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| 10-Jun-2014 11:38 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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This El Nino in 1997 covered the whole of Peru plus Chile http://www.vox.com/cards/el-nino-2014/will-we-get-strong-el-nino Will this coming El-Nino be as bad? Let see but our temperature is being push higher and higher by El-Nino since 1980 
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| 10-Jun-2014 11:22 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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And that picture was in 2003 when El-Nino was just a moderate one.. trying to find one that happened in 1998.. |
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| 10-Jun-2014 11:17 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Do you know how serious is El-Nino? It spreaded from Southern China to middle Australia.. This one shows that Peru was not spared totally.. http://rmrco.com/cruise/ata/reports/100410_ElNino1/index.html 
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| 10-Jun-2014 10:56 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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El-Nino was there since the 16th century. The Peru fishermen were the ones who came up with that name. Since then, the technologies has changed. They have better trawlers and fishing equipment. They have sonic sensors that can track the where-about of the fishes. They have also satellites that can tell the fishermen exactly where the fishes in the South but one thing the technologies cannot do is to change the weather, the El-Nino that is going to happen in the coming months. When the fishes swim south, it will benefit Chile but sad to say, Chile is also affected badly by El-Nino as this is a Global event that very few can avoid from the disastrous results. One thing for sure, the technlogies will help the aqua-cultural fish farm to become even stronger after the El-Nino when the fish supplies from the sea dwindled down and the fish consumptions picks up. Some species which may be too expensive to rear in aqua-cultural fish farms before will become possible when the price of fishes goes up due to El-Nino. This will make companies that solely depend on sea fishing and sea catch more difficult to survive. There was a common saying before we have reliable weather forecast of El-Nino. That is if one wants to know when El-Nino will come, check with the Peruvian Fishermen. I am quite sure those former management of Copeinca and other Peru fishing companies knew about the seriousness of the coming El-Nino and they are more than happy to dispose off their assets. They must have gone through the hardships experienced during the last El-Nino in 1998. They were probably laughing their ways to the banks right now. |
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| 10-Jun-2014 08:15 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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The 1989 should be read as 1998 which is the year that El-Nino was most severe
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| 09-Jun-2014 19:59 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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This is the early days of the El-Nino where prediction is only 70%.. it still have 2 to 3 months to go before more accurate prediction can be certain.. by then full EL Nino would have developed. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ We all know that when El-Nino is here, it will not only affect fish catch but also fish meal production. In 1989, the fish meal production dropped from 200 to about 60.. 
However, that El-Nino in 1989 was not the only problem.. the problem was that the fish meal production have not been recovered since then.. and Copeinca' s former management knew this.. 
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| 09-Jun-2014 17:24 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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The El-Nino is already here with NEA predicting weak to moderate El-Nino to occur in the next few months. Many of our corals at seas are being bleached and they are dying from the warmer weather. We have also experencing not only hot weathers but also more storms and rains that did not cool our temperatures in Singapore or Western part of the Pacific. These are all because of the El-Nino. Everyone is guessing now how serious will be this El-Nino compared to the 1989 El-Nino. Unlike 2 months ago, no one will say there might not be an El-Nino at all. Take care.. http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/hotter-waters-el-nino-could-kill-singapores-coral |
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| 09-Jun-2014 17:08 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Thought your intrinsci figure was $0.70 just about few months before? The trouble with intrinsic calculation basically requires one to project what is the future growth for the next 5 to 10 years. Many formula assumed a linear straightline growth of 10% and the result is usually better than it looked. Copeinca is now facing a serious test.. that an El-Nino that is going to be worse than 1989. This El-Nino will last till 2015. There may be disastrous events in which billions of losses will likely to happen damaging properties and affecting the fishery catch. In 1989 alone, Peru&rsquo s 7% GDP or over $2 billions were lost due to El-Nino. Annual catch was reduced by 80% to about 1.2 millions from an average of 3 millions. The effect was so severe that the Peruvian government restrict fishing quotas. Seasonal bans were introduced to allow fish to spawn and this was dreaded by most fishermen today. China Fishery was fined recently for catching the juvenile anchovy and then dumping into the sea and spotted by the Peruvian Inspectors. Just wondering what would the intrinsic calculation tells us if we were to assume that the growth of Copeinca might be a negative figure for year 2014/15 and thereafter, taking a few years to nurse the losses?
