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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock Post Reply Rate topic
earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 14:11        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Deal. If Dow break new high. I lose immediately since I said it will not break high anymore. April - may but be an obvious correction, indexes at lower level for 2 months. In fact I think drop will be huge in June to July if us market start to blow trump infrastructure commitment not on line. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 14:05) Posted: i was talking about us initially... so the deal is on? US market will have correction. But Q1 results will be good enough to push it higher... earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:59) Posted: 😁 😁 😁 I thought we are saying Singapore market and economy.😁 😁 😁 U.S.? do you buy a lot U.S. stock? I thought our game is us market correction in April and May rather than a crash?😁 😁 😁
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justjoin Supreme	08-Mar-2017 14:10        justjoin About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Maintain buy call for Genting, First Resource, Yoma, Noble, Hyflux
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TechnicalTrader Master	08-Mar-2017 14:05        TechnicalTrader About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Traders perform TA using TI. Success rely on Technique used"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	i was talking about us initially... so the deal is on? US market will have correction. But Q1 results will be good enough to push it higher... earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:59) Posted: 😁 😁 😁 I thought we are saying Singapore market and economy.😁 😁 😁 U.S.? do you buy a lot U.S. stock? I thought our game is us market correction in April and May rather than a crash?😁 😁 😁 TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:41) Posted: you are talking about history... I am talking about 2016/7/8 I am talking about current us company earnings are keep improviing...this is a fact...  So we are seeing different things
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:59        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	😁 😁 😁 I thought we are saying Singapore market and economy.😁 😁 😁 U.S.? do you buy a lot U.S. stock? I thought our game is us market correction in April and May rather than a crash?😁 😁 😁 TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:41) Posted: you are talking about history... I am talking about 2016/7/8 I am talking about current us company earnings are keep improviing...this is a fact...  So we are seeing different things
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:55        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I always type wrongly is cooling measurement for property won't work in China and U.S. Since every state and province has different scale of property price and some may not overheated.(at point4) earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:42) Posted: Continue... So today USA is back, Europe is back. Our gov is trying their best to hold the economic to prevent hard falling like us because it is very painful and like Lao Lee said Singapore is fragile, we may not have chance like us and Europe. So we don't know if we can be back, since cannot be back gov try their best not to make it happen to balance the market. This is another type of economic. We see how can sg gov can dong since they always say they are world class and I only know world class has passed away 1 by 1, on seat one world class or not they have to prove from here a potential bad hit from economic cycle even us and Europe also cannot escape. 4) very sure, listen to the old lady Hellen said about figure she refer to for raising interest rate. Inflation, to raise interest to curb the inflation and overheating property market by increasing the cost of borrowing and increase saving in the banks to balance the 3 things I highlighted for property value just now. Singapore? When our inflation sky high why sg gov didn't raise interest rate to curb? They worry it will harm economic so what they do? They come out property cooling measurement which other country don't have. Such policy easy to implement in small country in Singapore and Hong Kong but hard for big country who has a lot of provinces with different propert market price like China Shanghai and china 西 藏 . Gov want Shanghai property not to raise further but they may want other province to raise. So this policy won't work in Singapore. 5) it is like stock market swing up down in downtrend. Every up, you will see people queue to buy condo, but after a while price cannot up further, it will be further down. Down and down cause deflation or bottom hit. Where is it? Market will tell. 6) in general economic is inflation. This is like 50years ago, 1 noodle sell 10 cents gradually increase to today 5 dollars. So economic expansion will come with inflation. 1-2% inflation is considered healthy. But when you see zero inflation mean economic is in downturn, deflation mean your country assets are depreciating. When other appreciating our country deflation mean our economic is left behind global economic grow which is very bad. Purchase manager index 50, GDP 0% inflation 1%. All are benchmark of a economic body growth or recession. Recession will bring panic to investors and more investors will withdraw cash from the country to cause assets free falling and collapse since body want to lose money. When at bottom cannot be lower, their money will be back to the country like 2-3 years ago us and last year Europe. