ShareJunction - Member Posts

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CIFHY is a ADR traded in US stock market for those US guy who does not have access to Singapore shares. ADR usually follows its trend in mother share. In this case, the ADR price was much worse than mother share B0Z.SI for the past months as can be seen from this Yahoo comparison. It is also very lightly traded.

SLPY69 ( Date: 04-Apr-2014 01:11) Posted:

You think I anyhow quote. It was reported that China Fishery' s price (US : OTC) increased significantly.

Watch out for Imarpe quota news ... to be released.

With the increase in China consumption, fishmeal imports volume and price look set to increase significantly.

I did not anyhow quote ... OK

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This website does not like google repost.. may need to copy or paste

http://ebookbrowsee.net/pada07prf-pdf-d38953329

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Is there a RAS plant or a feasibility made in Singapore that run breakeven with operation cost or it is just a wild guess? Malaysia's Fishery Department has 2 study plants and claimed to have IRR of more than 10%, much depend on the prevailing fish price which is going up by the day..a feasibility study was done in 2007..

http://www.google.com.sg/url?sa=t& rct=j& q=& esrc=s& frm=1& source=web& cd=1& cad=rja& uact=8& ved=0CCYQFjAA& url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.unuftp.is%2Fstatic%2Ffellows%2Fdocument%2Fpada07prf.pdf& ei=Zn4uU6-GCYPyrQfA7oD4Dg& usg=AFQjCNEg5ZJ25XUT_2MlYbyUsyu2N75nyg& bvm=bv.62922401,d.bmk

Singapore Government has done projects which many found no business sense one of which is the Garden at the Bay spending over $1.6 bil excluding land cost with maintenance cost of around $50 mil per year. They claimed that this project will value add Singapore's properties which many did not believe.

Singapore has no natural resources.. and the World resources are quickly depleting... A fish meal price today has doubled since 1984, 30 years ago.. the rate of price rise is expected to escalate in the future. Singapore Government must always look forward and not backward..

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=fish-meal& months=360

Observers ( Date: 23-Mar-2014 07:29) Posted:

Agree. The only kind of business our Singapore government will never do is lost money business. And, they are probably not interested in break even, thin-margin businesses either. Which is a good thing because we probably don't have oil money to burn like in the Emirates.

FlyingStocks ( Date: 23-Mar-2014 03:48) Posted:

Singapore is unable to compete with other country in RAS, inland over head so expensive, got to engage foreign aquaculture specialist in constructing the RA System and employ specialist to run the system, the out put might not be able to break even the operation cost. (Feed mills, electricity bill, fingerlings cost, and labour etc....) May be in Malaysia....

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Singapore should go for this type of Industrial fish farming..if they are do it in Abu Dhabi, Emirate, Poland and Israel, there is no reason Singapore cannot do it..

http://jewishbusinessnews.com/2013/02/27/aqua-maof-the-largest-industrialized-fish-farming-facility-in-europe-has-been-inaugurated-in-poland/

and this is what we call high tech fish farming in Singapore, some solar panels and oxygen monitoring system.. yet so many fishes in Singapore died recently..

http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big-story/ndp-2013/story/fish-farming-goes-high-tech-20130723

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Presently, 1/2 metric tons of fish meal is used to produce about 1 metric tons of feed for aqua culture but this ratio kept reducing as the cost of fish meal increases and the alternative source of feed becomes available. There is no reason why aqua culture industries must totally depend on fish meals..

http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/aquaculture/faqs/faq_feeds.html#1what

Observers ( Date: 22-Mar-2014 14:53) Posted:

And guess where all that fish meal for aqua culture comes from. These mega aquaculture farms are actually big clients of CF.

stockpicker ( Date: 22-Mar-2014 12:37) Posted:

The biggest competitor that CF and other sea fishing companies will face will be the aqua cultural farm. The latter is growing at a rate of about 6% per year and is now producing at least 80 million tons per year or about half of the World's total fish consumption. Many years ago, one would never think that the World largest RAS (Recurculating Aquacultural System) can be anywhere except in the desert country like Abu Dhabi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tnr--qcgbqE

If Abu Dhabi can do it, why can't Singapore....a multi-storey storey RAS.. Singapore is all surrounded by sea..

