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Earlybird s talk - Sgx stock
earlybird14
Supreme
06-Mar-2017 06:36     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Uptrend or not, see how this week. But you know I am the prove me with result type, so I have posted mine in noble, i mostly don't agree below😁 😁 😁

1) in fact, operation improve compared to 2015 from gross profit, but again still has to see cash flow. In this market, a lot company doing charity, mean they know the customer has difficulty to pay them money after you deliver the goods to them, but they still do. So record gross profit but cash never come back. This is one of problem why noble cash flow is negative, 2nd is cover their fair value gain, in fact I see a 2nd year continue lower down the net fair value gain which is positive, 3rd is to cover their loss making on selling stock pile. So the negative cash flow take time to remove the bad transaction in the past. How long it take, I also wait for it. So I keep pressuring cash flow. Since to cover this they have to sell underwear 1 by 1 till they absorb the bad transaction and their cash flow will be back to black.

2) no upgrade mean moody don't see improvement as mentioned at 1, they are credit rating firm so they focus more on cash flow generation to pay debt rather than how much company earn, again gross profit is on book if you make profit in your business and whether you receive cash from customers are from cash flow. Both are important but different things.

3) this one is TA. Chart will tell us and market will tell us.

4) I also posted differences between stake buying and take over offer in noble thread. For stake buying, of course price lower, the better since objective of stake buying for big company are same as us, dividend and potential of share price appreciation. No dividend is price appreciation, if both no, why buy leh.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 22:57) Posted:



Looked like retailers are convinced that Noble will continue uptrend this week.

I just repost here some of my concern here.

1,    While the FY2016 results might giive some light to the company. Investors are not particularly impressed. To me, current share price might have factored in the improved prospect outlook of the stock. Share price has been significantly moved up from Q3 (~17cts) to now Q4 (~22cts) already. A 29% increase. Enough? 

2. Moody does not bother to consider uany rating review on Noble. To me, it shows that Moody is not impressed by Q4 improvement. This was my final hope on Noble for the next two months. 

3. Those retailers who had sold their holdings around 27cts are eagerly waiting to re-enter. I observed that there has been accumulation at around current level. Low volume in the past few days suggest that selling pressure has lightened. To me, a break-out above 22.5cts then is considered " safer" to buy.   

4. Retailers especially new buyers has to be careful about anotehr bull trap. Hoping it is not though.

5. Another concern is if the share price is going to move up too high, it may even jeopardize the deal with SinoChem. They will not likely hope to see the price going up before the deal is made.   

I am still observing if the break-out from this    Range-bounded will be materalized on these coming days.

It is just my opinion
 

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earlybird14
Supreme
06-Mar-2017 06:21     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Again TA and FA. Below is pure FA. FA is overall guidance for stock long term prospect and outlooks.

TA are short term price movement which decided by present market (3month to 6month) overall condition, speculation in market, dividend payment period, target price from brokers, and etc to stimulate the price movement. Under such condition, even a company without making profit still can fly kite like past 3 burning master penny stocks Blumont, lion? Forget their name.

So do own due Diligence. Here we talk FA and TA together, so please split them differently. Below is my FA. No TA because not in my chart list

earlybird14      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 06:10) Posted:

I personally don't like dormitory ideal, this is another type of unhealthy trust with shorter term of operation from gov lease less than 30 years, because at that time all shipping trust like RMT FST all are dying fish with their high depreciation cost and short term recovery of investment. You may say this isn't a trust but I can tell you the operation is same as a trust, put in huge investment, collect rental fee and pay back the loan and dividend to shareholders, after 30 years, no more.

So when all of them start operation and listing, I know they will be 2nd shipping trust.

Price swing up and down is common, so I think centurion price hit low and bounce up in last few weeks, especially dividend will be given soon.

But I am quite sure that this stock will move lower and lower peak after peak, so choose a peak price with your TA skill and take profit and leave. I don't dare to give a price since everyone shall bear own liability on every buy and sell. I just try to give my Financial and out look analysis here.

back to last Q balance sheet. First to see trust (although not a trust but about same), is cash flow. This quarter cash flow burn 30mio to 80 mio, don't explain to me, due to repayment, this is they have to pay, negative is negative. The whole year burnt 52 mio from 134 to 80 mio. Dividend payment 14 mio. Overall worse than a trust, at least trust won't burn cash so fast.