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:26) Posted: Our economy has hit peak in 2013 stagnant in 2014-2015, first round crashing in mid 2015 to 2016 mid. U.S. Economic bullish save our economic since the semiconductor and manufacturing sectors bullish in USA and China help to support Singapore economic when construction (shipbuilding and land based construction project) is coming down. 1) nobody in construction will say they are good. Condo project down 1 by 1 how long we hear gov sell land for condo project? Do you notice we have more and more balance flat but why gov still selling hdb and give more discount to hdb? They try to boost construction sector to prevent further big scale of retrenchment after oil & gas and shipbuilding launched big retrenchment last 2 years. So see the road, here dig hole, there dig hole, here build shelter there build shelter, here repair there repair, all are from gov pocket to support construction. Our office construction also slow down. Then you know once what is next? All condos office are built and come and compete the rental fee so we have highest condo vacancy rate and office will be soon. 2) those know market they know market up down with swing mode, cannot down further is time to buy cannot up further is time to sell. Rich get richer because they know the game rules, retailers make noise in forum doesn't reflect actual stock market movement since 100 retailers buying amount may not more than 1 rich buying amount. So yes market is going to move to correction soon. Small one big one we don't know, sometime small their cannot feel, big one normally come with bad news. So rich will sell first and see how. 3) this is not the problem of borrowing. You know what happen in USA? You though they pay and clear the loan? You know why us gov print money? U know where all these money go? You know why noble sell so many thing with cash all gone? Only reason is clearing the bad debt? When market collapsed? All assets value collapsed including property and company assets( like GM bankruptcy) so "cash" "money" "value" gone and vanished, like GM market cap from 40-50bil(example) till bankrupt (zero) 40-50bil gone in the market. What left? Debt billion of debt. Public debt(personnel loan) also same declare bankruptcy, assets belong to banks, banks in trouble with bad debts. So how next? Market need a lot of cash plenty of cash to clear the debt. U.S. Gov print money buy U.S. bonds, give money to banks to help, rescue GM with money pump in. What is impact of printing money? Currency free falling. From 1.8-1.2. So us gone? Europe gone? No they will not, because economic is on the basic of people human and assets. So long as assets there, you can rebuilt the whole economic
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:48        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Don't look down on history, history is for lesson learn. Other country lesson will be our cautious. I won't say it definitely will happen. I am saying we have to look around and see what happen surrounding us. We have 1988, 1997, 2003 2008(may be cannot consider) please think economic is like stock market or forex market, up down is very common in economic development. Property peak, personnel loan capacity in peak cannot loan anymore, move into payment period, pay pay pay for 10 years, personnel loan capacity decrease after loan repayment, property price down, more cash on hand after inflation and salary raise, another round property boom. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:41) Posted: you are talking about history... I am talking about 2016/7/8 I am talking about current us company earnings are keep improviing...this is a fact...  So we are seeing different things
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:42        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Continue... So today USA is back, Europe is back. Our gov is trying their best to hold the economic to prevent hard falling like us because it is very painful and like Lao Lee said Singapore is fragile, we may not have chance like us and Europe. So we don't know if we can be back, since cannot be back gov try their best not to make it happen to balance the market. This is another type of economic. We see how can sg gov can dong since they always say they are world class and I only know world class has passed away 1 by 1, on seat one world class or not they have to prove from here a potential bad hit from economic cycle even us and Europe also cannot escape. 4) very sure, listen to the old lady Hellen said about figure she refer to for raising interest rate. Inflation, to raise interest to curb the inflation and overheating property market by increasing the cost of borrowing and increase saving in the banks to balance the 3 things I highlighted for property value just now. Singapore? When our inflation sky high why sg gov didn't raise interest rate to curb? They worry it will harm economic so what they do? They come out property cooling measurement which other country don't have. Such policy easy to implement in small country in Singapore and Hong Kong but hard for big country who has a lot of provinces with different propert market price like China Shanghai and china 西 藏 . Gov want Shanghai property not to raise further but they may want other province to raise. So this policy won't work in Singapore. 5) it is like stock market swing up down in downtrend. Every up, you will see people queue to buy condo, but after a while price cannot up further, it will be further down. Down and down cause deflation or bottom hit. Where is it? Market will tell. 6) in general economic is inflation. This is like 50years ago, 1 noodle sell 10 cents gradually increase to today 5 dollars. So economic expansion will come with inflation. 1-2% inflation is considered healthy. But when you see zero inflation mean economic is in downturn, deflation mean your country assets are depreciating. When other appreciating our country deflation mean our economic is left behind global economic grow which is very bad. Purchase manager index 50, GDP 0% inflation 1%. All are benchmark of a economic body growth or recession. Recession will bring panic to investors and more investors will withdraw cash from the country to cause assets free falling and collapse since body want to lose money. When at bottom cannot be lower, their money will be back to the country like 2-3 years ago us and last year Europe. