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Genting SP Next Move
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sohiss
Member |
25-Nov-2016 10:44
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As GENS is expected to increase dividends, thereby optimising its balance sheet, we raise our DCF-based TP to S$1.15 from S$0.91 as we impute a lower beta of 1.0x from 1.05x and increase the target gearing to 30% from 12% previously. Our valuation excludes any Japan casino. |
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sohiss
Member |
25-Nov-2016 10:43
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Potential doubling of dividend to trigger further re-rating. We maintain our BUY call on Genting Singapore (GENS) with a revised TP of S$1.15. Based on our analysis of GENS' s cashflow generation and net cash of c.S$3.7bn, balanced against the redemption of its perpetual securities and potential bid for a Japanese casino, we estimate that GENS has the ability to increase its dividend to 6 Scts per annum up (translating to a 6.3% yield) from our FY15F DPS 3 Scts. We believe the positive market response following the declaration of a 1.5-Sct interim dividend will encourage GENS&rsquo s management to return more cash back to its shareholders. This in turn should continue the rerating post the 3Q16 results. BUY ahead of earnings recovery in FY17. Following two tough years, we believe now is the opportune time to buy into a highly cash-generative business in a two-player oligopoly. We believe 2017 will mark a recovery in earnings (22% jump in adjusted EBITDA) due to (i) recovery in VIP volumes as volumes bottom out this year (we have penciled in a 3% improvement), (ii) normalising VIP win rate to the 2.85% theoretical rate from c.2.6% in 9M16, and (iii) easing of bad debts given GENS&rsquo s more selective and conservative credit policy over the past year. Still on depressed valuations. Despite the recent rally, GENS still offers compelling value, as it trades at 10.6x FY17F EV/EBITDA, which is below &ndash 1SD of its mean of 10.9x. In addition, it trades at a c.30% discount to its Macau peers on an EV/EBITDA basis which close to -1SD of its mean EV/EBITDA differential. With increasing dividends, earnings turnaround in sight and potential Japanese casino in the medium term, we believe GENS can rerate closer to its average EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.1x. |
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
25-Nov-2016 09:48
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My let go price now revised significantly higher than my earlier target. | ||||
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tormater
Senior |
25-Nov-2016 09:26
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From my observation,within 1 week of XD, the price fluctuates too much. Wait until mid next week too stabilize.
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desmondwong
Member |
25-Nov-2016 09:12
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Whoray !!! Chinese New Year is coming.... With the CNY, School holiday, Yearend holiday and $$$ from Jeju Island.....uptrend is coming |
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
25-Nov-2016 07:58
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DBS just issued a rather positive report with a big jump in target price. Anyone serious on this, including shortists, should take a read. |
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FATABA
Supreme |
24-Nov-2016 23:01
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Genting recent rise is more on the disposal of Jeju shares or just a qtr of result ? I find it very surprise that they choose to sell Jeju ( 50% ) ...or are there something we are not aware. Once it was like a GOLD medal to win this licence. Lack of cash ? Reduce risk ? Or that small profit is sufficient .... The reason given is really nothing much...and in fact confusing ...." shift focus ??" ...is not this Jeju the crown jewel when they wanted to invest in the beginning///and certainly at that time we all are also aware of the potential of Japan. Further we nver know when Japn wld approve this.... " " " " " RATIONALE FOR THE DISPOSALS AND USE OF PROCEEDS The Group is comfortable in delivering healthy performance at Resorts World Sentosa. The Group has narrated its shift to focus on different market segments, and has been developing strategies to improve offerings to the affluent target markets. These strategies, including the Group&rsquo s brand repositioning and development of new facilities, will help it grow within its home base in the near term. Recent news reports from Japan are encouraging with regards to the advancement of the process to debate and pass the Integrated Resort Promotion Bill (&ldquo Bill&rdquo ). The Group is optimistic that this Bill will be enacted in the near future. When this happens, significant resources will need to be devoted to position the Group as a strong candidate for the bidding process. This opportunity is of significant value to the growth of the Group. In implementing the Group&rsquo s medium term corporate strategies and taking into consideration the above, the Company has decided to dispose of its 50% interest in the JV Co. The aggregate consideration represents a 10% premium4 to the Group&rsquo s contributions to the JV Co. The Disposals are also value accretive in the short term for the Company&rsquo s shareholders. The Disposals are in the best interest of the Company&rsquo s shareholders in the short and medium term." " " " "
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Battle123
Elite |
24-Nov-2016 22:21
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I think strong forces still there
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ecekca
Elite |
24-Nov-2016 21:05
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true but when the strong forces go away.. will go back to norm
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
23-Nov-2016 21:47
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No courage to sell - there are strong forces pushing this up.
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pinkowl
Supreme |
23-Nov-2016 20:57
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Maybe can. But I won' t short a stock in uptrend channel. Good luck...short more so that I can collect at cheap. Thank you. =)
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ecekca
Elite |
23-Nov-2016 20:50
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time to short?
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lglg666
Supreme |
23-Nov-2016 16:39
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Now ex-div and as expected the share price has corrected. Still looking good👍 | ||||
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KiLrOy
Elite |
23-Nov-2016 09:43
Yells: "I buy only what I can see." |
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XD didnt hurt the price action too much ( still too early in the day to say?), so lets hope this bugger can run up past 1.00 |
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Goldfinger
Supreme |
23-Nov-2016 07:18
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The sheer force of the price momentum and volumes suggests this is not just a response to a good set of results. There could be some fundamental events in the making or re-rating. This has been a dumped stock for the longest while. The change is most welcomed.
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anthonykwong
Supreme |
23-Nov-2016 00:50
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it deserves the up what
results impressive it used to be $2 mind you if japan IR in the pocket, rocket up |
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pinkowl
Supreme |
23-Nov-2016 00:47
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Genting has already risen close to 30% within a few weeks... | ||||
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anthonykwong
Supreme |
22-Nov-2016 23:52
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japan and malaysia very close
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spore1
Supreme |
22-Nov-2016 23:49
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Is still too early to talk about landing one. Haven't even approve! So many contenders waiting to compete! | ||||
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anthonykwong
Supreme |
22-Nov-2016 23:29
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if japan approves IR , and Genting S gets one license there, this stock will rocket to at least $1.50....
monitoring japan legislation on IR closely |
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