Look at debt and property assets. Property Assets 927 mio, borrowing 620mio. Sgx stock always don't dare to depreciate their assets accurately and timely and worry to put too much worry to market confidence, so we look at debt and her ratio to property asset. Frankly speaking not healthy at all. 620 divided 30, 20 mio, so mean minimum 20 mio has to be reduced every year. But you see the growth of property assets and debt growth, debt growth faster, again unhealthy.

So overall above explain why this stock fall from 80 plus till 30, of course part of reason is due to worrying poor economic affect the business in past 2 year. Recently bounce up is due to potential dividend given and bull mode in market. But we have to worry on their cash burning rate. 52mio a year vs 80 mio on hand, if business not improve, next year left 30 mio, 1 more year? Bye bye. So their business has to improve drastically to cover 52 mio cash burning, so profit at least has to double up to 60 mio above since the company has moved into loan repayment period after construction, they have to improve their operation and find cash.

Daxtheman      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 23:06) Posted:

Centurion corp.
- strong upward trend
- undervalue
- ventured into student accommodation
- foreign dorm operator
- rising revenue & profits

Who's vested already? Do share some analysis.
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earlybird14
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06-Mar-2017 06:10     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I personally don't like dormitory ideal, this is another type of unhealthy trust with shorter term of operation from gov lease less than 30 years, because at that time all shipping trust like RMT FST all are dying fish with their high depreciation cost and short term recovery of investment. You may say this isn't a trust but I can tell you the operation is same as a trust, put in huge investment, collect rental fee and pay back the loan and dividend to shareholders, after 30 years, no more.

So when all of them start operation and listing, I know they will be 2nd shipping trust.

Price swing up and down is common, so I think centurion price hit low and bounce up in last few weeks, especially dividend will be given soon.

But I am quite sure that this stock will move lower and lower peak after peak, so choose a peak price with your TA skill and take profit and leave. I don't dare to give a price since everyone shall bear own liability on every buy and sell. I just try to give my Financial and out look analysis here.

back to last Q balance sheet. First to see trust (although not a trust but about same), is cash flow. This quarter cash flow burn 30mio to 80 mio, don't explain to me, due to repayment, this is they have to pay, negative is negative. The whole year burnt 52 mio from 134 to 80 mio. Dividend payment 14 mio. Overall worse than a trust, at least trust won't burn cash so fast.

Look at debt and property assets. Property Assets 927 mio, borrowing 620mio. Sgx stock always don't dare to depreciate their assets accurately and timely and worry to put too much worry to market confidence, so we look at debt and her ratio to property asset. Frankly speaking not healthy at all. 620 divided 30, 20 mio, so mean minimum 20 mio has to be reduced every year. But you see the growth of property assets and debt growth, debt growth faster, again unhealthy.

So overall above explain why this stock fall from 80 plus till 30, of course part of reason is due to worrying poor economic affect the business in past 2 year. Recently bounce up is due to potential dividend given and bull mode in market. But we have to worry on their cash burning rate. 52mio a year vs 80 mio on hand, if business not improve, next year left 30 mio, 1 more year? Bye bye. So their business has to improve drastically to cover 52 mio cash burning, so profit at least has to double up to 60 mio above since the company has moved into loan repayment period after construction, they have to improve their operation and find cash.

Daxtheman      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 23:06) Posted:

Centurion corp.
- strong upward trend
- undervalue
- ventured into student accommodation
- foreign dorm operator
- rising revenue & profits

Who's vested already? Do share some analysis.
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earlybird14
Supreme
06-Mar-2017 05:40     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Stock with good daily volume trading seldom sideline for too long, it will move to 1 direction either up or down after a while.

How we determine support or resistance? when price drop, then go stagnant at low level, this is support level at low, price not dropping only have 2 possibility after long time, selling are dried or buy strength cancel the sell strength.

In such cases, I normally buy at support level my entry price is 38.5. Set cut loss 1-2 pips for my cfd account. How I determine to buy, I observe the chart, in first round settlement at 38-38.5, price hit 39.5, chart show it hit 4hr upper bollinger(resistance), profit taking, back to 38-38.5. This round is opportunists try to buy at low or oversold level or cover short, normally the rally is not sustained and price won't hold at 39.5. When price again at 38-38.5, this is round of testing new low, so I normally wait for 2-3 days and see if it break, no break, I will buy at second time touching after 16-24 hr trading 8hr per day. 2nd testing but price hold is safer to buy. 3rd and 4th testing tend to break 38. So I hope I won't see 38 next week.