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:26) Posted: Our economy has hit peak in 2013 stagnant in 2014-2015, first round crashing in mid 2015 to 2016 mid. U.S. Economic bullish save our economic since the semiconductor and manufacturing sectors bullish in USA and China help to support Singapore economic when construction (shipbuilding and land based construction project) is coming down. 1) nobody in construction will say they are good. Condo project down 1 by 1 how long we hear gov sell land for condo project? Do you notice we have more and more balance flat but why gov still selling hdb and give more discount to hdb? They try to boost construction sector to prevent further big scale of retrenchment after oil & gas and shipbuilding launched big retrenchment last 2 years. So see the road, here dig hole, there dig hole, here build shelter there build shelter, here repair there repair, all are from gov pocket to support construction. Our office construction also slow down. Then you know once what is next? All condos office are built and come and compete the rental fee so we have highest condo vacancy rate and office will be soon. 2) those know market they know market up down with swing mode, cannot down further is time to buy cannot up further is time to sell. Rich get richer because they know the game rules, retailers make noise in forum doesn't reflect actual stock market movement since 100 retailers buying amount may not more than 1 rich buying amount. So yes market is going to move to correction soon. Small one big one we don't know, sometime small their cannot feel, big one normally come with bad news. So rich will sell first and see how. 3) this is not the problem of borrowing. You know what happen in USA? You though they pay and clear the loan? You know why us gov print money? U know where all these money go? You know why noble sell so many thing with cash all gone? Only reason is clearing the bad debt? When market collapsed? All assets value collapsed including property and company assets( like GM bankruptcy) so "cash" "money" "value" gone and vanished, like GM market cap from 40-50bil(example) till bankrupt (zero) 40-50bil gone in the market. What left? Debt billion of debt. Public debt(personnel loan) also same declare bankruptcy, assets belong to banks, banks in trouble with bad debts. So how next? Market need a lot of cash plenty of cash to clear the debt. U.S. Gov print money buy U.S. bonds, give money to banks to help, rescue GM with money pump in. What is impact of printing money? Currency free falling. From 1.8-1.2. So us gone? Europe gone? No they will not, because economic is on the basic of people human and assets. So long as assets there, you can rebuilt the whole economic. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:08) Posted: Mr EB, do you feel the market sentiment in singapore has improved even though actual economy is still bad? 1. Contruction looked good... but a lot of contractors are not receiving payments, subcontractors worse hit, workers even worse worse hit. But workers don' t get loan from the banks (they can' t)... 2. When share market improves, more ppl accumulated profit... Some are very smart.. they already left the market... share market always move ahead of economy.  3. Singapre public loan is world no. 1... will you or the young generation stop borrowing because the interest rate is increasing... they won' t...  4. Interest rate hike.... then inflation?   r u sure? 5. Just the opposite, when property is down, less ppl going in, because they worry it will go down further. 6. Why countries   prefer to see slight inflation than deflation?... Deflation is very unhealthy for the economy.. Just my opinion..
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TechnicalTrader Master	08-Mar-2017 13:41        TechnicalTrader About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Traders perform TA using TI. Success rely on Technique used"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	you are talking about history... I am talking about 2016/7/8 I am talking about current us company earnings are keep improviing...this is a fact...  So we are seeing different things
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:26        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Our economy has hit peak in 2013 stagnant in 2014-2015, first round crashing in mid 2015 to 2016 mid. U.S. Economic bullish save our economic since the semiconductor and manufacturing sectors bullish in USA and China help to support Singapore economic when construction (shipbuilding and land based construction project) is coming down. 1) nobody in construction will say they are good. Condo project down 1 by 1 how long we hear gov sell land for condo project? Do you notice we have more and more balance flat but why gov still selling hdb and give more discount to hdb? They try to boost construction sector to prevent further big scale of retrenchment after oil & gas and shipbuilding launched big retrenchment last 2 years. So see the road, here dig hole, there dig hole, here build shelter there build shelter, here repair there repair, all are from gov pocket to support construction. Our office construction also slow down. Then you know once what is next? All condos office are built and come and compete the rental fee so we have highest condo vacancy rate and office will be soon. 2) those know market they know market up down with swing mode, cannot down further is time to buy cannot up further is time to sell. Rich get richer because they know the game rules, retailers make noise in forum doesn't reflect actual stock market movement since 100 retailers buying amount may not more than 1 rich buying amount. So yes market is going to move to correction soon. Small one big one we don't know, sometime small their cannot feel, big one normally come with bad news. So rich will sell first and see how. 3) this is not the problem of borrowing. You know what happen in USA? You though they pay and clear the loan? You know why us gov print money? U know where all these money go? You know why noble sell so many thing with cash all gone? Only reason is clearing the bad debt? When market collapsed? All assets value collapsed including property and company assets( like GM bankruptcy) so "cash" "money" "value" gone and vanished, like GM market cap from 40-50bil(example) till bankrupt (zero) 40-50bil gone in the market. What left? Debt billion of debt. Public debt(personnel loan) also same declare bankruptcy, assets belong to banks, banks in trouble with bad debts. So how next? Market need a lot of cash plenty of cash to clear the debt. U.S. Gov print money buy U.S. bonds, give money to banks to help, rescue GM with money pump in. What is impact of printing money? Currency free falling. From 1.8-1.2. So us gone? Europe gone? No they will not, because economic is on the basic of people human and assets. So long as assets there, you can rebuilt the whole economic. