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Equities to trend higher as Central Banks buy stks
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huangyuanhe
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08-May-2017 12:07
Yells: "666" |
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Using Citibank as a case study.
Citibank was at its super highs in the 2000s .... what lessons can we learn from Abu Dhabi funds and other Sovereign funds experience ? When Citibank prices are highs, instead of buying and buying, cash out some if not all. When Citibank was ai its lows, few dollars, then worth to take a look : buy at lows Current markets similar as Citibank case study.
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huangyuanhe
Supreme |
08-May-2017 11:09
Yells: "666" |
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What are Stock Markets ?
What is 拉 高 出 货 ? Prices High to ? Profit take. Distribution. Prices Low to ? Buy. Accumulation. Now Stock Markets are at theur HIGHS & PEAKS, funds and BBs are busy distributing / cashing out / profit taking. Worldwide. Once distribution over, big sell down. Anf then they redo everything again. I learnt this in HK & Shanghai.
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huangyuanhe
Supreme |
08-May-2017 10:43
Yells: "666" |
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Once Central Banks CASH OUT, THAT'S IT.
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huangyuanhe
Supreme |
08-May-2017 05:26
Yells: "666" |
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WARNING : FINANCIAL BUBBLE & CRISIS IN THE MAKING
GLOBAL MARKETS AT SUPER PEAKS HIGHS Before the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the lehman bros collapse, some economists have warned of the dangers and the risks of collspse. NOBODY LISTENED. TO MAKE IT WORSE, RATING AGENCIES GAVE SOLID RATINGS TO LEHMAN BROS. What happened ? The siruation looks very similar now. Alm Some fund managers and many economists are Warning the Huge Risk of Global Markets collapse and a big market crash but ANYBODY LISTENS ? what will happen ? Will hiatory repeat itself ? I have pointed out many distressing signs : - australians losing their jobs, all car factories moving out, zero car factories left.... - japanese companies reporting huge losses - korean companies reporting huge losses , jobs losses , Hanjin went bankrupt - Singapore O & G companies crisis : Ezra , Swiber , and many others.... - China Property Bubble expected to collapse, enormous debts potential crisis - US 1st world country thoussands do not even have access to basic utilities like clean water - tech industry revolutions resulting in a global massive loss of "traditional jobs".... - Greece still requiring Bail Outs - GREXIT looming..... - Puerto Rico declaring bankrupt And many more... LEAVE OR ENTER THE MARKETS. YOUR $ YOU DECIDE. BUT THINK ABOUT IT. SERIOUSLY.
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huangyuanhe
Supreme |
07-May-2017 17:36
Yells: "666" |
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While Nikkei shot up 130% to its peaks and highs......... just look at these :
Japan Post warns of losses.... Toshiba warns over its survival as it reports US$ 4.8 loss..... NYK loss 265.7 billion yen...... MOL loss 5.2 billion yen...... "K" Line loss 139.5 billion yen...... Nikkei Index May 2012 : 8,953.31 May 2017 : 19,445.70 |
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huangyuanhe
Supreme |
07-May-2017 13:39
Yells: "666" |
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Central Banks' $13 Trillion Problem
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and other major central banks are under pressure to reduce their balance sheets, but doing so poses a risk of provoking another taper tantrum of epic proportions. If major world banks in the U.S. Europe and Japan don't properly coordinate and execute the unwinding of some $13 trillion in assets built up since 2008, risk assets including stocks and mortgage-backed securities could sell off in a fire sale that would leave many investors ? large and small ? burned. In the worst-case scenario, the economic recovery, which is looking robust for the first time in a decade, might be at risk. (For more, see: What is the 'Taper Tantrum' and Why You Should Fear It.) Bloated Balance Sheets Following the financial crisis of 2008 that marked the start of the Great Recession, central banks around the world engaged in monetary policy efforts to stabilize their domestic and the global economy. Unorthodox policy tools such as quantitative easing (QE) allowed central banks to purchase riskier assets, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other non-government debt. Many experts believe that these asset purchases stabilized markets and bolstered the financial sector, keeping the recession from growing any deeper. The result, however, was that central bank balance sheets ballooned. The Fed's balance sheet grew from just under $1 trillion in assets in 2008 to $4.5 trillion in 2017. According to Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) assets also quadrupled while the ECB's grew by a factor of eight. (See also: How Will the Fed Reduce its Balance Sheet.) TIn Japan and Europe, the central bank purchases included more than various non-government debt securities. These two banks actively engaged in direct purchases of corporate stock in order to prop up equity markets, making the BoJ the largest equity holder of a number companies including Kikkoman, the largest soy-sauce producer in the country, indirectly via large positions in exchange traded funds (ETFs). (((((((((( Unwinding Positions ))))))))))))) Unwinding, or tapering these enormous positions is likely to spook the market since a flood of supply is likely to keep demand at bay. Moreover, in some more illiquid markets, such as the MBS market, central banks became the single largest buyer of those assets. In the U.S., for example, with the Fed no longer a buyer and under pressure to sell instead, it is unclear if there are enough buyers at fair prices to take these off the Fed's hands. The fear is that asset prices will collapse in these markets, creating a more widespread panic. If mortgage bonds fall in value, the other implication is that the interest rates associated with these assets will rise putting upward pressure on mortgage rates in the market and putting a damper on the long and slow housing recovery. (((((((((((( Before central banks begin the unwind, they will gradually reduce the amount of securities they are currently purchasing on the open market. )))))))))))) In December 2016, the ECB said that bond purchases would be extended until at least the end of 2017, putting the total amount of assets purchased under QE at at least 2.28 trillion euros. Officials have said the monthly purchase amounts will be reduced gradually at the April meeting, the ECB cut its monthly pace of purchases to 60 billion euros from 80 billion euros prior. |
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huangyuanhe
Supreme |
07-May-2017 08:59
Yells: "666" |
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Remember how the powerful Abu Dhabi Funds as well as the Saudi Prince lost $ in Citibank Stock a few years back ? Who else or which Sovereign Fund lost $ in Citiibank Stocks ?