Resistance work opposite way, however most of the time, peak price won't last long, it touch and down, but same thing will happen at slightly low level. So it is time to sell or create short sell position.

Talk so much just to explain The principal of buy and sell.

To answer your question high can go higher low can go lower, never say never

For cfd margin holding, I will cut the position so long as 38 is broken without hesitation since this is my cfd trading strategy.

newbie24      ( Date: 06-Mar-2017 00:16) Posted:

Hi EB, any advice if it falls below .38?

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 14:25) Posted:

Chart at 9am at Monday open( bring in upfront better picture.) based on price at 38.5-39(if still at this price)

Support 38.5-39(4hr midbollinger), 38-38.5(historical low with 11-12 day support)

Resistance 40( day mid bollinger) and 42(week mid bollinger and potential day upper bollinger if the bounce is fast enough) 56(month mid bollinger)

Trend line: 15mins and 30mins, 1hr uptrend, 2hr, 4hr sideline line.

Next action: safeguard the 38.5-39 support level against the day downtrend from 40 and swing with the trend line up in next week
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ehclim
Elite
06-Mar-2017 01:32     
 
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 Alert Admin

Fully agreed with your analysis.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 22:57) Posted:



Looked like retailers are convinced that Noble will continue uptrend this week.

I just repost here some of my concern here.

1,    While the FY2016 results might giive some light to the company. Investors are not particularly impressed. To me, current share price might have factored in the improved prospect outlook of the stock. Share price has been significantly moved up from Q3 (~17cts) to now Q4 (~22cts) already. A 29% increase. Enough? 

2. Moody does not bother to consider uany rating review on Noble. To me, it shows that Moody is not impressed by Q4 improvement. This was my final hope on Noble for the next two months. 

3. Those retailers who had sold their holdings around 27cts are eagerly waiting to re-enter. I observed that there has been accumulation at around current level. Low volume in the past few days suggest that selling pressure has lightened. To me, a break-out above 22.5cts then is considered " safer" to buy.   

4. Retailers especially new buyers has to be careful about anotehr bull trap. Hoping it is not though.

5. Another concern is if the share price is going to move up too high, it may even jeopardize the deal with SinoChem. They will not likely hope to see the price going up before the deal is made.   

I am still observing if the break-out from this    Range-bounded will be materalized on these coming days.

It is just my opinion
 

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newbie24
Veteran
06-Mar-2017 00:16     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Hi EB, any advice if it falls below .38?

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 14:25) Posted:

Chart at 9am at Monday open( bring in upfront better picture.) based on price at 38.5-39(if still at this price)

Support 38.5-39(4hr midbollinger), 38-38.5(historical low with 11-12 day support)

Resistance 40( day mid bollinger) and 42(week mid bollinger and potential day upper bollinger if the bounce is fast enough) 56(month mid bollinger)

Trend line: 15mins and 30mins, 1hr uptrend, 2hr, 4hr sideline line.

Next action: safeguard the 38.5-39 support level against the day downtrend from 40 and swing with the trend line up in next week.

earlybird14      ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 19:15) Posted:

Hph trust usd (6 March 2017)

support: 38-38.5

resistance level: 42-43 and 56-57

Suggestion: long buy

First target within 2 weeks: 42-43



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TechnicalTrader
Master
05-Mar-2017 23:14     
 
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 Alert Admin

I do have some understanding about this student and worker dorms. From what I know government has been putting effort to curb/discourage foreign students or workers to arrange home base accommondations. So dorms operators seems to benefit...

But base on market observation, many employers are trying to move their workers out of dorms due to various reasons. Talking to them, many dorms are have many vacant beds.. But their profit margin is high... 

