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China Fishery - Low PE
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Leongsan
Senior |
09-Jan-2016 09:23
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Should it not be NAV plus profit or loss on sale of Peru assets? PARD also has loans and notes which need to be paid. So is the holding company and the Ngs?   Why is HSBC appearing to be so anti NGs. The other banks.DBS Citic and Rabo, I think, are more supportive. My guess S 60 to 80 cents about there. Do you think share has little free float and cornered?   The US$1.7 bil  price is fair I think. They paid US$800 for Copeinca, plus US$250m notes.for 10%quota, The other old 7% at same price = China need this resource badly for piglets and food. Aqua culture is being replaced by plant feed Omega 6 not 3 in farm bred salmon that are not ocean going
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nngeeh
Veteran |
09-Jan-2016 00:08
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Thanks Bro. Question, Are you adding NAV + Liability + Balance to get 85.2? Shouldn' t it be NAV - Liability, right? Secondly, most of the NAV comprises of the Peru asset which will be sold. After selling Peru, i don' t think there is much left in the other assets. i think it should be NAV = Offer(Peru asset) - liability?  
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
08-Jan-2016 22:33
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Brother, apologies I double counted.  Bro ysh is correct.  Rough com below (US cts)  : NAV                                        =  39 Lia/sh                                      =  32.6 Bal fr sale/sh              =  13.6 Total                                        =  85.2 (SGD 1.22)  
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nngeeh
Veteran |
08-Jan-2016 20:55
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Bro Qanghoo and ysh2006, could you share how you derive at the price of 0.80 SGD and 1.30? What i read was if the deal of 1.7 Billion USD is realised, they will still need to clear the liabilities of USD 1.2 Billion. The remaining amount will probably be around 500 Million USD. The current outstanding shares are 3,683.44 mm. This will work out to be around 0.13 USD per share (around 0.19 SGD based on exchange of 1.43). Of cause, i have no calculated their other assets. Their current cash is around 55 M (around 0. 015 per share). Did i miss any calculation? Seems to be far off from your projected price.
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
08-Jan-2016 12:55
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I' m not on sedatives.  |
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jackong1979
Master |
08-Jan-2016 12:37
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wake up ... dont dream it is 2016 now :D | ||||
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Laoliu
Veteran |
08-Jan-2016 12:20
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Wow ! If really comes truth, those who still holding CF shares will gonna Huat ! Any idea when the SUSP will be lift off?
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
08-Jan-2016 10:30
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My estimate is abt 80c SGD cash, after settling a debt, if 1.7bil comes through.  May be possible.  PRC coys have some track record of paying attractive px to lay hands on controlling scarce resources, n in this case Peru seems a rich anchovy fishing ground.  As another example of gd buyout px, look further than HTL. 
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Leongsan
Senior |
08-Jan-2016 09:56
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How you come to the conclusion of $1.30? Please share
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ysh2006
Supreme |
06-Jan-2016 10:22
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Wow if it is true China Fish after opening can shoot to $1.30 boh... Those investors still holding will be laughting to bank leh...
