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UMS
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UMS
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zandlery
Supreme |
23-May-2017 17:02
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This stock have been quiet for years and suddenly wake up and shoot all of the sudden. No complaint from me. Collecting dividend and see the share price rise at the same time do make me excited. | ||||
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daylight28
Senior |
23-May-2017 11:59
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so fast clear 1.10 | ||||
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shareluck
Veteran |
23-May-2017 11:28
Yells: "buy share also need some luck to win " |
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> > > > > > > > > > > > 1.15 | ||||
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shareluck
Veteran |
22-May-2017 13:59
Yells: "buy share also need some luck to win " |
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CIMB top 5 picks small cap manufacturing stock UMS Sunningdale memtech AEM Riverstone |
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chengwh1
Elite |
22-May-2017 11:08
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Tq so much, junction,... Has UMS given out Bonus Issues previously please ?
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junction
Master |
21-May-2017 10:31
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Rights issue you have to pay for the shares. Bonus issue as the name suggests, is offered free - as a bonus to shareholders.
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chengwh1
Elite |
20-May-2017 14:14
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Sorry to ask... is a Bonus Issue similar to a Rights Issue ?... never had the privilege to be offered a Bonus Issue previously,... Kindly advise,... Tq. | ||||
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sengsk
Elite |
19-May-2017 11:44
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Hopefully there' s another bonus issue again ! Hope ! hope ! |
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bishan22
Supreme |
19-May-2017 11:40
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High will go higher.... 230% profit is no joke..... | ||||
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cobrajr
Veteran |
19-May-2017 11:20
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Missed tis boat but better than taking the wrong boat hahaha
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chengwh1
Elite |
19-May-2017 11:18
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Price is getting ridiculously high,.... | ||||
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shareluck
Veteran |
19-May-2017 09:29
Yells: "buy share also need some luck to win " |
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here come the turbo engine cheong arhhhhhhhhhhhhh! |
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sengsk
Elite |
17-May-2017 15:11
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Coming SOON !!!
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junnies
Member |
17-May-2017 14:55
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hit 1 dollar! | ||||
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sengsk
Elite |
17-May-2017 12:20
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http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/3-reasons-accumulate-ums-where-all-systems-go | ||||
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pool100
Veteran |
17-May-2017 09:54
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UMS was upgraded by several houses to more than $1. Watch for it to break up soon. Can sense insiders are accumulating right now. Tech sector is strongest at the moment. Ride the wave. |
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cobrajr
Veteran |
16-May-2017 12:00
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3 days so mayb tomorrow afternoon
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chengwh1
Elite |
16-May-2017 10:20
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Still above 0.90 today,... profit-taking has yet to start,.... | ||||
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sengsk
Elite |
15-May-2017 19:09
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Just wait for Profit Taking !
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junnies
Member |
15-May-2017 09:04