 

 

Daxtheman      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 23:06) Posted:

Centurion corp.
- strong upward trend
- undervalue
- ventured into student accommodation
- foreign dorm operator
- rising revenue & profits

Who's vested already? Do share some analysis.
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Daxtheman
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05-Mar-2017 23:06     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Centurion corp.
- strong upward trend
- undervalue
- ventured into student accommodation
- foreign dorm operator
- rising revenue & profits

Who's vested already? Do share some analysis.
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TechnicalTrader
Master
05-Mar-2017 22:57     
 
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 Alert Admin

Looked like retailers are convinced that Noble will continue uptrend this week.

I just repost here some of my concern here.

1,    While the FY2016 results might giive some light to the company. Investors are not particularly impressed. To me, current share price might have factored in the improved prospect outlook of the stock. Share price has been significantly moved up from Q3 (~17cts) to now Q4 (~22cts) already. A 29% increase. Enough? 

2. Moody does not bother to consider uany rating review on Noble. To me, it shows that Moody is not impressed by Q4 improvement. This was my final hope on Noble for the next two months. 

3. Those retailers who had sold their holdings around 27cts are eagerly waiting to re-enter. I observed that there has been accumulation at around current level. Low volume in the past few days suggest that selling pressure has lightened. To me, a break-out above 22.5cts then is considered " safer" to buy.   

4. Retailers especially new buyers has to be careful about anotehr bull trap. Hoping it is not though.

5. Another concern is if the share price is going to move up too high, it may even jeopardize the deal with SinoChem. They will not likely hope to see the price going up before the deal is made.   

I am still observing if the break-out from this    Range-bounded will be materalized on these coming days.

It is just my opinion
 
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TechnicalTrader
Master
05-Mar-2017 22:28     
 
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 Alert Admin

yes... more like ocbc is using TA to predict Target price...   Or is it coincidence?

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 19:33) Posted:

7.4 is critical resistance.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 17:24) Posted:

Keppel Corp:   Valued by OCBC $7.40?

OCBC is upgrading Keppel Corp to &ldquo buy&rdquo with a higher fair value estimate of S$7.40, from S$6.26 previously, on undemanding valuations amid a stabilising environment.

In Dec last year, OPEC announced it will cut production &mdash the first time in eight years &mdash and has taken steps to signal its resolve to bolster oil prices.

On Tuesday, OPEC&rsquo s secretary general said all OPEC producers part of the supply-cut deal are firmly determined to achieve a higher compliance rate than the 90% compliance reported for Jan.

Should compliance remain high, there is expectation that OPEC could continue to extend its oil output cuts beyond its previously-agreed six month duration.

As for Keppel, it is less likely that the group will continue with impairments, unless there is a sudden drop in oil prices to US$30 range or below, after reporting significant impairments in its FY16 results.

Keppel has also cut its overheads, achieving cost savings of about S$150 million year-on-year. The group has mothballed two overseas yards and is in the process of closing three yards in Singapore.

Meanwhile the property division posted net profit of S$620 million in 2016. Looking ahead, the group still expects healthy sales figures for China and Vietnam.

&ldquo We value Keppel&rsquo s O& M business at 1x P/B, which is not demanding... We also ascribe a 1x P/B to the group&rsquo s property segment,&rdquo says OCBC.



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earlybird14
Supreme
05-Mar-2017 19:33     
 
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 Alert Admin 		7.4 is critical resistance.

TechnicalTrader      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 17:24) Posted:

Keppel Corp:   Valued by OCBC $7.40?

OCBC is upgrading Keppel Corp to &ldquo buy&rdquo with a higher fair value estimate of S$7.40, from S$6.26 previously, on undemanding valuations amid a stabilising environment.

In Dec last year, OPEC announced it will cut production &mdash the first time in eight years &mdash and has taken steps to signal its resolve to bolster oil prices.

On Tuesday, OPEC&rsquo s secretary general said all OPEC producers part of the supply-cut deal are firmly determined to achieve a higher compliance rate than the 90% compliance reported for Jan.

Should compliance remain high, there is expectation that OPEC could continue to extend its oil output cuts beyond its previously-agreed six month duration.

As for Keppel, it is less likely that the group will continue with impairments, unless there is a sudden drop in oil prices to US$30 range or below, after reporting significant impairments in its FY16 results.

Keppel has also cut its overheads, achieving cost savings of about S$150 million year-on-year. The group has mothballed two overseas yards and is in the process of closing three yards in Singapore.