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The biggest competitor that CF and other sea fishing companies will face will be the aqua cultural farm. The latter is growing at a rate of about 6% per year and is now producing at least 80 million tons per year or about half of the World's total fish consumption. Many years ago, one would never think that the World largest RAS (Recurculating Aquacultural System) can be anywhere except in the desert country like Abu Dhabi

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tnr--qcgbqE

If Abu Dhabi can do it, why can't Singapore....a multi-storey storey RAS.. Singapore is all surrounded by sea..

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The issue of warrants at $1/= to CapIII-A is both a blessing and a curse which may not work out well for China Fish and its shareholder in a longer term. It is a blessing to the short term speculators who see the opportunity to speculate the share price to reach $0.52. It is a curse to the longer term holders because the $0.52 hurdle will become an overhang. When the share ever reach $0.52, there will be fear of share dilution of 90 millions whether CapIII-A exercises its rights.

It is dirty trick, like a sword that has two edges. Most likely, it would not work out well otherwise, every stock will follow suit and do likewise to raise money and to retain its investors. This trick will never be better than to rely on the sound and proofing method to improve the financial fundamentals to gain the confidence of the investors.

China Fish did the same trick in 2010 when it offered 26 mil warrants for USD$1 to an independent party with exercise price of $2.10 when the share price was $0.8.. the share price was pushed to a high of only $1.30. The warrant expired in 2013 but the price dropped to 0.32. It will follow the same path if China Fish cannot improve its financial fundamentals?

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It is better for them to delist Copeninca because it is hardly traded in Oslo market and the price kept dropping since CF took over.. they might want to list in SGX.. LOL

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=COP.OL#symbol=COP.OL range=1y

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Sounds as if Pacific Andes is very strong financially..

flyfox ( Date: 03-Mar-2014 18:23) Posted:

Anyway Im not really afraid of the debts and stuff. Because behind China fishery is Pacific andes,

stockpicker ( Date: 03-Mar-2014 08:01) Posted:

Found out that the amount was amount due from immediate holding companies.. may be a juggling of funds for tax avoidance before.

http://pertama.freeforums.net/thread/497/chinafish?page=1& scrollTo=3599

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Found out that the amount was amount due from immediate holding companies.. may be a juggling of funds for tax avoidance before.

http://pertama.freeforums.net/thread/497/chinafish?page=1& scrollTo=3599

stockpicker ( Date: 28-Feb-2014 09:09) Posted:

There was no explanation. Can be anything. But it is not under the " account or notes receivable" and under other receivable therefore, it is not directly related to business. It may be a pledge or something that " drop from the sky" as it was not reflected in past years' balance sheet. it is so glaring, standing up like a sore thumb, boosting up the current assets by 230%. It may also be an error in Business Weeks' data. The Copeninca's website is not working properly there is no way to check. The flash reports in Copenica's website described the company with flying colors...now who is right and who is wrong?

newbie888 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 23:17) Posted:

why can't it just be debt that is not due yet?

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There was no explanation. Can be anything. But it is not under the " account or notes receivable" and under other receivable therefore, it is not directly related to business. It may be a pledge or something that " drop from the sky" as it was not reflected in past years' balance sheet. it is so glaring, standing up like a sore thumb, boosting up the current assets by 230%. It may also be an error in Business Weeks' data. The Copeninca's website is not working properly there is no way to check. The flash reports in Copenica's website described the company with flying colors...now who is right and who is wrong?

newbie888 ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 23:17) Posted:

why can't it just be debt that is not due yet?

stockpicker ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 16:11) Posted:

There must be a reason why the total receivable is 10 times in 2013. One possible reason is CF found many debtors which the former management could have given up collecting debts from them. If one google, one would have found it very expensive to raise letter of credit(LC) in Peru for some reasons and most transaction are done in Promissory notes backed by guarantors. May be defaults on LC is very common there.