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Observers
Elite |
06-Jan-2016 07:57
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After having halted for so long, I' m pretty certain most traders have had their positions squared, off market deals or otherwise.   Anyway, there' s an interesting article for long term shareholders on Undercurrent. Cut and paste just a portion. https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2016/01/05/sources-china-giants-likely-bidders-for-pacific-andes-peru-assets/ Sources: China giants likely bidders for Pacific Andes Peru assetsJanuary 5, 2016, 10:16 am
Tom Seaman  and  Alicia Villegas
Large Chinese companies in animal feed and commodities are some of the few players likely to be willing to pay as much as $1.7 billion for the Peruvian assets of Pacific Andes International Holdings, sources told  Undercurrent News. This  price tag, which was revealed by Pacific Andes as it attempts to end the provisional liquidation of China Fishery Group (for all our news on this ongoing story, click here) put in motion by lender HSBC, is considered to be very high by industry sources and analysts covering the sector, given the tough situation in the Peruvian industry. &ldquo They are dreaming at $1.7bn,&rdquo one industry source, not wishing to be quoted by name, told  Undercurrent. In 2013, Pacific Andes&rsquo China Fishery operation took over Copeinca for just under $800 million, fighting off Norway&rsquo s Cermaq. Since, catches in Peru have dived and the total allowable catch has been slashed, due to the impact of El Nino. &ldquo Maybe they will get what they paid [for Copeinca],&rdquo source A said. " If the valuations are correct, it must be a company of significant substance, $1.7bn   is a lot of money. The number of potential bidders is small,and very few are able to cash such a large check," said another top seafood sector CEO, also not wishing to be quoted by name. Pacific Andes has stated the supposed $1.7bn valuation, but did not reveal any more details of the two would-be bidders. Cash rich and expansionist companies in China, however, may be willing to go this high. &ldquo In China, you have a few options,&rdquo said one senior executive with a large aquaculture feed company, who did not wish to be quoted by name (source B). There is limited interest for large companies involved in aqua feed only, such as Nutreco-owned Skretting or BioMar, due to the reduced levels of fishmeal going into aqua feed, said source B. &ldquo If the price goes up, we can drop using fishmeal in salmon feed, or using very much less,&rdquo said the executive. Much lower levels of fishmeal, down to 10%, can be used in salmon feed, he said. &ldquo We can go less than that in the future. So, for us, it [fishmeal] is no longer a strategic raw material." Therefore, securing a source is not as critical as it used to be, he said. " For very large animal feed companies, it remains a serious issue, also, because these big companies are trading fishmeal to others as a commodity," said source B. Although there is more logic for Ewos owner Cargill, which is more active in other animal feed sectors, sources feel the focus for the US company is on integrating its most recent acquisition in salmon feed. On the other hand, big Chinese feed firms, such as New Hope Liuhe or Tongwei Group, are looking to expand in aqua feed and also have large needs for fishmeal for poultry and livestock feed. &ldquo A lot of fishmeal is not going into aquaculture, it is going into other types of feed, like piglet feed,&rdquo said source B. &ldquo New Hope or Tongwei could be interested, as well as DBN Group [Beijing Dabei Nong Technology Group],&rdquo he said. A note from Amino Acids China E-News on the Chinese feed sector states DBN Group established an aquatic business department at the start of last year and is looking to expand fast. &ldquo At present, the firm has seven aquatic feed plants across the country, and will look to increase this number in 2015 by constructing new plants, merging with other companies and acquiring existing plants,&rdquo the note states. In total, DBN Group will invest around RMB 2bn in the aquatic market, aiming to achieve a sales volume of 400,000 metric tons, CCM&rsquo s analysis states. &ldquo Beyond that, the company will look to open at least two new aquatic feed processing plants every year.&rdquo Tongwei has also been expanding, inking a deal for a 100,000t feed factory in China in partnership with BioMar last year. It already  operates across China and in Southeast Asia, with over 100 branches and subsidiaries. The company produced some 4m tons of feed in 2014, of which 2.5m tons were for the aquaculture sector.  According to BioMar' s press release on the joint venture, this makes Tongwei the world&rsquo s  largest aquafeed manufacturer, as well as a major livestock and poultry feed producer. According to Amino Acids China E-News, New Hope also has big expansion plans. According to the note, the company' s &ldquo first aim [is] to expand within Asia, and if this is successful, it will aggressively expand on a global scale&rdquo . New Hope has split the department dealing with overseas business in two, making one half responsible for business development in Asia, and the other half responsible for business development in countries outside Asia, according to the note. New Hope has already established 47 subsidiaries in Southeast Asia since it first entered the market in 1998. China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (Cofco), a state owned commodities trading giant, as well as one of China&rsquo s largest food processors, could also be interested, sources told  Undercurrent. &ldquo Tongwei, New Hope and DBN have a lot of cash and want to go into aquaculture,&rdquo said source B. &ldquo But, from a commodities point of view, you have to mention Cofco. They want to secure commodities,&rdquo he said. &ldquo They are buying farmland and grain trading, so why not fishmeal? If China believes that fishmeal is a strategic ingredient for them, they could very well get hold on that.