Meanwhile the property division posted net profit of S$620 million in 2016. Looking ahead, the group still expects healthy sales figures for China and Vietnam.

&ldquo We value Keppel&rsquo s O& M business at 1x P/B, which is not demanding... We also ascribe a 1x P/B to the group&rsquo s property segment,&rdquo says OCBC.


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TechnicalTrader
Master
05-Mar-2017 17:24     
 
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 Alert Admin

Keppel Corp:   Valued by OCBC $7.40?

OCBC is upgrading Keppel Corp to &ldquo buy&rdquo with a higher fair value estimate of S$7.40, from S$6.26 previously, on undemanding valuations amid a stabilising environment.

In Dec last year, OPEC announced it will cut production &mdash the first time in eight years &mdash and has taken steps to signal its resolve to bolster oil prices.

On Tuesday, OPEC&rsquo s secretary general said all OPEC producers part of the supply-cut deal are firmly determined to achieve a higher compliance rate than the 90% compliance reported for Jan.

Should compliance remain high, there is expectation that OPEC could continue to extend its oil output cuts beyond its previously-agreed six month duration.

As for Keppel, it is less likely that the group will continue with impairments, unless there is a sudden drop in oil prices to US$30 range or below, after reporting significant impairments in its FY16 results.

Keppel has also cut its overheads, achieving cost savings of about S$150 million year-on-year. The group has mothballed two overseas yards and is in the process of closing three yards in Singapore.

Meanwhile the property division posted net profit of S$620 million in 2016. Looking ahead, the group still expects healthy sales figures for China and Vietnam.

&ldquo We value Keppel&rsquo s O& M business at 1x P/B, which is not demanding... We also ascribe a 1x P/B to the group&rsquo s property segment,&rdquo says OCBC.

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earlybird14
Supreme
05-Mar-2017 14:25     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Chart at 9am at Monday open( bring in upfront better picture.) based on price at 38.5-39(if still at this price)

Support 38.5-39(4hr midbollinger), 38-38.5(historical low with 11-12 day support)

Resistance 40( day mid bollinger) and 42(week mid bollinger and potential day upper bollinger if the bounce is fast enough) 56(month mid bollinger)

Trend line: 15mins and 30mins, 1hr uptrend, 2hr, 4hr sideline line.

Next action: safeguard the 38.5-39 support level against the day downtrend from 40 and swing with the trend line up in next week.

earlybird14      ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 19:15) Posted:

Hph trust usd (6 March 2017)

support: 38-38.5

resistance level: 42-43 and 56-57

Suggestion: long buy

First target within 2 weeks: 42-43


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earlybird14
Supreme
05-Mar-2017 13:32     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Yes it is. Just where price will support, the higher the better.

I saw pumped up at every support level, but the chance are >>>> which mean 8 dollars chance is close to 80%, chance at day chart low bollinger band is just 20%. Reason is simple, maximiZe profit by creating volatile through long buy and shortselling.

If you are funds, took profi 9.78, will you buy back again at 9.4, 9.1, or 8.8 or 8? The lower the better right?. Especially you are super rich fund and your buying are decisive for price movement, the lower the better, because also know pump up from 9.4, you will meet more selling from retailers and other funds, why not push it down or just do nothing, let retailers or others fund lose patient and start to sell and you buy at low.

Then next pump from low, will have less resistance at above 9.78.

Open chart all price move with sine curve, above explain all.

EmmGru      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 12:13) Posted:

Long term uptrend for OCBC :) thanks for the kind words. See how the price go next week.

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 08:45) Posted:

Is this chart moving to long term uptrend?

No yet but going to be.

Touch Month upper with 2 time pump up, 80% move down and seek for support.

Support: day low bollinger (9.35, will move up if 9.42 don't move lower) week mid bollinger (9.1, will move up so long as price stay above 9.1, next week I think 9.15, so long as not fast selling down shall go 9.2-9.3, next next week) month mid bollinger(8.8, down further? Yup because month trend line still moving down, so long as price stay long above 8.8, it will turn up slowly.) it also can be bottom price till below 8 and down further.

So support can be anywhere on top, since these are all level bbs or Traders are watching at. Support and turn up move to long term uptrend.