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 13:08) Posted: Mr EB, do you feel the market sentiment in singapore has improved even though actual economy is still bad? 1. Contruction looked good... but a lot of contractors are not receiving payments, subcontractors worse hit, workers even worse worse hit. But workers don' t get loan from the banks (they can' t)... 2. When share market improves, more ppl accumulated profit... Some are very smart.. they already left the market... share market always move ahead of economy.  3. Singapre public loan is world no. 1... will you or the young generation stop borrowing because the interest rate is increasing... they won' t...  4. Interest rate hike.... then inflation?   r u sure? 5. Just the opposite, when property is down, less ppl going in, because they worry it will go down further. 6. Why countries   prefer to see slight inflation than deflation?... Deflation is very unhealthy for the economy.. Just my opinion..   earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:41) Posted: So please be sad if interest rate hike. Singapore public loan per person is world no. 1. Interest rate hike no good at all. Property market value, interest rate and monthly salary are in a balance. Down up down, property melt. Up down up, property bull bull. Up up up, best time to sell, so when is it? 2013 when U.S. Sang interest rate hike, you should cash out your property when everything in peak when inflation is picking up. Down down down, best time to buy property since it is sign of bottom when interest to adjust low to deal with minus inflation. Do own due diligence
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SgYuan Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:23        SgYuan About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Whao, i like ur analysis. U are real sharp even in properties/financing segment earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:41) Posted: So please be sad if interest rate hike. Singapore public loan per person is world no. 1. Interest rate hike no good at all. Property market value, interest rate and monthly salary are in a balance. Down up down, property melt. Up down up, property bull bull. Up up up, best time to sell, so when is it? 2013 when U.S. Sang interest rate hike, you should cash out your property when everything in peak when inflation is picking up. Down down down, best time to buy property since it is sign of bottom when interest to adjust low to deal with minus inflation. Do own due diligence. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:34) Posted: Why rate hike, banks stock will surely fly? Banks earned through bank commission charge plus sibor charge. Interest rate hike sibor hike, commission the same. Loan interest up, fixed D also up, commission still same. Potential of risk and bad impact? Bad debt increase with higher interest charge. Cash fighting in market with fixed D interest rate to deal with bad debt. Higher gear ratio is required to approve loan package, increase interest, increase monthly installment, reduce the chance of loan approval according to loan convenants and reduce the ability for loan servicing. Reduce loan and borrowing activity, reduce amount of loan package per year. The interest hike benefit for the profit in jumping interest on loan constant interest is temporary, very fast it will catch up by raising fixed D. But the impact of long term is very bad especially the bad debt. We see Ezra Swiber and etc bring banks trouble. Interest up up up? We will see mortgage loan from property bring another round of problem to banks. Banks heaven? No. When banks earned a lot? Past 10 years since U.S. Interest rate is lowered down to zero, loan activity in peak, commission earned till siao. When we start to hear problem? Last year when offshore loan collapse 1 after 1. Further increase interest rate? Mortgage loan coming. Bad debt. Condo, hdb up how much since 2007-2008 before us market crash? Condo sell how much in 2005, how much in 2012-2013, how much now? Further up interest? Further up monthly installment, rental? Stagnant and down. Property value? Down 20-30% since peak in 2013. Further down, spreading to those buy 2010-2012, property value in present market lower than loan amount? Bad debt, cannot serve the loan, bank vomit blood. Will it be so bad? Potentially.
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davidoch Senior	08-Mar-2017 13:20        davidoch About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Thank you Bird for the caution side. TT, good judgement. Chart look good and couple with the present sotry line for OCBC look bullish as I wished.Liek CD 18Cent on 18 May & ... OCBC could stand to gain in contest for Hong Kong Life Insurance   earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:16) Posted: Relax relax. Still within 9.42-9.65 with mid range 9.55. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:09) Posted: hi bro davidoch this morning already posted here.. looked like rotation has move to banks starting today... all three moving hand in hand for OCBC, yet to be confirmed by TA if it can close on or above 9.54... 16march from now is five working day... what do you think if you are bbs and bigger investors? Just my guess... Hope it is good.
