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K1 venture News
DoChun
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28-May-2017 18:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Another analysis from internet - 
The sentiment on the market seems to focus on the book value of 44 cents per share.
The shareholders of K1 Ventures will vote on 29 March to decide if they want the company to sell off its holdings of  KUE 3 LP and Guggenheim Capital LLC.
Many people sold off the shares because the share price of 86 cents was way higher than its book value of 44 cents.
I do not agree with the approach of using book value.  Book value is historical value.  It refers to the price that K1 Ventures bought the assets years ago.
Nobody in the right mind will buy an asset based on book value.
If you buy a house from an owner who has lived there for 20 years, you will not buy the house based on the price he had bought 20 years ago.
You will buy based on current market value.  You do not care if the owner bought the house at the price of $30,000 or $50,000 when the market value is $500,000.
That is why I decide to take a look at the EPS of K1 Ventures. 
The buyers will definitely base on the historical earnings to determine the potential earnings of the asset.
The EPS of K1 Ventures for the last quarter from 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2016 is 1.53 cents.  The half year EPS is 3.95 cents.
I rather take the lower figure of 1.53 cents per quarter.  That means the earnings per share is about 6 cents on an annual basis.
The current share price is about 12 times the earnings per share.  This is the PE ratio.
That is a reasonable price as the S& P 500 index is trading at the PE ratio of 25.  Hopefully the assets will be sold at PE ratio above 15.  After the effect of taxation and currency exchange, shareholders can still get back more than 70 cents per share. 
The next question is: when to buy?
Selling assets take time.  I do not know if there are ready buyers.  If yes, are these private or public companies?
It will take longer to complete the sale to a public company.
The buyer has to hold EGM to seek the approval of shareholders.  The next step will be regulatory approval, and to arrange for financing matter.
If the buyer is a large fund, it will save a lot of time. 
The fund manager still has to seek regulatory approval, and arrange for financing, but there is no need to seek shareholders&rsquo permission.
No matter what, it will take up a few months before cash is available for distribution to the shareholders of K1 Ventures.
That is why I am in no hurry to grab the shares of K1 Ventures at 70 cents per share.
It is better to wait and see if the remaining assets can be sold at a higher PE
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Johntanny0
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28-May-2017 16:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Very detailed analysis. There is another forum that discussed the value of investments for reference.

https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1149-post-139995.html#pid139995

So far all are looking at the share price being signficantly higher than the book price of 0.43-0.48.
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nngeeh
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27-May-2017 23:46     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi Bro, 

I looked thru the announcement again and I don' t think you can extrapolate the figures based on Guggenheim' s AUM values. 

In 2011, K1 invested 100M on 100,000 preferred units (7% coupon) that comes free detachable 11,111,111 warrants. In 2012 financial report, they mentioned they received a further 250,000 common units. As Guggenheim is not a public list company, we do not know the actual total number of Guggenheim' s common shares and the values of these common shares. 

If we cast aside the values of common shares and warrants... and just focus on preferred shares... the   net values will the par value of $100M + 7% annual coupon. If you look at the preferred shares of Hyflux or Genting... the value doesn' t appreciate like the common shares. Even if the AUM of Guggenheim has grew from $80b to $260b, the values of the preferred shares will still be par values + interest. It won' t translate into 3x (260/80)... the value of preferred shares will remain the same + the potential coupon. Surprisingly, in the EGM circular on page 9 ...the projected book value is USD 101M.. which is almost the par value of the preferred shares. It seems that they ignore the value of common shares and warrants. Is anyone aware on whether the preferred share is convertible or non convertible?

The main question now is how to determine the value of 250,00 common shares and 11,111,111 warrant?   On page 7 of the circular, it is mentioned below that their investment is equivalent to around 5% of capital... is the capital here referred as 5% of the total shares of Guggenheim?

* In addition, the Company has the right to receive the Additional Guggenheim Units (being less than one per cent. of the total common units in the capital of Guggenheim on a fully diluted basis, and when combined with the Guggenheim Interests, less than five per cent of the capital of Guggenheim on a fully diluted basis) on the Repurchase Date  

If this 5% is referred to as the number of shares... then... we could use the standard calculation using AUM values. The market cap of fund house is normally around 2.5-7% of the AUM values. As Guggenheim manages around $260B, 2.5% is around $6.5B. If K1 owns 5%... the estimated values should be USD$325M. This is equivalent to SGD$0.75/share. The KUE   worthy around SGD$0.0159 per share and cash worths SGD$0.0577 per share. This translate into SGD of $0.82 per share.

This estimate is dependent on whether K1 will get 5% equivalent of Guggenheim market cap and the value is based on 2.5% of AUM values. If they use 

Appreciate if anyone can help to provide your view.