Nobody will go against trend, everyone want to earn money. So if 9.42 successful defend strongly, it will move up but fail, see support above 1 after 1
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EmmGru
Veteran
05-Mar-2017 12:13     
 
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 Alert Admin 		Long term uptrend for OCBC :) thanks for the kind words. See how the price go next week.

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 08:45) Posted:

Is this chart moving to long term uptrend?

No yet but going to be.

Touch Month upper with 2 time pump up, 80% move down and seek for support.

Support: day low bollinger (9.35, will move up if 9.42 don't move lower) week mid bollinger (9.1, will move up so long as price stay above 9.1, next week I think 9.15, so long as not fast selling down shall go 9.2-9.3, next next week) month mid bollinger(8.8, down further? Yup because month trend line still moving down, so long as price stay long above 8.8, it will turn up slowly.) it also can be bottom price till below 8 and down further.

So support can be anywhere on top, since these are all level bbs or Traders are watching at. Support and turn up move to long term uptrend.

Nobody will go against trend, everyone want to earn money. So if 9.42 successful defend strongly, it will move up but fail, see support above 1 after 1.

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 08:32) Posted:

welcome.

Just went through history, where is support and resistance level. Month, week, day and 4hr low(support), mid(support/resistance), upper(resistance) bollinger band in fact are 20 days average moving line.

So only breaking resistance strongly, then Accummulation at lower level, then you can expect higher.

Just zone into Ocbc month chart, because week chart has sideline after long time range bound between 8.2-9, so month chart is the only available resistance for ocbc after a long term downtrend turn to long term uptrend. When month mid bollinger come down from top approach this range bound, it will attack it.

Resistance are month mid bollinger band(8.9) upper(9.85). Just take note all these average line are moving time to time, because it is downtrend, so it is moving down, now upper is 9.61.

So let's what happen, price broke 8.9, till 9.37 on 8 dec (day chart RSI is overbought), 1hr-4hr trend line sideline, price move into correction. Where? 8.9. Day chart low bollinger band and month chart mid bollinger(resistance turn support after breaking). Then 4hr move sideline line and move up till 9.78, close to 9.85, month upper(resistance), day RSI is overbought. Profit taking till 9.42.

Then range bound 9.65-9.42. Accummulation or stronger distribution? We will know this week based on below observation.

TA is not 100% but just for reference. But sometimes, you know how accurate there are based on history
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earlybird14
Supreme
05-Mar-2017 09:17     
 
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 Alert Admin 		I trust glp CEO who founded glp will not cheat market since doing such business manage so many trusts under glp, his reputation is important.

Since he said got multiple offer, it should have. More bids will drive price high, then draw a bottom line at 2.6 that gic willing selling price, but nobody is so de, so at the same time can't expect sky price, be rational to think, next settling price plus 6-10% which I think will be the offer price.

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 09:09) Posted:

Just take few buy over cases as reference.

If no deal, price will move down slowly slowly slowly, then no deal, Lai Sai all the way.

This kind of dump, just try to put some uncertainty to market and let those think will this price be the selling price? Then sell.

Gic will sell, dividend return really below their commitment to cpf. So if the amount they put into glp, is significant lower than 2.6, they should sell when there are buyers.

investshare      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 08:51) Posted:

Hi EB, why fr share dump, you think deal going to close soon? Thanks
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earlybird14
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earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 09:09) Posted:

Just take few buy over cases as reference.

If no deal, price will move down slowly slowly slowly, then no deal, Lai Sai all the way.

This kind of dump, just try to put some uncertainty to market and let those think will this price be the selling price? Then sell.

Gic will sell, dividend return really below their commitment to cpf. So if the amount they put into glp, is significant lower than 2.6, they should sell when there are buyers.

investshare      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 08:51) Posted:

Hi EB, why fr share dump, you think deal going to close soon? Thanks
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earlybird14
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 Alert Admin 		Just take few buy over cases as reference.

If no deal, price will move down slowly slowly slowly, then no deal, Lai Sai all the way.

This kind of dump, just try to put some uncertainty to market and let those think will this price be the selling price? Then sell.

Gic will sell, dividend return really below their commitment to cpf. So if the amount they put into glp, is significant lower than 2.6, they should sell when there are buyers.

investshare      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 08:51) Posted:

Hi EB, why fr share dump, you think deal going to close soon? Thanks.

earlybird14      ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 23:13) Posted:

Gic sold huge stack at around 2.6 in 2013 to public.