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famouspinky Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:15        famouspinky About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Lol TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:48) Posted: Last year was last year...  When interest rate should move up? When the economy is doing well... US gdp expected > 2%.  Banks earn what? from our loans and from their investment... more money money put in the banks, they can invest more...  If economy is good, and bank rate is not very high (this is the situation even if rate hike three four times), don' t worry about no body getting loan.. every body got stable income and good company profits. Why the market nowadays never worries about rate hike at all...The US economy is strong and getting stronger... your worries are wrongly timed.... The US economy is stronger now    earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:34) Posted: Why rate hike, banks stock will surely fly? Banks earned through bank commission charge plus sibor charge. Interest rate hike sibor hike, commission the same. Loan interest up, fixed D also up, commission still same. Potential of risk and bad impact? Bad debt increase with higher interest charge. Cash fighting in market with fixed D interest rate to deal with bad debt. Higher gear ratio is required to approve loan package, increase interest, increase monthly installment, reduce the chance of loan approval according to loan convenants and reduce the ability for loan servicing. Reduce loan and borrowing activity, reduce amount of loan package per year. The interest hike benefit for the profit in jumping interest on loan constant interest is temporary, very fast it will catch up by raising fixed D. But the impact of long term is very bad especially the bad debt. We see Ezra Swiber and etc bring banks trouble. Interest up up up? We will see mortgage loan from property bring another round of problem to banks. Banks heaven? No. When banks earned a lot? Past 10 years since U.S. Interest rate is lowered down to zero, loan activity in peak, commission earned till siao. When we start to hear problem? Last year when offshore loan collapse 1 after 1. Further increase interest rate? Mortgage loan coming. Bad debt. Condo, hdb up how much since 2007-2008 before us market crash? Condo sell how much in 2005, how much in 2012-2013, how much now? Further up interest? Further up monthly installment, rental? Stagnant and down. Property value? Down 20-30% since peak in 2013. Further down, spreading to those buy 2010-2012, property value in present market lower than loan amount? Bad debt, cannot serve the loan, bank vomit blood. Will it be so bad? Potentially.
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TechnicalTrader Master	08-Mar-2017 13:12        TechnicalTrader About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Traders perform TA using TI. Success rely on Technique used"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Traditionally, when us pick up the world pick up. Singapore propert restriction curb is the main reason why singapore property price drop.. once cooling measures are removed, price shoot up again. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:57) Posted: I don't worry for USA. I worry Singapore to be another 2007-2008 USA. Their property was down till bottom in 2010-2011, then pick up from bottom till today. Not so overheating. Our property is bottom in 2003-2005 after Sara period, up till 2007-2008, crash till mid mountain, within 9 month climb up from mid mountain with China and climb up another new mountain in 2013. Then now down 20% from peak mountain. Now U.S. Interest rate hike is to prevent their inflation up further and try to cool down their property market. Singapore, from peak mountain till 20-30% down, a cool down will be like pouring cold water which will be super cold. I don't know what will happen, but I stand on high chance side. Interest up, if rental fee don't up but down. It will be like stock collapse, you sell, he sell they sell, sell sell sell. Ya gov will remove cooling measurement to boost market. But if remove, market will only wait and see if price can be lowered or not. Who don't want to buy at cheap? Since cheaper can go cheaper. Again do own due diligence. If you need a house to stay, just buy lah. But if need investment? Think twice. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:48) Posted: Last year was last year...  When interest rate should move up? When the economy is doing well... US gdp expected > 2%.  Banks earn what? from our loans and from their investment... more money money put in the banks, they can invest more...  If economy is good, and bank rate is not very high (this is the situation even if rate hike three four times), don' t worry about no body getting loan.. every body got stable income and good company profits. Why the market nowadays never worries about rate hike at all...The US economy is strong and getting stronger... your worries are wrongly timed.... The US economy is stronger now