&rdquo On Jan. 4, Cofco closed the deal for the 49% it didn&rsquo t already own of agricultural trading firm Noble Agri from Noble Group for $750m. &ldquo The acquisition will greatly accelerate COFCO&rsquo s internationalization and global positioning,&rdquo said Frank Gaoning Ning, chairman of Cofco, making the group&rsquo s ambitions of expansion clear. |
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stockpicker
Master |
06-Jan-2016 07:51
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It is China Fishery and its Peruvian assets for USD 1.7 billion.  A reasonable price offer as the NAV is now only USD$2.1 billion or SGD$3 billion.  What will happen to the shareholders after this? http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:oo7euWOYSrwJ:www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp%3Fmonthyear%3D%26day%3D6%26id%3D81440%26l%3De%26special%3D%26ndb%3D1%2520target%3D+& cd=2& hl=en& ct=clnk& gl=sg   |
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nngeeh
Veteran |
05-Jan-2016 23:58
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  Their bond price has raisen from 49 to 59 after the announcement. Seems that their bond price is starting to recover. However, CFG' s price plunged due to CAD investigation, and that was before the HSBC tried to liquidate CFG. If CFG lifted the suspension, will be price bounced back? |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
05-Jan-2016 23:37
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Yep, px seems a bit overly optimistic.  But that was what was reported.  I can only think that one possibility cld be  some PRC coy trying to get a direct foothold on the Peruvian fishmeal business for the Chinese mkt n CFG does have a sizeable anchovy quota in Peru n a lot of their end product is sold to the PRC. 
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earthling_Seer
Member |
05-Jan-2016 23:25
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I wonder how realistic is the selling price. At 1.7b, is way above the 800M they paid for the Peruvian business. Let' s see how this develops. I see a slight hope in the saga.
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Observers
Elite |
05-Jan-2016 13:59
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From Investopedia.DEFINITION of ' Enterprise Value (EV)'Enterprise Value, or EV for short, is a measure of a company' s total value, often used as a more comprehensive alternative to equity  market capitalization. The market capitalization of a company is simply its share price multiplied by the number of shares a company has outstanding. Enterprise value is calculated as the market capitalization  plus  debt,  minority interest  and  preferred shares,  minus  total cash and  cash equivalents. Often times, the  minority  interest and preferred equity is effectively zero, although this need not be the case.   From their 3Q2015 quarterly report,  The total number of issued shares excluding treasury shares as at the end of the current financial period: 3,683,438,182 shares   Any thoughts on this latest development?
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
05-Jan-2016 09:43
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Think they are in other areas of fishing too, eg, Africa.  But Peru seems to contribute the main share of business.  Need to see what they do next.  They went into Peru bigtime (n accumulated a mountain of debt in doing so)   cos kena accused by Russians of monopoly in Pollack business.  Now, like being forced to see out the Peruvian business.  Maybe n hopefully, they' ve learned their lesson n perhaps take on another related business at a lower cost.  Alternatively, wld they decide to return cash instead?  Let' s see how things work out. 
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earthling_Seer
Member |
05-Jan-2016 09:34
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If CFG sells its Peruvian business, wouldn' t that leave it as an empty shell company?
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
05-Jan-2016 07:24
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If I' ve read the latest announcement by PARD correctly, they are making headway in  working towards the discharge of of provisional liquidators for CFG n withdrawal of the winding up order against  CFG with support from lenders.  Moreover, they  are reported to be seeking the sale of CFG' s Peruvian business n it appears that there are offers of 1.7 bil USD for it.  If this is correct, n the sale is successful, wldn' t this put CFG in a substantial net cash position, after discharging its total liability of abt 1.2 bil USD.  If all goes well, share px shd chiong after suspension is lifted? |
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Qanghoo
Supreme |
14-Dec-2015 15:23
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Wow, is it they found coy too much asset to cover debt?
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