The Norway Funds now are focusing more on direct Assets investments, properties owning. Swiss Central Bank will : 1. Sell off stocks to book profits (that is when you will see some global markets corrections) 2. Book profits in various currencies and holdings 3. Re'-enter at market lows again This will make Swiss Funds richer.
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huangyuanhe
Supreme |
07-May-2017 08:45
Yells: "666" |
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LOL. CENTRAL BANK NEEDS TO TAKE PROFITS TOO.
After taking profits, when prices corrected, then they will re-enter at lows again. It is a responsive effect. Once it is known Swiss Central Bank is buying stocks the intention is to keep the Swiss Franc low, currencies traders will short or leave the Swiss Franc and this will make the Swiss Central Bank to sell off stocks to "balance it". All in all, it is "A Financial Bubble" in the making.
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moneyspinner
Veteran |
07-May-2017 07:39
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" Mystery" Central Bank Buyer Revealed, Goes On Q1 Buying Spree 
by  Tyler Durden
May 6, 2017 6:26 PM
In the first few months of the year, a trading desk rumor emerged that even as  institutional traders dumped stocksand retail investors  piled into ETFs, a " mystery" central bank was quietly bidding up risk assets by aggressively buying stocks. And no, it was not the BOJ: while the Japanese Central Bank' s interventions in the stock market are familiar to all by now, and as we  reported last night  on sessions when the " the BoJ comes in big, the average return on the [Nikkei] is about 14 basis points higher"   with Nomura calculating that " the BoJ has provided a cumulative boost to the Nikkei of about 1,400 points" ...  
... the one thing about the BOJ is  that it keeps its interventions local, and tends to mostly prop up Japanese stocks, whether the Nikkei 225 or the Topix.  The answer was revealed on Friday when the hedge fund known as the " Swiss National Bank" posted its  latest 13-F holdings. What it showed is that, as rumored, the Swiss National Bank had gone on a record buying spree in the first quarter, boosting its total equity holdings to an all time high $80.4 billion, up $17 billion from the $63.4 billion at the end of 2016, the biggest quarterly increase in " AUM" in history.
Yet while we are long beyond the point of debating the central bank intervention in equity markets (we do want to remind readers that until several years ago, it was considered " fake news" to even mention it, and those who accused central bankers of manipulating stock markets were said to be paranoid tinfoil basement dwellers), we want to point out that unlike the BOJ, which at least keeps its capital markets distortion local, the SNB, which likewise creates money out of thin air (then sells it for dollars in an attempt to keep the Swiss franc depressed) is actively resulting in even greater price distortions in the US.   
 
While we doubt this will be investigated with stocks are at all time highs, we look forward to the Congressional hearings after the crash when the scapegoating and fingerpointing begins, and everyone is " stunned" to learn that central banks were responsible for blowing the biggest asset bubble the world has ever seen by directly buying stocks. What else did the SNB reveal in its 13F? Two main things. First, its top 20 holdings are as shown in the following chart. The central bank was clearly not shy in adding to its top positions, especially the top position.
And while we don' t know if Warren Buffett was actively frontrunning the SNB when he  more than doubled his AAPL stake in Q1, making him a top 5 holder of the tech giant, a look at the SNB' s holdings of AAPL stock which increased from 15 to 18.9 million shares, shows why the Nasdaq - as observed earlier in the day by Goldman Sachs - just refuses to drop hitting daily all time highs. 
The chart above may also explain why  Goldman is bullish on the Nasdaq 100: after all, when a central bank can and does create money out of thin air, then splurges on the company that  accounts for 12% of the weight in the Nasdaq, pushing the Nasdaq and all indices higher,  what is the point of even talking about " risk" ? |
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