So we can know this is the bottom level gic will sell.

Although market say how good glp are, but I don't see their earning improve a lot, earning I refer more toward the gross profit rather than their 1 time gain profit from property purchase. Since for gic how much assets gain is meaningless, as a sovereign fund, dividend income annually still the main focus( have to pay back to cpf)

So I think gic is eager to sell.

Last week, gic gonna dump, then, I know about time to conclude the deal. So you just observe next few days what price will go, till price go stagnant, then you just plus another 6-10% on it, this will be the final offer price.

Insiders all know what price they are dealing with, so they will allow some buffer on below in case the deal cannot go through.

If the deal fails, ho Ho better sell fast fast
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investshare
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 Alert Admin 		Hi EB, why fr share dump, you think deal going to close soon? Thanks.

earlybird14      ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 23:13) Posted:

Gic sold huge stack at around 2.6 in 2013 to public.

So we can know this is the bottom level gic will sell.

Although market say how good glp are, but I don't see their earning improve a lot, earning I refer more toward the gross profit rather than their 1 time gain profit from property purchase. Since for gic how much assets gain is meaningless, as a sovereign fund, dividend income annually still the main focus( have to pay back to cpf)

So I think gic is eager to sell.

Last week, gic gonna dump, then, I know about time to conclude the deal. So you just observe next few days what price will go, till price go stagnant, then you just plus another 6-10% on it, this will be the final offer price.

Insiders all know what price they are dealing with, so they will allow some buffer on below in case the deal cannot go through.

If the deal fails, ho Ho better sell fast fast.

ehclim      ( Date: 04-Mar-2017 22:16) Posted:



Btw, what is your opinion on GLP on privatisation. When do you think it will be crystalized?


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earlybird14
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 Alert Admin 		Is this chart moving to long term uptrend?

No yet but going to be.

Touch Month upper with 2 time pump up, 80% move down and seek for support.

Support: day low bollinger (9.35, will move up if 9.42 don't move lower) week mid bollinger (9.1, will move up so long as price stay above 9.1, next week I think 9.15, so long as not fast selling down shall go 9.2-9.3, next next week) month mid bollinger(8.8, down further? Yup because month trend line still moving down, so long as price stay long above 8.8, it will turn up slowly.) it also can be bottom price till below 8 and down further.

So support can be anywhere on top, since these are all level bbs or Traders are watching at. Support and turn up move to long term uptrend.

Nobody will go against trend, everyone want to earn money. So if 9.42 successful defend strongly, it will move up but fail, see support above 1 after 1.

earlybird14      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 08:32) Posted:

welcome.

Just went through history, where is support and resistance level. Month, week, day and 4hr low(support), mid(support/resistance), upper(resistance) bollinger band in fact are 20 days average moving line.

So only breaking resistance strongly, then Accummulation at lower level, then you can expect higher.

Just zone into Ocbc month chart, because week chart has sideline after long time range bound between 8.2-9, so month chart is the only available resistance for ocbc after a long term downtrend turn to long term uptrend. When month mid bollinger come down from top approach this range bound, it will attack it.

Resistance are month mid bollinger band(8.9) upper(9.85). Just take note all these average line are moving time to time, because it is downtrend, so it is moving down, now upper is 9.61.

So let's what happen, price broke 8.9, till 9.37 on 8 dec (day chart RSI is overbought), 1hr-4hr trend line sideline, price move into correction. Where? 8.9. Day chart low bollinger band and month chart mid bollinger(resistance turn support after breaking). Then 4hr move sideline line and move up till 9.78, close to 9.85, month upper(resistance), day RSI is overbought. Profit taking till 9.42.

Then range bound 9.65-9.42. Accummulation or stronger distribution? We will know this week based on below observation.

TA is not 100% but just for reference. But sometimes, you know how accurate there are based on history.

EmmGru      ( Date: 05-Mar-2017 01:23) Posted:

Thanks, I was wondering why OCBC was range bound, somebody in the OCBC thread tot it was due to accumulation but you are probably right. I made the mistake of chasing so have book loss while it is range bound now. I will keep a close watch next week. Good idea to open this thread, I always learn a lot from your posts in Noble. Dun always hold the same position as u but learnt not to take big bet against u hahah
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