Hope CF will not run into debt collection problem in Peru as court prosecutions will take a long time

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There must be a reason why the total receivable is 10 times in 2013. One possible reason is CF found many debtors which the former management could have given up collecting debts from them. If one google, one would have found it very expensive to raise letter of credit(LC) in Peru for some reasons and most transaction are done in Promissory notes backed by guarantors. May be defaults on LC is very common there.

Hope CF will not run into debt collection problem in Peru as court prosecutions will take a long time.

stockpicker ( Date: 27-Feb-2014 11:12) Posted:

This is Copeninca's Dec balance sheet..

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=COP:NO& dataset=balanceSheet& period=A& currency=native

it is slightly better than CF but no much better. The former management appears to have left Copeninca in a horrible state which saw total receivable jumped almost 10 times from 27 mil to 248 mil and Long term debt from 183 mil to 250 mil... its ratio is lagi worse..with many financial ratios under water.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/ratios.asp?ticker=COP:NO

Just hope CF can manage to turn the company around by end of this year as promised..

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This is Copeninca's Dec balance sheet..

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/financials.asp?ticker=COP:NO& dataset=balanceSheet& period=A& currency=native

it is slightly better than CF but no much better. The former management appears to have left Copeninca in a horrible state which saw total receivable jumped almost 10 times from 27 mil to 248 mil and Long term debt from 183 mil to 250 mil... its ratio is lagi worse..with many financial ratios under water.

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/ratios.asp?ticker=COP:NO

Just hope CF can manage to turn the company around by end of this year as promised..

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I would be very careful when I read company's announcement especially about their abilities to meet certain requirements. A good company will need no such announcements as their balance sheets and financial statements will tell everything Besides having a very high debt level, CF also has some other warning signs such as low current ratio, low dividend yield, low revenue to receivable ratio, low acid test ratio and low working capital ratio etc etc. One will see CF's price going nowhere unless they can improve these ratios and figures.

hhttp://www.accountingtools.com/working-capital-ratio

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/acidtest.asp

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Fitch downgraded China Fish to negative on Dec 3, 2012 and re-affirmed negative rating on 4 July 13. It now said the credit rating profile has weakened..can mean China Fish's rating is now below negative...

stockpicker ( Date: 24-Feb-2014 19:37) Posted:

I copied it verbatim from here.. it just re-affirmed the negative rating and referring reader to 4 July 2913 rating revision..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/24/fitch-china-fisherys-liquidity-needs-man-idUSFit69124420140224

" China's Fishery's credit profile has weakened following the acquisition of Copeinca ASA for USD778m in August 2013. The Negative Outlook on the company's ratings reflects its elevated risk profile following this transaction. For more information see Fitch's rating action commentary " Fitch Revises China Fishery's Outlook to Negative Affirms Ratings" dated 4 July 2013"

JMS213 ( Date: 24-Feb-2014 14:15) Posted:

Bro, what Fitch is saying NOW is China Fishery has adequate liquidity to manage its higher refinancing need. Fitch is also of the view the fact that the providers of the bridging loan are among the banks in line to participate in the refinancing exercise. In another word, no problem.

What you have just mentioned is in the PAST.

For more information see Fitch's rating action commentary " Fitch Revises China Fishery's Outlook to Negative Affirms Ratings" dated 4 July 2013.