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Stunning Q12017 performance understates tremendous potential of FY2017 and beyond. IN Q12017, UMS delivered a stunning performance " SGX Mainboard-listed UMS Holdings Limited (&ldquo UMS&rdquo or &ldquo The Group&rdquo ) is proposing a 1 cent tax-exempt interim dividend to reward shareholders after delivering another stellar financial performance in 1Q2017. Net profit has risen by 230% to S$11.2 million on the back of a 105% increase in turnover to S$41.8 million from the previous corresponding quarter a year ago (&ldquo 1Q2016&rdquo ). Group revenue was also more than 22% higher compared to 4Q2016. The boost in revenue had come mainly from the semiconductor business segment which surged by 108% to S$40.9 million from S$19.6 million in the previous corresponding period. Revenue contributions from the semiconductor segment had risen by 26% from the final quarter of FY2016. Sales in the Semiconductor Integrated System jumped 192% from S$8.3 million in 1Q2016 to S$24.3 million in 1Q2017, while that for component sales increased by 47% from S$11.3 million in 1Q2016 to S$16.6 million in 1Q2017. Revenue contributions from the Others segment grew 17% to S$0.88 million from S$0.75 million in the same period the previous year." However, I believe this stunning performance actually understates the potential of UMS' s FY2017, and that we can expect even better results in the following quarters! When amazing quarterly results are released, the pertinent question is whether or not such results can be sustained, and I believe UMS is poised to not only sustain but improve on them! Here is their performance in FY2016 vs Q12017 " q12016 rev 20.3, profit 3.38 q22016 rev 23.6, profit 6.47 (gross profit margin 57.5%) q32016 rev 26, profit 6.785 (gross profit margin 56 %) q42016 rev 34.15, profit 5.96 (if discount change in inventory of 4.27m, net profit of 10.3m, gross profit margin 58%) " Note 1(b)(i)(iii)&ndash The decrease in inventories by S$5.6 million was mainly due to inventories written off and inventory obsolescence provision made during the period. " (of which 4.27m incurred in 4q2016) q12017 rev 41.8, profit 11.2 (gross profit margin 51.3%)" What the results clearly demonstrate is a pattern of tremendous growth in revenue and net profit in the past few quarters. Superficially, 4Q2016 might seem to be a disappointment as the increased revenue actually led to a decline in net profits, but if we dig deeper, we find out that 4.27m worth of inventory losses due to obsolescence had been accounted for in that quarter. If we discount the inventory losses which are a one-off event, the actual net profit is 10.3m! Another factor to be concerned is the decline in gross profit margin, but as i will explain later, i believe this to be an anomalous issue that further understates UMS' potential! With the Q12017 results, UMS holdings have strung together two back-to-back quarters of more than 34m in revenue and 10m in net profit that strongly suggests the long-term sustainability of such results. To back this up, let' s look at UMS' outlook in their press release Sustainable, long-term (3yrs< ) business " Geographically, Singapore continues to account for the bulk or 75% of the Group&rsquo s revenue base, contributing S$31.2 million in 1Q2017 a 186% jump from S$10.9 million in 1Q2016 due to strong sales of UMS&rsquo semiconductor integrated systems. Contributions from the US also swelled, rising 66% on-year to S$4.1 million from S$2.5 million a year ago on the back of higher component sales for new systems built. Revenue from the Others segment slipped 11% to S$5.9 million versus S$6.6 million in 1Q2016 mainly due to lower component sales to a key customer in China. The successful renewal of the group&rsquo s contract with its key customer by three years from Jan 2017, with the option for a further 3-years into 2023 will boost revenue base and earnings visibility. " A positive guarantee of revenue and income from the group' s contract with its key customer Accelerating earnings and revenue expected, Superb macro-outlook " The demand for semiconductor is on a rapid rise, fuelled by the boom in disruptive technology and continuous push for automation and innovation. The largest growth drivers for the industry are mobile devices (including devices using solid state drives), automotive and IoT (Internet of Things). According to Semiconductor Equipment & Materials International (SEMI), worldwide sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment totalled US$41.24 billion in 2016, representing a year-onyear increase of 13%. Fab equipment spending is also expected to reach an industry all-time record of more than US$46 billion in 2017. The value is expected to climb higher in 2018, with spending hitting near the US$50 billion mark. " Expansion plans " These buoyant trends augur well for UMS which is well-poised to ride on the growth as it will be stepping up plans to expand production capacity, including a ramp-up in fab activities in the coming months. The group intends to invest a further RM80 million in Penang over the next few years which include building new cleanrooms, take advantage of a larger pool of talent and a more favorable tax status. " Accelerating growth, rewarding shareholders " Mr Andy Luong, Chief Executive Officer of UMS Holdings, said: &ldquo The outlook continues to be positive for the global semiconductor sector which has enabled the Group to accelerate its growth trajectory in both revenue and profit. UMS intends to continue rewarding shareholders with good dividends and has hence proposed an interim tax-exempt dividend of 1 cent to be payable on 27 July, 2017. 