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:10        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	U.S. Economic so bad, unemployment rate so high in 2009-2013. What Singapore doing? So great high employment high salary property price up up up. Don't ever think us economic good, we will be good too. In fact, their economic help SINGAPORE property market not sinking into collapse in 2016-2017 by bringing stock market to bullish mode. 风 水 轮 流 转 . And never say never. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:57) Posted: I don't worry for USA. I worry Singapore to be another 2007-2008 USA. Their property was down till bottom in 2010-2011, then pick up from bottom till today. Not so overheating. Our property is bottom in 2003-2005 after Sara period, up till 2007-2008, crash till mid mountain, within 9 month climb up from mid mountain with China and climb up another new mountain in 2013. Then now down 20% from peak mountain. Now U.S. Interest rate hike is to prevent their inflation up further and try to cool down their property market. Singapore, from peak mountain till 20-30% down, a cool down will be like pouring cold water which will be super cold. I don't know what will happen, but I stand on high chance side. Interest up, if rental fee don't up but down. It will be like stock collapse, you sell, he sell they sell, sell sell sell. Ya gov will remove cooling measurement to boost market. But if remove, market will only wait and see if price can be lowered or not. Who don't want to buy at cheap? Since cheaper can go cheaper. Again do own due diligence. If you need a house to stay, just buy lah. But if need investment? Think twice. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:48) Posted: Last year was last year...  When interest rate should move up? When the economy is doing well... US gdp expected > 2%.  Banks earn what? from our loans and from their investment... more money money put in the banks, they can invest more...  If economy is good, and bank rate is not very high (this is the situation even if rate hike three four times), don' t worry about no body getting loan.. every body got stable income and good company profits. Why the market nowadays never worries about rate hike at all...The US economy is strong and getting stronger... your worries are wrongly timed.... The US economy is stronger now
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TechnicalTrader Master	08-Mar-2017 13:08        TechnicalTrader About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Traders perform TA using TI. Success rely on Technique used"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Mr EB, do you feel the market sentiment in singapore has improved even though actual economy is still bad? 1. Contruction looked good... but a lot of contractors are not receiving payments, subcontractors worse hit, workers even worse worse hit. But workers don' t get loan from the banks (they can' t)... 2. When share market improves, more ppl accumulated profit... Some are very smart.. they already left the market... share market always move ahead of economy.  3. Singapre public loan is world no. 1... will you or the young generation stop borrowing because the interest rate is increasing... they won' t...  4. Interest rate hike.... then inflation?   r u sure? 5. Just the opposite, when property is down, less ppl going in, because they worry it will go down further. 6. Why countries   prefer to see slight inflation than deflation?... Deflation is very unhealthy for the economy.. Just my opinion..   earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:41) Posted: So please be sad if interest rate hike. Singapore public loan per person is world no. 1. Interest rate hike no good at all. Property market value, interest rate and monthly salary are in a balance. Down up down, property melt. Up down up, property bull bull. Up up up, best time to sell, so when is it? 2013 when U.S. Sang interest rate hike, you should cash out your property when everything in peak when inflation is picking up. Down down down, best time to buy property since it is sign of bottom when interest to adjust low to deal with minus inflation. Do own due diligence. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:34) Posted: Why rate hike, banks stock will surely fly? Banks earned through bank commission charge plus sibor charge. Interest rate hike sibor hike, commission the same. Loan interest up, fixed D also up, commission still same. Potential of risk and bad impact? Bad debt increase with higher interest charge. Cash fighting in market with fixed D interest rate to deal with bad debt. Higher gear ratio is required to approve loan package, increase interest, increase monthly installment, reduce the chance of loan approval according to loan convenants and reduce the ability for loan servicing. Reduce loan and borrowing activity, reduce amount of loan package per year. The interest hike benefit for the profit in jumping interest on loan constant interest is temporary, very fast it will catch up by raising fixed D. But the impact of long term is very bad especially the bad debt. We see Ezra Swiber and etc bring banks trouble. Interest up up up? We will see mortgage loan from property bring another round of problem to banks. Banks heaven? No. When banks earned a lot? Past 10 years since U.S. Interest rate is lowered down to zero, loan activity in peak, commission earned till siao. When we start to hear problem? Last year when offshore loan collapse 1 after 1. Further increase interest rate? Mortgage loan coming. Bad debt. Condo, hdb up how much since 2007-2008 before us market crash? Condo sell how much in 2005, how much in 2012-2013, how much now? Further up interest? Further up monthly installment, rental? Stagnant and down. Property value? Down 20-30% since peak in 2013. Further down, spreading to those buy 2010-2012, property value in present market lower than loan amount? Bad debt, cannot serve the loan, bank vomit blood. Will it be so bad? Potentially.
