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| 21-May-2014 06:49 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Having posted, I see there is a ray of hope in CF' s ichimoku chart in which its closing price crossing up its Tenkan Sen, which could mark the beginning of the bullish move ahead but it is still too early to judge as the crossing of Tenkan Sen happened once so very often. The cluster of indicators below the ichimoku cloud tells me that CF is still very very weak. Its price can only be lifted when there is some exciting news comings. Disclaimer: I am not vested and I am still watching the development and how El-Nino and the CF' s debts. 
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| 21-May-2014 06:33 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Which effective means there is no trading pattern except for the narrowing of the bollinger band that could go both ways. Yes. The narrowing of the bollinger band and the rest of the indicators such as stochastic, Williams, RSI and the whole bunch of otheres are indicating that CF was over sold and due for a up-correction any time soon but there must be opportunities and with the support of BBs which is just not there judging from this volume distribution chart. It' s ability to take off in the positive direction will be a question unless one were to argue on the grounds that the BBs were " shorting down" CF to accumulate but the price action says otherwise that they failed miserably. One will have to see how CF develop further before one can be sure which direction it would want to move. 
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| 20-May-2014 11:06 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Candlesticks reveals the trading characteristic and the patterns often predict the future trading ahead.. May we be enlightened as to what patten did you see?
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| 20-May-2014 11:01 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Gooded luck
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| 19-May-2014 20:15 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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El Nino is beginning to form and may be worst that 1997/98. This was the prediction. Going without saying, fish price of some fishes are expected to rise. There were much speculation that because fish price will rise, it will benefit CF although the catch would be much reduced. From the readings of the past financial reports of Copeinca and CF, there appears to be some increase in profits during the El-Nino years although the fish price had risen much more. Then, the aquacultural fish farming production was not as much as today which is around 50% of the World&rsquo s fish production. That prompted a question: Would El-Nino also much affected the production of aquacultural farming as normal fishing? As we know, aquacultural farming can be artificially controlled or assisted. If the is lack of O2 or CO2 due to El-Nino, they can be pumped into the water and so on. There were little information available except a table that could be found in the FAO. That table shows the production of fish for normal catch vs aquaculture farming for a 6-year period before 1999. 
The point is that in year 1998 when El-Nino was at its height, the aquacultural and inland fish production was not affected at all although we saw a significant drop in the catch of the marine fishes. Then if we compare the aquacultural and normal catch described in the following website, the aquacultural production is less than 1/5 of the normal catch production in 1999. http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x8002e/x8002e04.htm This will bring to the point that apart from some species of fishes that are not reared in the aqualcultural farms, the fish prices of other species might not be exorbitantly high in the coming El-Nino as some of us have projected here. |
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| 16-May-2014 20:45 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Yes.. the price will rise when the catch is affected by El Nino like in 2010 but then, the price has already risen more than double in the last few years.. how much it can go up is another unknown as the aqua cultural fishing has also nicreased their production in the last few years. As for year 2010, Copeinca made some money but not a lot more although the price had increased
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| 16-May-2014 20:41 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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" Leave the catch to the expert, they are not worried about " can we catch 2.53 tons" rather 2.53 tons is all we' ll have to sell ..... that' s the limit set by the Ministry." It is true that max they can catch is 2.53 tons but this was not the reason reported as to why they stopped taking orders for fish meal. The reported reason was &ldquo We are waiting to see how the fishing goes before selling,&rdquo said one producer, who said he expected prices to stay at those levels for the coming season. One producer said they had sent vessels out as soon as the season opened at midnight on Wednesday April 23, but had not caught anything yet. Research from Peru&rsquo s marine institute Imarpe has suggested that the stock will have high levels of juvenile fish, said this supplier. &ldquo So maybe we will have a mini-ban during this season. It&rsquo s not sure we&rsquo ll be able to complete our TAC.&rdquo &ldquo We have to keep monitoring Peruvian fishing conditions &ndash probably mini bans due to juveniles &ndash as well as weather conditions in China to forecast the next prices. In this very moment, prices are firm,&rdquo said another exporter. http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/04/24/fishmeal-players-hold-off-on-orders-for-now-as-season-makes-early-start/ |