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I copied it verbatim from here.. it just re-affirmed the negative rating and referring reader to 4 July 2913 rating revision..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/24/fitch-china-fisherys-liquidity-needs-man-idUSFit69124420140224

" China's Fishery's credit profile has weakened following the acquisition of Copeinca ASA for USD778m in August 2013. The Negative Outlook on the company's ratings reflects its elevated risk profile following this transaction. For more information see Fitch's rating action commentary " Fitch Revises China Fishery's Outlook to Negative Affirms Ratings" dated 4 July 2013"

JMS213 ( Date: 24-Feb-2014 14:15) Posted:

Bro, what Fitch is saying NOW is China Fishery has adequate liquidity to manage its higher refinancing need. Fitch is also of the view the fact that the providers of the bridging loan are among the banks in line to participate in the refinancing exercise. In another word, no problem.

What you have just mentioned is in the PAST.

For more information see Fitch's rating action commentary " Fitch Revises China Fishery's Outlook to Negative Affirms Ratings" dated 4 July 2013.

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Among many, the banks will consider risks as well as collaterals more important is whether one can pay the interest. CF is still earning profits. Most likely the banks will not " pull the rag" unless CF is losing money and cannot afford to pay the bank interest. Meantime, getting to refinance the loan should be no problem.

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That was what everyone was hoping for and that was what CF must have thought of in the first instance:- Copenica can bring enough profits. Fitch has this to say:-

" China's Fishery's credit profile has weakened following the acquisition of Copeinca ASA for USD778m in August 2013. The Negative Outlook on the company's ratings reflects its elevated risk profile following this transaction."

JMS213 ( Date: 24-Feb-2014 10:43) Posted:

There is something amissed, it is not about the debt to EBITDA.

BUT importantly, did they make the right decision in acquiring Copeinca ? If it is the right strategic move, then cheer to all the shareholders, the debt to EBITDA will come down.

Now the crux of the matter, are they able to secure the refinancing loan from the banks ? According to a report the facilities went towards China Fishery for the $650m refinancing loan ..... soon to be announced.

The vessel, Lafayette that was out of job for a while, NOW has being deployed. China Fishery is cruising ....

stockpicker ( Date: 23-Feb-2014 00:45) Posted:

When one has a steady income, it is fine to borrow and buy more houses provided his income can repay the loan within a comfortable period. For companies, this is around 4.5 to 5 years for individuals, it is higher because the interest is much lower for just buying houses due to less risk. SingTel presently has a total debt of about SGD16 biln and the debt to EBITDA is about 3.4, borrowing another USD$1.8 biln just bring it below 4.0 which is acceptable. As for CF, before acquiring Copeninca, its debt to EBITDA was already around 4 to 4.5 prompting Moody, S& P and one other agency to downgrade its rating. After acquiring Copeninca and swallowed up another SGD$ 1 bln debt, the debt to EBITDA is more than 10 which is alarmingly high. Unless CF can fetch earnings which is 3 times the present otherwise, the business is a going concern

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When one has a steady income, it is fine to borrow and buy more houses provided his income can repay the loan within a comfortable period. For companies, this is around 4.5 to 5 years for individuals, it is higher because the interest is much lower for just buying houses due to less risk. SingTel presently has a total debt of about SGD16 biln and the debt to EBITDA is about 3.4, borrowing another USD$1.8 biln just bring it below 4.0 which is acceptable. As for CF, before acquiring Copeninca, its debt to EBITDA was already around 4 to 4.5 prompting Moody, S& P and one other agency to downgrade its rating. After acquiring Copeninca and swallowed up another SGD$ 1 bln debt, the debt to EBITDA is more than 10 which is alarmingly high. Unless CF can fetch earnings which is 3 times the present otherwise, the business is a going concern

guoyanyunyan ( Date: 20-Feb-2014 07:45) Posted:

SingTel is finalising a $1.8 billion loan with a group of local and international banks, Basis Point, a Thomson Reuters publication, reported on Wednesday. link

...how is this loan amount compare to China Fish loan...may be this is wrong comparison..different sector etc...just to have a feel that big and sound company do need loan and the size of loan needed...

... last:$0.415...

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What are the good news that has been released from under the pillow? The only good news released so far was they turned Copenica from losing to profit making. The known news was that the profits made just not good enough to pay back the loan until some 14 years later.