of SFRS 16. Adoption of SFRS 16 will result in some operating leases being capitalised as right-of-use (ROU) assets leading to higher depreciation and amortisation charges from FY19F onwards. This should result in StarHub?s opex relating to operating leases edging down while D&A attributable to the capitalised leases will drive D&A expenses higher. While this should result in a favorable improvement in EBITDA, it is unlikely to trickle down to benefit StarHub?s earnings due to higher D&A. Migration to fibre and accelerated depreciation of the HFC network to weigh on FY19. In November 2018, StarHub announced plans to cease providing broadband and Pay-TV services using its Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) Network by June 2019, ahead of the earlier proposed date of disconnection in 2020. We expect to see a sharp rise in StarHub?s cost of services in FY19F as migrations to NBN accelerate, partially offset by reduction in content costs with the on-going restructuring of StarHub?s Pay TV business. Accordingly, HFC Network will be fully depreciated by 1H19, placing a further burden on StarHub?s income statement in FY19F Staff cost savings likely to be eroded by the expansion of Ensign. In 3Q18, StarHub entered into a joint venture agreement with Certis Cisco, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Temasek Group, to pool the cybersecurity assets of StarHub and Certis to create Ensign, a pure-play cybersecurity service provider. While the combined operations were marginally profitable at the point of formation, 4Q18 turned into a loss-making quarter for the cybersecurity company which reported losses of S$12m. Cyber security operations are heavily labour intensive. The S$30m staff cost savings that StarHub accrued is likely to be overridden by the expansion efforts of Ensign as StarHub scales-up cyber security operations. After factoring the above cost escalations, we have revised down our FY19/20F net profit by 8%/11% |
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runaway
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29-Mar-2019 08:15
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Mobile technology is a necessity. You need a mobile phone and a service provider as an enabler. It is an evergreen business, and will be here to stay for a long time. The 3 players have established their deep-rooted foothold, another new kid on the bloack is easily brushed off. For the new kid on the block, It is like a budget airline trying to compete with a commercial airlines. Yes, the budget airlines may take away some crumbs that drop on the floor, but the loaf is intact with the commercial airlines. We are left with two choices now, three in the past. Buy Singtel or Starhub when they is a dip. |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
28-Mar-2019 14:42
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150 broken | ||||
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Belteshazzar
Master |
28-Mar-2019 14:04
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$0.09 dividend = 1730.22mx 0.09= 155.7m for 2019. U think 2019 earnings will b more than 2018, at -~200m
~50m left after deducting dividend + cash on hand , is it enough to pay the 282m??? |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
28-Mar-2019 13:09
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Need $$$
We project industry capex (ex-spectrum) to ease 1.9% y-o-y to S$1.16tr in 2019F. We do not expect players to spend heavily, given already-high 4G coverage/speeds, while 5G network rollout is only expected to begin in 2020F and in a gradual manner. There is an outstanding amount of S$846m (SingTel: S$376m, StarHub: S$282m, M1: S$188m) to be paid to the government for the 700MHz spectrum that was allocated during the general spectrum auction in Apr 2017. |
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Belteshazzar
Master |
28-Mar-2019 12:05
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5G Rollout Recently in Parliament, Minister for Communications and Information, Mr. S Iswaran, noted that the government intends to roll out 5G in 2020, with a public consultation to be held shortly so as to shape the regulatory framework and spectrum allocation. 5G would indeed allow telcos to provide new offerings especially to enterprise customers, but we believe that incumbents are proceeding cautiously, given the capex requirements. Moving forward, we believe incumbents would be looking to share 5G infrastructure, as it would likely be untenable for all 4 MNOs to build out their own |
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Libin85
Member |
28-Mar-2019 10:28
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I got a feeling the telcos iare just going to chip in to share the cost of building 5G. It is too costly to be absorb by any 1 telco.
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Belteshazzar
Master |
28-Mar-2019 09:05
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Again testing 150, think today will go below 150 | ||||
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Belteshazzar
Master |
28-Mar-2019 08:56
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If sembc is interested, maybe.
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
28-Mar-2019 08:43
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Who gonna buy at ' much more' ? Asiata?
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tonylim
Master |
28-Mar-2019 08:36
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If M1 is worth 2.06, shouldn' t Stahub worth much more? Any views on this?
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Dreamer_1234
Senior |
27-Mar-2019 20:22
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At least the fights almost make me want to sell at lost ! Heng I hold on!
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runaway
Senior |
27-Mar-2019 20:15
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All the negative talks have failed to drive the price down, why? One simple answer - it is undervalued! 4-corner fight? My toes are laughing. Does it bother NTUC, Cold Storage and Seng Song when they see a new provision shop in their neighborhood? |
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Libin85
Member |
27-Mar-2019 17:21
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I have the same feeling and i think given the small geo- size, the 3 or 4 telco have to pool in money for the 5G network infra. I also curious if there will be consolidation in the next 1 year as having 4 telco is simply too much. To be honest i think consumer no longer need sms and phone call (traditional) and everything is about DATA. whatsapp call etc. Data will also become cheaper going forward so hope Starhub can re-position itself and focus on 1 or 2 things instead of all. This will help to cut operation cost per every dollar generated.
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Observers
Elite |
27-Mar-2019 17:05
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Singtel - National champion. Singapore is just a side dish. Easily destroy the competition with cash eg by cornering content, football leagues in pay-tv until MDA stepped in. M1 - Taken over by Keppel (Parent Kep T& T going for scheme meeting). Probably has the most thought out and best able to execute plan for the future since its privatised. Temasek board must have been convinced of Kep strategy to approve the GO. TPG - New entrant, can invest in the latest telco (Huawei?) equipment for lowest cost per consumer industry against the incumbents yesteryear tech sunk costs. Important to note that all 3 local operators have Temasek as the parent organization. So what is Starhubs strategy? |
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Libin85
Member |
27-Mar-2019 14:17
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I think those who vested in this counter already knows about the balancesheet and cashflow status. And there wouldn' t be any value in winning a " dictionary" war over Excess, Extra or Net debt etc. I understand telecommunication companies tend to have large investment in infra, wireless tower, cables and equipments etc etc but is the current gearing ratio healthy compared to the industrial standard/average ? 2ndly, most of us know that starhub, unlike singtel, only have business in 1 country. What are the potential revenue channels beside the traditional business.. Even Apple.co is struggling and moving towards a service provider. Is focusing on cyber-security business in the enterprise segment enough to offset the revenue loss, margin loss in the Paid-TV subscription, mobile plans etc. Any expect can give a holistic view on this industry? |
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alidaud
Senior |
27-Mar-2019 12:04
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Support 151 going to broke http://cakap.net/gann-square-of-9/?s=starhub& cp=1.50 |
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KAMAL0883
Supreme |
27-Mar-2019 11:44
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went StarHub shop at Tampines Mall few days ago to sign up Broadband n TV package, business still very booming as usual leh, the Q and crowds so much more and longer than the M1 shop nearby | ||||
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