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| 16-May-2014 09:10 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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It has been the case for quite sometimes that CF will plunge when they announce the earning results. This was because those earnings were not up to expectation. After sometime as usual, the price would be corrected and rise but soon after, it would fall again. This time, it could be quite different. CF has now choked up massive debts for Copeinca to the tune of $80mil in annual interest payment.. But CF managed to diversify itself into fishmeal and fishoil production. Whether it is good or bad is still not quite known because the former Copeinca Management did not manage to keep the company well above water levels and they were eager to dispose of it. Lets hope CF can manage Copeinca better than its former management as what CF has better is the network link to Chinese as well as many overseas markets. The only worry now is the El Nino which is now taking shape and has begun to affect the catch. They have already stop to take fishmeal orders is something that one cannot ignore but worry about the impact it would have on Copeinca' s bottom line. Also, this happens at a time when the fishing season has just started and Peru has allowed increase in the quota.. For some reasons if Copeinca cannot get good turn-around profits this year, it would definitely affect CF' s financial performance. some food for thought. |
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| 14-May-2014 14:04 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Could not quite understand why the fishmeal players are holding off the orders. There would be 2 reasons1. Waiting for the price increase 2. Expecting the catch to be affected by La Nino [quote] Fishmeal players hold off on orders for now as season makes early start April 24, 2014, 1:15 pm
As the year&rsquo s first anchovy season in Peru kicks off to an early start, fishmeal sellers out of Peru are holding off on booking too many orders for now in anticipation of a firm market ahead. A potential high level of small anchovy in the catch could see Peru&rsquo s first fishing season hit by several &lsquo mini-bans&rsquo on fishing, three large Peruvian producers told Undercurrent News. This, combined with uncertainty over this year&rsquo s El Nino effect and over demand in China, coupled with relatively low inventories in Peru and a moderate fishing quota, mean prices are expected to remain firm if not go up in the coming months, said the exporters. http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/04/24/fishmeal-players-hold-off-on-orders-for-now-as-season-makes-early-start/ [unquote] |
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| 14-May-2014 13:48 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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This was the outlook and propect quoted in CF' s latest financial report " Experts on climate have raised the possibility of an El Nino effect impacting the South Pacific Ocean later in 2014. Expert opinions vary as to the predicted likelihood or severity of El Nino if it occurs. If it were to develop, there would be an impact on the Peruvian anchovy catch in Peruvian waters which would vary in line with the strength of the El Nino. There are indications that the current catch in Peru is lower than anticipated, which may or may not indicate the early signs of El Nino. The Group will continue to monitor this situation closely and will make any appropriate adjustments, if necessary. " |
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| 14-May-2014 13:47 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Thanks.. got my zero missed up..1000*0.08 is 80 mil
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| 14-May-2014 13:30 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Debt is one thing. The business is another. Once the company can earn, there is no worry about interest except the profits may be erroded. But once the business is not growing and the receivable together with inventory is growing, this is an alarm which one must pay attention. As shown in Yahoo finance, CF' s 2003 revenue has reduced whereas its receivable and inventory has risen. Hope this is just a temporary " blip" and the acquiring of Copeinca can help except that it is looking at a huge debt with fishing catch in Peru facing a serious La Nino. 
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| 14-May-2014 12:45 |
China Fishery
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They don' t borrow from Chinese Banks most of the loans from local banks or some other banks. But still at very high interest.. read somewhere, it was around 8% pa that is $800K interest payment per year. Believe its full interest payment has not all come in full swing as the big loans were only secured just last year.