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 13:04        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	It is like trust dividend (rental)gonna cut, market throw the share(property) , share price (property value) down. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:57) Posted: I don't worry for USA. I worry Singapore to be another 2007-2008 USA. Their property was down till bottom in 2010-2011, then pick up from bottom till today. Not so overheating. Our property is bottom in 2003-2005 after Sara period, up till 2007-2008, crash till mid mountain, within 9 month climb up from mid mountain with China and climb up another new mountain in 2013. Then now down 20% from peak mountain. Now U.S. Interest rate hike is to prevent their inflation up further and try to cool down their property market. Singapore, from peak mountain till 20-30% down, a cool down will be like pouring cold water which will be super cold. I don't know what will happen, but I stand on high chance side. Interest up, if rental fee don't up but down. It will be like stock collapse, you sell, he sell they sell, sell sell sell. Ya gov will remove cooling measurement to boost market. But if remove, market will only wait and see if price can be lowered or not. Who don't want to buy at cheap? Since cheaper can go cheaper. Again do own due diligence. If you need a house to stay, just buy lah. But if need investment? Think twice. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:48) Posted: Last year was last year...  When interest rate should move up? When the economy is doing well... US gdp expected > 2%.  Banks earn what? from our loans and from their investment... more money money put in the banks, they can invest more...  If economy is good, and bank rate is not very high (this is the situation even if rate hike three four times), don' t worry about no body getting loan.. every body got stable income and good company profits. Why the market nowadays never worries about rate hike at all...The US economy is strong and getting stronger... your worries are wrongly timed.... The US economy is stronger now
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 12:57        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	I don't worry for USA. I worry Singapore to be another 2007-2008 USA. Their property was down till bottom in 2010-2011, then pick up from bottom till today. Not so overheating. Our property is bottom in 2003-2005 after Sara period, up till 2007-2008, crash till mid mountain, within 9 month climb up from mid mountain with China and climb up another new mountain in 2013. Then now down 20% from peak mountain. Now U.S. Interest rate hike is to prevent their inflation up further and try to cool down their property market. Singapore, from peak mountain till 20-30% down, a cool down will be like pouring cold water which will be super cold. I don't know what will happen, but I stand on high chance side. Interest up, if rental fee don't up but down. It will be like stock collapse, you sell, he sell they sell, sell sell sell. Ya gov will remove cooling measurement to boost market. But if remove, market will only wait and see if price can be lowered or not. Who don't want to buy at cheap? Since cheaper can go cheaper. Again do own due diligence. If you need a house to stay, just buy lah. But if need investment? Think twice. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:48) Posted: Last year was last year...  When interest rate should move up? When the economy is doing well... US gdp expected > 2%.  Banks earn what? from our loans and from their investment... more money money put in the banks, they can invest more...  If economy is good, and bank rate is not very high (this is the situation even if rate hike three four times), don' t worry about no body getting loan.. every body got stable income and good company profits. Why the market nowadays never worries about rate hike at all...The US economy is strong and getting stronger... your worries are wrongly timed.... The US economy is stronger now    earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:34) Posted: Why rate hike, banks stock will surely fly? Banks earned through bank commission charge plus sibor charge. Interest rate hike sibor hike, commission the same. Loan interest up, fixed D also up, commission still same. Potential of risk and bad impact? Bad debt increase with higher interest charge. Cash fighting in market with fixed D interest rate to deal with bad debt. Higher gear ratio is required to approve loan package, increase interest, increase monthly installment, reduce the chance of loan approval according to loan convenants and reduce the ability for loan servicing. Reduce loan and borrowing activity, reduce amount of loan package per year. The interest hike benefit for the profit in jumping interest on loan constant interest is temporary, very fast it will catch up by raising fixed D. But the impact of long term is very bad especially the bad debt. We see Ezra Swiber and etc bring banks trouble. Interest up up up? We will see mortgage loan from property bring another round of problem to banks. Banks heaven? No. When banks earned a lot? Past 10 years since U.S. Interest rate is lowered down to zero, loan activity in peak, commission earned till siao. When we start to hear problem? Last year when offshore loan collapse 1 after 1. Further increase interest rate? Mortgage loan coming. Bad debt. Condo, hdb up how much since 2007-2008 before us market crash? Condo sell how much in 2005, how much in 2012-2013, how much now? Further up interest? Further up monthly installment, rental? Stagnant and down. Property value? Down 20-30% since peak in 2013. Further down, spreading to those buy 2010-2012, property value in present market lower than loan amount? Bad debt, cannot serve the loan, bank vomit blood. Will it be so bad? Potentially.