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| 08-Jun-2014 17:54 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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The link http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748704322804576302813788597234 |
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| 08-Jun-2014 17:52 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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| 07-Jun-2014 19:33 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Moody said Andes owns only 46.5% of China Fish only? who is correct? https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-China-Fisherys-postponed-redemption-of-Copeinca-bonds-has-no--PR_301252 The company is 46.5% effectively owned by the Pacific Andes group, through Pacific Andes International Holdings Ltd (PAIH), a Hong Kong-listed integrated fish and seafood products processor. The Carlyle Group, a global alternative asset management firm, holds an 11.1% stake in China Fishery. If CF' s debt/ebitda is more than 4.0, it will be B2 rating.. now it is 5.5.. and this was the adjusted debt/ebitda..after accounting those not normally accountable.. the normal debt/ebitda will be much higher.. Andes has improved its debt/ebitda this year after having sold Tasle and earn a bit more but its debt is still high. If Moody has a credit rating for Andes, it will also be B2 rating..not sure how much Andes can help CF and if Andes' s shareholders prepared to " bail out" CF if CF is having trouble. CF deferred its Copeinca bond payment due to cash flow. The bond holders were disappointed thinking that the bridging loan was recently for redeemping the bonds...Moody was kind in their wordings..the bond prices must have slumped.. https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-China-Fisherys-postponed-redemption-of-Copeinca-bonds-has-no--PR_301252 |
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| 07-Jun-2014 11:44 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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For those who have difficulties reading from undercurrent because the limit is reached.. just copy the title and google search.. once you find the item, click the small arrow next to address shown in google search, then select " Cache" .. you will see the undercurrent pages with no restriction. |
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| 07-Jun-2014 11:16 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Hi.. what was disclosed is only the 1st half, the 2nd half is more interesting not disclosed for some reasons. The 2nd part meant to say if the regulation is not relaxed, the catch would suffer.. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ &ldquo It is crucial that the legislation is updated as soon as possible, because otherwise our industry will suffer a severe contraction for sure,&rdquo Conterno warned. During the first season of 2014, which ends in less than eight and a half weeks, the sector has fished merely 25% or 625,980 metric tons out of a total quota of 2.53 million metric tons. SNP expects that the final catch could approach the 950,000 figure, missing out at least 28% of the catch limit. &ldquo The impact of the regulation put in place is too hard. Five years ago, Peru fished as much anchovy as Chile, but last year our captures were a third of what the Chileans caught,&rdquo said Conterno. The institute of studies of the sea in Peru, Imarpe, announced it has carried out an investigation over anchovy stocks and the effects of climate change. It is set to publish its conclusions by July. Imarpe noted that a high rate of juveniles would probably lead the government to maintain the 5-mile fishing restriction. |
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| 06-Jun-2014 16:29 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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The mother also not doing well... http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/05/27/pacific-andes-profit-dives-49-plans-to-further-consolidate-processing-ops/ |
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| 06-Jun-2014 16:19 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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Here is reason lah.. market reacting... This Fish tiok fine in Peru.. http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/05/30/peru-to-fine-exalmar-china-fishery-for-discarding-juvenile-anchovy/ |
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| 05-Jun-2014 10:52 |
Figtree
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Figtree