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| 08-May-2014 13:21 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Think he was trying to say that pple are leaving aquacultural farming and this move will help China Fish.. but this is not possible.. the wild catch price has gone double in the last few years, not because there was a demand but rather the catch is getting less and less. This made way for aquacultural farming to grow. The capital and maitenance cost of aqua can be high.. the set up, the electricity, the disease controls. the workmanship etc. If China Fish is going for aquacultural, I might be interested in this stock.
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| 08-May-2014 12:59 |
China Fishery
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Why they are not allowed to invest in aquacultural? Bank control of Pescanova could mean sale back on for shrimp, salmon farmsMay 2, 2014, 5:11 pm
Now in control of Pescanova, banks will decide on future of Pescanova&rsquo s Latin American shrimp and salmon activities in next two weeks, while determining whether to appoint a CEO or industrial partner for the group, financial source told Undercurrent News http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/05/02/sources-bank-control-of-pescanova-could-mean-sale-back-on-for-shrimp-salmon-farms/
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| 08-May-2014 11:15 |
China Fishery
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The reader should be given the full pictures... here are the website you quote and the one I found.. let the readers read if it is written clearly..Percanova is in financial trouble, refrain from investing.. http://www.thefishsite.com/fishnews/23056/peru-needs-118-million-to-reduce-gap-in-aquaculture http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/05/02/new-pescanova-plan-leaves-aquaculture-out/ |
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| 08-May-2014 09:43 |
China Fishery
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No offence but I found the truth about Pescanova not investing in aquaculture.. nothing to do with with Peru spending money to reduce the gap... New Pescanova plan leaves aquaculture out
May 2, 2014, 9:04 am
As the creditor banks&rsquo bailout plan for Pescanova is said to have received backing from almost 70% of creditors, the future for the company&rsquo s aquaculture businesses is looking uncertain. New Pescanova, the company that will result from the restructuring plan should creditors back it, will continue focusing on fishing and processing, but will have to pull a damper on the aquaculture adventure started more than a decade ago by the company&rsquo s former chairman Manuel Fernandez de Sousa Faro, reported the local newspaper, La Voz de Galicia. According to the newspaper, the Spanish multinational will not be allowed to spend the &euro 125 million capital injection proposed in new restructuring plan on its aquaculture businesses. |
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| 30-Apr-2014 12:22 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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This scenario will work and CF will prosper if the price goes up and the catch and the cost remain the same unfortunately, there are alternatives. As the prices go up, the alternatives will take over the market as they become viable to produce in big quantities to replace the stock. There is no species that cannot be raised in captivity it is just a matter of research, cost and cultivation. When it is cost effective, they will do it. Also, when the housewive go marketing, they will always choose the cheaper ones no matter what other have said. Under such pricing structures and development, it will not be favor of CF who would eventually suffer unless they can innovate. Naturally, there will be some die hards who can afford will go for natural catch. They believe that natural catches have lesser dieseases and taste much better. There was a time when natural pearls was the only ornament pearls available today, 95% of the World production are cultured pearls. The natural pearls is only for those who can afford and everyone knew that cultural pearls are not the same nor they are as good as natural pearls. Many industries who believed that cultured pearls cannot replace natural pearls have to close down or innovate to produce cultured pearls to survive. Just my 2 cts worth and I would not make another go at this subjectmatter anymore. " This graph provided by Stockpicker makes thing easy to grasp & clear, with the catch remaining unchange while the price continue to trend upward. The fish industry will continue to thrive. The management has definitely done the right thing to be the market leader in the industry. Prepare for the catch .... China Fishery  加 油 "
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| 28-Apr-2014 11:51 |
China Fishery
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Sori.. the table quoted should be in millions of tons |
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| 28-Apr-2014 11:35 |
China Fishery
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Many thought that Peru has very large fishery output that supply all to China and the rest of the World. Here is picture of FAO. China has 30% of the World output in 2011 whereas Peru has only about 5%. Further, China has 50,000 tons of aquaculture production as compared to 16,000 tons of wild catch. If the price of the wild catch were to increase again, it would definitely change this ratio.. 
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