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TechnicalTrader Master	08-Mar-2017 12:48        TechnicalTrader About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Technical   Mood: Yells: "Traders perform TA using TI. Success rely on Technique used"
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	Last year was last year...  When interest rate should move up? When the economy is doing well... US gdp expected > 2%.  Banks earn what? from our loans and from their investment... more money money put in the banks, they can invest more...  If economy is good, and bank rate is not very high (this is the situation even if rate hike three four times), don' t worry about no body getting loan.. every body got stable income and good company profits. Why the market nowadays never worries about rate hike at all...The US economy is strong and getting stronger... your worries are wrongly timed.... The US economy is stronger now    earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:34) Posted: Why rate hike, banks stock will surely fly? Banks earned through bank commission charge plus sibor charge. Interest rate hike sibor hike, commission the same. Loan interest up, fixed D also up, commission still same. Potential of risk and bad impact? Bad debt increase with higher interest charge. Cash fighting in market with fixed D interest rate to deal with bad debt. Higher gear ratio is required to approve loan package, increase interest, increase monthly installment, reduce the chance of loan approval according to loan convenants and reduce the ability for loan servicing. Reduce loan and borrowing activity, reduce amount of loan package per year. The interest hike benefit for the profit in jumping interest on loan constant interest is temporary, very fast it will catch up by raising fixed D. But the impact of long term is very bad especially the bad debt. We see Ezra Swiber and etc bring banks trouble. Interest up up up? We will see mortgage loan from property bring another round of problem to banks. Banks heaven? No. When banks earned a lot? Past 10 years since U.S. Interest rate is lowered down to zero, loan activity in peak, commission earned till siao. When we start to hear problem? Last year when offshore loan collapse 1 after 1. Further increase interest rate? Mortgage loan coming. Bad debt. Condo, hdb up how much since 2007-2008 before us market crash? Condo sell how much in 2005, how much in 2012-2013, how much now? Further up interest? Further up monthly installment, rental? Stagnant and down. Property value? Down 20-30% since peak in 2013. Further down, spreading to those buy 2010-2012, property value in present market lower than loan amount? Bad debt, cannot serve the loan, bank vomit blood. Will it be so bad? Potentially. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:17) Posted: trust me a bit lah.... chances of up is high...90% confirm rate hike...
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earlybird14 Supreme	08-Mar-2017 12:41        earlybird14 About Contact  Quote this Post! Style: Combined   Mood:
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	So please be sad if interest rate hike. Singapore public loan per person is world no. 1. Interest rate hike no good at all. Property market value, interest rate and monthly salary are in a balance. Down up down, property melt. Up down up, property bull bull. Up up up, best time to sell, so when is it? 2013 when U.S. Sang interest rate hike, you should cash out your property when everything in peak when inflation is picking up. Down down down, best time to buy property since it is sign of bottom when interest to adjust low to deal with minus inflation. Do own due diligence. earlybird14      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:34) Posted: Why rate hike, banks stock will surely fly? Banks earned through bank commission charge plus sibor charge. Interest rate hike sibor hike, commission the same. Loan interest up, fixed D also up, commission still same. Potential of risk and bad impact? Bad debt increase with higher interest charge. Cash fighting in market with fixed D interest rate to deal with bad debt. Higher gear ratio is required to approve loan package, increase interest, increase monthly installment, reduce the chance of loan approval according to loan convenants and reduce the ability for loan servicing. Reduce loan and borrowing activity, reduce amount of loan package per year. The interest hike benefit for the profit in jumping interest on loan constant interest is temporary, very fast it will catch up by raising fixed D. But the impact of long term is very bad especially the bad debt. We see Ezra Swiber and etc bring banks trouble. Interest up up up? We will see mortgage loan from property bring another round of problem to banks. Banks heaven? No. When banks earned a lot? Past 10 years since U.S. Interest rate is lowered down to zero, loan activity in peak, commission earned till siao. When we start to hear problem? Last year when offshore loan collapse 1 after 1. Further increase interest rate? Mortgage loan coming. Bad debt. Condo, hdb up how much since 2007-2008 before us market crash? Condo sell how much in 2005, how much in 2012-2013, how much now? Further up interest? Further up monthly installment, rental? Stagnant and down. Property value? Down 20-30% since peak in 2013. Further down, spreading to those buy 2010-2012, property value in present market lower than loan amount? Bad debt, cannot serve the loan, bank vomit blood. Will it be so bad? Potentially. TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 08-Mar-2017 12:17) Posted: trust me a bit lah.... chances of up is high...90% confirm rate hike...
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investor7 Senior	08-Mar-2017 12:39        investor7 About Contact  Quote this Post!
x 0   x 0  Alert Admin	FOMC meeting next tues 14 & wed 15 march. mkt watchers are already pricing in Fed to raise rates, thus bank stocks are bullish. However, just as what EarlyBird warns, earnings season is almost over, and after a massive rally since Nov/Dec, a pull back is expected. However, dividends handouts from now until May will help keep the mkts buoyant. Myself, I won' t be tempted to add to positions now especially those stocks already at very overbought levels but instead look to take some profit off the table.
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