Quant27      ( Date: 24-May-2017 22:22) Posted:

The market clearly does not understand how valuable guggenheim partners is. According to this website, the Guggenheim partners more than doubled their assets under management (AUM) from end 2010 to march 2012. It states that their AUM on march 2012 is US$160 bn which means that they had at most US$80 bn at the end of 2010. 

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20120804/ISSUE01/308049976/baseball-business-and-bones-are-signs-of-guggenheims-growth

Now, Guggenheim' s AUM is now at least US$ 260 billion (see  https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/firm/) which means that 

conservatively the US$100m stake bought in June 2011 is at least US$100*(260/80)m = US$325m (assuming that firm value is proportionate to AUM and that the AUM is close to 80m in June 2011)

This means that the value of K1 shares is at least S$ 1.39*325/433.128535 = S$ 1.04 (since there are 433.128535 million shares outstanding for K1) which translates to a return of 72 percent at the current price of S$0.605 per share!

Indeed i think that Guggenheim' s AUM should be at least US$ 300 bn which means that the fair value of K1 is S$1.20. 

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Johntanny0
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27-May-2017 14:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi 

thanks very much for the info. Have a good weekend. 

Vested at 0.88. Regretted for not cutting loss when it was in the 0.70+.  For those who are vested in this stock, let' s hope the 2 investments can be sold at a higher than expected price. 
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nuthing03
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27-May-2017 13:39     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi, if u look at the Note 8 of circular that is sent out Mar 17, the management has provided its guidance on it. I think k1 ventures will go through liquidation proceedings just like Saizen Reit.

http://www.k1ventures.com.sg/admin/files/k1%20-%20Circular%20to%20Shareholders.13032017.pdf

Johntanny0      ( Date: 27-May-2017 12:12) Posted:

Hi all, I would like to know what will happen k1 shares after it has sold both of its only subsidiaries? Will there be a private offering to shareholders to buy back all the shares or the shares will just delist since the company don't have other major investments?

Thanks in advance for the advice:)

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Johntanny0
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27-May-2017 12:12     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi all, I would like to know what will happen k1 shares after it has sold both of its only subsidiaries? Will there be a private offering to shareholders to buy back all the shares or the shares will just delist since the company don't have other major investments?

Thanks in advance for the advice:)
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nuthing03
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26-May-2017 13:26     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Guys, correct me if i am wrong.   k1 Ventures invested in  Guggenheim Capital, LLC whose operating subsidiaries includes  Guggenheim Partners. Also, if u look at the AR2011,  Mr Green served on the Executive Committee of Guggenheim Partners. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=6157625
http://www.k1ventures.com.sg/img/pdf/k1_2011_ar.pdf

 

waters      ( Date: 26-May-2017 08:38) Posted:

Good morning all, just o confirm this company https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/ is the company which k 1 invest in?
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waters
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26-May-2017 08:38     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Good morning all, just o confirm this company https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/ is the company which k 1 invest in?
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nuthing03
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25-May-2017 14:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I dont think there will be any potential dividend after the disposal of KUE. Only after Guggenheim disposal, then we can see dividends.
Coy cash a/c is  10188000 which translated to $0.024/ share. (if i include creditors, the amount will be smaller)
KUE disposal, i will take the carrying value stated in AR16 as basis, which is equal to $0.0155/share (4800000/433123585)*1.4. Even if kue can 3x or 4x, the amount is quite insignificant as compared to Guggenheim.

 

nngeeh      ( Date: 25-May-2017 10:22) Posted:

There was a capital reduction in Nov 16. Will hope that after the potential disposal of Knowledge Universe Education (KUE) which consists mainly of cash and properties .... they will do another capital distribution.

The main shareholder is keppel ... Ah Gong' s company. Should be quite safe :)

 

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nngeeh
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25-May-2017 11:55     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Agreed.

DoChun      ( Date: 25-May-2017 10:42) Posted:

Share price is falling is a good sign..
show " someone" are interested
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DoChun
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25-May-2017 10:42     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Share price is falling is a good sign..
show " someone" are interested
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nngeeh
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25-May-2017 10:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		There was a capital reduction in Nov 16. Will hope that after the potential disposal of Knowledge Universe Education (KUE) which consists mainly of cash and properties .... they will do another capital distribution.