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FigTree had a Zombie sale and the brokers and institutions are not in a hurry to buy back the stock because they may have longer time than necessary to return the borrowed scripts.. may be one will have to wait longer to see the results.. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ How many times have we heard someone saying that it will be safe to buy this stock because it has very little float and there is only chance of it going up even if the credit rating of the stock is not good. One particular stock is the China Fishery. There are also many other stocks which recently had a zombie sale, like FigTree, SuperGroup, Blumont, Asiason, LionGold etc etc. One character that is most significant about these zombie sale is that the brokers and institutions are not in a hurry to buy back the stocks because they have borrowed the scripts longer than necessary..so when investing, do pay attention that there is no stocks that can be 100% safe unless we can be sure that there is no margins or CFD trades on the stock. Just wondering why MAS cannot regulate the Margins or CFD trades or CDP make up a list who have borrowed the scripts in big quantities and those who have such information would " huat" until baey lin chu.. think better join SGX or CDP.. Read more: http://pertama.freeforums.net/thread/668/stock-market-crash?page=1& scrollTo=5643#ixzz33jF001bU |
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| 05-Jun-2014 10:46 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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so you think this China Fish is very safe because it has very little float? ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ How many times have we heard someone saying that it will be safe to buy this stock because it has very little float and there is only chance of it going up even if the credit rating of the stock is not good. One particular stock is the China Fishery. There are also many other stocks which recently had a zombie sale, like FigTree, SuperGroup, Blumont, Asiason, LionGold etc etc. One character that is most significant about these zombie sale is that the brokers and institutions are not in a hurry to buy back the stocks because they have borrowed the scripts longer than necessary..so when investing, do pay attention that there is no stocks that can be 100% safe unless we can be sure that there is no margins or CFD trades on the stock. Just wondering why MAS cannot regulate the Margins or CFD trades or CDP make up a list who have borrowed the scripts in big quantities and those who have such information would " huat" until baey lin chu.. think better join SGX or CDP.. Read more: http://pertama.freeforums.net/thread/668/stock-market-crash?page=1& scrollTo=5643#ixzz33jF001bU |
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| 04-Jun-2014 09:05 |
China Fishery
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Yes.. it was.. out of the 800 lots traded yesterday, over 400 lots were from BBs and they were " sell down" ...let see if it would change to BBs buying up today.. |
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| 31-May-2014 08:57 |
China Fishery
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China Fishery - Low PE
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At the mean time, CF has a slight advantage that it is just beginning to enter a rise. Like before, it could be just a blip on the screen. Also, DOW has just formed a hangman pattern last night and it is at the very top ready to come down.. just awaiting confirmation. It would look very stupid now to take the risk with this CF.. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ The Commerce Department said on Friday that the consumer spending dipped 0.1 percent, which was the first decline since April 2013. The details also reflected that the inflation has finally crept up in the US. A separate report showed consumer sentiment slipped also in May as households worried about the income. However, these are all treated as temporary events by the traders as the US dipped in early hours of the trade and slowly picked up steam with DOW ending the Friday session at an all time high of 16717 or 18 points up.
However, technically, it is not too good a picture. DOW formed a hangman pattern while it is near the top of the Bollinger band indicating some degree of over-bought. This bring up the possibility that the bears are beginning to doubt that this rally can continue. They sent DOW down 50 points at the start but the bulls could only pull it back slowly over the day until it closed 18 points above Thursday' s close. As usual, candlestick pattern cannot always be interpreted with just one candle. The trend can only be confirmed if there is a down candle the next trading day. Better if a series of downward candles breaching the open price of Thursday' s candle at 16,637.  Read more: http://pertama.freeforums.net/thread/308/dj-economy?page=10& scrollTo=5560#ixzz33FaNVL8A |
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| 31-May-2014 08:42 |
China Fishery
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CF can hardly identified as stock with high return. Although it has crept up with 10-day return of 7% but its 20-day was negative 1.3%. If one were to examine further, the 3-month return is negative 5% and the 3 -year return is an alarming negative 58%.. if this is a high return stock, then stock such as SingPost, SPH, SingTel and many others can be consider what, may I ask? This CF is definitely a high risk and low return stock.. it has been much less than what I put in CPF with a guaranteed 2.5% return.
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