3 &ldquo " From the above, we can clearly see that UMS not only expects to sustain its business performance, they are actually taking big steps into growing and expanding their business, and expect further growth trajectory in both revenue and profit! Gross profit margin should substnatially recover after being anomalously depressed in Q117, and contribute to a BIG increase in net profit in future quarters Having taken a deeper look at their Q12017 financial statements, I strongly suspect that their gross profit margins were anomalously depressed in the quarter, and should easily rebound and recover in the following quarters. q22016 rev 23.6, gross profit 13.59m (gross profit margin 57.5%) q32016 rev 26, gross profit 14.96m (gross profit margin 56 %) q42016 rev 34.15, gross profit 19.88m (gross profit margin 58%) (ignoring -4.27m change in inventory due to obsolescense) q12017 rev 41.8, gross profit 20.47m(gross profit margin 51.3%) If we compare revenue streams for 4Q16 and 1Q17 4Q16 Semi-Con &ndash 32,367, Others &ndash 1,786, Total: 34,153 1Q17 Semi-Con &ndash 40,880, Others &ndash 880, Total: 41,760 Increase in revenue of 7.61m Raw material purchases and subcontractor charges (Costs) 4Q16 - (14,274) 1Q17 &ndash (21,313) Increase in costs of 7.04m As we can see from the figures
From these figures, it is likely that the tumble in gross profit margin is anomalous as it makes no sense for the increased revenue stream to lead to an actual loss in net earnings especially when UMS operates with very high profit margins. If we assume that the average gross profit margins applied to the increase of 7.61m in revenue(7.61 x 0.57), we would get an additional gross profit of 4.34m! In any case, it is likely that the gross profit margins in the following quarters should significantly improve from that of Q117. Increased revenue and earnings base from diversified subsidiaries " We have also adopted a diversification strategy to broaden our revenue base and income streams as well as to lower exposure risks to any single source or market. Going forward, we will continue to drive growth in the existing semiconductor business segment while pursuing business opportunities in potential growth areas relating to the provision of water and chemical engineering solutions.&rdquo UMS had acquired in March a 51% stake in Kalf Engineering, a company that specialises in water and chemical engineering solutions for the offshore, power generation and chemical industries. Kalf has currently in hand seven projects in Asia, the Middle East and South America worth approximately S$13 million, and is also in the midst of procuring additional projects. Five of the current projects are expected to be completed in the second half of 2017 with another two in China and Middle East expected to be completed in the second half of 2018. The five projects, scheduled for completion this year, will be expected to contribute to the Group&rsquo s financial performance in FY2017. " Furthermore, in the above segment comparing gross profit margins, we noted that revenue from Others segment actually declined in 1Q2017. " Compared to 4Q2016, 1Q2017, revenue contributions from the semiconductor segment rose by 26%. Revenue in Others segment decreased 51% due mainly to the fluctuations in shipment dates of water disinfection equipment, which comprises Kalf Engineering&rsquo s projects. " As noted, the decrease is mainly due to fluctuations, and we should see stronger contributions on future quarters. In general, we can expect a small but growing contribution from UMS Kalf Engineering in future quarters. Setting a target price: $1.1 to $1.9 In the past five years, UMS has not significantly grown its revenue or net profit, but has consistently given out ~7% dividend yield. As such, I will set a target price based on the assumption that the market will price it at at least a 7% dividend yield. Annualising q12017 net profit, we get 44.8m " Over the past five years, the Group has declared total annual dividends at the rate of approximately 75% to 114% of the net profit after tax based on the audited consolidated financial statements. Any dividend payments are clearly communicated to shareholders via announcements on SGXNET. " UMS has a solid reputation of a high dividend payout as well as a strong cash flow with negligible debt. As of Q12017, its cash flow is 48m. We can therefore assume that UMS will give out a comparable dividend payout. Assuming extremely conservative, low-end payout of 75%, dividend payout will be 33.6m. 429.144m oustanding shares. At $1, dividend yield is 7.8%, At $1.1, dividend yield is 7%, At $1.2, dividend yield is 6.5%, at $1.3, diviend yield is 6%. Target price: 1.1 Assuming a more normative but still conservative outlook, we assume a dividend payout of 85% and give a 1.25 multiplier to the annualised q12107 results. We get a net profit of 44.8 x 1.25 = 56m, and a dividend payout of 56 x 0.85 = 47.6m. At $1, the dividend yield is 11.1%, at $1.1, diviend yield is 10.1%, at $1.2, dividend yield is 9.2%, at $1.3 dividend yield is 8.5%, at 1.6 dividend yield of 6.9%. Target price: 1.6 Assuming a more optimistic outlook, with the assumption that gross profit margins recover to 57%, that revenue and net profit increase by at least 20% in the next three quarters, we assume a dividend payout of 85% and give a 1.5 multiplier to the annualised q12017 results. We get a net profit of 44.8 x 1.5 x 0.85 = 57.12. At $1, the dividend yield is 13.3%, at $1.5, the dividend yield is 8.9%, at $1.9, the dividend yield is 7%. Target price: 1.9 |
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