The main shareholder is keppel ... Ah Gong' s company. Should be quite safe :)

 
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john_sun
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25-May-2017 10:00     
 
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 Alert Admin 		-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512

The quality of the analysis here is good, I am glad to join this community. I am a portfolio manager from EDMW Capital and I will contribute more on the Keppel Group of companies in the days to come.
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nngeeh
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25-May-2017 09:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Furthermore, they are in the advance stage for disposal of Knowledge Universe Education (KUE). There could be cash coming back after the disposal .... I believe BB is pushing down to collect. Just like Imperium clown .... when they announce intention to dispose the properties in Japan ... the share price tank to below 0.07 ... but eventually ... shot back to 0.12+.

nngeeh      ( Date: 25-May-2017 09:24) Posted:

Bro, Thanks for the tips. I just checked K1 venture' s website, and it is still stated that Guggenheim is part of their current principal investments which the portpolio has grew over the past few years. Just went in this morning.

Quant27      ( Date: 24-May-2017 22:22) Posted:

The market clearly does not understand how valuable guggenheim partners is. According to this website, the Guggenheim partners more than doubled their assets under management (AUM) from end 2010 to march 2012. It states that their AUM on march 2012 is US$160 bn which means that they had at most US$80 bn at the end of 2010. 

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20120804/ISSUE01/308049976/baseball-business-and-bones-are-signs-of-guggenheims-growth

Now, Guggenheim' s AUM is now at least US$ 260 billion (see  https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/firm/) which means that 

conservatively the US$100m stake bought in June 2011 is at least US$100*(260/80)m = US$325m (assuming that firm value is proportionate to AUM and that the AUM is close to 80m in June 2011)

This means that the value of K1 shares is at least S$ 1.39*325/433.128535 = S$ 1.04 (since there are 433.128535 million shares outstanding for K1) which translates to a return of 72 percent at the current price of S$0.605 per share!

Indeed i think that Guggenheim' s AUM should be at least US$ 300 bn which means that the fair value of K1 is S$1.20. 


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nngeeh
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25-May-2017 09:24     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Bro, Thanks for the tips. I just checked K1 venture' s website, and it is still stated that Guggenheim is part of their current principal investments which the portpolio has grew over the past few years. Just went in this morning.

Quant27      ( Date: 24-May-2017 22:22) Posted:

The market clearly does not understand how valuable guggenheim partners is. According to this website, the Guggenheim partners more than doubled their assets under management (AUM) from end 2010 to march 2012. It states that their AUM on march 2012 is US$160 bn which means that they had at most US$80 bn at the end of 2010. 

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20120804/ISSUE01/308049976/baseball-business-and-bones-are-signs-of-guggenheims-growth

Now, Guggenheim' s AUM is now at least US$ 260 billion (see  https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/firm/) which means that 

conservatively the US$100m stake bought in June 2011 is at least US$100*(260/80)m = US$325m (assuming that firm value is proportionate to AUM and that the AUM is close to 80m in June 2011)

This means that the value of K1 shares is at least S$ 1.39*325/433.128535 = S$ 1.04 (since there are 433.128535 million shares outstanding for K1) which translates to a return of 72 percent at the current price of S$0.605 per share!

Indeed i think that Guggenheim' s AUM should be at least US$ 300 bn which means that the fair value of K1 is S$1.20. 

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DoChun
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25-May-2017 00:15     
 
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 Alert Admin 		SGX query? good news or bad?
at least some news coming...lol
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Quant27
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24-May-2017 22:22     
 
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 Alert Admin 		The market clearly does not understand how valuable guggenheim partners is. According to this website, the Guggenheim partners more than doubled their assets under management (AUM) from end 2010 to march 2012. It states that their AUM on march 2012 is US$160 bn which means that they had at most US$80 bn at the end of 2010. 

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20120804/ISSUE01/308049976/baseball-business-and-bones-are-signs-of-guggenheims-growth

Now, Guggenheim' s AUM is now at least US$ 260 billion (see  https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/firm/) which means that 

conservatively the US$100m stake bought in June 2011 is at least US$100*(260/80)m = US$325m (assuming that firm value is proportionate to AUM and that the AUM is close to 80m in June 2011)

This means that the value of K1 shares is at least S$ 1.39*325/433.128535 = S$ 1.04 (since there are 433.128535 million shares outstanding for K1) which translates to a return of 72 percent at the current price of S$0.605 per share!

Indeed i think that Guggenheim' s AUM should be at least US$ 300 bn which means that the fair value of K1 is S$1.20. 
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DoChun
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24-Apr-2017 21:13     
 
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 Alert Admin

No Dividend..

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/k1%203Q%202017%20Results.ashx?App=Announcement& FileID=449751

 
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waters
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08-Apr-2017 17:54     
 
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 Alert Admin

Am wondering if this firm, Guggenheim is owned by K1 Ventures   https://www.guggenheimpartners.com/

 
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HB8289
Master
22-Mar-2017 10:46     
 
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 Alert Admin

will get payout soon
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